September 23, 2019
Tips

Randwick (Sat)

Randwick

Randwick Racing Tips – Sat Sept 7

We will be at Randwick this Saturday.

Track: Soft 7. Rail: Out 8m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 6 – ZOUSTYLE

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Race 1: 3YO BM72 Handicap 1300m

I am really looking forward to this 3Yo race more than the walk in the park later in the card. Wellington Boot winner SUPERIUM (1) controversially lost the Up and Coming Stakes last time on protest when clearly doing the better through the line. He will only improve off that run and the small field suits, as does the wide draw.

Dangers:

PANDEMIC (2) hasn’t missed a beat winning both his starts, this is obviously harder but Tommy Berry is riding with a stack of confidence at the moment. YAO DASH (4) bolted in by 3.5 lengths on debut at Canterbury a couple of weeks ago, sat up outside the speed and just ran them off their feet from the point of the turn. He will give them something to catch, as long as th top pick is not alongside him he may lead for a long way. FUNSTAR (3) is undefeated also after two starts, he handles the wet tracks well but the class rise is significant. He has trialed ok but I am very confident he will drift and happy to lay him.

Race 2: Highway Class 3 Handicap 1200m

No thanks! Why have they made the HIghway the second race on the card and that great little 3YO the first! I have no confidence here, LUNA MIA (11) resumed with a nice win but is drawn horribly, LOGAN RIVER (2) is consistent and should be up on the speed if he gets away cleanly, HIT THE TARGET (4) is resuming and has trialed ok and CHARLOTTE’S HEART (10) won an easier Highway here last time quite easily. Tough race.

Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1100m

Bjorn Baker looks to hold the key here, MISS INVINCIBLE (3) ahead of BALLISICA (7), both from his stable. Miss Invincible comes through a good form race on the inner track last time, she over-raced behind the speed but kept coming in the straight. The winner has since come out and won during the week and the second horse won last Saturday. Ballistica won at Warwick Farm running on hard from the back producing the best sectionals of the race late. INVICTUS SALUTE (2) is resuming, she has trialed well and loves the sting out of the ground. She has versatility and if the rain is around, she will rocket to top pick. BLEU ROCHE (1) is now with the Snowden yard and gets a stack of gear changes, she wasn’t beaten far behind Libertini in a recent trial and I expect her to be well backed on race day.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 1200m

BALLER (3) will find this easier than what he raced fresh, and he is the top pick, but he looks poison odds early in the week. HE has good tactical speed and the wide draw which is a plus as he should be able amble across outside the speed, he hasn’t paced in three runs at the track and hasn’t placed in two second-up runs. Wait until late to back him as there will be resistance surely?

Dangers:

CONDOR (6) has the blinkers off and probably gets a little further back than what we were used to with him last prep. He was off the scene for well over a year before resuming with a win early this prep, the 7-week freshen-up should have done him the world of good. ALL TOO FREE (7) was a good winner of an easier race at Canterbury last time, he was mid-field in the run but had to do all the chasing. WANDER (10) will be huge odds but gets back to more favourable conditions today, throw him in all exotics if the track is rated slow or worse.

Race 5: Furious Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1200m

Hard to see LIBERTINI (2) not continuing her winning run but she is not going to be backable odds, Wednesday around the $1.20 mark and even shorter! She is a star, was breathtaking resuming although the race was perfectly set up for her. She meets an easier field here, she will be winning. I am very keen on VILLAMI (4) to run second though and may give her a run for her money. Sure, she was well beaten a fortnight ago when they met but she went hard in front outside the leader and set it up for the star filly. If she gets to the rail first, she will still be bobbing late. PROBABEEL (3) is a star Kiwi that was super at her first two Australian runs, she will be giving them a start though and will finish hard. If the track is wet, KIAMICHI (1) has to come into consideration and that may be the only way we see the favourite drift any in the betting.

