September 23, 2020
Tips

Rosehill (Sat)

Canterbury

Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat May 16th

We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: Rail out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – MASKED CRUSADER

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Race 1: Highway Class 3 Handicap 1500m

LEG WORK (10) resumed with a maiden win at Wagga, he was heavily backed and stormed home from a mile back for an impressive win. He then was again at Wagga on Cup Day, got well back and showed a good turn-of-foot to motor home to win by almost 4 lengths. This is harder again, but he looks to have come back super.

Dangers:

LUNA MIA (1) is a dual-acceptor (also accepted at Scone on Friday), he didn’t have much luck when he was at Randwick three weeks ago in a similar Highway before hitting the line well. SHAMUSU SHO (6) is drawn out in the carpark, his last two wins in the country have been a combined 9.34 lengths, he has a good turn-of-foot and deserves his crack at one of these. RENT A ROCK (14) was poor in the Wagga Guineas, he has speed and gets a big jockey change.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 2400m

WILD IMPACT (13) won a 64 at Kembla with authority two starts back she was stuck wide and forced to make a mid-race move to lead and stuck on to win by almost 4 lengths. She ran on well to just miss in a blanket go at the Farm last start, this is harder, but she does carry no weight. Look for her getting home hard.

Dangers:

It looks a tough race on paper. HARPO MARX (10) comes through the same race as the top pick, he simply got too far back and did hit the line well. If he gets the back of the top pick in the run home, he could be the one. COSTELLO (1) won at the Kenso track after having a month off,  the second horse that day came out and won next start, He has had 4-weeks between runs again, expect him to be a lot closer to the speed than his two main rivals. FANCIFUL TOFF (2) brings some different form lines, Hughie gets the ride, he will probably have to sit parked.

Race 3: Woodlands Stakes 2YO Fillies 1100m

NEWSREADER (8) was big odds on debut on the Kenso track against a similar field, she jumped awkwardly and settled worse than mid-field. She was struggling for a run and held-up early in the straight, she ran on hard when the split came with the best last 400m of the day. The extra distance suits.

Dangers:

MACROURA (1) is undefeated after her first two starts, both of those wins have been on rain affected tracks so she won’t want this rain to stay away. She gets the awkward inside draw, happy to be against her if she starts favourite as she will need some luck. ZEFTABROOK (3) won the Wellington Boot at her first go out of maiden grade, she maps to get a soft run behind the speed off the fence and has trialed well. MARBOOSHA (4) is undefeated, she was good at maiden level at Muswellbrook and clearly improved taking out a mid-week race at Warwick Farm by almost 2 lengths. Harder again here.

Race 4: Inglis 3YO Guineas Set Weights 1400m

Only a small field but it looks a ripper of a race and probably the most anticipated of the day wit the quick back-up of MASKED CRUSADER (4). Those that backed him last week at Randwick were finding ways to re-invest their winnings at about the 600m mark, he was ridden aggressively and landed on the bunny. After cuddling him into the straight, Tommy Berry gave him a couple of digs and he powered away from his rivals before being eased down late. If similar tactics are adopted here, they won’t catch him.

Dangers:

DAWN PASSAGE (1) is the obvious danger, he was poor on the heavy track two back but it was hard not to be impressed by the speed he showed running over the top of them to score easily I the Hawkesbury Guineas. BANDERSNATCH (3) has speed, he led and tired at the back-end of his resuming run, he will be fitter here, but his chances will rely on what the favourite does? ROCHA CLOCK (5) has to be a drifter in the betting, I can’t see her starting single figures come jump time.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1100m

ADELONG (9) won her first three starts, she had trialed well prior to making her return to racing. She was at Canterbury three weeks ago as a short-priced favourite, sat behind the speed and kept coming in the straight with the best 800-200 sectional of the race. She should be up on the speed and did win her only other second-up run.

