Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat Mar 30
We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.
Track: Heavy 8. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – MADISON COUNTY
Race 1: TJ Baillieu Handicap 2YO 1400m
BELLEVUE HILL (1) bolted in at Canberra on debut in the Black Opal preview, went to Randwick and led them up in the Todman but was no match for the smart winner who has come out and run a ripper in the Slipper since. Untried on the rain affected tracks, he is by Pierro, he absolutely loved it wet. He will lead for a long way and first use of the track looks a bonus.
STRASBOURG (2) was ok in the Todman, he was first-up that day so may have improved for the run. LA TENE (3) won the Sires in Melbourne at her latest start, not sure how that form will measure up long term but you have to respect the Godolphin babies.
SPRING LOADED (7) looks an improver, he was poor last time but gets the blinkers here and should appreciate the give in the ground.
Race 2: Neville Selwood Set Weights and Penalties 2000m
The early scratching of Rondinella may indicate that she will get a start in the big Group One, which leaves this wide open. If the track is still heavy, MOSS ‘N’ DALE (2) comes right into play. He has only been fair at two runs this time in but both of them in much harder races than this and both on the good surface. He does best when the sting is out of the ground and goes well third-up.
EMPEROR’S WAY (6) should be nearing peak fitness now, he was half a kilo over when getting very close but having every chance at Randwick three weeks ago. He maps beautifully mid-field to let it all unfold early. HARLEM (1) is a last start WFA Group One winner, he does have to come back to the set weights and penalty conditions and would need a good surface. MAIN STAGE (10) is only going fairly in Vic this time in but has come north looking for the softer track and should get it here. He looks a big improver.
Race 3: Tulloch Stakes 3YO Colts and Geldings 2000m
MADISON COUNTY (1) was only beaten 2.7 lengths behind the Autumn Sun when having his first Australian start in the Randwick Guineas, he as coming home in similar sectionals to that star and handles the wet well. He would have given him a big scare in my opinion in the Rosehill Guineas, this looks a stack easier.
IN A TWINKLING (2) could provide a one-two punch for the Kiwis, he was super when narrowly beaten in the Group One NZ Derby last start. He is coming back in trip which looks ideal, maps well and may look the winner at some stage. Could it be a NZ trained Trifecta? PLATINUM INVADER (3) wasn’t far away in that same Derby, COSSETOT (4) is deep into his first prep but is still racing well.
Race 4: Emancipation Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1500m
ALIZEE (1) looks very well in here coming off an All Star mile campaign where he was good but had every chance behind the star Tasmanian. She had won all three starts dominantly prior to that this campaign, back against the girls here she looks well in. She bolted in on a Soft 7 in the Expressway, that is about what this track is expected to play.
NOIRE (4) is going a lot better than what her numerical form line suggests. She should get a more economical run here from the inside gate provided that the inside is not off, look for her late. DYSLEXIC (8) was narrowly beaten here two weeks ago on the heavy track, was half a kilo overweight which may have made the difference? She was ridden much closer last time, expect similar here.
NAANTALI (9) is flying but just keeps running into one better. That form from down south should hold up her and she is 1/1 on the heavy.
Race 5: Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m
ARDROSSAN (4) is an interesting runner, he is a former Mick Price runner that has been in NZ for it’s last three starts and won two of them for the new yard. He is 3/3 on a soft track, has good tactical speed and should appreciate the give in the ground.
MANUEL (1) is another that will be looking for the front spot early, he has been going well in harder races in Vic and handles the wet. If he can get on the bunny or control the speed from outside the leader he will be hard to run down. ESTIJAAB (6) is taking on the older horses, she chased hard behind a couple of speedsters last time and did win the Slipper on a fairly rain-affected track.
BRAVE SONG (7) goes well fresh and has trialed well.
Race 6: Vinery Stud Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 2000m
VERRY ELLEEGANT (3) could not have been more impressive in the lead-up to this here a fortnight ago, she had a soft-run in the inside (the rail seemed to be ok even though it was a Heavy 10) before JMac saved ground to take the lead early in the straight and run away for a comfortable win. She clearly handles the conditions, I expect her to be easy in betting though as she was favoured by the tempo of that last start win. Wait until late in the betting.
EL DORADO DREAMING (2) was super in the Colmore, she comes back against her own age group at set weights and clearly handles the wet tracks. If there is any more rain around, she looks the clear danger. NAKEETA JANE (1) was super winning her first two this campaign, she was then expected to give the The Autumn Sun a race last time when under 3/1 against him, she ran on well from the back but the pattern of the race suited her. POHUTUKAWA (8) was a huge drifter in the betting two starts back when racing a few of these and never saw daylight, she should have finished closer. She then was way too classy at Kembla last time, she loves it wet also. Tough race.
Race 7: H. E. Tancred Stakes WFA 2400m
In hindsight, AVILIUS (1) got out to silly odds when winning the Ranvet here last week. He had won both starts prior to a “flop” at long odds on in the Australian Cup (late jockey change there as well, he was only beaten 1.4 lengths as well) and was subsequently sent out at 9/2 in the old and absolutely bolted in with McEvoy taking the steer. JMac goes on today, stepping up to the mile and a half looks ideal and he clearly handles the track when the conditions are tricky like they were last week. He looks the best of the day on the 7-day back-up.
BIG DUKE (8) has been good this prep, he is also on the week’s back-up after running on well in the heavy conditions here last week. RONDINELLA (14) is an interesting runner should she get a start, she wasn’t far away at Group One level in NZ last start and handles the conditions. RED CARDINAL (3) has come back a new horse with brilliant wins at both runs this prep. Not sure that WFA racing is his go, and his main goal is probably the Sydney Cup inn a couple of weeks. He looks a great lay here, take him on.
Race 8: Doncaster Prelude 1500m
Genuine dart job! MISTER SEA WOLF (1) might be worth a small each-way play here fresh, he has a terrific record when resuming and has an ok record on rain affected tracks. His last win was in the Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury in the early Spring, he has tackled four straight Group Ones since and probably needed the freshen up.
Most of them. Play very wide in the Quaddie. MASK OF TIME (5) goes well in the wet and will be making his own luck up on the speed. SIEGE OF QUEBEC (2) trialed well on the heavy track recently, he has won second-up previously and draws well. He should be mid-field in the run and charging late. TOM MELBOURNE (3) is honest but usually finds one or two better on the day.
Race 9: BM88 Handicap 1400m
Another open race on paper but I am confident we can narrow it down to three chances. RENEWAL (8) is drawn horribly but it may be a blessing in disguise on this track by this time of the day. He was brilliant winning resuming when getting well back and storming home. He will be forced well back again but they may be fanning very wide, the extra distance suits.
SPRING CHARLIE (9) is a winner, he was good when resuming last time, he may have just run out of condition late after hitting the front early in the straight. STAR OF THE SEAS (10) looks the other winning chance and loves the wet, likely to get back as well, he will most likely have to give the run into the race to the top selection. MAHALANGUR (7) next best, also goes well in the conditions but looked to have every chance last time and happy to risk him.