September 23, 2020
Tips

Mornington (Sat)

Caulfield

Mornington Racing Tips – Sat Mar 21th

We will be at Mornington this Saturday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 2 – ATEN

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Race 1: Mornington Sires’ 2YO Set Weights 1500m

It looks a match race between the two at the top of the saddlecloth numbers. AMISH BOY (1) is the only winner in the race and goes on top, he was good up the straight two starts back before going across the border into SA to get the maiden win. He is likely to get back but the small field suits.

Dangers:

GLENFIDDICH (2) looks the obvious danger. He started favourite in the race that the top pick won in SA, he had his chances after a closer run in transit but was only out-bobbed and did over-race. A reversal of that result wouldn’t surprise. ALBUKHTURI (4) was ok on debut before being outclassed at Flemington last time, he looks the only one that could upset the top two. SEA WITNESS (3) next best but looks a place chance only.

Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1200m

ATEN (12) is resuming here and was a winner last prep at maiden grade when fresh before going on to win her next start. She was only beaten a little over 2 lengths by Loving Gaby two starts back, if she brings that form here, she will be hard to beat. She should be making her own luck up on the speed.

Dangers:

DES MOINES (7) has had three starts out of maiden grade, only one of them this prep. She was good up the straight in that run resuming in a tougher race than this, looks suited getting out in trip and back around the bend. PARLAY PRINCESS (3) has won three of five this time in and is racing well, she had to sit outside the leader and tired late in a much harder race last time. Forgive that run. DONE BY ME (5) is resuming and has placed at both previous fresh runs, she has trialed ok and will find this easier than the black type she was contesting before going for a break.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1200m

TOO GOOD TOO HARD (11) IS resuming, although I am not confident that she will be close enough in the run, I do think she is the best horse in the race. She won two in a row last campaign before running into the likes of Pippie up the straight at her latest. If she is within striking distance, look for her late.

Dangers:

RAKTOFF (9) is a dual acceptor. She won four of her last six before going to the paddock, has a good claim and the speed to lead these. She will be hard to run down if she lands on the bunny. Watch the betting for any confidence with her fresh. NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (2) is resuming and has a win and a placing from two previous fresh runs. He was outclassed when last seen in work at G2 level, he looked a world beater at his first campaign. DIVINE MR TYCOON (5) has been up for a while, he is racing consistently and placed two starts back when having his first look at the track. This is no harder.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 1000m

SIZZLEFLY (11) ticks a lot of boxes. She gets ion very light with the claiming jock, she has won both races she has run at the track and is undefeated first-up. She will be giving them a start but should be flashing late, the pace should be a ripper.

Dangers:

HUMAN NATURE (8) was brilliant at his first Victorian run, it was at the Valley over the flying 955m, he sat tree-wide no cover and was still too good. MUSIC ADDITION (2) is one of the more interesting runners of the day. He won 2 races in Australia back in 2017 before going to Hong Kong where he won another two races. He returns to Australia to the Gelagotis yard after a year off, watch the betting. IKNEWSHEWASMINE (4) has a stack of speed and looks the leader off the good gate, she has won three in a row and will be hard to run down again.

Race 5: BM90 Handicap 2000m

SALSAMOR (2) is going for a hattrick of wins, he was perfectly ridden behind the speed ta Flemington two back then went to Wangaratta for the Cup and was way too good after being forced to sit up on the speed. He has shown he can do work, good to see they have stuck with the 3kg claiming kid.

Dangers:

MIRIMAR (8) has been runner-up at both starts this campaign, beaten a combined margin of 0.3 lengths. He has had his chances at both runs but doesn’t map as well here. It does look a positive jockey change though with Jye McNeil taking the ride. BAG RAIDER (13) hasn’t won in a while but gets in well at the weights, should get a soft run in transit. GRAND CROWN (11) is very consistent, he gets Meech to ride today, blinkers on and tactical speed, you know she will be looking to find the top. Rarely does she ride one negative when they map to be up on the speed.

Race 6: Mornington Guineas 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1600m

CHUCK A LUCK (8) is a former Kiwi that has only had one run in Oz. He was forced to sit three-wide no cover that day at Sandown and was still bobbing at the finish to be beaten under half a length. He is drawn beautifully and will be better for that run, I expect they will back him.

Dangers:

LA FALAISE (4) wasn’t suited first-up, she made some good ground late form a mile back. She was a G2 winner before going to the paddock, she will get back again but should hit the line hard with that run under her belt. WESTPORT (12) has only been fair at three runs this campaign, she gets the nose roll back on and will be giving them a start. There looks to be good speed and improvement wouldn’t surprise. RELUCENT (16) comes into calculations if he gets a start as the second emergency.

Race 7: Mornington Cup Handicap 2400m

AKTAU (11) has a nice turn of foot when asked, a last start winner at Caulfield against a similar field he showed that acceleration after having the cold sit. He maps a little awkwardly but will only need cover in the run. He can over-race, hopefully McNeil can get him to settle early.

Dangers:

JUST BENJAMIN (14) has good tactical speed, just not sure that the lead is there today and he gets the blinkers for the first time. It may be worth waiting to see how the first couple of furlongs pan out, if he lands o the bunny and settles, he is worth a bet in run. STARS OF CARRUM (12) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but there was a lot to like about the way he hit the line last start in a race where the tempo was against. INVERLOCH (7) will have admirers but happy to take him on if he starts near the top of the betting. HE led all the way in the Prelude of this race at Caulfield but was advantaged the way the track was playing, I don’t think he gets that easy lead here.

Race 8: Hareeba Stakes Handicap 1200m

DIAMOND EFFORT (15) has come back a much-improved horse this prep. She resumed at Caulfield in early February, over-raced just behind the speed before charging over the top to win by 4 lengths. She then stepped up I class at Flemington and after sitting behind the speed in a straight race, exploded to the front to score impressively at a short quote. I have no doubt she is up to beating this lot.

Dangers:

PROPHET’S THUMB (12) doesn’t have a great overall record but races well fresh, she placed at Listed level before going to the paddock and was dominant in a recent trial win. Comes to the races for the first time with the Anthony Freedman yard, I expect there will be money for her with the big stable change. RUNSON (9) has good sped and will be looking for the top from the good draw, but so will plenty of others. He was good winning a Listed race across the border last start, he looks good value at the double figure quote. HAUNTED (7) has the horrible draw but a good record second-up, I just get the inkling that they may have a crack early from the wide gate and try to lead.

Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1600m

SELICA (10) is a lightly race filly taking on the older horse that looks to have plenty of upside. She won a hot form race when resuming at Sandown two starts back. She then was outclassed in the Keweny at Flemington last time but was ok back in the pack. This is a lot easier and I expect her to go through the grades nicely.

Dangers:

WHAM (3) was brilliant winning two in a row earlier in the prep including a 4-length romp at Sandown two starts back. Love the jockey change with Melham going on. DECLARES WAR (2) was right out to the Derby trip last pep so may need further, he was encouraging when resuming behind the talented Jumbo Ozaki. Look for him late. KISS AND CRY (8) won nicely resuming then gave them too big a start last time but was strong through the line in a race where she wasn’t suited.

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