Dangers:

L’COSMO (10) must be so frustrating for connections, she has only won the one race but amazingly has run a place at 10 of her other 11 runs! It’s a s terrific effort to be so consistent given her get-back run-on style, look for her late again. LASHES (3) is resuming and has a good record fresh, she maps to get a soft run and has trialed well enough. LJUNBERG (2) is resuming with the blinkers on for the first time, he will get back in the run and hasn’t shown much at the trials, the blinkers may be the key.

Race 6: Luskin Star Stakes 1300m

Is GRAFF (1) too good a price here? Sure, he hasn’t won in a long time (89 weeks), but when was the last time he found himself in a race like this? He was only beaten half a length resuming after being slightly held-up at a vital stage. Last prep he was running around behind the best sprinters in the land, only 59 kg … is this finally his race to get back to the winner’s stall?

Dangers:

LANCIATO (4) stormed home in the same race as Ranier last time after having 7-weeks off, he is another that hasn’t won in more than 2 years! RANIER (3) resumed as a winner at Randwick, he produced the best overall sectionals of the race and this looks no harder? Look for him late. ELEVEN ELEVEN (9) will find this easier than two runs since resuming, he was good enough fresh with some good sectionals but was very flat last time. Will he settle closer today?

Race 7: Denises Joy Stakes 3YO Fillies 1100m

FITEUSE (5) has won 4 of 6, she resumed off an 18-week break at the Kenso track two weeks ago. She had trialed well, was solid in the betting starting as a $2.70 SP favourite. She sat three-wide no cover and was off the track throughout, she kept coming in the straight and after hitting the front at the furlong, kept going to win by almost 3 lengths. She failed at her only other second-up start but had a stack of excuses.

Dangers:

WAYUPINTHESKY (1) has trialed between runs, she was last at Randwick 6 weeks ago in a harder G3 race. She was held-up before getting out and hitting the line well, albeit well beaten by the impressive Rubisaki. AQUITAINE (4) is another resuming and doesn’t know how to run a bad race, she has trialed well, but she runs best when behind the speed with cover, I can’t see her getting that favourable map here. ENFLEURAGE (3), like many here is resuming, she was very good at all 5 runs last prep, she will roll forward from the wide gate and her chances rely on getting across to the rail first?

Race 8: Dark Jewel Classic Fillies and Mares 1400m

AMANGIRI (1) handles the wet well enough if the rain does come, she will be making her own luck up on the speed. Two back she was outclassed in the Coolmore on the heavy track then backed up two weeks later in eth Hawkesbury Cup and drove hard late to score. This is no harder, she goes on top in what loks a tough race.

Dangers:

DELECTATION GIRL (7) gets a couple of gear changes, she was also in the Coolmore last start and did produce the best 800m-400m sectional of the day. 5 weeks between runs a little concerning but she has had an easy trial at Gosford in that time. SWEET SCANDAL (4) had a big form turnaround when winning the Hawkesbury Crown at G3 level here three weeks ago, her sectionals were super from the back. Hopefully that wasn’t a one-off. DYSLEXIC (9) comes through that same race that Sweet Scandal won, she was held-up at a vital stage and was only beaten a half-length and meets her 2kg better off at the weights.

Race 9: Ortensia Stakes 1100m

DIRTY WORK (12) has won two in a row, last start at the Kenso track he was vetted at the barriers before settling wide with cover. He angled to the outside and crushed them in the way home, the only obstacle here looks to be the inside barrier? If the breaks come his way behind a hot speed likely to be set by the second pick, he will be too quick.

Dangers:

VILLAMI (3) will be up on the speed, if the track is favouring those on speed she will go to the top of the picks. You know what you will get with her, she has raced much harder opposition than this over the last 12 months. HANDLE THE TRUTH (5) sprinted nicely to get into the race but was only fair through the line late last time, he gets the pacifiers on and probably wasn’t as suited as he will be here. Nash sticks with the ride. GOD OF THUNDER (4) was a good winner resuming then put in a couple of poor runs. He stormed home late to miss by 0.3 lengths last time in an improved performance. He will be giving them a start and will need everything to go right.

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