Morphettville Tips, Saturday 14th April
Morphettville tips for Saturday racing
Best Race 5 no 8 HUSSYBAY
Value Race 3 no 1 YULONG MONOCEROS
Morphettville - Saturday, 14 April 2018
Track: Good. Weather: Fine (). Rail: Out 8m 1200m-W/Post; Out 5m the Remainder. Sectional 610m
Assessed for: - Good
Race 1 - UBET Handicap - BenchMark 90 - 2030 - 12:36
Top Pick: Chequered Flag (6)
Danger: Silent Warrior (3)
Each-way: Ceylon (2)
Velox (1), We're So Lucky (4), Flow Meter (7), Zimbali (8)
Race Comment: Must be said we find it impossible not to recommend a play here on Chequered Flag at the current $9….reckon that’s a potentially outstanding bet to start the day. Obviously Silent Warrior will be very hard to toss however happy to oppose at the very short $2.25. Ceylon ($4), Velox ($6.50) and Were So Lucky ($10) also all genuine chances however keep coming back to Chequered Flag at the big value.
Betting Confidence: 80%
Race 2 - Impending new to Darley in Victoria Handicap - BenchMark 70 - 1200 - 01:11
Top Pick: Over Exposure (3)
Danger: Twitchy Frank (4)
Trifecta: Broadband (2)
Multi: Counterplay (9), Danger Deal (11), Vinland (8), Debt Collector (7)
Race Comment: Over Exposure ($3.20) is the on top selection here however we see this race a lot more open than what the current market reads hence why we couldn’t possibly recommend at anything under $4. Suggest Twitchy Frank ($8.50), Broadband ($7.50) & Counterplay ($10) all represent much better value at the opening prices….monitor betting and even then don’t go overboard here….there are some much better opportunities later on in the day.
Betting Confidence: 65%
Race 3 - Dequetteville Stakes - Open - 1050 - 01:46
Top Pick: Yulong Monoceros (1)
Danger: Al Naifa (5)
Trifecta: Let Me Sleep On It (4)
Persuader (15), Music Bay (3), Black Champagne (10), Fundamentalist (6)
Race Comment: 2yo race with obviously minimal formlines to go by however if times/ratings mean anything Yulong Monoceros presents as an outstanding investment at the current $10. First-up win was terrific whilst also being far from disgraced behind some of the best 2yos in the land last prep….impossible not to have a real crack here! Also respecting Al Naifa ($6.50) whilst the Waterhouse trained visitor in Let Me Sleep On It ($15) also warrants close watching.
Betting Confidence: 85%
Race 4 - Hughes Limousines Handicap (Heat 7 Autumn Series) - BenchMark 82 - 1200 - 02:26
Top Pick: Handsome Thief (3)
Danger: Manuel (13)
Value: Morvada (5)
Multi: Arkham Knight (8), Nipperkin (7), This Kid Rocks (6), El Sicario (4)
Race Comment: Pretty much agree with the market here early on with both Handsome Thief ($2.70) and Manuel ($4.20) expected to fight this out hence why at the early prices we cant really recommend an early play on either runner. Will certainly be monitoring Morvada that resumes here from a lengthy spell….$34 does look far too big! Also respecting Arkham Knight ($10) that is also a genuine chance.
Betting Confidence: 70%
Race 5 - Dr Jack and Beth Rogers Handicap - BenchMark 90 - 1600 - 03:06
Top Pick: Hussybay (8)
Danger: Royal Rumble (3)
Trifecta: Burrum's Buzz (9)
Multi: Tradesman (4), It And a Bit (10), Mihany (2), Strategic Demand (6)
Tip Comment: Hussybay raced through the grades stringing together four wins on end last prep & indicated he had again returned just as well when producing a terrific placing. Maps ideally settling handy on what just appears an even tempo whilst also getting in with no weight...best bet! Royal Rumble don't be fooled what this blokes first two runs initially read on paper because they have both been full of merit. Much better suited here! Burrum's Buzz another capable of sharp improvement without surprising.
Race Comment: To put it mildly this is a standout race with odds allowing us to have a good play on all of our top three selections with Hussybay ($7), Royal Rumble ($8) & Burrum’s Buzz ($10) all reading as terrific value in our book. Basically what is allowing us to do this is the fact we see the favourite Tatoosh ($3.40) here as massive unders….lay of the day!
Betting Confidence: 90%
Race 6 - Holdfast Insurance Handicap (Heat 7 SA Sprint Series) - BenchMark 82 - 1050 - 03:46
Top Pick: One More Daisy (3)
Danger: Bullpit (4)
Trifecta: Desert Lashes (2)
Multi: Mystified (8), So You Too (1), Our Gladiator (5), Kabini (12)
Tip Comment: One More Daisy seriously improved mare that broke through for a much deserved win despite racing wide t'out last start. Gets race run to suit with a stack of pace engaged up front. Also love the fact she has since been freshened & that Stable have elected to claim-value! Bullpit another underrated sprinter that again appears to flying under the radar in early markets. Concealer formlines from two starts back now read huge for this! Desert Lashes likely leader capable of giving another big sight.
Race Comment: A race which we have identified with some potentially big early value with One More Daisy ($9) & Bullpit ($15) the two recommendations. Certainly a race where we will be having a solid dutch play on the two above mentioned runners.
Betting Confidence: 80%
Race 7 - Port Adelaide Guineas - Open - 1800 - 04:26
Top Pick: Civil Disobedience (1)
Danger: Leicester (6)
Each-way: Eshtiraak (5)
Multi: Mujaadil (11), Spring Choice (4), High 'n' Dry (10), Skillful Steps (3)
Tip Comment: Civil Disobedience Tas Derby winner two starts back that was considered good enough to travel over & contest NZ Derby last start. Started hard in the market as well before enduring a torrid run t'out when still far from disgraced. Has since been freshened hence not concerned with drop in trip. Tipping a Weir quin with the super honest Leicester expected to again feature prominently-big danger! Eshtiraak respecting the Hayes/Kah combo. Has proven ability & wouldn't shock to see sharp improvement.
Race Comment: Tough race. Having said that suggest Civil Disobedience is certainly worthy of an investment at the current $8. Basically if he can run up to his recent ratings he will win. The slight query is he has been freshened and is down slightly in trip however that could also be a positive. Leicester the danger however couldn’t possibly touch at the insanely short $2.45! Certainly recommend monitoring Eshtiraak…wouldn’t at all shock and is currently $10. Best roughie is Mujaadil at $26….far from hopeless!
Betting Confidence: 65%
Race 8 - Sepoy now standing at Darley in Victoria Handicap - BenchMark 70 - 1200 - 05:05
Top Pick: Exalted Adam (9)
Danger: Cosmic Lights (3)
Trifecta: Steel of Madrid (16)
Multi: Eclair Calling (18), Midnight Storm (17), Wasabi Bob (1), Astro Castro (7)
Tip Comment: Exalted Adam simply won't know himself dropping back sharply in grade from recent still solid efforts. Wide draw only query however reckon he can get in settling handy-is so will be extremely hard to run down! Cosmic Lights resuming. 1st-up specialist with all three previous career wins having come whilst fresh. from lovely draw, & also looks well placed, especially now Stable have elected to claim-clear danger! Steel of Madrid Vic visitor that is seriously flying-absolutely respecting!
Race Comment: On first appearances a tough race to round out the program however pretty keen to get involved now having seen what both Exalted Adam and Cosmic Lights have opened with $7 and $5 being bet about each other respectively…..definitely recommending ditching the pair or with a slight bias towards Exalted Adam at the prices.
Betting Confidence: 85%