Moonee Valley Racing Tips – Sat Sept 31
We will be at Moonee Valley this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 5 – EXHILIRATES
Race 1: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1500m
THE HOLY ONE (2) was very green on debut and beaten out of sight, what he has done since in two runs has been a huge turnaround. Two back at Echuca he led all the way to win by almost four with a gap to third, the second horse that day came out and bolted in a fortnight ago. Last start he sat three-wide on the speed at Sandown and was way too good, Meech up on the speed, he looks a good thing.
CONQUEROR (4) won his maiden on the synthetic then was good on the heavy track at Flemington last time, he will be giving them a start and looks a huge risk with that pattern here at the track for the first time. ALL TOO TERRIFIC (8) will also be giving them a start, a similar pattern of a synthetic maiden win and then ran on hard behind the top pick last time, but she did have her chance. OLYMPIC OATH (5) next best, a back marker that won on the synthetic at maiden level, he will nee to improve up in this grade.
Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1600m
Capacity field but it is hard to go past the top weight JUNIPAL (1) following his brilliant win here last start. He tracked into the race beautifully before letting down out wide, the huge field should see the tempo hot again and him joining in at the back-end.
FIVE KINGDOM (3) has the wide draw and will get back, he gets the blinkers on today and is a winner at the only start he had here at the Valley. LAURE ME IN (6) was brave in defeat behind the top pick last time after sitting wide throughout, just not sure where he gets to in the run from the middle draw with so many horses engaged. If SILENT COMMAND (18) gets a start as the third emergency he must be respected, he had to sit wide in an easier race across the border last time and did it without cover.
Race 3: Handicap 2040m
AL GALAYEL (5) was too bad to be true last time in a race that a few of these contested. His form reads poor on paper but he has been making good ground late in recent runs where the tempo has been against. The key here is that I think the speed will be on, Lloyd Williams will no doubt sacrifice his lesser chance runner as a pacemaker with not a lot of speed on paper. I can see Al Galayel sitting back near last and getting a cart into it and running over the top.
KING OF LEOGRANCE (8) ran on well at his Australian debut over a mile and obviously wants further, he is a Listed winner in Europe over 2500m and will be hitting the line hard. KENTUCY BREEZE (6) beat them here last time and was impressive, goes from Prebble to Kah and up in the weights. Everything fell into place and he was double figure odds, they want us to take 3/1 here? INVERLOCH (7) has been up for an eternity, he looked tired last start after making a long wide run, put him in the minors only.
Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1200m
HAUT BRION HER (2) was scratched from Sydney last week, she is an excitement machine. She has gone through the grades nicely from maiden to winning an 88 last time, with her racing style o the speed and from the good gate, she looks suited to the Valley.
MYSTERY LOVE (6) is undefeated after three starts, she resumes here but showed plenty at her first prep. She has versatility and showed that she can lead or come from back in the field, Olly going on is always a plus. VICTORY KINGDOM (9) looked to run out of condition when resuming last time and will be better for the run.
FABRIC (13) ran on hard here at her latest and is very consistent. Look for her late but she will be giving the top pick a fair start.
Race 5: Atlantic Jewel Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
EXHILIRATES (1) won the Magic Millions going back to January, close up in the Reisling before not getting into the race or not handling the track in the Slipper, either way she was well beaten. She resumed at Caulfield three weeks ago and charged home to score comfortably. She cops the extra weight but this certainly looks easier, how do they beat her?
PIN SEC (2) is her stablemate, she resumed in that same race and ran on hard into third, hard to see the weight changes resulting in a reversal of placings. She also has the tricky inside gate and will need to be ridden for luck. WESTPORT (4) has been toweling them up in Adelaide but will find this harder, she rallied in the straight last time after being on the speed to win by just over a length with more than 4 back to third. TARAYEF (5) resumed her eat the track but didn’t fire, she pulled up lame so am willing to forgive that run. She will get back in the run.
Race 6: Chandler Macleod Stakes Quality 1200m
Look to see how the track is playing, if it is favouring those on the speed as it was last meeting here at the Valley, no reason TAVISAN (11) can’t do what he did a fortnight ago. He was truck-loaded as if there was no settling, ambled to the front, kicked clear on the turn and never looked like getting run down. This is harder but he carries less weight and gets D Dunn on.
THE INEVITABLE (10) was terrific winning fresh up the straight, he ran down Assertive Approach who has since come out and won. With his style of racing though he doesn’t look as well suited here, just needs that right horse to follow and he will charge over the top and the extra distance suits. BANDIPUR (7) is on the quick back-up from a much harder race at Caulfield last week, he was ok in the run home. DEPRIVE (6) is a real winner and was super resuming, he has been here before when narrowly beaten but I see the same thing happening as that day. He will get lost early with all the speed and will need an Olly peach to get him home. Talented horse, but is this the track for him?
Race 7: Mittys McEwen Stakes WFA 1000m
MISS LEONIDAS (8) should be up outside the leader here, she has good speed and although it is only 1000m race, I don’t see it being helter skelter early. She has only raced once here at the Valley, admittedly it was only against the girls at her age group, but she led and bolted in by 6. Looks a great race, hopefully she gets to that spot early and can kick at the top of the straight.
FAATINAH (1) is a Listed winner here at the track and has good speed, he was thrown in the deep end and had a crack in Dubai earlier in the year. Watch the betting. EDUARDO (4) goes well fresh but is having his first go at the track, the inside is a little concern also as the leader may be giving up before the turn. BONS AWAY (3) was super resuming but just wasn’t suited the way the leader got the soft lead here last time. His style is to get back and run on, but I just don’t see the breakneck speed needed for him to get over the top.
Race 8: John F Feehan Stakes WFA 1600m
BEST OF DAYS (5) was only fair resuming behind Samadoubt in Sydney last time, but there was money for him at double figures in. He is much better suite dup to the mile, he is a Group One winner at this distance in Melbourne and has a much better record second-up.
HOMESMAN (3) is resuming, he also goes well fresh and his having his first run since being beaten a lip in the Caulfield Cup. He resumed last prep here in this race, ran on hard to also miss by the barest possible margin. He loves a tight finish, in his last 4 starts, three of them have been a margin of 0.1 lengths officially. FIFTY STARS (6) was beaten a long way resuming but his run was better than what it suggests on paper, he did start favourite in a Doncaster last prep! SILKANDARABAD (9) was good behind Mystic Journey resuming and has not missed a place in 4 previous second-up runs. Look for him late.
Race 9: Handicap 1600m
VINLAND (2) wasn’t officially first-up at Flemington last time, but he had been off the scene for 7 weeks and ran on hard over the top to win. He loses nothing getting out to the mile, the speed looks genuine and he should only need cover when improving to once again finish too strong.
No confidence at all. NEW UNIVERSE (3) is a little one-paced at the moment but races well here, DR DRILL (4) comes back in trip which looks ideal, he will be up on the speed for a long way. CURRAGH (7) has been racing well and the stable is on fire, an open race, play very wide in the Quaddie.