Warwick Farm (Sat)

Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 4 – BRUTAL

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Race 1: Lonhro Plate 2YO Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

TIME TO REIGN (1) has won both of his race starts, showed great speed and led throughout at both of them. He has been off the scene for 14 weeks but has shown that he is right on the mark with a nice trial win here at the Farm in late January. He is on a mission for bigger things than this and should be winning, albeit at short odds, should be SP’ing close to even-money.

Dangers:

BIVOUAC (2) looks the main danger, he debuted behind the top pick and ran on well in the worst part of the track, he then resumed on Australia Day and ran on well without threatening. He will have taken plenty from that fresh run, watch the betting. COSMIC FORCE (3) has only been to the races once, he won on debut at Newcastle in a much easier maiden back in November before going to the paddock. He was pushed out in a recent trial to win and looks set to go fresh. STEEL DIAMOND (7) is an interesting runner that is on debut, she has trialed well enough and is on her home track.

Race 2: Highway Class 3 Handicap 1200m

NOBLE BOY (2) is resuming off a 10-week break, he is undefeated at three career starts and was a lasts tart winner in a Class 2 Highway event. He doesn’t have great tactical speed but what he does have is a motor, he will be giving them a start and charging home.

Dangers:

STAR BOY (1) was resuming at Randwick over 1000m last start, it was advised that he would be ridden closer to the speed but settled well back, he was ok late and did appear in the steward’s report with a problem. Expect that he will go forward up to the 1200m from the wide draw. SUNLIT (8) travels down from the north coast, the Dunn stable must be respected every time they bring one to one of these Highway races. She has good tactical speed and looks to have plenty of upside. SAUSEDGE (9) is undefeated in two starts, he is resuming but bolted in at Wagga when leading throughout before going for a break. This is a lot harder, she is taking on the boys and the older horses so expect her to ease in the betting.

Race 3: BM94 Handicap 1000m

SHE KNOWS (4) has a terrific overall record, she may have a couple of sevens next to her numerical form at her last two starts before going to the paddock, but they were in harder races than this over the Flemington week. She raced on the first and last day of the carnival at Listed level following a close runner-up finish to the talented Eduardo previously. The concussion plates are off, she has placed at 2 of 3 fresh and draws well.

Dangers:

SINGLE BULLET (5) is racing consistently and has showed that he has the versatility to overcome a poor draw. He probably is ridden positively by Dolan from the wide gate, if he gets cover, he will be hard to hold out. SUPER TOO (3) has won 2/5 when resuming as she is today, she bolted in at a recent trial here by 15 lengths where she was pushed along early, they look like they have her ready to go fresh. BADAJOZ (2) changed the tactics when beaten in the summer sprint behind Single Bullet a month ago, they rode him closer that day and he over-raced badly. Needs to settle better to win.

Race 4: Eskimo Prince Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

If BRUTAL (2) is ready to go off a 21-week break, he looks one of the bets of the day. He has won all three career starts, they will probably want to take him on as it is his first go the Sydney way and is first-up, but anything in black figures looks over the odds. He has the speed to overcome the draw, it would probably be preferred if he got to the spot outside the leader and was able to control the race from there. He has trialed well.

Dangers:

If the late money comes from him, he looks a put-in take-out job. CHARGE (3) is a winner here at the track where he broke his maiden status, he has speed and is a last start winner south of the border before going to the paddock. SANDBAR (1) is an experienced 3YO with 9 starts already to his name, he has won both when resuming and has trialed well. Drawn out and considering he will be giving the favourite a start fresh, he looks a huge risk. GEM SONG (6) may want further, has trialed well but may just need some luck from the inside draw. He is a must for the exotic bets but very happy to take him on at single figures over the 6 furlongs fresh against some of these speedsters.

Race 5: 2019 Inglis 3YO Sprint Set Weights 1100m

ESTIJAAB (7) is the reigning Golden Slipper winner resuming, she has won all but one of her four career starts and bolted in at her only first-up run on debut by four lengths. She has a stack of speed, a little concerning that her first-up prep off such a long break has had a little hiccup when she lost the rider in the barrier trial last week, look for the late money to see if the yard watchers are keen.

