Rosehill Racing Tips -Wed Nov 20
We will be at Rosehill this Wednesday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m entire straight.
Best Bet: Race 2 – PINCER
Race 1: 2YO Maiden Set Weights 1100m
Seven un-raced 2YO’s to go around in the first, not an ideal way to start a Wednesday. HINCHBEAST (3) was impressive at the trials recently, VOLTERRA (6) won over 900m at the trials for Waller last week. David Payne has three runners, look for any money for
JEMMS (7) and GENJIRO (2).
Race 2: 3YO and Up Maiden Plate Set Weights 1900m
A small field should suit PINCER (6) in getting his maiden win at career start five, placing in all of them here in his first prep. I would say this will be it for him and off to the paddock, it looks a favourable map as he gets a soft lead and should be able to quicken and leave them flat-footed. Watch how race one pans out, if they don’t make ground, expect him to be very heavily backed in the last 30 minutes.
SHADOW GIRL (7) looks the obvious danger, he has placed at both runs but as always I am very wary of formlines coming through Hawkesbury, he had every chance there last time and was suited the way the race was run. WRISTBAND (3) will be near last in the small field but showed improvement last time to place. ESTROVERTO (1) the only other winning hope but he just always seems to find one or two better.
Race 3: 3YO Maiden Handicap 1400m
Unlike race two where I was keen to stay away from last start Hawkesbury runners, RARI (4) certainly looks the one to beat here. He was resuming there last start over 1000m as favourite, got well back and was still 7 or 8 lengths off them into the straight. He ran on hard to just miss the placings, up in trip to the 7 furlongs and blinkers on for the first time, he looks the one.
I would be labelling him a moral if it weren’t for the unknown debutant from the Mark Newnham stable MISSION DREAM (1). He is brilliantly bread and has been fair at the trials, tough ask straight into the 7 furlongs though. BACHUS (6) is resuming as a gelding after having the chop in his time off, 23 weeks between runs he didn’t show a lot last prep but we all know how much that “gear change” can improve them.
Race 4: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1100m
FITUESE (6) led all the way and bolted in at her debut in Newcastle back in mid-October. She was then easy in the betting when at Kembla last time but still started favourite, was held-up at a vital stage and hampered a couple of times and was only clear late. A tough watch for those who backed her.
TALLIS (4) will find this harder than his last two starts when bolting in at Port Macquarie. He led throughout at both those runs but may be better suited taking the sit here off the inside draw. ACQUITAINE (7) is resuming, good at both starts and has trialed well. No doubt the Godolphin filly will have come on whilst in the paddock but happy to take her on here if she is under $5. BELISTA (3) is resuming, she has only missed a place once in her six-start career and was close-up in a recent trial.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 2400m
LOVESEAT (4) is a Godolphin runner that has been very consistent but still only has the two wins from 15 career starts. She has been up for a while, her latest effort on Oaks Day at Flemington was good against the girls, she officially ran ninth but was running on hard before racing tight over the last furlong.
MISS MOANA (1) was ridden closer last time off the inside and it paid dividends with a soft win, she gets the 3kg claim here and I think they will push forward from the wide gate. POULTON LE SANDS (2) gets out in trip but the way he ran through the line winning at Hawkesbury last time suggest that he should run a strong mile and a half. CURATA PRINCESS (3) had only been racing fairly but improved last time in a harder race, she will find this easier.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1400m
ORCEIN (3) hasn’t had a lot of luck early in the prep, he was held-up early in the straight before running on hard into a place at the Kenso track last time. Importantly he has placed at both runs here at Rosehill, he will be giving them a start but don’t mind him coming back in trip.
SPENCER (2) was never in the race resuming but produced a nice last furlong on the clock, what a great jockey change to with Nash going on. VEDDDER (6) was beaten by McCORMACK (1) last start after leading, he gets the blinkers off today and gets Tommy Berry replacing Jay Ford. McCormack was good in that win but was double figure odds and carries the extra weight.
Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1500m
STATUESQUELY (2) has placed at both runs this prep, she is getting a little costly for punters beaten as favourite at three of her last four runs. She has good tactical speed like the majority of the Gai/Bott runners, the key today is the wide gate, blinkers on and Tim Clark riding, all ticks for an all the way win.
WICKED WENCH (9) had one start in NZ before transferring to the Kris Lees yard, she won her maiden last time at Hawkesbury and was heavily backed. This is harder and she will need to settle better. ROCKAROSA (7) was a narrow winner at maiden level last start as favourite, she was entitled to win easier than she did and looks a good lay here. LEXI’S CHOICE (10) didn’t have a lot of luck last start and ran on hard to narrowly miss, she may be ridden for luck again here off the inside. She is a must include in all exotics.