July 16, 2020
Tips

Sale (Wed)

Geelong

Sale Racing Tips – May 27th

We will be at Sale this Wednesday.

Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 4 – MOI CHOUX

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Race 1: 2YO Maiden Plate 1200m

Impossible to tip with any confidence, all but one of the babies is on debut. Making it particularly tougher is the fact that three of the emergencies come right into play as they look the best performed on the track so far. As they are 1-12 now, watch for any money for the first-starters MYSTIQUE FALCON (12) and MISS CONDUCT (11). I AM MAMWAAZEL (6) is the only horse to have been to the races previously, he was huge odds on debut at Geelong and hit the front momentarily before being swamped late. He is first-up today. AS stated earlier, three of the four emergencies come into play if they gain a start, in particular KELLERS SHELTER (14)

Race 2: Maiden Plate 1717m

NOT FOR IZZY (9) has placed at his last two runs, both of them on rain affected tracks. He probably should have won after getting held-up at a vital stage two starts ago and then sat up on the speed and hit the front but was no match for the winner last time. Drawn well and with a huge jockey change of Willow going on, he should be hard to run down.

Dangers:

PARIS PIKE (10) is a maiden after 4 starts, he resumed at Cranbourne off a 3-month break and had plenty of excuses. He over-raced, got well back and held-up before running on hard late. FRANKIE FIORENTE (4) looks at home on the wet tracks, he has the wide draw but will get back anyway. DARCY ECKELS (3) has two placings on soft tracks, he stormed home at Wangaratta last time to narrowly miss with a big gap back to third.

Race 3: Maiden Plate 1000m

HUMMALONG (7) has placed at all three starts, the wet track should be sweet with all of those runs being on soft or heavy tracks. He only had one run last campaign, placing at Cranbourne after having every chance. He resumes today and maps well.

Dangers:

LARIAT (12) debuted on the heavy track at Sandown a month ago, she showed good tactical speed to lead and kept kicking until being swamped over the last 100m. Two of the first-starters create interest, JAZZLES (8) from the Maher Eustace stable and LIBERTUS (4) out of the Shea Eden yard at Cranbourne. Watch for any positive moves with the wagering service providers.

Race 4: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1000m

MOI CHOUX (1) resumed here at the track two back and made it 3 of 4 in his career, leading all the way. He was here again last time and once again led them out, no doubt he should have won the race after the jockey lost a rein inside the furlong and was unable to ride him out. He gets a good claim and draws well, how do they run him down?

Dangers:

BEAUTY SUPREME (2) bolted in to win his maiden before going to the break, he resumed in town in a much harder race than this, had a good run in transit and stuck on well to place. He has placed at both of his previous second-up runs. BEATRIX (6) was sent to the paddock after being heavily backed to win her maiden, she may have to sit parked here and face the breeze. WITH EDGE (5) is also resuming, placed at all three career runs, not sure where he gets to though with Willow riding. He may get cute and go back and ride for luck?

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1100m

MASTER MONTARO (5) was solidly supported and started favourite on debut at Pakenham, after getting back in the run he charged home to win by a big margin. He looks to have plenty of potential but there are obviously a couple of queries with the change of stable, now with Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig and having the first start on a wet track. He does look the best horse though.

Dangers:

LAKE’S FOLLY (2) is another that get back, he was super resuming here a month ago to win his first race out of maiden grade. Drawn out, he is likely to be giving them a big start again. THE GREAT BRATSKI (8) rarely runs a bad race but doesn’t win out of turn, she has good speed and will have the tactical advantage over her main rivals. WRITE ENUFF (7) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, she handles the track conditions and will go forward.

Race 6: BM64 Handicap 2200m

MISS HARRIETTE (9) has a stack of ability but the wet track is a concern. I expect her to be easy in the betting as her last two runs on heavy tracks have been poor, albeit in harder grade than this. If the track does dry up in the next couple of days, she looks the one to beat.

Dangers:

Not a lot of confidence in this race. KANSINO (10) is having his fifth start at prep number one, he was an easing favourite last time and finally got the maiden out of the way with a good effort running on hard form the middle of the pack. Willow sticks with the ride on BIG BREW (4), he was disappointing last time at Sandown and probably wants an improving track. MR MONACO (1) has had a month between runs but has been given a couple of hit-outs over the jumps in preparation for this. He doesn’t have a lot of speed but will keep grinding away on the speed.

Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1600m

TABERNA (4) had a long time off before resuming with a win here at the track. She has since gone to Pakenham and stuck on ok after a torrid run off the track then stormed home at Sandown on the wet track to just miss. She looks one of the best of the day with options early from the good draw.

Dangers:

CRACKSMAN (6) is resuming, he hasn’t shown much previously but has been good at the jump-outs. He will probably want further and will improve on whatever he does here, but I have a feeling he may have come back a much better horse. HERMAN’S BELLS (9) is yet to win out of maiden grade, he showed more sped last time and led them up before getting run down late. This is harder but similar tactics won’t see him far away. BLENDERS EDITION (3) won his first two starts but has had a run of 5 outs since, he placed resuming and then made up some ground last start in a race where it was beneficial to be on the speed.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1400m

STREET TOUGH (3) has had two runs with the new yard since coming over from Tasmania, he found the 1100m too short resuming and was doing his best work late. He probably should have won at The Bool over the carnival, he was held-up at a vital stage before getting through to hit the front only to be run down late. It was a tough watch for those that were on.

Dangers:

MUSWELLBROOK (2) has failed in three heavy track runs but does seem to go better when the track isn’t too wet. He was poor on the bog track at Sandown a month ago, he has been up a long time but the runs prior to that were sound. MIROKU (9) has placed at his last couple and will get back in the run, his last two runs have been good enough on the wet tracks to suggest he gets through it well enough. VICI (10) is third-up, he was beaten just over a length when second-up but no doubt should have finished closer after being held-up for more than a furlong when the runs came.

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