March 31, 2020
Tips

Warwick Farm (Wed)

Kensington

Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed Mar 25th

We will be at Warwick Farm this Wednesday

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 5m 1000m-winning post. Out 3m the remainder.

Best Bet: Race 5 – GOOD STOCK

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Race 1: 2YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights Maiden 1100m

Tough race with only three of the ten been to the races previously. DAMAGED (2) looked good on debut at Randwick but did have every chance op on the speed, he was sent straight to the paddock and has won a recent trial here at his home track in the heavy going.

Dangers:

Too hard. Watch the betting with the first starters, in particular NEVER NEVER RIVER (6) from the Gerald Ryan yard and CODEBREAKER (1) trained by Mark Newnham. FORMENTERA (3) for Gai and Adrian next best, he was ok on debut up on the speed and has trialed fairly for his return.

Race 2: 2YO Fillies Set Weights Maiden 1100m

Another race for the babies where it will be near impossible without seeing them first and as always, the money tells a good story. There has been very good money for the Godolphin first-starter RAISON D”ETRE (9), HEROESS (5) from the Snowden yard has been very good at the trials winning one recently and one back in November. MISS CANADA (8) has been runner-up at both career starts, she was brave in defeat when resuming after being forced to cover plenty of ground without cover. XYLAROO (12) was good at the back-end of her debut at Canterbury without really threatening, like most of Waller’s, she will be improved off the fresh run.

Race 3: Maiden Plate Set Weights 1300m

BATTLEGROUND (3) will start the shortest priced favourite of the day, he was runner-up on debut at Canterbury then went to Gosford for the Guineas at Listed level and ran on well into second in a much harder race. Has trialed well and this looks a put-in take-out job.

Dangers:

ACTIVATION (2) had trialed well going into his debut at Kembla three weeks ago, he got a mile back in the run and was really good late in a race where it was favoured to be up on the speed. TWICE AS SPECIAL (9) placed two back then ran on well from a mile back at the latest. Love the jockey change with Marquand going on. FLINDERS (5) probably needs further but can run on into a minor placing.

Race 4: BM76 Handicap 2400m

This looks the toughest race on the card and there may be only a couple I would be willing to say had no chance. CORNCAKE (3) had been racing well enough on the heavy tracks and really appreciated getting back on top of the ground last time. He was back in the run before a mid-race move saw him up outside the speed, stuck without cover he was super I the run to the line to win. This looks no harder?

Dangers:

Most of them. CASTEL SANT’ANGELO (4) comes through the same race as the top pick at Kembla last time, he led and was gunned down after having the easier run. The blinkers come off, should be hard to run down again. SACRAMENTO (7) has won two on the bounce since resuming at Queanbeyan and Canberra, both by big margins when setting the speed. Not sure he will be first across to the rails here though? PARRY SOUND (6) next best in what looks a very even race.

Race 5: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m

GOOD STOCK (6) resumed at Canterbury and had to work early before getting the front, he stuck on well in what has turned out to be a good form race. He then came here to Warwick Farm last start and led all the way, he bolted in by almost 2 lengths and never looked like getting run down. A soft lead again should see him bobbing at the finish.

Dangers:

KAVALMO (9) never looked like winning when resuming but was good from the back, looks suited getting out to the 7 furlongs and was a winner second-up last campaign. CHAT (2) has been up for a long time, he looks the leader off the inside gate. He looked the winner in the Canberra Guineas last start after kicking for home but was run down late. This is no harder. SURREAL STEP (3) won an easier race at Gosford when resuming, he didn’t get into the race at Kembla second-up after getting back and looking for runs. Can improve with the blinkers going on for the first time.

Race 6: BM78 Handicap 1100m

MILITARY MAGIC (9) was undefeated through her first three starts. She was ridden just behind the speed to win her first two then led all the way against the girls at BM80 grade at the last run before going to the paddock. She was very good in a recent trial and gets in very light with the claim.

Dangers:

WITHERSPOON (5) won when resuming, she has led at her last two and been run down, just a matter of how much work she will have to do early and will she be able to cross to the rail? Happy to lay her in the run if she sits parked and back her if she leads. SEGALAS (3) is very consistent, she was back and wide before running on to score when resuming then again was good here last time after showing a good turn-of-foot. Just needs to be saved for one run. OMAR (8) is resuming off a 5-week break, he volte din at a recent trial. He is better than his last couple of runs suggest.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1200m

FEATHER (9) is a last start winner in this grade but has had 7-weeks between runs. She has the wide draw but will be getting back in the run anyway. She was well beaten in a trial recently but wasn’t pressured, she gets in well with the claim. See how the track is playing this late in the day, look for her late if the back-markers are not disadvantaged.

Dangers:

IRISH SONGS (7) placed in a Country Champs heat last start at Moruya, he has been up a long while but is still racing consistently. Five weeks between runs should freshen him up, who knows how long we will keep racing so why not get another few starts in! JETSKI (4) looks to have come back from the paddock well, he was last at Kembla before weaving a passage and running on too well to score. This is harder but he does have a good record second-up. BEACH BABY (5) has won three in a row, he obviously had issues as he had more than a year on the sidelines before resuming with a win at Goulburn. Up in class but he certainly knows how to find the line.

Race 8: BM76 Handicap 1600m

CISCO BAY (5) is deep into his preparation but did have 5-weeks between runs before last start here at the track. He had a soft run behind the leaders before angling clear, loomed up to win but was run down late. He maps well again and gets the addition of the blinkers, he looks a great bet.

Dangers:

LOVESEAT (8) is a recent trial winner and has placed at two of three previous fresh runs. She is likely to want further and it is a tough ask getting them ready first-up at a mile, not often you see this yard do it? Watch the betting for any confidence. MIYAKE (11) won his maiden brilliantly when settling well back two starts ago, he showed he has a good turn-of-foot when saved for one run. Has trialed ok, he will improve on what he does here next start when second-up. KAAPFEVER (3) won a similar class race last start after running on from a mile back, he had been poor at two runs prior to that. Probably needs all the luck from the inside draw as he will get back.

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