Moonee Valley Racing Tips – Sat Aug 3
We will be at Moonee Valley this Saturday.
Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 7 – TAVISAN
Race 1: 3YO Colts and Geldings Handicap 1000m
ASATEER (1) was ok on debut when runner-up back in the summer, he was sent straight to the paddock and resumed at Pakenham in early June. He won two in a row there on the synthetic track, both of them when sitting up on the speed. He has the fitness edge over his main rival and if he brings that synthetic track form to the grass here, they won’t be running him down.
ALBURQ (2) looks the obvious danger, he ad been racing some of the best of his age group before going to the paddock. He has had the big chop and been gelded since and he won’t be a maiden long. MEMPHIS ROCK (3) was an impressive winner on the synthetic last time also, but it did take him 9 attempts to break the maiden and hard to see him stepping straight into this and going back-to-back. SKIDDAW (4) next best, he has had 6 weeks between runs but would need to improve on his last start Flemington effort where he had every chance.
Race 2: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1000m
Tough race for the 3YO girls and I wouldn’t be putting a line through any of them. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (1) is resuming and did win fresh last start, she then went to Adelaide and won at Listed level before ending her prep with a n attempt to lead all the way at SA’s premier track at Group Three Level> If she is anywhere near her best she will be hard to beat.
MYSTICAL PURSUIT (2) is the ex-factor, she is undefeated in four starts in Tazzie and has trialed well. I will be interested to see how she is in the betting late and if the big boys want to back her. If so, she will rocket to the top of the selections. JEDASTAR (3) was a brilliant winner up the straight on debut and then wasn’t far way behind the talented Catch Me in a BD prelude, she took on the older horses in the Lightning following that and was outclassed. They obviously have an opinion of her. TARAYEF (6) is resuming off a brilliant maiden win at Sandown 3 months ago, what a super race!
Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1600m
PAINT THE TOWN TWO (6) has been up for an eternity officially but she is racing so well. She is a last start winner at 78 grade against the girls, was brilliant ridden by Willow and although the junior jock gets on with e claim, there is no apprentice I would rather than Teo Nugent legging up.
Plenty of them. LUCKY WICK (5) has also been up for a long time but rarely runs a bad race, she has good tactical speed and will carve over and make her own luck on the speed. KISS AND CRY (11) is only a lightly raced 4YO, she is still officially at her first prep and will be giving them a start. She was held-up badly at Bendigo last start before balancing up and savaging the line late to just miss. RIVERINA LASS (13) has been racing well enough on the heavy tracks and any rain around wouldn’t hurt her chances.
Race 4: Handicap 1600m
PACODALI (1) has been up for a while and has been a little costly for punters this prep with only the one win, but I really lover his pattern of racing. He will go forward from the gate and try to get outside the leader or cover behind the first pair, Teo Nugent is back on and gets the good claim, if they can control the tempo, he is a winner here previously and it could e his day again. Stick with him on an each-way basis.
TRAVIMYFRIEND (6) must be nearing the end of his prep, he has been up for an eternity and am very happy to risk him here anything under each-way odds. He will be giving them a start and needs everything to go right. KENTUCKY BREEZE (7) is a last start winner, he had to make a long-sustained run at Flemington over the mile, hard to sit wide there around the long sweeping bend and keep coming late. ELITE DRAKE (9) has good tactical speed and looks the leader, he has only missed a place once this prep from 7 trips to the races. He will need it easy in front though.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1500m
Very tough race and thankfully not a leg of the Quaddie! Sticking with the theme of the day and backing Teo Nugent riding TRIGGER POINT (10). I like the fact that he has tactical speed in what looks an open race, he will be making his own luck and his last start win at Sandown in a 78 was super. He handles all track conditions and if he gets a perfect sit again from the good draw he will be hard to hold out.
SNIPES (12) comes through the Winter Champs final where he was outclassed, he will appreciate getting back to this grade after a month off and is a winner at the track previously. LEGALE (8) is drawn horribly in 16 and is certain to be giving them a start but does have a good turn-of-foot. ALSVIN (7) is probably nearing the end of a long prep but has tactical speed and will also be making his own luck. Tough race.
Race 6: BM78 Handicap 2500m
MORE THAN EVER (6) comes back to Melbourne after impressive back-to-back wins in Adelaide, both times he has been mid-field in the run before working home nicely. Two back he was held-up at a vital stage but still managed to run on well enough in what has been a good form reference. IN a race of limited chances, Jamie Kah goes on and he loses nothing there.
MIRIMAR (4) has only missed a place at one of his 7 starts this campaign, he also has tactical speed but may have to sit wide throughout from the gate. Any rain around wouldn’t hurt his chances. THE STATESMAN (1) looks the other major hope and happy to take only the three of them in the first leg of the Quaddie. He was big odds in a harder race last time but stuck on well after looking the winner half way up the straight at Flemington. SOCIAL ELEMENT (2) can be thrown into exotics, he had a chequered passage when placing in the Queensland Cup at Listed level last start. Watch the betting with him to give an indication if he is a live chance or not.
Race 7: Handicap 2040m
TWILIGHT RUN (10) has been good at two starts back this prep, the first of which was at Caulfield where he was held-up at a vital stage before running on hard but never looked likely. He then went to Flemington over the mile and was once again strong through the line when winning, suggesting the step up to today’s classic Cox Plate trip looks ideal. He should settle back and if saved for one run, will be too strong.
If there is any rain around then INVERLOCH (8) must come into calculations. He is enigmatic but when having his first run on a heavy track last time, he led all the way and bolted in by more than 4 lengths at Sandown Hard to catch if there is a downgrade in the track. BEDFORD (7) has won two on the bounce since a plain effort at Flemington three starts back, he will be giving them a start but shouldn’t use in any petrol in the run off the good gate. LAST WEEK (6) has the potential but we need to see him start producing some wins, he has now had 7 runs since leaving the Weir camp and still yet to notch up that first win for the new yard.
Race 8: BM84 Handicap 1200m
TAVISAN (9) looks to have come back well but this is easily his toughest test.. He resumed at Sandown three weeks ago and travelled beautifully in front to lead all the way in a dominant win. He placed second-up last campaign, the key for him is if he can find the front early. He will be hard to run down around here at a track where he was close-up at Listed level at his only start on the track.
ROX THE CASTLE (7) won two in a row before going for a break, he also has tactical speed and will go forward but not sure he can sit outside the leader and win. O’LONH STAR (6) is an interesting runner resuming, he is a speedy Tasmanian that has a great overall record, just not sure if he can match it in this grade but they wouldn’t be bringing him here for nothing. USAIN BOWLER (11) resumed in a harder race at Flemington last time, he was battling it out against the best sprinters in the land last prep and is a winner second-up. Just not sure where he gets to from the middle draw.
Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1000m
NON PAEAR (6) has good tactical speed and with Nugent on and the inside gate, she should be able to spear through and lead. She led all the way on the synthetic last time and bolted in for a soft win, if she lands on the bunny early double down in the run.
CONDOR HEROES (7) is resuming, he has always shown potential but is still yet to win out of maiden grade. He is first up today and absolutely brained them in a recent barrier trial, he was gelded in his time off and he looks to have come back well. I expect that he will be very well supported. QUEEN ANNABEL (9) is only going fairly but will appreciate the drop in grade
and SAM’S IMAGE (10) was ok fresh behind the last races top pick Tavisan, look to see how that form line has held up.