August 21, 2019
Tips

Warwick Farm (Wed)

Canterbury

Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed Aug 14

We will be at Warwick Farm this Wednesday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – LIFETIME QUEST

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Race 1: 3YO Maiden Handicap 1300m

Tough race to start with the newly turned 3YO’s, more than half the field will be lining up for the first time. HULK (1) was runner-up at two of his first four starts, raced in Black Type and has been gelded in his time in the paddock. He has trialed well enough and you know there will be money for him at some stage.

Dangers:

Obviously you must respect any money for those on debut, in particular CONTAGNO (3) who has trialed well and REFORMIST (8) who is a Waller stablemate to the top pick. LIVING ROCKS (9) is also from the same yard, she was good late through the line when runner-up on debut against the girls. This is harder.

Race 2: 3&4YO BM64 Handicap 1600m

FRONT SIGHT (1) won his maiden three back at Wyong convincingly when up on the speed, the last couple he has been camped on the leaders and hit the line well in harder races than this. With the good claim and the perfect draw, he gets the same run and has run well here at the track previously.

Dangers:

There looks to be only two other chances on paper. ACHONDRITE (2) comes through the same race as the top pick and had no luck, she should have nearly won the race. The concern with her is the inside gate, she can over-race a little which may be the case if cluttered up on the inside. ALMERHERI (3) looks the other winning hope, she has been good at two runs this campaign and may be able to control the tempo of the race coming across from the wider draw. LE LUDE (6) next best but for the minors only.

Race 3: BM70 Handicap 2200m

WAKA (3) has the wide draw to overcome, but you feel that Hughie will just ease her out of the gates and find cover in the second half. She has won two in a row, both of them when showing a great turn-of-foot and the latest was in this grade at this track and distance. If she is saved for one run and gets the right cart into it, she looks a good thing.

Dangers:

CASTEL SANT’ANGELO (8) will be up on the speed, off the inside gate he may have to be used early but there is no better front running jockey in the land than Tim Clark. If he gets it soft in front, maybe a saver mid-race for the in-play punters. MAKDANIFE (6) has been up for an eternity, they have been varying the tactics with him but I expect him to be mid-field or better here. A little worrying that this is the sixth different rider in the last six starts though. ANARCHY (9) has been ok at her last couple, happy to wait until she gets her first Australian win though before my money is on.

Race 4: BM72 Handicap 1400m

LIFETIME QUEST (6) has not missed a place from his 7 career starts, three of them this prep. He is stepping up to the 1400m for the first time which looks ideal, he has the tactical speed to lead and it looks as though he may get a few soft sectionals. He also gets back on a good track for the first time this prep, a surface that he won his maiden convincingly on.

Dangers:

OBELOS (3) is an interesting runner, the Ex-European will also want to go forward in his attempt to win in Australia for the first time, but I don’t think he will want to be in a speed battle first-up. KING HEWITT (4) is also resuming, he has won fresh previously but a little worrying that he only had the one run last time in and has had another 4 months off. His trials have been ok without being brilliant. PERFECT PITCH (9) ran on hard with some nice sectionals from the back here at the track against the girls last time, this is harder.

Race 5: BM72 Handicap 1200m

RIVIERA (10) is still yet to win out of maiden grade which she did on debut, but I like the fact Avdulla jumps back on and the blinkers are added for the first time. He drops a stack in weight back to 53.5kgs, a weight she carried two starts back when a close up placing in a harder race at Canterbury. Don’t be surprised to see Avdulla ride her positive with the gear change from the wide gate.

Dangers:

It looks an open race. TENORINO (8) has been very consistent, he has good tactical speed but just needs to settle better than he did last start. BEL DIABLO (6) had his first city win last time, he also has pace and will be looking for the front. LENINGRAD (2) gets the blinkers off and has been gelded over the 71 weeks he has been away from the track, he has only been fair at the trials which is odd for this stable but is a must for all exotics and Quaddies.

Race 6: 4YO and Up BM70 Handicap 1600m

DA POWER (7) has step up in grade but the ease with which he won a 58 grade at Muswellbrook last time can’t be ignored. He sat up on the speed, dashed to the front early in the straight and bolted in by more than 3 lengths with another length and a half to third.  Sure, this is much tougher competition but if Hughie can get him to settle outside the leader, he may be able to accelerate away turning for home and be very hard to run down.

Dangers:

KNOWITALL JACK (1) placed on the heavy track resuming then stuck on well when leading all the way to narrowly win last time. He was easy in the betting that day and did carry 4kg less than what he does today, he can certainly win but can see him drifting close to jump. FLYING PIERRO (4) was good at Canterbury last time, on the seven-day back-up he will need everything to go right as he will get a mile back from the draw. SEEL THE DEEL (8) had won two in a row to start this prep, he was beaten a long way here last time but copped a check at a vital stage, forget that run.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1100m

As is usually the case with these fillies and mares races that we have ending the cards more often than not, it looks a lottery. Play very wide in the Quaddie and that % will have to take a hit. SPANISH DREAM (1) didn’t miss a place in her five runs last prep, has a good record fresh and has trialed well. INTREPIDACIOUS (6) stuck on well from on the speed to win at Hawkesbury and was actually coming away late. MAKING WHOOPEE (7) led all the way at maiden level last time but will find this harder, she has the added advantage of fitness on her side over her main rivals though. BALLISTICA (9) is also resuming, she has trialed well but will be giving them a big start here and need all the favours. Tough race, many more chances than that also!