Newcastle Racing Tips -Sat Nov 16
We will be at Newcastle this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 5 – RULE THE WORLD
Race 1: BM88 Handicap 1850m
Tough race to start the day. RAPIDO CHAPARRO (1) was too bad to be true last start in town, he was coming off a Port Macquarie Cup win where he led all the way. Huge jockey change with Nash replacing Robbie Dolan, he will lead again and be very hard to rundown.
FALCON ISLAND (7) maps beautifully, he has been racing well and gets a similar soft run behind the leader as last start when placing in town. He did have every chance though. SIR PIPPIN (5) has only had the one start back, he ran on hard and was held-up late, probably should have nearly won the race. He has won two from three when second-up. MASTER SHUHOOD (3) was well backed last start to beat the top pick in the PMac Cup, he had every chance after a gun ride but wasn’t good enough.
Race 2: Max Lees Classic 2YO Set Weights and Penalties 900m
Seven first starters over 900m at Newcastle.. No thanks! Obviously the betting will be the key here, watch where the money goes, especially for
HINCHBEAST (1), REDOUTE’S IMAGE (6), PANNA COTTA (5) and TILIA ROSE (7). Too hard.
Race 3: Highway Class 3 Handicap 1300m
Doesn’t get any easier here. Highway’s are certainly not my favourite races to bet in with so many different form lines coming together. TROPHIES GLAORE (10) was a good winner last time in an easier race but has the extreme draw to overcome. TEXAS STORM (1) gets a couple of gear changes, he will get back and probably needs to be ridden for luck from the inside gate. SMART MOOVE (12) bolted in last start at Dubbo and will run on hard, DANZIBAR DANCER (11) was well beaten in a similar race to this last time but did have a wide trip throughout.
Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1400m
SO TAKEN (2) has only been racing fairly at best this time in, she was poor in town last time after sitting up outside the speed. The key here though is the huge drop in grade back from a Listed race into A BM78. Hopefully they will be positive form the inside alley early.
MISS REDOBLE (4) was brave in defeat last start as she was forced to work too hard early to find the front. She sat parked in the breeze the start prior to win impressively, that could be her role here in the speed map today. VITESSE (8) also has an awkward draw as she will want to go forward, these two carving over from out wide should ensure that the tempo is good and gives every horse a chance. BALLISTICA (9) had excuses when beaten last time, she will be one that will be giving them a start but will be suited by the early speed others will out into the race.
Race 5: NJC Spring Stakes 3YO Set Weights 1600m
RULE THE WORLD (1) is undefeated after three starts, he resumed at Rosehill last start and was too good when sitting outside the leader early before taking over early in the straight. He loses nothing with one of the better front-running jockeys in the land Tim Clark going on, expect him to be in front soon after they jump.
INDY CAR (6) was officially beaten more than 3 lengths by the top pick last time but so doubt should have finished a lot closer. He settled a mile back and only got out late, they had placed to ride him closer that day. I expect that will happen here today. KAVALMO (7) went south for the carnival and wasn’t too bad behind star 3yo Dalasan last time, he gets the blinkers first time and his win prior in maiden grade was super after not much went right. JUST SOCIETY (5) ran on well against the pattern last time, he led all the way the start prior to get his maiden win here. He should also settle closer.
Race 6: The Hunter Quality 1300m
The feature of the day is the $1M Hunter and what a good line-up it has bought together. GRAFF (3) goes on top, he was really good in harder races early in the prep, a little disappointing last start in the Premiere Stakes behind Brutal and has been given a 6-week freshen-up. He has trialed well, will be giving them a start but has the class edge.
RENEWAL (11) ran on hard up the straight on eth first day of the carnival at Flemington, he actually won his maiden here on debut a couple of years ago at his only start here. BON AMIS (9) is resuming and has a terrific record with three wind from five fresh runs, he wasn’t far away in a trial behind Graff recently here. SAVATIANO (7) has a horror draw, she was a brilliant winner two back in Vic before weakening badly behind star Kiwi mare Melody Belle last time. I guess they will just be trying to carve over early and find the top?
Race 7: BM88 Handicap 1300m
OUTRAGEOUS (7) was a well supported fave in town last start, he had to sit outside the leader but was way too good for his opposition. That was easier than the start prior where he was forced to sit three and four wide without cover but didn’t shirk the task. Well drawn with a good claim, eh will be very hard to run down.
BOBBING (2) ran a ripper in the Koscuiszco from back in the field at huge odds, he looks to have come back well. He has a great record second-up and will run on hard, but how much start will he be giving to the top pick?
MISS FABULASS (4) will also be giving them a start she has run on hard at both runs since resuming in races that have been good form references. CATESBY (11) may be the leader form the inside draw but probably has a better chance if he takes a sit, especially if the top pick ranges up alongside him early.
Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1500m
MUSHAIREB (3) was very good when beaten into second when resuming, he was forced to change his run and made up plenty of ground late to only lose by half a length. He was a winner last prep when second-up, look for him late again here.
JUVENTUS (7) didn’t have much luck last start before hitting the line well with what were the best overall sectionals of the race, he will need a JMac special off the inside draw. STROME (2) was only narrowly beaten out of a place last time after racing tight over the latter stages, he got to with a length late after getting clear. GOT UNDERS (1) can improve with the good claim but has to overcome the horror draw, he was well beaten last time after sitting three-wide no cover. Hopefully he has a horse to follow today, albeit probably three-wide.
Race 9: 3&4YO BM72 Handicap 1200m
LEVIATHAN (9) won on debut, then was beaten a head by Funstar on a heavy track at start two. He was sent to the paddock, and has trialed well for his return. Surely he just looks too classy on what we saw at prep one, Funstar would be what price in this?
BLAZING MISS (7) has won two in a row since resuming, she will find this harder but will go forward and be on the speed for a long way, even with the claim she doesn’t look well weighted though. TESTIFIER (1) won his first three starts before going to the paddock, he resumed at Randwick three weeks ago and was desperately unlucky. HE was held-up most of the straight ad never got out, a tough watch for his backers that day. BRAZILICA (11) is a dual acceptor that is poorly drawn but must be included in everything if he runs in this.