Warwick Farm Racing Tips – Wed Mar 27
We will be at Warwick Farm this Wednesday where our man is looking to finish the day with a bang – Egyptian Bullet ($11) is on top in the last.
Track: Heavy 9. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – FAIRLIGHT
Race 1: 2YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights 1100m
Impossible to bet into these first two races with any confidence. The babies on a heavy track, 10 debutants here makes it a pass for me. If you must bet, ESCONDIDO (7) looks clearly the best of the raced brigade, he ran on ok on debut when single-figure odds. IMPUDENS (8) is on debut and has won two trials leading into this, BACCHUS(2) was sent to the paddock after an encouraging debut on Boxing Day, the blinkers go on for the first time.
BULLET RAIDERS (3) must be respected from the Snowden yard, drawn out, he has only been fair at the trials.
Race 2: 2YO Fillies Maiden Set Weights 1100m
Like the boys division, there are way too many unknowns to have any confidence here. Nine of the fourteen runners are coming to the races for the first time. COMPATRIOT (7) debuted here a fortnight ago, she was big odds but ran on well in a race where the tempo didn’t suit that pattern.
BOLLYWOOD (6) is a Godolphin 2YO that has placed at 4 of 5, the stable is flying, especially in this age group having just Quinelled the Slipper on the weekend. BADIA (4) is the stablemate that ran on well n debut but has had 7-weeks in between runs, not always a good thing heading onto a heavy track. WAYUPINTHESKY (14) debuted in the Reisling a couple of weeks ago and certainly wasn’t disgraced, she did over-race and the inside gate probably doesn’t suit her. She looks a great lay as the class drop will appeal to plenty and she will start well under the odds in my opinion. Obviously respect any money for those on debut.
Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m
GREEN AEON (4) won on debut here a fortnight ago, he showed that he still had a bit to learn but has good speed and was really strong when challenged. McEvoy stays on, the wide draw shouldn’t be an issue, the spot outside the leader will be good enough for him to make it 2/2.
BUBBLES ‘N’ TROUBLES (3) goes well in the wet, she was good here last time when she had excuses. She lost a plate and got further back than you would expect, she will be closer in the run here. PERFECT PITCH (6) was good resuming when running on from well back, her only win was second-up as she is today. I’M SO SWEET (8) has never seen a heavy track, she maps well again here to be just camped off the leaders but she has had her chances at both runs this time in.
Race 4: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1200m
TONY’S REWARD (11) was really good last campaign, he has trialed well for his return and draws well. It looks a really tough race on paper that will be a good form reference going forward. He will ba camped on the leaders and should be making his own luck.
Plenty of them. UP TRUMPZ (9) has been very consistent, his form has been a little mixed on the wet tracks, he will get back and run on if he handles the heavy. ECHO JET (6) is an interesting runner that has changed stables since we last saw him a long 63-weeks ago, he is a trial winner and stablemate to our top pick. NICCO LAD (4) has only missed a placing at one of his seven career starts, he was on the pace but beaten off early at his only heavy track run, willing to forgive that.
Race 5: BM76 Handicap 2400m
FAIRLIGHT (3) was a dominant winner in an easier race last time, he does have to rise in grade but there was a lot to like about that last win. He loves the heavy track and while many of these will be feeling at the back-end of 2400m on the bog track, he will be running through the line hard. Both runs in Australia have been good, he looks the best of the day.
JAKE’S HILL (2) will find this easier than last time when not beaten far on a heavy track last time. He is getting out in trip, last time he was at the mile-and-a-half was in the Metropolitan. This is a fair class drop from that. PLYMOUTH ROAD (1) was well beaten at Listed level last time, this is easier and he goes well in the conditions. MAKDANIFE (8) is on the quick back-up from Hawkesbury last week on the heavy track, always wary following form from that track though.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1200m
FASIKA (9) has to step out of maiden grade after a dominant win on debut last time, there are a lot of reasons that the big guns will want to take her on but she looks to have oodles of talent. She was double figure odds, rises in class and gets the wet track, but am willing to she has more upside and will go through the grades nicely. Wait until late to back her as I think she will get out late.
SHE’S FURLINE (5) had trialed well before a nice run resuming, she didn’t have a lot of luck and ran on well after getting clear. RAGAZZE (2) won a class two last start against the girls, she has good speed so will take up a spot on the pace, a little worrying that the draw will hurt her here as they are likely to be coming wide. ALISON OF TUFFY (11) gets the blinkers back on, she was ok in an easier race last time and clearly handles the wet tracks well.
Race 7: BM76 Handicap 1600m
SONDELON (1) gets up in the weight here after a dominant win in this grade last time, but it just looks a matter of handling the heavy track. He has the wide draw but will roll forward, if he gets the front cheaply load up in play.
GOLD MAG (3) is an interesting runner that really loves the sting out of the ground. He has done all of his racing in Vic, has been consistent and his only poor result was last time but he was wide throughout. The wet track suits. SILENT EXPLORER (8) loves it wet, he will go forward and maps well with the likelihood of him trailing the topweight early. YULONG EMPEROR (7) is an interesting runner having his first race start in Australia, plenty of unknowns so it may be best to follow the money late.
Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1100m
Very tough race to finish the card. EGYPTIAN BULLET (6) did not see the winners stall last campaign, she was a little enigmatic but at her best she can win this. She flies fresh and has trialed well.
ROOSEVELT (12) is from the in-form Cummings stable, he didn’t have much luck when resuming then was outclassed last time. He will appreciate coming back to this grade taking on the older horses. STEPHAN (8) has been consistent but usually needs everything to go right with his style of getting back and running on. VOILA (13) is another taking on the older horses, she has won on a heavy track previously and goes well fresh.