Race 6: Concorde Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1000m

What a ripping sprint race to kick off the campaign of 6 of the best in the business. I am going with the new guy on the scene ZOUSTYLE (6), in fact I think he is the best of the day. He is undefeated after 6 starts but has only been beating up on his own age group in Qld. He resumes today stepping up against the best of the best, but wow, his trial was superb. The speed will be good, he has the ability to sit outside the leader or the box seat, and I just think his acceleration will be too much for them fresh.

Dangers:

NATURE STRIP (3) bolted in resuming last prep and Waller has stated that he is settling better now, has trialed well and is very speedy. His run in the Doomben 10,000 was unbelievable after missing the start, would prefer him to be drawn wider. PIERATA (2) will be the one that won’t be in the early speed battle, he may find the 1000m too short but will be rattling home. SUNLIGHT (4) goes well fresh, she has won 3 Group Ones in her last 5 runs, the two failures were both at G1 level also, up the straight in the Lightning beaten 0.4 lengths and well beaten in the TJ Smith into 3rd after a torrid run. Fantastic race. The one that can’t win is Redzel. I can see him being a huge drifter when the market % gets down near 100%, his time has come and gone.

Race 7: Chelmsford Stakes WFA 1600m

FINCHE (3) is an import that was sent here to contest the Melbourne Cup last year and ran a credible fourth, first-up at the mile may be a little short but his latest trial was super. The times weren’t great but the ease with which he was running through the line whilst horses around him were ridden out was impressive. He has won at the mile previously, when last in Europe fresh he was a winner at Group Three level. Is he the knockout horse here? Oh yeah, he has been gelded also since last in work. He was $26 in the Cup last year, you can get better than that now, maybe have something small as he looks to have come back real well.

Dangers:

AVILIUS (1) is hard to go past after his super fresh run. Sure, he was beaten as favourite by a 40/1 chance, but he had the best closing sectionals of the race and is much better suited at the mile. He loves it here, will be mid-field and closing the best. I can’t take even money about him though. SAMADOUBT (2) looks to get an easy lead again as T Clark will carve him over form the outside, but he would need to get some very soft sectionals to be holding them off this time. Do we want to be taking $10 when he was $0 las time? ANGEL OF TRUTH (11) is a Derby winner at his last start, any rain around won’t hurt his chances and he has won 2/3 fresh.

Race 8: Tramway Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

KOLDING (3) on top (mainly because I want to take on the Kiwi), he really went through the grades in a long campaign last time, he won his maiden fresh and the prep culminated in a Group 2 win in Queensland in the Guineas. He is beautifully drawn in 5, has trialed well and after a well-deserved spell, looks set for a big Spring.

Dangers:

TE AKAU SHARK (2) is the aforementioned Kiwi that will start favourite and is also top pick for the Epsom in a month, he has a stack of talent, was super when beaten across the ditch resuming but I just want to see him have one run here first. He looks the best horse in the race, but I don’t want to be taking 7/4 about a horse that is going to get back having his first run in Oz. DREAMFORCE (4) is a very consistent and goes well fresh, he will be up on the speed for a while, INVINCIBLE GEM (8) has maybe over-achieved at her last couple in races where she was suited, no idea where she will get to from the draw and will need a lot of luck or a brilliant ride, probably both.

Race 9: BM94 Handicap 1500m

SPECIAL MISSILE (2) goes on top in what is a very open race. He resumed and was beaten on his merits when up on the speed on the Kenso track three weeks ago, has the advantage that he will be making his own luck up on the speed in the big field.

Dangers:

The interesting runner is ROHERYN (17) if he gets a start as the second emergency. He ran on ok in a race where it was much more advantageous to be up on the speed, gets the addition of the blinkers and has a great SP profile. Poorly drawn and may not get a start, but if he does, he will be charging late. JUNIPAL (12) is also accepted in Melbourne but must be thrown in if he accepts here. RE EDIT (15) is resuming and has won both of her previous fresh runs. She was right out to the Derby trip of 2400m in Qld last start so may need further, but she can stick with them early here and will give a sight.

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