Dangers:

FIESTA (8) was well beaten in the Caulfield Guineas when last in work, she flies fresh and has trialed well. Schofield on? What to make of that is up to you? LOGAN RIVER (6) gets the soft trip from the inside draw, he will be huge odds but he was so impressive at the sapphire Coast last week. He had the similar run in behind the speed before exploding away, the margins were 3x5!! ROYAL CELEBRATION (1) has not finished further back than 2nd at his 7 career starts, he is also resuming and has placed at his previous 2 second-up runs. He has had a very soft trial in preparation for this.

Race 6: Breeders Classic Mares 1200m

CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES (4) doesn’t win out of turn but is very consistent, she has only missed a place at 2 of her 15 career starts. She has placed at all three second-up runs as she is today, her run was super up the straight resuming, she was just off the pace but really hit the line well with the best late sectionals in the race.

Dangers:

EGYPTIAN SYMBOL (3) went to the Gold Coast for the sales restricted sprint, she got back and charged home at huge odds and looks to have come back well. She will be giving them a start once again, look for her late. TELEPLAY (6) is resuming and has won at both of her first-up starts, she will also be giving them a start and looks to have plenty of upside. ALASSIO (9) takes a huge step up in class here off her last start 78 grade win against the girls, she usually likes to race on the speed but hard to see her getting cover.

Race 7: Inglis Millenium 2YO Set Weights 1200m

ACCESSION (1) was most impressive off a 5-week break at Rosehill, he was on the speed but briefly held-up before accelerating hard to run away at the 300m mark to bolt in. He gets no favours from the draw but Hughie Bowman knows how to get the best out of one from an awkward draw, if he was drawn better, he would have been a clear favourite. Maybe the bad draw just gives us a better price?

Dangers:

DAWN PASSAGE (2) looks the obvious danger, he came from the clouds to bolt in on debut at Randwick but a little worrying that he was double figures that day. It was impressive but happy to risk him if he starts at the top of the market. ESPAANIYAH (7) won on debut, she may have been a little disappointing when well beaten by the favourite last time, but she had excuses. She has speed, she may be able to lead for a long way. PRETTY BRAZEN (12) comes through a different formline, she kept coming behind a smart one that races earlier in the day in Melbourne. Look how that horse Catch Me goes in the Blue Diamond preview to see how that formline holds up.

Race 8: Gardenia Handicap 1600m

Chris Waller holds the key here with what will probably be the clear top three picks in the market. Robbie Dolan is riding like a seasoned professional, he jumps on GRESHAM (8) off the good gate. Make sure the inside is not off in the earlier races, if it is ok, he should have all the options with his good tactical speed and will either try and lead all the way or take the sit behind them. Either way you can’t see him being more than a pair back in the run.

Dangers:

NEW UNIVERSE (9) is also drawn down towards the inside, he powered over the top to beat the top selection last time but does meet him worse at the weights here. TANGLED (5) is the third of the Waller runners that will start around the each-way odds mark, he ran on hard at Listed level last start after not having much luck in the run. He will be giving the other two a start but if they go at each other, he will be the one flying late. MORTON’S FORK (2) next best but will improve on what he does here fresh over further.

Race 9: 3&4YO BM78 Handicap 1600m

Love the way that SONDELON (5) maps in this. The big field will ensure that the fair share of horses will need luck in running, not him. He will jump and run, Tim Clark is one of the best in the business at rating on-pace horses and he will know when to pull the trigger. He was run down resuming but just looked to run out of condition, second-up at the mile, the same as he was at his first prep hen winning, he will be very hard to catch.

Dangers:

If he doesn’t get his own way in front, the winner could come from anywhere. RAPIDO CHAPARRO (4) is a stablemate to the top pick so I wouldn’t expect that he will be holding out the favourite, he does like to be up on the speed however so he should roll forward and may get the cold sit on him. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS (1) will get back from the wide draw, if they do go crazy in front, he showed enough last time when solid through the line at the back-end of the 1400m, the step up to the mile looks to suit. ZIDANE (7) will also get back, he hit the line well last time after coming with the winner to just miss. Look for him late.

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