April 26, 2019
Tips

Kensington (Wed)

Hawkesbury

Kensington Racing Tips – Wed Apr 3

Our Best of the Day at Kensington comes in Race 5, while there’s some value about in the last on the card.

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – VEDDER

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Race 1: 2YO Maiden Handicap 1150m

Four of the ten have been to the races before, DEVACHAN (6) is a Godolphin filly that was beaten as a short-priced favourite on debut, she led and got run down that day but was slow to recover, so am willing to forgive her that run. She was sent straight to the paddock, has been given a very soft trial on the heavy track in preparation for this. Hard to beat.

Dangers:

RAMMSTEIN (5) must be respected on debut from the Gerald Ryan stable, he has trialed well and this yard usually has them ready to win on debut. FAMOUS (4) debuted in the Pago Pago a fortnight ago, he was well beaten but this is a huge drop I class and the track that day was very heavy. I expect him to be a big improver. DEEP SEA (2) draws well and has trialed good enough, has to be a place chance especially if there is any money for him.

Race 2: 3YO Maiden Plate Set Weights 1300m

PINUP MISS (7) was well supported from double figures in at her debut at Warwick Farm three weeks ago, she got well back and ran through the line nicely. It is unusual to see a Waterhouse/Bott debutant so far back, the race has proved a super form reference with 3 subsequent winners coming out of it. From the wide draw, hopefully she is ridden positively with the blinkers on.

Dangers:

WORD FOR WORD (10) placed at all three runs at her first prep, she has been off the scene for 3 months but has trialed impressively. She may need a little luck getting the right cart into it. HAUNTING SPIRIT (4) has placed at all three this time in, he is on the quick back-up and draws to get a soft run. BRILLIANCE SQUARED (1) is an interesting runner that has landed at the Anthony Cummings yard after the Darren Weir fallout, he has been gelded and has trialed quietly. A big watch on the betting with him.

Race 3: BM74 Handicap 1000m

Looks a tough race on paper and none of the eight runners would shock if they won. TRAUMATISED (6) is a winner, he was going through the grades nicely before going to the paddock and returned nicely with a dominant heavy track win. He has showed he can do it in all conditions and is well drawn.

Dangers:

NOVEMBER MAN (8) was resuming last start at Goulburn, he came out and won by more than 6 lengths. Sure, it was only a Goulburn class 2, but the dominance of the win shows how well he has come back and that was his first placing when resuming! THE TENOR (5) has been consistent to start his career, forget he went around fresh as he was way too wide throughout and never really given a chance, although not beaten far. GOLDFINCH (2) is resuming and has a tremendous record fresh, has trialed well and draws perfectly. Tough race.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1400m

GALWAY GIRL (7) has been runner-up at both starts this time in, she has had her chances admittedly but does get that perfect run again here. Her only win was when she scored at maiden level third-up, which she is today, that was also the only time she has been on a soft track.

Dangers:

DAME KIRI (5) has not missed a place in her seven career starts, she races well against the girls and maps to get the soft run again. If she can be saved for one run, look for her late. SURE KNEE (1) was very impressive in a recent heavy track trial, a tough ask going straight to the 1400m fresh and will be looking to take her on fresh. RED CHANDELIER (6) was outclassed last time and didn’t handle the heavy track when wide throughout, she looks much better suited here.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1150m

VEDDER (8) is a 3YO taking on the older horses here but he looks to have a stack of upside. He won his maiden before going to the paddock, resumed at Gosford but looked to run out of condition then ran on well last time to narrowly miss. He should be fully fit now, winkers go on and maps to have the cold sit.

Dangers:

COMMON PURPOSE (2) wasn’t beaten far in a country Champs qualifier last time when weaving between runners in the straight, she handles all conditions but it is a little worry where he will get to in the run from the wide draw. THE LION (5) travels down from Tamworth, he maps to get a soft run and should be able to handle this class. COME ALONG (6) had the perfect run when winning at Kembla, he doesn’t get that here from the wide draw and looks a place chance only

Race 6: BM78 Handicap 1800m

SCREAMER (11) has placed at both runs this campaign after getting a mile back at both of them, he should be able to settle a little closer here from the good draw and at peak fitness third-up.

Dangers:

KING TOMLOLA (1) had to do too much work on the heavy track last time at Rosehill, he gets a few gear changes and if you can forget that he is a little enigmatic, his best would win this. BRACES (2) is a last start winner in a slightly easier race than this, but he did have to work in the run, which he may have to do again here form the wide draw. SMART AS YOU THINK (4) is coming back from black-type racing, he doesn’t win out of turn but will appreciate this class.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1300m

The biggest field of the day and one of the hardest no doubt. GRIMOIRE (8) was a good winner at Hawkesury a couple of weeks ago, it can be difficult to follow form from that track sometimes but there was a lot to like about the way he ran through the line. He has fitness on his side also with some of the major chances here being fresh.

Dangers:

QUACKERJACK (7) is an interesting runner resuming, he has been gelded in his time off and although he was pushed along late in a recent trial, there was a lot to like about it. HE gets the inside alley which may be a little tricky, but if he jumps with them Parr should be very handy early and making his own luck in the big field. RESTRAINED (12) is undefeated after three career runs, he has shown that he can handle all conditions and will make his own luck up on the speed. This is harder but winning form is good form. COTERIE (10) gets the blinkers back on, although he wasn’t really suited by the way the race was run at Canberra last time, he was very disappointing. He is better than that, hopefully the gear changes do the trick.

Race 8: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1400m

CALIFORNIA CONCORD (10) won his maiden when second-up as he is today, he ran on well after having to change course half-way down the straight last time and wasn’t beaten far into third. He didn’t show much last prep after getting out of maiden grade but he looks to have come back well. Hughie should get a nice cart into it, look for him late down the middle of the track.

Dangers:

FULL RECOGNITION (11) was very short when winning his maiden at Newcastle last time, he will go forward and make his own luck, Bery rides them well when he is up on the speed. QUADRIGA (9) was good resuming, outclassed two back then was in the wrong part of the track last time in a race that has been a very good form reference. Has to be included in everything. OBELOS (6) is an interesting runner for the Waller yard, he was ok at his Australian debut and would have taken plenty from the run.

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