March 31, 2020
Tips

Rosehill (Sat)

Kensington

Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat Mar 21th

We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.

Track: Heavy 8. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – VERRY ELLEEGANT

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Race 1: Darby Munro Stakes 3YOP Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

KIAMICHI (2) is a dead-set wet tracker. She won the Magic Night and the Slipper this time last year on heavy tracks here. She was poor through the Autumn but has been ok this time in. Last start she led and over-raced behind two superstars. Back on the heavy track she will be hard to run past.

Dangers:

COSMIC FORCE (1) has been good at two previous second-up starts, he looks to have come back well enough but did have every possible chance when resuming. DAWN PASSAGE (3) hasn’t been seen since the Golden Rose last year, she was ridden quietly and found the line ok in a race where it was favourable to be closer to the speed. He has trialed well enough. SANGRIA (7) led all the way up the straight at Flemington last start at Listed level, she may have to sit parked here.

Race 2: N.E. Manion Cup 2400m

This looks a much better option for MUGATOO (7) who is also engaged later in the card in the Ranvet. He is undefeated since arriving in Australia, stepping up in class at each start and handling it with ease. He was brilliant winning the Canberra Cup last time, he will be saved for one run late.

Dangers:

SUPERNOVA (9) looks to have come back well, he ran on hard first-up from ma mile back in the lead-up at Randwick a fortnight ago. He has a good second-up record and will be better for the run. WU GOK (5) will find this tougher but he is just all about the wet track, he will sit up on the speed and keep sticking on after they look like running straight past him. YOUNG RASCAL (1) is an interesting runner over from the UK via an unplaced run in the G1 Case in Hong Kong. Tough ask first-up, watch the betting with him.

Race 3: Epona Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1900m

GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (2) was dominant when winning first-up leading all the way at Caulfield, albeit on a track that may have favoured those on the speed. Last time at Flemington he led again but had excuses, featuring heavily in the steward’s report with the vet post-race. See how the track is playing early, he will be hard to run past.

Dangers:

SAVACOOL (6) hasn’t had much luck with two starts this campaign, she hit the line hard when finally out fresh over an unsuitably shorter trip then again was good late last time over a mile. CRYPTIC JEWEL (14) is a winner on a heavy track previously, she ran on hard from a mile back last start and looks suited getting out in trip. LUVALUVA (1) won two in a row at Randwick before going to NZ for G1 glory unsuccessfully. She has had 6-weeks between runs, should be trying to find a spot with cover mid-field eearly.

Race 4: Ranvet Stakes WFA 2000m

VERRY ELLEEGANT (5) is not one of mine but happy to put her on top here presuming that it will still be a heavy track come race time. Six of her seven wins have been on rain affected going, she should be fully fit here and was good last start just finding one better. C’mon the rain!

Dangers:

AVILIUS (1) hit the line well two back then was very flat in the Australian Cup. Wet track shouldn’t bother him but he continues to disappoint? ADDEYBB (2) is the most interesting runner of the day, He has won 7 of 15 in the UK, including a G3 heavy track win two starts ago. Beaten narrowly in a G1 at his most recent start, watch the betting for him first-up in Oz. MUGATOO (3) (is also accepted for Race 2) will find this as his toughest test since arriving on our shores. He could not have been more impressive in his three wins here, he has a good turn of foot when asked, just needs to be saved for one run.

Race 5: George Ryder Stakes WFA 1500m

SUPER SETH (7) was brave in defeat last start when sitting outside the leader. He was brilliant winning first-up and stepping up in trip shouldn’t hurt as he won the Guineas in the Spring over a mile. He should have the tactical advantage over his main rival. The only two scenarios I will play are him controlling and hard to urn past or getting attacked and the Kiwi will be too good.

Dangers:

TE AKAU SHARK (2) is the obvious danger coming off back to back G1 wins, firstly in NZ then a brilliant win at Randwick when running on hard form a mile back. Wet track suits! Don’t have him going around a loser. DREAMFORCE (4) looks the leader and although he has run well in the wet, still yet to record a win at 8 runs on rain-affected tracks. THE BOSTONIAN (3) was a good winner resuming but was aided by how the track played. He should be one-out one-back in the run but will need to be at his best.

Race 6: Rosehill Guineas 3YO Set Weights 2000m.

SHADOW HERO (2) was solid from the back when resuming over a shorter trip on a track where the back-markers were getting no favours. He then came out and was brilliantly ridden to win the Randwick Guineas on a sift track. The conditions shouldn’t worry him and hard to see them turning the tables on him here.

Dangers:

WARNING (3) was backed as if three was no settling at Randwick, he looked to have every chance after settling closer in the run but wasn’t good enough? Hard to ignore all that cash for him though. CASTELVECCHIO (1) has only been fair in two lead-ups, he was all the rave after his brilliant run in the Cox Plate but where to if he can’t win here? Over-rated? SHERWOOD FOREST (4) won the NZ Derby last start and has a great record in the wet, the Kiwi’s are winning everything!

Race 7: Golden Slipper 2YO Set Weights 1200m

HANSEATIC (2) was all the rage after three wins to start his career, one of them from a seemingly impossible position. He was good in the Diamond (Sp’d favourite) after giving them a start on a track where everyone said you had to be on the speed, is he the forgotten horse? He looks enormous value.

Dangers:

FARNAN (3) has been brilliant at two starts this time in, he sat outside the speed and was way too good in the Silver Slipper then led all the way and never looked like getting run down last time in the Todman. Handles the wet, he has drawn wide but should have no trouble getting up outside the speed. The draw just means a better price! TAGALOA (1) was enormous winning the Blue Diamond sitting three-wide no cover throughout. She wasn’t given much chance in the Todman and looked to be just getting his eye in, loved the way he hit the line though. MAMARGAN (7) sat up on the speed to win the Skyline at big odds, this is harder but he was impressive and does get the services of Nash!

Race 8: The Galaxy Handicap 1100m

If COSMIC FORCE (15) gets a run as the first emergency then he goes on top taking on the older horses. He has a stack of talent, was brilliant resuming producing the best last furlong of the day but just wasn’t favoured by the bias. Down on a light weight with Bossy riding (Brutal in the Doncaster rings a bell), have seen this scenario before!

Dangers:

PIERATA (1) is the best horse in the race, goes well enough in the wet but will he just find them too nippy over the 11000m fresh? This is certainly not his grand final. JUNGLE EDGE (6) is what he is, a dead-set wet tracker. He will be up on the speed and connections will be doing the rain dance all week.  KEMENTARI (3) has been gelded and been off the scene for more than a year. He has trialed well (as he always seems to).. And this guy did start 5/1 against Winx not that long ago! A cracking type but a headcase no doubt.

Race 9: Birthday Card Fillies and Mares 1200m.

This looks the toughest race of the day by far and those playing in the Quaddies should be going very wide! The two Godolphin runners RESIN (4) and MANICURE (3) look to have a chance. The latter is resuming and has a great first-up record and the former has had two runs back, gets the horrible draw but the big field should ensure a genuine tempo. INVICTUS SALUTE (9) should roll forward form the middle draw and will be hard to run down if able to lead, RIVER BIRD (8) was good last time with the best last 800m of the race. Look for her late. Good luck with this one, there is many other chances as well!

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