Rosehill Racing Tips -Sat Nov 30
We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.
Track: Soft 5. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 8 – HANDLE THE TRUTH
Race 1: 2YO Handicap 1100m
A tough start to the day with a 2YO followed by two Highways. Five of the seven here are at the races for the first time. MUNTASERA (1) is not one of those, she debuted up the straight at Flemington three weeks ago as favourite, settled just off the speed, joined in to lead at the clocktower but just found one better.
CHILLIWACK (3) from the Godolphin yard and
MYSTIC VEIN (4) trained out west by Gary Portelli are both on debut, they come through the same trial at Warwick Farm last time finishing first and second respectively. AVNO DOUBT (5) won a Kembla Grange trial by 5 lengths leading into this. Obviously you have to respect any serious money, especially closer to jump time.
Race 2: Highway Class 2 Handicap 1200m
With so many acceptances, the Highway has been split in two this week. PAUPER (2) looks to be gong through the grades well with wins at his last couple. A Moruya maiden winner two back before winning at Nowra last time, he has a good turn-if-foot when saved for one run.
PELOSO LASS (8) is horribly drawn out wide, she will get back but if she can find the finishing speed she showed at Dubbo when winning last start, she will be gathering them in late.
ASUDEM (10) is another drawn poorly but will get back, he ran over the top of them to score at Goulburn last time as favourite but was favored the way the race was run. CASSY’S SISTER (4) is also drawn out in the carpark, she had every chance last time at Hawkesbury and will go forward and make her own luck. She bolted in two starts back at Coonamble and was good in a recent trial at Scone where she sat outside the speed.
Race 3: Highway Class 2 Handicap 1200m
LUFF (4) was beaten a long way at Newcastle last star in a harder Class 3 Highway but had a torrid run four wide without cover. He won at Cessnock prior to that after a soft run and maps similarily here off barrier 3.
CONGREGATE (5) won back-to-back races to start this prep, he then went down fighting after racing on the speed at Scone last time in a BM66. He has had five weeks in between runs, he trialed at Scone recently, sat three-wide and although well beaten, wasn’t pushed right out. Cassy’s Sister from Race 2 beat him home in that trial, that may give you a lead. FEARNLEY (6) has good speed and should be making his own luck, he led them up in a harder Highway here two back before narrowly missing at Ballina last time. SPLIT (7) is drawn poorly, his only win was the Inglis sale race at Scone over the carnival. He improved last start and gets Nash on.
Race 4: 3&4YO BM72 Handicap 1300m
SUAVE (5) is stepping up in grade after winning his first two starts, he led all the way on debut at maiden level then was heavily backed at Wyong last start after sitting on the speed. He draws out, this looks tougher again but he has plenty of upside.
HE’S A HOTSHOT (4) has a terrific overall record and resumed well at Newcastle a fortnight ago, he was brave in defeat running third after sitting three and four wide without cover throughout. BRAZILICA (9) maps well, she had every chance against the girls last time and will improve off the run. JEN RULES (6) is on the 7-day back-up, she hit the line well at Kembla last week and should benefit if the speed is on early.
Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1100m
FEEL THE KNIGHT (11) is a last start Highway winner at Randwick, he was mid-field in the run before getting clear and running over the top of them. He has won a trial nicely since and draws to get an economical run. This is no harder
LJUNBERG (2) is drawn out wide, he resumed here in a harder race a month ago, he was well in the market but after being slowly away he never really got into the race. This is easier and he has been good at the trials since. MANSA MUSA (5) led all the way in an easier race on the Kenso track last time, a lot will depend on how hard he has to work to get across from the wide draw. COMMON PURPOSE (9) is resuming and has a terrific record fresh (4:2-2-0), Hughie goes on, hopefully he is positive early and goes forward.
Race 6: ATC Cup Quality 2000m
ALWARD (4) has won two of his last five races since heading north to Queensland and has been very consistent, he doesn’t have a lot of brilliance but you know he will keep grinding away up on the speed.
It will be each-way odds the field no doubt with this lot, GREY LION (1) has to lump the top weight but will find this a lot easier than recent starts, Ok in the Geelong Cup them 4 lengths away in the Queen Elizabeth last time at Group Three level, he will keep coming. HOUSE OF CARTIER (12) was very impressive at Newcastle last start, she ran through the line hard winning and the 2000m looks to suit. HIGH BRIDGE (10) is resuming, a tough ask first-up at the 2000m but never underestimate the Waller yard.
Race 7: Festival Stakes Quality 1500m
RENEWAL (3) comes back from the Hunter last start, he had a soft run on the fence well back but struggled to get much room and get out when the runs came. He got clear at the furlong pole and hit the line well, he is drawn wide here but will get back anyway.
BOBBING (10) has had two runs back from the paddock, he has run on well at both of them from a mile back attacking the line, including the $1.3M Kosciuszko when resuming. This is easier. DON’T GIVE A DAMN (12) carried the big weight to win the time honoured Snake Gully Cup last start, dropping to 53kg for this I expect him to be on the speed for a long way. LIVE AND FREE (9) gets the blinkers on for the first time, he resumed at Newcastle a fortnight ago and simply got too far back. His record is much better when second-up.
Race 8: Starlight Stakes Quality 1100m
HANDLE THE TRUTH (7) won the $1.3M Kosciuszko two back and then went to the Goulburn Cup last tie and ran second after having every chance. This looks no harder, beautifully drawn in six, he should be straight behind the speed early and looks a huge jockey change with Nash going back on.
BON AMIS (1) ran third in the Hunter last start a fortnight ago, he hit the line well and has a terrific record second-up (5-3-1-0). He may have to sit wide without cover though, I doubt they can ride him back and win. GLENALL (3) was very heavily backed late on the Kenso track last start to win producing the best overall sectionals of the race. SANDBAR (6) is a two-time winner here at the track including last start in a BM88 after a soft rails run.
Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1500m
Play very wide here in the Quaddie, no idea here what will win or what will even start favourite! TUNERO (8) looks to have come back well and could be real value here at double figure odds, he clearly wants further but attacked the line hard. He was 50/1 last time so expect him to drift in the betting during the week.
REFLECTIVITY (1) sat up outside the speed when resuming at Flemington over 1400m, he stuck on well enough to be beaten just over 2 lengths. It may be the hardest track in Oz to sit parked over the 7 furlongs. CONVINCED (12) was ridden closer to the speed when winning at Hawkesbury two back, he then was outclassed I the Spring Stakes at Newcastle last time, he was beaten under 2 lengths and didn’t have a lot of luck in the run home. STRYKE ROCK (7) will be get back early and give them a start, it looks a positive jockey change with Hughie jumping on.