Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat Mar 23
We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.
Track: Heavy 9. Rail: Out 3m entire straight.
Best Bet: Race 8 – REDZEL
Race 1: Birthday Card Fillies and Mares 1200m
AVANTAGE (3) is a Kiwi heading here fresh, she is also nominated for the second race of the day. She looks better suited here against the girls, she was 6-months between runs when winning a Group Three their last time, has been off the scene another 6-months but has shown she flies fresh. She looks a good thing if she runs here.
RESIN (2) was brave in defeat when resuming, she ran up and hit the front before maybe just running out of condition and getting run down late. She is a perfect 2/2 when second-up. SHE KNOWS (1) is on the quick back-up, she ran on hard on the heavy track last week but not sure the inside will be the place to be drawn here today after two consecutive weeks of heavy tracks. Look for her late. SWEET SCANDAL (5) had a tough run on the speed last time and tired late, she may have to sit wide again but that may not be an issue over the 1200m with only the one turn.
Race 2: Darby Munro Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
CLASSIQUE LEGEND (14) is undefeated after two starts, he sat outside the leader and won comfortably on debut, he then sat three-wide early before getting outside the leader at the Kenso track again at start two, accelerated at the top of the straight and bolted in by 6. He is having his first go on a heavy track but the maiden win was on a Soft6, prepared to say that his ability will get him through.
WAGNER (13) resumed with a good win after racing wide, he did have to survive a protest in the steward’s room though. He hasn’t finished any further back than 2nd in three rain-affected track starts.
AVANTAGE (3) is one of many Kiwi’s heading across the ditch here for the big day, hard to fault her form and if there isn’t any money for the top pick, she should be considered as she is proven in the conditions. (also nominated in the first race) GEM SONG (1) hasn’t done anything wrong and must be included in all exotics. This will be a good form race going forward.
Race 3: N E Manion Cup Quality 2400m
Hardest race of the day. ONE FOOT IN HEAVEN (3) worked home ok last time, he should be nearing peak fitness here third-up, a pattern he has won three form five in his career. VIN DE DANCE (4) was poor in NZ at Group One level last time, he had handled the heavy track well previously so willing to forgive him that run. CASTERTON (7) was poor in the lead-up but was in the market and found to be lame so am willing to forgive that run. BIG DUKE (1) handles the conditions well and was doing his best work late last time. No confidence.
Race 4: Rosehill Guineas 3YO Set Weights 2000m
I am in the minority no doubt but I am not convinced that The Autumn Sun is the superstar many make out. He is unbelievably good, don’t get me wrong, but there is a little bit of vulnerability about him here. MADISON COUNTY (2) is already a Group One winner in NZ on the rain affected going, his run in the Randwick Guineas was superb from a mile back. His closing speed matched the Autumn Sun over the last furlong, she handles the going and the 200m shouldn’t be an issue.
Obviously THE AUTUMN SUN (1) will have plenty of the public\s money, but I really think that the pro’s and big syndicates may take him on late in the betting. His only loss was on a heavy track (yes it was still a super run), stepping up to the 2000m for the first time and the chance that the speed won’t be on, and if it is, will suit the top pick also. I really think he is only an even money chance and think that he will drift in the betting to closer to that mark. CROWN PROSECUTOR (3) is the NZ Derby winner at his latest so he will certainly run the trip, DEALMAKER (9) wasn’t beaten far behind Mystic Journey last time in the Australian Guineas, that formline has certainly stood up. Really keen to lay the favourite here.
Race 5: George Ryder Stakes WFA 1500m
WINX (4) Wins Again! On a terrific days racing this is one that really isn’t a betting proposition, for win punters anyway. Just sit back and watch her fly! For The exotics, LAND OF PLENTY (1) is a star in his own right, he has been thrown around this prep from trainer to trainer but the owners seem to have settled on the Snowdens (for now). He ran home har din the Futurity, may have had a little setback after being scratched last week but he is the second best horse in the race. RINGERDINGDING (8) has been super without winning at all three runs this campaign, he ran home hard in the Guineas behind Mystic Journey when not many did. He should get the right tempo here, Winx races are rarely run slowly. BRUTAL (9) has a stack of talent, he was only fair at his first WFA assignment last time but wasn’t suited by the way the race was run, and he lost a plate in running.
