March 31, 2020
Tips

Rosehill (Sat)

Kensington

Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat Mar 28th

We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – VILLAMI

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Race 1: BM88 Handicap 1400m

DIPLOMATICO (8) has not won in a while but he did have a year away from the racetrack before resuming here two weeks ago. He was a mile back and one-off the fence before running on hard producing the best last furlong of the race. Jumps from 1100m-1400m looks ideal.

Dangers:

KEN’S DREAM (2) is a dual acceptor, he has been tackling harder races than this of late. Placed at Listed level last start and prior to that was beaten 4 lengths by the star Master Of Wine. ROYAL CELEBRATION (10) has placed at his last couple, he was slightly held-up two back but appeared to have every chance last time when behind the speed. CONDOR (6) has been up for an eternity but is racing so consistently, a winner three starts back and has placed at both runs since, including the Newmarket at Newcastle last time at Listed level.

Race 2: 2YO Handicap 1400m

I AM SWERVING (7) ran on hard on debut from a mile back to place then again was good through the line for third in the Pago Pago last start. This is a lot easier, gets out to the 7 furlongs and with the two runs under his belt, should settle closer and be at full fitness.

Dangers:

TIME IS PRECIOUS (6) won on debut back in October, she placed up the straight at Flemington resuming then wasn’t far away in the Magic Night here at G2 level last time. Must be included in all bet types.  RETURN WITH HONOUR (5) will be well supported but has the horror draw out wide, AFTERMATH (2) won the Black opal Preview on debut then had every chance in teh BO last time. Draw a concern but does get JMac going on.

Race 3: Tulloch Stakes 3YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights 2000m

QUICK THINKER (1) is a Kiwi trained gelding has had one start here this campaign two weeks ago here at Rosehill on the heavy track. He wasn’t favoured the way the track was playing, he made up good ground behind the superstar Funstar and this looks a lot easier. There was a big gap to the next horse that day and he seemed to handle the conditions well.

Dangers:

ZEBROWSKI (5) won a Newcastle maiden resuming then went to the Kenso track and sat mid-field before showing a great turn-of-foot to win easily. This is harder but he has looked good at both of those soft track wins. PRIDE OF ADELAIDE (6) led all the way at a very short quote winning last time in his first go out of maiden grade. HE was dominant on the heavy track, can he pinch it here?  FORTRESS COMMAND (2) steps up in trip and gets the blinkers off, he was ok when the track was totally against him last start.

Race 4: Neville Selwood 4YO+ Set Weights and Penalties 2000m

SCARLET DREAM (9) goes on top in what looks a very poor race on paper. She was seventh officially behind Finche when second-up last campaign but was a huge run, hitting the line strong. She resumed at Caulfield and after settling last, stormed home to only go down by the narrowest of margins. She will start shorter than the $5.50 currently on offer and looks a super each-way bet if you can get evens the place.

Dangers:

NIGHT’S WATCH (2) has done very little since coming from the Weir yard but showed a stack of ability early in his career, is this the sort of race he needs to jump back into the winner’s circle? ALIFEROUS (8) will be giving them a start but does handle the wet ok, if the track is playing fair and the tempo is true, he can run into a place. MAID OF ORE (10) has placed at her last three including the Cups at Canberra and most recently at Albury, she was stuck wide early before moving to the death seat (outside leader) and stuck on well. Happy to take on the favourite Life Less Ordinary, that may be the way to play this race. Since his Wagga Cup win in 2018, he has had 19 starts for just the one win!

Race 5: Star Kingdom Stakes Quality 1200m

VILLAMI (9) looks the leader here, she has the wide draw but I love it when Clark is drawn out on favoured leaders. HE is always positive, he never looked like getting run down when resuming. If the track is playing to those on the speed, he looks one of the best of the day.

Dangers:

KEMENTARI (1) males his long-awaited return after failing at stud, scratched last week, we must remember he once started $6 against Winx at her peak? He has trialed well and with the blinkers off, just needs some luck getting away from the fence. HANDLE THE TRUTH (12) won at Canberra last start, this is harder but he was very impressive after sitting four-wide no cover. He has a terrific record second-up. GOD OF THUNDER (8) won at Randwick resuming, he was a little flat when second-up. He will probably get back from the draw, the 1200m a ???

Race 6: H.E. Tancred Stakes WFA 2400m

AVILIUS (1) won this race last year on a heavy track, he loves the sting out of the ground. He hasn’t hit the winners stall this time in but there was a lot to like about his run last week in the Ranvet, he was beaten out of sight but was not suited the way the track was and how the race panned out.

Dangers:

I was very keen on VERRY ELLEEGANT (9) last start, she was brilliant but did have every chance. She would have traded short in the run when she loomed up and went past the foreign horse last week, was that her chance? She may be giving the perfect cart up to the top pick? MUGATOO (6) was the spruik horse before getting beat by the international raider last week, eh had every chance but clearly has a lot of talent. CARIF (8) was held-up and only fair to the line last time, should be fully fit here third-up and loves the wet.

Race 7: Vinery Stud Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 2000m

With some doubt over the Kiwi running if the track is too wet, FUNSTAR (1) will start very short and looks a put-in take-out job. He is a superstar that settled further forward and led all the way last start in a similar field, the wet track suits and how do they run past her? She is a star.

Dangers:

PROBABEEL (2) is clearly the danger but will want a drying track, she got the better of Funstar fresh but had every chance last time. She will tun in the Quinella if she runs. The trouble is she will be giving the best horse a start, hard to see her running over the top. SUBPOENAED (6) has been good this campaign, her run in the Kembla Classic was enormous. She was back and wide before running on hard, this is a different league though. FASCINO (4) next best but for the minor spots only.

Race 8: Emancipation Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1500m

POHUTAKAWA (9) is one of mine, she always needs everything to go right as she will get back. The tracks have been against her a little this prep, she seems to handle the wet ok (not sure what happened last start) and I can see them hitting the outside and running on hard by this time of the day.

Dangers:

AMANGIRI (10) is resuming and has trialed well, tough ask out to the 1500m fresh, she will be up on the speed for a long way. She bolted ion on the heavy track trial recently. SWEET DEAL (8) was huge when resuming winning the Triscay after sitting wide early before working to the front, she led for a long way last time before being grabbed in the last strides. She will be hard to run down again. POSITIVE PEACE (14) is going for 5 straight wins, the last two have been on wet tracks but this is harder. The easy lead isn’t there for her either today, can she sit parked and win if she doesn’t cross?

Race 9: Doncaster Prelude 1500m

CASCADIAN (3) was very good fresh, he was a little unlucky last start I my opinion when held-up in the straight. People are potting the run but I thought it was better than what it reads. He has the horror draw, will get back and gets the huge jockey change with Nash going on replacing Schofield. The wet track should be no issue.

Dangers:

STAR OF THE SEAS (2) is a real winner, he got to the outside when resuming two weeks back and was way too good at G3 level. Nash takes the ride, look for him late. DESERT LORD (9) has the inside gate, not sure if that will be the place to be by this time of the day. He will be up on the speed but needs to relax more in the run. GAILO CHOP (1) is an interesting runner that was a dual acceptor, they scratched early to go to this. First-up without a trial off a Perth trip may be too much but he has class.

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