November 17, 2019
Tips

Rosehill (Sat)

Newcastle

Rosehill Racing Tips – Sat July 27

We will be at Rosehill this Saturday.

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – RIVER BIRD

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Race 1: 2YO Handicap 1200m

TRUE DETECTIVE (1) was a narrow but impressive winner on debut with a gap to third, he was sent straight to the paddock and resumed here a fortnight ago. He had a perfect run in transit, hit the lead before being headed late. he didn’t shirk the task and was beaten the smallest margin with daylight to third. He should roll forward again and even if he has to sit wide with that run under his belt, he should be too good for these.

Dangers:

SATIN SOCKS (12) won her maiden at Kembla last month, she then went to an easier race at Warwick Farm and had no luck. She was beaten under two lengths but never really got a crack at them, she looks to have come back well. LUCICELLO (7) was ridden more conservatively last time, sat back last at the Kenso track and really let down strongly to bolt in, running away. Happy to take her on though in this company if she is to be ridden back again. BELITSA (6) is consistent, but it is hard to see her turning the tables on the top pick from when we last saw them. Minor place chance only.

Race 2: Highway Class 3 Set Weights 1500m

Anyone that follow’s this site knows that I am not a big fan of these Highway’s as a betting proposition and this is no exception. SMOODGE (11) looks to be a filly on the way up, she has won two in a row and has good tactical speed, she has also showed see can work early and still have something left at the back-end. ASSAULT’N’BATHORY (5) was ok in a Class 2 Highway here a month ago and will try and lead all the way. ONEMORE SAPPHIRE (4) ran on hard to win at Grafton over the carnival. PAT’S NIPPER (2) was well ridden but just not good enough at Tamworth last time and is very consistent.

Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1200m

STELLA SEA SUN (5) has not missed a place in 5 starts this prep winning two of them, she showed a good turn-of-foot on the very heavy going last time to score comfortably but does have to step up in grade here. She maps to get a beautiful sit behind the leaders again and Avdulla replacing Shinn is certainly no negative.

Dangers:

CONNEMARA (2) has had 5 weeks between runs, she had her chances at two runs this prep but narrowly missed both times. She has been given a very easy trial to keep the fitness edge, likely to get further back here she should finish hard. JARDIN ROUGE (3) is an interesting runner. She won her last four before going to the paddock and resumed with a crushing win at Ipswich, hard to fault her Queensland form and comes into this fresh off a month’s break and a trial win. MALEA MAGIC (4) is a winner, she was only beaten just under 2 lengths in the Ramornie last start, she had put together three straight wins before that and handles all conditions. A good race where I expect the form to hold up well going forward.

Race 4: BM88 Handicap 1350m

RIVER BIRD (5) has won four of five this time in, from bolting in at her maiden at Wyong back in the middle of May, to her last start win here at the track a fortnight ago when she produced the best closing sectionals to get up in the last few strides. Drawn well, Kathy is riding well, look for her to be stalking the leaders at the top of the straight.

Dangers:

FORTENSKY (2) was good behind her last time but did have every chance, she was fresh and with the added fitness may be able to turn the tables. GRESHAM (1) has the awkward inside alley as she will get back, she has been consistent this prep but giving those two a start she will need everything to go right and be ridden for luck to win. MAPMAKER (7) has good tactical speed and no doubt the Bossman will try and use her early to find the front, that may just set it up perfectly for the top pick though.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 2400m

The connections of ILWENDO (6) indicated two starts back that they wanted to ride the horse closer at Randwick, but the horse was forced to work too early to lead and faded late. They sent him to Brisbane last time and began well and landed on the bunny, gave nothing else a chance and won by almost 5 lengths. He does step up to the 2400m but if he gets a soft lead, they will be flat-out catching him.

Dangers:

KAAPFEVER (4) has been up for an eternity but is coming off back-to-back wins. He will be giving them a start but if they do go hard early, he will be finishing as good as any. CEDAR GRANDE (2) travels up the Hume with some good form of late, she has been racing against the girls down south and gets the added bonus if Hughie taking the steer. He is as good as any on making the right decisions early, she can go forward or back. JAKE’S HILL (8) has shown good tactical speed of late but may be better suited here taking the sit off the inside gate, he didn’t run out the mile and a half last time when leading.

Race 6: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m

FRONT SIGHT (8) has not missed a place in his five start career. He was good on the speed resuming when beaten on his merits at Warwick Farm but it was daylight to third, went to Wyong as a ridiculously short-priced favourite after that and bolted in to get the maiden win. He had every chance last time at 66 grade after a perfect ride but did try hard, blinkers on and Avdulla riding well, he should be on the speed for a long way and be hard to run down.

Dangers:

WIMLAH (5) was the horse that beat him last time producing some good sectionals late, just a question of how much start will she be giving away and does meet him 2kg worse at the weights. LIGULATE (3) is a former Godolphin runner now with the Cody Morgan stable at Tamworth, he trialed ok but always wary of them when leaving that stable. MY DEMETRA (11) will also be looking for the lead early, she has been racing well but this is clearly harder but does carry no weight after the claim.

Race 7: Winter Challenge 1500m

SEAWAY (6) has a superb record second-up as he is today, he resumed here a month ago on the heavy track and was stuck wide throughout but didn’t shirk the task and was only beaten just under two lengths. He will go forward from the wide draw, has a great record on the slow tracks also and if able to control the speed, he will be hard to run past.

Dangers:

GAULOIS (5) was the winner of that race and has since won well since, he has the wide draw but will get back anyway. Look for him late. ECKSTEIN (3) beat a similar field in the Winter Stakes last start when running on from the back, he has to carry the extra weight but loses nothing with Bowman replacing Shinn. STAMPEDE (1) loves the wet tracks and any more rain around will suit.

Race 8: July Sprint 1100m

Have to stick with the likely favourite here BON AMIS (4). He was good at Listed level when runner-up resuming then was here at Rosehill a month ago and was in the wrong part of the track to make ground up along the inside. He stuck on ok and was only beaten 2.6 lengths, from gate 7 Hughie jumps on and he should be able to get to the outside and run over the top late.

Dangers:

The big question is with the new addition to the Kris Lees stable DELECTATION GIRL (1). The former US sprinter/miler won four races in North America, has had 41 weeks between runs but has trialed well. Watch the betting late to see if any signs from the mounting yard tell us she is ready to go, if playing Quaddies she is a must include. I would be happy to play them two out, TOP STRIKER (6) was ok in the Ramornie last time although he was a little one-paced and MALAHAT (7) is another ex-Godolphin runner going around for a new stable and has trialed well enough.

Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1100m

GREYWORM (1) has not missed a place in six career starts and has won both fresh runs as he is here today. A little interesting that they have bought him here for his first-up assignment, he ahas good speed and will be working forward from the wide gate. If the money comes for him late the confidence will be high.

Dangers:

DEITY (8) has the fitness advantage over her main rival, she has placed at all three runs this campaign but is likely to be giving him a big start. OXFORD TYCOON (10) handles all conditions well, he has been consistent this prep barring the run here two runs back where he over-race badly and it told at the back-end. If he can settle better, he should be on the speed for a long way. PRIME CANDIDATE (7) had been going through the grades nicely before going to the paddock, he has obviously had issues as he has been off the scene for well over a year. Watch the betting with him late for money from the yard.

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