Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed Mar 11th
We will be at Warwick Farm this Wednesday
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 2 – ASTRALIS
Race 1: 2YO Maiden Handicap 1000m
As always with these babies races it’s a tough ask with so many unknowns. 6 of the 10 are lining up for the first time.
WAR MEMORIAL (1) only had the one start before going to the paddock, he was well favoured to win on debut at Doomben at Listed level but ran third after having every chance. He has since been gelded and looked brilliant winning a recent trial. DENIKI (6) led for a long way at debut at Gosford and was only grabbed in the last stride with a big gap back to third. Drawn well and Berry rides again, will be hard to run down. As always watch for any serious betting moves with those coming to the races for the first time, in particular CHIANTI (8) and SO FAR AWAY (9).
Race 2: 3YO Maiden Set Weights 1400m
ASTRALIS (5) seems to handle the going well enough, she has placed at three of five career runs and one of those placings was on a heavy track at Canterbury when resuming. Last start she was slowly away and gave them a big start, was held-up early in the straight before producing the best last furlong of the race and was only narrowly beaten. Up in trip and with a better getaway, should be closer in the run.
GOOD STOCK (2) came through the same race as the top pick, he was up on the speed and got run down late but did his fair share of work in the early stages. Drawn out, he will be looking to get across to the rail first again. LA TIGRESA (7) never got in to the race from a mile back at Goulburn last start in an easier maiden, from the inside draw with the blinkers for the first time, hopefully she can settle closer. KINANE (3) had excuses on debut when beaten as favourite south of the border, he was sent straight to the paddock and changed stables, now with Chris Waller. Watch the betting with him.
Race 3: 3YO Maiden Set Weights 1200m
Keen to see the only first starter HAVEN (7) for the John Thompson yard. The daughter of I Am Invincible has been given plenty of time with four official trials dating back to June last year. The latest was a win at Randwick on rain affected ground, she gets a very winnable race here on debut.
BRABHAM (1) had a stack of trials dating back to an early 2YOp before finally making his debut at Newcastle. He was very well backed, over-raced, held-up late and probably should have won the race. Bowman takes the ride, expect he will be negative from the wide gate? EYE SEE THINGS (6) has placed at her first two starts, last time with the perfect sit and every chance. She gets the blinkers on for the first time, Avdulla should be pushing forward. If she finds the rail first, have a small bet in play. PERFECT IMPRESSION (8) is first-up, she hasn’t shown a lot in for runs but lobe the booking of Nash to ride and has trialed well enough.
Race 4: BM76 Handicap 1200m
INTREPIDACIOUS (2) will be making her own luck up in the speed. She sat outside the leader on a hit rail and stuck on well for second resuming. She then was again at Canterbury and again forced to do the work in the breeze, this time she was too strong. See how the track is playing early in regards to leaders.
THE MAN (9) has placed at his last two, he did look to have every chance last time but does get the inside draw here, the fence may be on fire? WILLOWHEART (10) resumed with a win in the heavy track at her first go out of maiden grade, she then was a little flat and had every chance in a harder race last time. Should be improved for the run and fully fit here third-up. SEGALAS (1) loves the wet tracks and was a good winner resuming, she produced the best closing sectional of the day in doing so. Look for her late.
Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1400m
HIGH LOW BET (1) is just a different horse on a heavy track, at the time of writing it is a Heavy 8. She bolted in here two starts back in similar conditions then ran on well to score on a sift track in this grade last time. Maps well, the wetter the better for her!
COMPATRIOT (7) was brave in defat behind the top pick last time, she was forced to sit three-wide no cover throughout and was still only beaten just under a length. She maps better here. PHEMONOE (2) has only been defeated once in three starts, she was placed on a heavy track when resuming. She was beautifully ridden to win an easier race last time, will be interesting to see how Hughie rides her from the wide gate. GOT YOUR SIX (12) was poor resuming but she is better than that, she had trialed well going into that run and handles the wet. No doubt she will be positive from the Gai/Bott camp.
Race 6: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1400m
Tough race! TWO BIG FARI (5) has not finished further back than second in five career starts. He has the wide gate to overcome but will be sent forward early, the blinkers are off coming off a brave Highway win. PAULO PACE (4) was forced back to the trials after being the first beaten last start. He was forced to sit three-wide no cover and is obviously better than that. He has handled the wet tracks well previously. CREATOR (3) will probably want further and may need the run but has some class. He was going around in much harder races last prep, beaten by the likes of Alligator Blood and Warning. MR WONG (8) won a Highway when resuming then was only fair behind the top pick last time. He maps to get a soft run and gets a weight turnaround.
Race 7: BM76 Handicap 1600m
NEW ARRANGEMENT (6) could be the most interesting runner of the day. The Waller trained gelding is having his first Australian start with JMac riding. He won 2 of 4 in the UK, one of them by a massive 14 lengths! First-up for 20 weeks, look for any support in the betting.
LEWIS (11) was poor resuming after sitting outside the speed, this looks no harder and can handle the sting out of the ground. He maps well and should be a big improver. CISCO BAY (8) is coming off a 5-week freshen-up and back in trip from the 2000m, he loves the soft conditions with 5 wins on rain affected going. He maps to get a soft run and should hit the line as good as any.
NICOCHET (15) is a dual acceptor, if he gets a start here as the first emergency he comes right into calculations. A lot will depend on if they come for the import or not.