Morphettville Racing Tips – Sat May 11
We will be at Morphettville this Saturday.
BEST Race 6 no 5 SACCHARO
Race 1 no 6 SHE SHAO FLY
Tony McEvoy trained filly that gives every indication she has a more than bright future ahead of her despite having just the one win next to her name. Despite frustrating punters of late suggest her two recent South Australian runs have been very good, finding the line strongly on each occasion. Remembering these came off the back from when she started hard in the betting in the much tougher Sires Produce at Flemington back in March. Step back up to the 1400m honestly appears ideal now adding further confidence. Also noting she has a clearly advantage now over all of her rivals having had the most race experience. With Dwayne Dunne now taking the reins simply expect this filly to beat these hence suggesting the current $3 to be more than generous….betting up!
ODDS $3.0 @ Sportsbet, Neds, Bet365
Race 2 no 1 ARKHAM KNIGHT
Comes into this off the back of an eye-catching Listed placing, yet this most underrated galloper will more than likely again go around at double figure odds despite dropping back to Bench Mark 86 company. Admittedly does need things to go his way in his races as he does invariably concede a start, hence hoping some of these leaders go at a more than genuine tempo. Given that scenario reckon this bloke presents as a terrific each-way gamble despite how open this race originally presents. Simply has the ratings on the board to blow these away hence must be supported at the current $14. Debt Collector ($3.50), Vinland ($2.90) and Tan Tat Trusting ($6) the obvious dangers however see no value amongst any of that trio at this early stage.
ODDS $14.0 @ Bet365
Race 3 no 5 ASSERTIVE PLAY
Former South Australian galloper that is 2/2 this track/distance! Although couldn’t quite crack it for a win in Melbourne, form still very good behind some quality gallopers. Is certain to find this much more suitable, so much so we would be declaring him if it wasn’t for the uncertainty surrounding Tequila Time that resumes from a year long spell. Betting will make things all the more clearer…..rates a conservative $3 clear top pick at the moment and suggest if no money comes for Tequila Time then double your bet! Personally confess to having a nibble at the early $4 whilst ready to go much harder come raceday.
ODDS $4.0 @ Ladbrokes, BetEasy, Neds, Bet365, BetStar
Race 4 no 7 SPLIT LIP
More than handy galloper on her day that has been seriously luckless when still far from disgraced in both runs since resuming. Surely now nearing peak fitness whilst rise to 1200m we suggest is also a big positive. Gets race run to suit with a more than genuine tempo expected up front whilst also can’t ignore that fact she is now getting down in the weights. Also noting has already come in for some early support having opened $7.50….would be disappointed not to see a much improved run here. Obviously a big watch on the speedy dual acceptor Sam’s Image ($3). Previously the conqueror of Nature Strip, however would prefer to see again after just moderate first-up run.
BET: WIN or EACH-WAY
ODDS $6.0 @ Bet365
Race 5 No 11 ZAGATO STAR
This is our throw at the stumps race with most runners at having at least some chance. Recent efforts read more than solid including last start far from disgraced despite covering a stack of extra ground throughout when still beaten less than 4L. Drawn much more favourably whilst also gets massive positive rider change with the experienced Dwayne Dunn taking over from recent apprentices. Suggest one could do a lot worse than support this mare each-way and seriously think she is a bet to nothing without going overboard at the current $34. Also suggest punters respect both Miss Identified ($8.50) and Dexter You Devil ($5).
ODDS $34.0 @ Bet365
Race 6 No 5 SACCHARO Concede this bloke doesn’t win out of turn however also acknowledge has done most of his racing against Black type company. Comes off the back of two luckless efforts including last start when still far from disgraced in what we expect to be a strong form race. Seriously suggest he has finally found his ideal race whilst confident in stating that he simply wins this given a repeat of his last start rating. To say we are gobsmacked bookies have gone up $6 would be an understatement considering we have him priced at $3! Best bet hence unleashing the purse strings! Having said that expecting Muswellbrook ($7.50) to display improvement hence also worthy of a wager. BET: WIN ODDS $6.0 @ Sportsbet, Ladbrokes, BetEasy, Neds, Bet365, BetStar
Race 7 No 16 QAFILA
Was enormous in last weeks high rating Oaks when making up a stack of ground, despite not enjoying the clearest of runs. Also proven when on the quick back-up whilst no stranger to racing against the boys having finished close-up in last years Vic Derby. Unlike a lot of her rivals at least we know she will get the trip. Icing on the cake is the current $15 being offered-we have her rated $7 in what is obviously a most open race. Especially respecting both Declarationofheart ($5.50) and Secret Blaze ($9.50) whilst prepared to gamble against the favourite Mr Quickie ($3.80), stepping up beyond 2000m for the first time.
ODDS $15.0 @ Bet365
Race 8 No 9 CHEVAUX
Comes off a total forgive run when simply didn’t handle the awkward Oakbank track. Previous form more than up to these including a close-up 1.6L fifth (didn’t have the clearest of runs!) behind Parsifal who will start favourite in this. What however makes this bloke appeal however is the fact he meets Parsifal ($2.60) a massive 4kg better at the weights. Seriously think the market has grossly overreacted to one most uncharacteristically bad run with excuses, and simply stunned bookies have gone up $20. Tongue tie also now goes on-rates $6 in our books hence must definitely recommend readers have a real good each way bet to finish the day. Concede scared stiff of Illumicon ($3.20) that arguably should have beaten Gytrash (has since placed against G2 company!) last start, however will need everything to go his way having drawn out in the carpark.
ODDS $20.0 @ Bet365