Race 6: Ranvet Stakes WFA 2000m
NIGHT’S WATCH (6) hasn’t really hit the heights that he was promising after a stellar Spring, he was obviously impacted by the Weir saga and I am happy to stick with him. He was ok in the Australian Cup, his only heavy track start he was a winner in which he really travelled well throughout. He will get back but that is likely to be no disadvantage by this time of the day.
AVILIUS (2) was beaten as a very short priced favourite in the Australian Cup, it is fair to say that he had every chance. He looks great value here also, thinking that if he won that race, we would probably be seeing closer to flip of the coin odds? The heavy track is a question mark, back to Sydney looks a huge positive! ACE HIGH (3) comes through the same formline, he had no luck late and wasn’t beaten far. I expect that the big players are going to want to risk the Australian Cup runners, so maybe wait until late in the betting with these three. HE’S EMINENT (5) is a very interesting runner from the UK having his first start here in Oz and JMac goes on.
Race 7: Golden Slipper 2YO 1200m
The dominance of the Godolphin 2YO’s hasn’t gone unnoticed this season, and that is proven by them having six in the race (should be fun for the race-caller), but we are steering away from them as one of the better bets on the card. COSMIC FORCE (5) has had the three runs this prep, a little flat when runner-up fresh, over-raced outside the leader and stuck on well two back then brained them on the heavy track in the Pago Pago last week after a perfect ride. McDonald off and Zahra on is my only concern but he has the wet track form, looks to be getting better with every run and will make his own luck somewhere not fa off the speed. He will be spoiling the Sheik’s party!
LYRE (7) is drawn out but will get back anyway, she crushed them in the Blue Diamond a month ago and has been kept sharp with a nice trial last week. MICROPHONE (2) shot to favourtism three weeks ago when showing a brilliant turn-of-foot to run past our top selection and should be peaking for this. Untried in the heavy going though, he looks a good risk off that fact alone and has the inside gate. EXHILIRATES (15) may be the forgotten horse, the Magic Million winner looked like he needed the run last time when resuming, hit the line well and he will be the one dropping out and flashing late if they go crazy up front. Looks a great race and a great cop of babies!
Race 8: The Galaxy Handicap 1100m
REDZEL (1) is the best of the day. Sure, he doesn’t get in great at the handicap conditions, carrying a kilo over what he lugged at WFA last start, but there is a reason for that! The map is absolutely ideal, the speed will be like nothing we have seen before, he will be perfectly camped behind them, he won the Everest at his last Heavy track start and was closing nicely fresh when losing a plate in the run. He flies second-up also. Get on.
Cracking race. PIERATA (3) was super resuming, he hasn’t finished further back than 2nd in three second-up starts. He was great resuming when getting a mile out of his ground, the last time he saw the heavy track he bolted in at Group Three level. JUNGLE EDGE (5) is not as good as these, and that’s no knock on him, but he grows a leg in the wet. The more rain the better for him. I am a big fan of NATURE STRIP (4) but wow there is a big gap between his best and worst. He will jump and run but won’t get it all his own way in front and looks very vulnerable at the back end of 1100 in the heavy conditions.
Race 9: Epona Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1900m
Field job in the Quaddie. Hopefully you have played thin in the previous leg with Redzel and can afford to lower the % with many selections here. ALL TOO SOON (3) didn’t have a lot of luck last time and should be fully fit now,
LUSKINTYRE LASS (4) comes through that race as well and stuck on nicely racing on the speed. HARMATTAN (6) made ground late in that race, it looks the right form line. Do we give GIRL TUESDAY (5) another chance? She has been disappointing but the ability is there. Tough finish to a fabulous day’s racing.