Morphettville Tips, Saturday 10th February
Morphettville tips for Saturday racing
BEST BET Race 2 no 2 STRATEGIC DEMAND
VALUE Race 8 no 5 AFFRAY
Race 9 no 7 MANDEE
Morphettville Parks - Saturday, 10 February 2018
Track: Good. Weather: Fine (). Rail: Out 5 metres Entire. Sectional 606m
Assessed for: - Good
Race 1 - UBET Adelaide Cup Monday 12th March Handicap - BenchMark 82 - 2400 - 12:11
Top Pick: Andrea Mantegna (2)
Only Danger: Bondeiger (1)
Trifecta: Spy Decoder (6)
Multi: Flying Casino (5), Tunes (3), Palmera Lad (7), Wexford Town (4)
Race Comment: As odds would indicate Andrea Mantegna is clearly the one to beat having gone up $1.55. Should he be that short….absolutely! If able to be boosted with some of the Corps to around $1.70 then we suggest having a good lash here….they simply wont be beating him.
Betting Confidence: 99%
Race 2 - Holdfast Insurance Handicap - BenchMark 90 - 1400 - 12:46
Top Pick: Strategic Demand (2)
Lord Topper (4)
Trifecta: Mihany (1)
Abohar (3), Whistle Stop (5)
Race Comment: The market has this wide open with Lord Topper on top at $2.50 (far too short in our books). Strategic Demand on ratings alone presents as a clear on-top pick….so much so that the opening $3.90 presents a big value!! Absolutely impossible to ignore and certainly worthy of a decent gamble!
Betting Confidence: 90%
Race 3 - Schweppes Handicap - BenchMark 70 - 1300 - 01:21
Top Pick: Counterplay (7)
Danger: Infinity Queen (3)
Trifecta: Baker's Dozen (5)
Multi: Commanding Diva (6), Artful Rambler (1), Joy Flipper (4)
Race Comment: Probably the days most interesting runner here in Counterplay however bookies also agree having gone up $1.65. Given any sort of support expected to beat these comfortably however at this stage we will just be watching. Given any chinks in the favs armour then Infinity Queen is far from hopeless at $5.50.
Betting Confidence: 90%
Race 4 - Adelaide Galvanising Three-Year-Old Maiden Plate - Maiden - 1250 - 01:56
Top Pick: Port Vale (13)
Caribbean Wonder (2)
Each-way: Oh Mo (5)
Multi: Rocket Sox (11),
Tuckers Daughter (12), Light the Waves (9), Fearless Fighter (4)
Race Comment: Must be said far from the worlds most exciting race however must also be acknowledged there was a runner in this that was responsible for a simply huge last start run after blowing the start. Port Vale ($6.50) is that runner that plummets back in grade against this field of maidens. Certainly deserving of a crack against these.
Betting Confidence: 85%
Race 5 - Kevin Tracey Handicap - BenchMark 90 - 1000 - 02:31
Top Pick: Itz Invincible (1)
Danger: Certain Ellie (6)
Trifecta: Sullivan Bay (2)
Multi: Olivier (4), Ticket to Toorak (3), Niccoco (5)
Race Comment: Impossible to go past the flying Itz Invincible that is yet to miss a place in his 15 race starts to date. Returns from a terrific Listed placing over in Melbourne. Absolute professional/proven weight carrier….in short certainly couldn’t talk anyone out of taking the $2.10 however must acknowledge is certainly close to his right price. In saying that Certain Ellie ($8) is value.
Betting Confidence: 90%
Race 6 - Eckermann Conveyancers Handicap - BenchMark 75 - 1550 - 03:06
Top Pick: Star Fortune (3)
Danger: Game of War (6)
Trifecta: Enki (8)
Multi: Unbreakable (1), Dances On Stars (4), Aussie Jack (7), Lieder (5)
Tip Comment: Star Fortune expected leader that maps to get a picnic up front. Again gave usual big sight before being run down late last start against Open company...expected to relish the drop back to this much easier BM75! Game of War has plenty of ability on his day however can also mix his form. 3rd-up here & remembering did smash his rivals 3rd-up last campaign by 6.4L...must respect! Enki broke through for much overdue/deserved win two starts back before a beaten odds on fav last start-likely improver.
Race Comment: In short they map to absolutely walk up front here with Star Fortune likely to take up the running. Will take a stack of running down dropping back to this grade….definitely recommend taking the current $3.40.
Race 7 - James Boag's Premium Handicap - BenchMark 70 - 1000 - 03:46
Top Pick: White Kaps (7)
Each-way: With Hope (8)
Each-way: Tempting Faith (6)
Multi: French Rock (4), Iconic (1), Classy Jack (3), El Prado Gold (2)
Tip Comment: White Kaps speedy 3yo stepping up against the older gallopers for the first time. Gets welcome weight relief dropping down sharply below the min after claim & maps ideally to lead/leaders back from rails draw...expected to give a big sight! With Hope resuming. Lightly raced mare capable of producing some strong final sectionals. Two previous fresh runs both very good & looks to get race run to suit-absolutely respecting! Tempting Faith racing so consistently & another that will race on-pace.
Race Comment: Siding with the speedy White Kaps however certainly cant be tempted by the current $3.10. At this would much prefer to be on With Hope e/way at the opening $7….should be charging late! Tempting Faith ($10) also capable of giving a sight at seemingly generous odds.
Betting Confidence: 70%
Race 8 - John O'Neil OAM Handicap - BenchMark 75 - 1250 - 04:26
Top Pick: Affray (5)
Danger: Blue Tycoon (3)
Trifecta: Miss Identified (6)
Multi: Zalmona (4), France's Boy (7),
Rupture (9), Sawaiki (11)
Tip Comment: Affray thought this bloke was terrific when working home strongly late fresh when far from disgraced. Most interestingly 2/3 career wins previously have come 2nd-up, settles closer...rates a terrific e/way bet! Blue Tycoon on-pace type that comes off a strong 2nd-up all the way win under the steadier of 60kg. Again maps to go forward, surely only strips fitter again & looks to get in well dropping a whopping 5kg after claim. Miss Identified was simply huge last time out-needs pace up front!!
Race Comment: Open race however reckon Affray presents as nearly the best value bet of the day at the current $10….e/way all day! Blue Tycoon the obvious big danger however has been well found early at current $3.70. Miss Identified was enormous 1st-up…..given a stronger than expected tempo then the current $7.50 would also read well.
Betting Confidence: 75%
Race 9 - The Junction Handicap - BenchMark 64 - 1400 - 05:06
Top Pick: Mandee (7)
Danger: Betalyk (11)
Each-way: Silent Warrior (2)
Multi: Tycoon Sofie (10), Tahnee Tiara (6), Rowdy Richard (8), Two Odd Sox (9)
Tip Comment: Mandee nearing peak fitness having not been far away, despite having excuses in two runs back since resuming. 1st-up endured a tough run when never on the track when still far from disgraced before last time out not comfortable on the Soft track at Gawler. Her best ratings suggests she is better than these & looks to map ideally here. Betalyk has found the line nicely late in all three runs back-rises to 1400m looks ideal! Silent Warrior resuming. Has placed in 3/4 previously fresh-respecting!
Race Comment: Prepared to give Mandee another chance here, especially at the current $7 on offer. More than capable of being the big improver without surprising! Having said that could also be more than tempted by Betalyk($6)….especially if the backmarkers are making ground. Obvious claims to Silent Warrior ($4.80) whilst Tycoon Sofie($11) is certainly capable of giving a sight at odds.
Betting Confidence: 80%