November 17, 2019
Tips

Rosehill (Sat)

Newcastle

Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat Aug 31

We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – BIVOUAC

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Race 1: Highway Class 2 Handicap 1400m

Pass. As I said last week, bets to get to the pub late and be there for Race 2, first leg of the early Quaddie and closer to the happy hour starting. These Highways are too hard, certainly no easier today with a capacity field of 16. If you want something for interest, SCARLET MISSILE (7) is consistent having placed at her last five, LADY DEMI (5) was unlucky at Randwick last time in a Highway, forget she went around there but where does she get to from the draw? EUROSAY (4) will be hard to beat if he can bring his synthetic track form to the turf and YARRINUP FLYER (9) has won two in a row on the north coast, she will be making her own luck up on the speed.

Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1500m

WAKING MOMENT (11) looks a great each-way bet at double figure odds, she was good when heavily backed two starts back at Randwick and then was on the Kenso track last time and had no luck against the boys, she ran on well late with some nice sectionals late. She is still yet to win out of maiden grade but at the price, bet win and place.

Dangers:

WIMLAH (7) comes through that same race and made some ground, she has had two runs at the track here this prep and has been good at both of them. RE EDIT (1) is resuming, she may want further after running in a Derby last start, but she has won both starts when fresh. HELGA (5) looks the leader if they choose to kick through from the inside gate, she has been racing well this time in and had excuses when she faded last time after the saddle shifted. Tough race.

Race 3: Colts Geldings and Entires BM78 Handicap 1500m

THY KINGDOM COME (2) was vetted at the start two weeks ago (never a good thing?) before sitting outside the speed, hitting the front early in the straight only to be run down in the last few strides. JMac stays on, should roll forward again and sit outside the speed and be making his own luck.

Dangers:

DANAWI (4) goes up in class but drops in weight and Nash goes on from last time, he did a few things wrong when running on well enough into third. He will be ridden back again and hopefully just saved for one run with a nice three-wide cart into it. MAPMAKER (6) made up good ground behind the top pick last time from mid-field and maps well again, ADANA (11) next best but is poison odds OP, he is still yet to win since opening the account in a Warwick Farm maiden back almost a year ago. He will be a huge drifter in the betting, surely starts closer to $8 than his current $4.50 quote.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 2000m

Tough, tough race on paper. MISSYBEEL (14) was ok in defeat last week in a similar race, on the quick back-up here and the middle draw I expect that she will be looking for the top. She had to sit outside the leader last time and weakened, it will be a different story if she can land on the bunny.

Dangers:

A very open race. HUMBOLT CURRENT (8) has been good in two runs south of the border since resuming, this certainly looks no harder. He maps beautifully, huge jockey change with Michael Dee going off and JMac on. COSTELLO (5) has been consistent this time in and handles all conditions, he will be giving them a start but if the luck comes his way, he will be finishing hard. NASHUEL (4) has only bbeen fair this campaign, he gets the blinkers on for the first time which may sharpen him up.

Race 5: San Domenico Stakes 3YO Sert Weights and Penalties 1100m

BIVOUAC (3) was all the talk after his brilliant return to racing as a 3YO at Caulfield last start, he was beautifully ridden behind the leaders, eased around them and showed a brilliant turn-of-foot to put a gap on them in the straight without really having to go for him. He could have a huge Spring against his own age group.

Dangers:

YES YES YES (1) won the Todman at Group Two level in the Autumn after running on hard from the back, he was well in the market ion the Slipper but never got into the race and was sent to the paddock. EXCEEDANCE (6) has only been to the races twice, a narrow winner on debut before charging home to narrowly miss in an easier race, it was a good effort to get so close in a race where it was more suited to be on the speed. Watch the betting for him resuming but he looks a big drifter in the market. CATCH ME (5) showed plenty early in her career, she won a Blue Diamond Preview before her form went south. She may have come on after the long break.

Race 6: Premiers Cup Quality 1900m

WOLFE (9) looks to have come back real well from the paddock and could be in for a big Spring. HE was at the Kenso track a fortnight ago, sat up outside the speed and just kept grinding away in the straight and was far too good after doing the work. He will roll forward again and make his own luck, love these Gai horse early in their prep.

Dangers:

SO YOU WIN (7) comes through that same race and was also fresh off a 7-week break, he was mid-field before producing nice late sectionals to get into a place in a race where it was more favoured to be on the speed. GIRL TUESDAY (6) is probably the best bred horse on the card, she promised so much early in her career before showing nothing early last prep. She really came good late before going to the paddock, she flew home over 7 furlongs resuming but this is a sharp rise in distance second-up. She has the talent but very happy to lay her in this and can see her a big drifter in the betting. COME PLAY WITH ME (5) is an interesting runner, the former WA gelding is now with the Waller yard and has trialed really well.

Race 7: Ming Dynasty Quality 1400m

ALLIGATOR BLOOD (1) is an interesting runner coming down from Qld, he is undefeated after three starts. He resumed at Doomben three weeks ago sat up on the speed and drew away to win easily. This is harder but he has great natural speed, should roll forward and if he gets cover, he may be able to explode late. I like to watch the betting late with these Qld visitors, if they are off late then stay away.

Dangers:

QUICK THINKER (2) is an interesting runner that won his maiden race in NZ before going to the paddock, resuming today, he wouldn’t be here if they didn’t have a big opinion of him. ACADEMY (4) is undefeated after two starts, drawn the inside, he has enough speed to lead but up in this grade, he should take a sit and have something to offer late. SUBEDAR (5) is undefeated after two starts, he has a great turn-of-foot but happy to take him on, purely on the fact that he will be giving them a start. See how the track is playing early in the day.

Race 8: BM88 Handicap 1200m

FASIKA (12) is undefeated after three starts, she sat outside the leader when thrown in the deep end at Listed level last start and stuck on well. Unfortunately, she bled and was sent out, she is drawn beautifully and looks to have plenty of upside. As always with this yard, I would love to see some money for her.

Dangers:

BEAU IDEAL (6) is an interesting runner for the Blue army with Nash riding. He is a French import that has only missed a place once at 6 career starts, he was a winner on debut and his only other fresh run he was narrowly beaten at Group Three level. He has trialed ok, watch the betting. HAUT BRION HER (8) has the wide draw after winning four of five in her career, she usually likes to race on the speed so expect her to go forward. She would need to be able to control the tempo from outside the leader to win from that spot. In saying that, she was well into the red last start against the girls, brained them and now you are getting $7 or $8? DESERT LORD (7) was brilliant before going to the paddock, bolting in at a similar grade race to this. He has trialed well, the inside gate will be tricky as I have him worse than mid-field.

Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1100m

BLEU ROCHE (5) creates interest, now with the Snowden yard she showed plenty of talent in Victoria with the old yard as a 3YO, she has trialed well and would love to see some money for her on race-day. She maps to get a great run in transit and gets a few gear changes.

Dangers:

ROOSEVELT (8) resumed at Canterbury, he ran third but was only beaten 0.3 lengths. He has good tactical speed and will be looking for the top early. He has won second-up previously as he is today. GOD OF THUNDER (9) has the wide draw, he weaved through runners and ran on hard resuming to narrowly miss. Second-up last campaign he was outclassed at listed level, if he gets cover behind the speed, he will be hard to hold out. NOVEMBER MAN (10) comes through that same form line, he was also well back and after easing around runners and getting to the outside, hit the line hard for third.

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