November 15, 2019
Tips

Warwick Farm (Wed)

Newcastle

Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed Oct 23

We will be at Warwick this Wednesday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 3 – STATUESQUELY

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Race 1: 3YO Maiden Handicap 1400m

Tough race to start the card, not all that worried about the two debutants though. BONDI BLUE (5) didn’t show much at his first two starts before going to the paddock. He resumed at Randwick and ran into second, although well beaten it was a gap job to third. The blinkers go on for the first time.

Dangers:

DAUMIER (2) did plenty wrong on debut but ran on well, he was sent to the paddock and has won a trial recently. Nash Rawiller goes on. COCK MATCH (1) is a 7-start maiden, he won’t know himself back in this grade after going around in the Stan Fox last start at Group Two level. He has good tactical speed. DOWN TO EARTH (6) comes through the same race as the top pick last time, he had to work early and will go forward again from the wide gate.

Race 2: BM74 Handicap 2400m

BREAKDANCE (3) is on the 7-day back-up, he was easy I the betting here last week but was dominant, the extra 200m looks to suit. He should be up on the speed for a long way, if he gets some easy sectionals in front, go again in the run.

Dangers:

KENTUCKY DIVA (4) looks the only danger, she had no luck two back then was here two weeks ago and charged home from a mile back with the best sectionals late. FAIRLIGHT (2) has had two runs back and should be rock hard fit today, he was running around in harder races last prep. DESERT PATH (1) comes through a similar form line, made good ground last time in a race dominated by the on-pacers.

Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM76 Handicap 1400m

It looks a race in two, a lot will depend if the money comes for STATUESQUELY (6) for the Gai/Bott team resuming as to how confident I will be come race time. She got right out to the mile to contest the Sunshine Coast Guineas at her last start, she has trialed well enough twice recently. She should lead for a long way.

Dangers:

SAKURA (4) looks the main danger, she ran on hard to get up in an easier race last time and the blue team is going well. Look for her late. GUISE (2) has trialed fairly, she won her only other fresh run that was on debut. She was right out to 1900m last prep but was very consistent, she hasn’t missed a place in her 6 career starts. Look for her late. LISDOONARVA (1) is a six-time winner including last start against the girls in easier grade, she will also be giving them a start.

Race 4: BM74 Handicap 1600m

TRICKY GAL (1) is an early scratching from the previous race, a good lead for the Magic Albert filly that has only tasted defeat once in 5 career starts, she ran second at the other. A little worrying that she doesn’t have much tactical speed, will be giving them a start but has shown she can take the next step. If everything goes right, she will be finishing too well.

Dangers:

SOLDIER OF LOVE (5) had some support at huge odds last start when resuming, he was held-up at a vital stage before hitting the line well and probably almost should have won. BULLET FLY (7) won at Hawkesbury two back then never really got into the race last time at Randwick from back in the field. COSTAS (8) hit the line well from a mile back last time and has placed second-up. He should be fitter here.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1000m

APPIAN WAY (10) won her maiden to begin this prep and has placed at two of three since then. She stuck on well after working early against the girls last time, love the jockey change with Berry going on. Expect that he will be pushing on early looking for the top.

Dangers:

TRUMBULL (3) produced the best closing sectionals of the race last start after running into trouble early in the straight. He was caught up on the fence looking for runs before powering home late when finally clear inside the final furlong. He is a dual acceptor for the last race as well. LUCY ROSE (2) has a terrific record fresh winning 4/7, she has good tactical speed and should be booting through early off the inside gate. STEPHAN (1) is also resuming and hasn’t missed a place at three previous fresh runs, he is certainly the class of the field, beaten as favourite in the Wagga town plate last start before going to the paddock.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1400m

ZOUOLOGIST (13) is resuming, he has a win and a placing from 2 previous fresh runs. He is a winner here at the track when resuming last prep, sat up outside the speed and made his own luck. He is drawn perfectly today, should be on the speed for a long way in an open race.

Dangers:

LIVE THE MOMENT (11) has the fitness edge with four runs this time in. He won resuming on the synthetic track, then has three straight runner-up finishes to his name going into this. KING HEWITT (10) gets the blinkers on for the first time, he didn’t get out until early in the straight when resuming and hit the line well. He will have to improve on his poor second-up record though. FOREIGN TERRITORY (3) was having his first run at his home track when resuming, he was forced to sit three-wide no cover on the speed and didn’t shirk the task late. He has won second-up previously.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1200m

Tough race and a lot will depend on if TRUMBULL (1) comes here or goes to the earlier race. I prefer him here at the 1200m, but he is drawn out so we will need to wait until race morning. VEDDER (8) should go forward and be on the speed, he over-raced badly last time and looks suited going back onto a good surface. ZOUSHACK (10) travels back up the Hume after doing all his racing in Melbourne this prep, he is going through the grades nicely and was unlucky at his latest not to make it three on the bounce. JETSKI (11) won at his first attempt out of maiden grade last start making it consecutive wins, he was held-up early in the straight before running over the top of them from a mile back. Look for him late.

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