Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed May 1
We will be at Warwick Farm this Wednesday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 3 – EMBRACER
Race 1: 2YO Handicap 1200m
Tough race to start the day with 5 of the 11 coming to the races for the first time. Of those that have raced, DIAMOND THUNDER (1) looks the best of them, he won at Hawkesbury last start at maiden grade after a perfect ride on the speed. HULK (2) was close-up at the Valley on debut then went to a Blue Diamond Prelude, was very green and pulled up lame behind I am Immortal. He comes north and resumes off an 11-week break. Watch the money. Of the un-raced, watch for any positives in the betting, especially from
BORN TO PLAY (8) and RIGEL (5).
Race 2: Mares BM70 Handicap 1200m
MONTRACHET (1) has only had short campaigns early in her career, she resumes here off a nice trial at Canterbury last week. She looks suited by the small field, she chased around the best of her age group this time last year, she clearly has the ability.
LEAMI ASTRAY (2) was up for a long time last prep but was very consistent, she goes well fresh and should be camped right on the leaders. ALNAAS (3) always needs luck with her style of getting back in the run. She is fresh here and has placed at 2 of 3 when resuming, if they go crazy up front she will be in the finish. ONE FIRE BEACH (6) is resuming, she hasn’t won out of maiden grade and didn’t show much in her short prep last time, but she has trialed well enough. The small field looks a tough race to assess.
Race 3: 3YO Maiden Plate Set Weights 1100m
EMBRACER (2) is a Sebring colt on debut for the Waterhouse/Bott yard, he bolted in at a recent Randwick trial and led throughout in his most recent effort in preparation for this. He looks very forward and gets a winnable race.
HOSTWIN SUPREME (3) was only fair resuming at Gosford when he was beaten as favourite. He went to the trials and performed well enough, he is better than that run fresh. PHOENIX RIVER (4) has had seven weeks between runs, he got home ok here at the track when last in work but happy to take him on if he is near the top of the market. PURE FAITH (9) is on debut for Richard Freedman and has won two trials recently. He looks ready to go.
Race 4: 3YO BM66 Handicap 1300m
ZOUOLOGIST (1) won his maiden here a fortnight ago, he sat outside the leader and was way too strong as an even money favourite. This is obviously harder but if he can get on the bunny again and control the speed, he will be hard to run down.
REELEM IN RUBY (3) has won or placed at all four of her four career starts, she narrowly missed here at that same meeting a fortnight ago after being vetted at the barrier. She draws wide and not sure where she gets to, but she will find this easier. SINGING SAND (6) is a Godolphin filly resuming, she won her maiden here when in behind the speed. Her trial was only fair, watch the betting. GLAMOUR CAT (7) won on debut at a Hawkesbury maiden three weeks ago, she was held-up early before running on hard late. There has been a winner come from that maiden since so the form has held-up well.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 2100m
CARIF (2) will probably be the shortest priced favourite of the day, and deservedly so. He bolted in at a Newcastle maiden three back, went to Rosehill and wasn’t beaten far behind the eventual Derby winner, then went to a Group Three at Randwick two weekends ago and was beaten 4 lengths after losing a plate. Back to a BM70 here, he settles mid-field and runs past them in the straight.
MRS MADRID (6) wasn’t beaten far in that same Group Three, she had a much better run in transit in behind the speed. She did beat the top pick home but she doesn’t map nearly as well here. CHIEF KIDDER (9) is on the weeks back-up, needs to relax better and
DREAM BUILDER (5) is a last start winner and will certainly run the trip.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1600m
RESTRAINED (2) won his first three starts, none of them buy a huge margin, but all were convincing on the line. She was wide throughout on the soft track two back then came here last time and ran on hard late to place. She was inconvenienced very late that day, she just needs the right cart into it and loses nothing with McEvoy going on.
MYSTIC HILL (6) has won three in a row since getting rolled as a short-priced favourite on debut, she will also get back so the tactics between these two may be the difference. The horse making the run will probably be giving the other the perfect cart into it. VEGA (7) has been up forever it seems, gets the inside draw and will run its usual honest race, he will need luck from the draw though. KAAPFEVER (8) gets the blinkers back on and as always with the Joe Pride yard, money talks
Race 7: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1200m
RONSTAR (1) resumed here a fortnight ago in a similar race, he looked to have every chance after getting the gun run but was still coming on the line. Getting out to the 1200m and a wider draw suits, if he gets cover a pair or two back, he will be able to make that run sooner.
UP TRUMPZ (8) has been very consistent this time in and has a fitness edge over his main rivals, he will get a cheap run mid-field on the fence and will just need luck, hopefully the track is playing fair inside to out. TCHAIKOVSKY (2) resumes off a 3-month break a little lighter than how he went to the paddock (he has been gelded), he has shown ability but needs to improve on his first-up record. DESTINY’S OWN (3) has also been gelded and gets the blinkers off, also trialed well enough but may need further.