Caulfield (Sat)

Caulfield Racing Tips

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 11m entire circuit.

Best Bet: RACE 6 – MOUNT KILCOY

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Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1200m

The key here probably lies with the two first-starters, BRUTAL (6) from the Hawkes yard and RONAN’S ROCK (7) from the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig stable. They are both sure to be well educated, watch for any support for either of them. HUMMA HUMMA (1) ran on well on the big track at Sandown to get her maiden win last time, look for her late again. MYSTIC JOURNEY (2) is an interesting runner, she won her first three in Tasmania before failing at Listed level. She resumes here and must be respected.

Race 2: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1200m

MISS NORWAY (3) was close-up in a race that featured many of these last time. She was a mile back, came very wide and was clearly finishing as good as anything when narrowly going under. There was money for her there at the double figure odds, she should drop out and charge late again.

Dangers:

JOSEPHINE SEA (4) comes through that same form line and also charged late, she started near the top of the betting that day. She maps to settle a little closer here today. ZARPOYA (2) was the winner of that race, she SP’d at huge odds but had to do work in the run so she is not without a chance of going back-to-back. ATLANTICA (6) has been good, winning two her three runs in SA this prep, the only failure was on a heavy track. She has good speed and will try and go forward and get on the speed.

Race 3: BM90 Handicap 1700m

MANTASTIC (14) is yet to miss a placing at his 5 career starts, he will get back but the way he has been finding the line has been impressive. I expect him to be easy in the market with his pattern of racing, so it may pay to wait until later in the betting to back him, but he will charge late.

Dangers:

RIB EYE (11) has been racing consistently this time in, he will also get back and the jock will need to keep an eye on the top selection as he probably doesn’t have as good a turn-of-foot as that galloper. QUICK DEFENCE (6) should settle closer this time from the good gate, he comes out of what will be a good form race going forward. ONPICALO (3) is not going great at the moment but on his best form he would give this a shake. He has good speed and will be carving over early from the wide gate trying to lead.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 1400m

DANE THUNDER (10) has the good gate and should be able to settle mid-field, he has been charging home of late in similar/harder races so look for him late. If he can get the right cart into it he will be hard to hold out, especially if the track is playing that way.

Dangers:

THE AVENGER (7) is from the Waller yard and must be respected, he comes through different formlines in NSW and has been consistent. He will also get back and run on but expect him to get out in the betting from his early quote. MR INDIVIDUAL (6) maps better than last start at Caulfield where he was forced to do a stack of work without cover on the speed and didn’t shirk the task late. MR GUSTAVO (3) was good resuming last time, that is the norm for him, he has won second-up and will certainly run out a strong 7 furlongs.

Race 5: Mares Handicap 1200m

RILLITO (3) was dominant here a fortnight ago and this looks no harder. She sat back, showed great acceleration to circle the field quickly and once she hit the front at the furlong pole it was a matter of times and margins. The draw does her no favours, but we should be seeing a repeat performance.

Dangers:

LIFE ON THE WIRE (1) is a winner, resuming here today she has trialed well and won five in a row to begin her prep last time. She has good speed and will use the inside gate to her advantage to either lead or sit behind the leader. DIVINE QUALITY (5) finds it hard to win as is evidenced by her four straight runner-up finishes to start this campaign, look for her late but she needs everything to go right. MAMZELLE TESS (8) will get back and keep coming although there are a couple of others with better closing speed than her. She will probably need to make a long-sustained run.

Race 6: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2000m

MOUNT KILCOY (3) has not finished worse than second in his four career starts, he will get back but has been charging home. He gets out to the 2000m for the first time which is a little query but the way he has been finding the line it should be right up his alley.

Dangers:

MASCULINO (1) looks the obvious danger and will be near the top of the market in the betting, he has the poor draw and the jock will have some decisions to make early. He is a last start winner when sitting up on the speed, it just doesn’t seem likely that he will get to the spot cheaply today. CASA DE LAGO (2) has shown improvement at his last couple, if the speed is on as anticipated, look for him charging late. UNDER OATH (4) is the other that might be competing early for the lead, he should be able to use that good inside draw to his advantage. He just won’t want to cop much pressure though the middle stages.

Race 7: Sir John Monash Stakes WFA 1100m

The feature of the day and it wouldn’t shock to see any one of the eight salute. CRYSTAL DREAMER (2) is resuming, has a great record when racing fresh and has the speed to be up outside the leader early where he can control the tempo. VOODOO LAD (1) returns from a crack at Group One glory in Qld, freshened and back in trip he must be respected. JUKEBOX (6) has trialed well for this run resuming, a winner at both fresh runs and has Craig Williams riding. He is winning everything at the moment. If he can get cover he may be the one finishing the best and expect him to be well supported. INN KEEPER (5) has won 7/9 in his career, has speed and the brilliant front-running rider on in Linda Meech. He will find this is hardest test going to WFA conditions, but he just keeps finding a way.

Race 8: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1400m

RESERVE STREET (6) has won two in a row and with Williams riding, there is no reason he can’t make it the hattrick of wins. He will be coming over early from the wide gate, if he can get to the spot outside the leader cheaply and control the rice, Williams will do the rest.

Dangers:

USAIN BOWLER (5) raced wide but still had cover and every chance last time, he puled up with a throat issue so am willing to forgive that run.He maps beautifully to get the cold sit on the leaders, go on his previous run where he was strong through the line winning at the Valley. STREET SHEIK (9) never runs a bad race, forget the wide draw as he will get back anyway. He will again need everything to go right but should be running through the line as good as anything late. SUMMER SHAM (1) gets some weight relief with the clever claim, she was a winner at her only other second-up run and has won here previously. Speedy, she may give them something to catch.

Race 9: Handicap 1400m

WIDGEE TURF (1) gets the claim off the 61kg imposed on him, he has a stack of talent and goes well at this track. He will be ridden quietly off the inner draw, if he gets the splits late look for his brilliant closing speed to carry him over the line.

Dangers:

CHAMOIS ROAD (2) has won both races this prep, he will have the opposite pattern from the wide draw and will push forward early. A spot outside the leader or a pair back with cover looks ideal for him. BARTHELONA (10) has never raced better, his win at HQ last time was outstanding. He has good tactical speed and gets in with no weight. He will look the winner at some stage no doubt. THEANSWERMYFRIEND (3) comes to the Weir yard for the first time, he has the talent and no doubt it doesn’t hurt changing to this yard. A little concerning that he has not won in five previous fresh runs, he will improve on whatever he does here.

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