Flemington (Sat)

Flemington Racing Tips

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 4m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – SEBERATE (Each-Way)

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Race 1: The Melbourne Cup Sale On Now BM90 1000m

DEMONSTRATE (2) had been knocking on the door for a win, he was beautifully ridden at the Valley to win in a race that looked to short for him, he was unlucky behind a smart one here up the straight previously. Looks hard to beat.

Dangers:

NASDEX (3) has good speed and led them up in a harder race here last time. Not sure where they will come as it is the first straight race of the day, the middle seems to be the norm nowadays. BEAU RADA (1) has been away from racing for almost a year, he will be getting home hard if he is ready for this. Although he does have a poor record here at the track. SUNDAY ESCAPE (4) will be out and running and giving them something to catch.

Race 2: Club Stand Handicap BM90 1800m

KINGS WILL DREAM (5) has only had three starts in Australia, he has been dominant winning all three and gets out to the 1800m here. He looks to have a stack of upside, will go through the grades nicely and gets another soft run here.

Dangers:

WHEAL LEISURE (6) was only fair resuming, she got well back in a race that was dominated by the leader but it was encouraging the way she ran through the line. She won last campaign second-up. SIN TO WIN (3) worked home well late fresh, should be getting a soft run mid-field on the rails. WILLI WILLI (7) is better than what he showed last start, he will go forward and try and lead all the way.

Race 3: The HKJC Trophy BM84 1400m

KING’S COMMAND (3) rarely runs a bad race, he has tactical speed and should roll forward from the wide gate. Even if he settles a little bit further back today, he has shown in the past that he is versatile and can run-on hard with the right cart into it.

Dangers:

DOWNHEARTED (9) looks the leader, see how the track is playing in the first two races. He will give a sight, his chanced will rely on how much work he has to do early. SIMPLY INVINCIBLE (11) is going through the grades nicely this prep, he is on the quick back-up and maps to get a soft run behind the leading pair. BURRUM’S BUZZ (4) is poorly drawn and doesn’t have a lot of brilliance but will keep grinding away from the first half of the field.

Race 4: Sires Produce 2YO 1400m

SEBERATE (5) was only beaten a little over 2 lengths by the eventual Blue Diamond winner in the Prelude, he got well back and charged through the line and looks suited out to the 7 furlongs. Has had a month off to freshen-up for this.

Dangers:

NASAAYIM (14) was a big winner last time and looks to have a future. She missed the kick, did things wrong in the run before balancing up and running on hard over the last furlong. She should get a beautiful run on transit once again. NOT A SINGLE CENT (12) is a maiden and has only had the one run, but the way he finished off was encouraging after having no luck. SANCTIMONIUS (2) was good in Sydney last start after a wide run, may have to do the same here and we know that is not a good formula at the 1400m at Flemington.

Race 5: Kewney Stakes 3YO Fillies 1400m

SUMMER SHAM (3) showed that she is the real deal last time, she had won her maiden and a BM70 in different fashion, came to Listed level at Caulfield and led throughout for a dominant win. A different story when coming o Flemington for the fi0rst time but she looks a real star of the future.

Dangers:

PALAZZO VECCHIO (7) came through that same formline and went into everyone’s blackbooks. She was held-up for a furlong at a vital stage before running on hard over the last 100m. Will need the favours again but look for her late. SHOKORA (8) ran on well in the Vanity last start, not sure how that race will hold-up as a form reference though. BELLA MARTINI (1) didn’t have a lot of luck last time, will need some here getting away from the inside in the straight, that may not be the place to be.

Race 6: Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m

Last years winner REDKIRK WARRIOR (1) has to carry the topweight but his win in the Black Caviar was superb. He loves the straight here at HQ, is drawn wide in what recently has been no disadvantage and should be charging again late.

Dangers:

CATCHY (15) gets in light, she ticks a lot of boxes here including being a previous winner up the straight and is a perfect 2/2 when second-up. She didn’t have a lot of luck fresh. SUPIDO (6) was ok fresh, loves it here up the straight and is drawn out, which may be advantageous. THRONUM (7) has speed but is dropping back in trip but looks well in back into handicap conditions.

Race 7: Matron Stakes Filllies and Mares 1600m

SHILLELAGH (1) looks much better suited here back against the girls after ok efforts at WFA her last couple since resuming. She was a winner here in the Spring over a mile, she has a good gate and should be camped 4th or 5th in the run.

Dangers:

SAMOVARE (3) and MONTOYA’S SECRET (2) both come through the same formline, the race was dominated by the leader that day and both were making ok ground late. SAMOVARE should be up on the speed while MONTOYA’S SECRET will be charging home. SPANISH REEF (5) has a super record here at the track, was a winner second-up last prep and should be running on hard.

Race 8: Australian Cup WFA 2000m

THE TAJ MAHAL (9) looks to have a stack of upside and looks to have a future here in Oz. He has been good at two runs since relocating to our shores, will be up on the speed and looks the big overs in early markets. It looks like Lloyd Williams has another one, I personally think this guy could be the star of his stable come the Spring.

Dangers:

GAILO CHOP (4) has been super at both runs back from a spell, he will once again be up on the speed and if he is left alone to control the tempo, he will be hard to run down again. ALMANDIN (2) only had the one-win last campaign and it came second-up, as he is here. He will get back, just needs a genuine tempo to make that one long winning run. HARTNELL (1) is consistent, he isn’t one of mine and it is hard to know where they will ride him, but he needs to be up on the speed for mine to have any chance.

Race 9: Incognitus Stakes 3YO 1100m

PREZADO (1) was disappointing a month ago in the Rubiton, he over-raced and found nothing when the jock asked. The start prior he was super here up the straight when narrowly beaten by Nature Strip, if he can reproduce that he can win this.

Dangers:

REGIMEN (3) is having its first run at the track here, he is also drawn inside which may be at a disadvantage for a run-on type like him. See what has been happening in the lead-up races as to whether the inside is off or not. FREEZE OVER (5) has speed and placed at its only start up the straight. She will be one of the leaders no doubt. PRETTY FAST (2) had a brilliant start to this campaign but e may be needing a break, will go forward.

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