February 28, 2020
Tips

Moonee Valley (Fri)

Moonee Valley

Moonee Valley Racing Tips – Fri Feb 14th

We will be at Moonee Valley this Friday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 3 – LEALE

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Race 1: 2YO Fillies NMW Plate Set Weights 1000m

Tough race to start and no confidence at all with more than half of the baby girls coming to the races for the first time. Watch the betting for those on debut as they look the main chances, in particular MASSEUSE (3), SUNSHINES (8) and TATEYAMA (9). DIFFICULT (1) looks the best of the raced brigade, he showed sped but tired on debut up the straight at Flemington, was sent to the paddock and looks to have come back well with a trial win. Too hard.

Race 2: Maiden Plate Set Weights 1600m

HOLSTER (9) was only fair on debut at Sandown and was sent to the paddock looking like he had a lot to learn. He resumed at the Lakeside track two weeks ago, settled mid-field and made good ground late into second without really ever looking the winner. Goes from 1300m to the mile second-up, maps mid-field and should relish the extra trip.

Dangers:

CATEGORY FIVE (7) was very well backed at the Bool last start, he did appear to have every chance though after getting the gun run behind the speed. Doesn’t map as well here, happy to take him on if he is at the top of the market. STANNARY (4) had no luck on the heavy track on debut, gets back on top of the ground and is drawn well. There was money for him on debut also. ESCONDIDO (8) is unplaced at four career starts, he resumed off a long break last time and ran through the line well in what has become a very good form reference.

Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1600m

LEALE (7) has come back well this campaign after an average start to her career, she has won two in a row at Yarra Valley on the heavy at maiden grade and then at Werribee when leading all the way last time, again on rain affected going. Hard to run down if she gets a soft lead.

Dangers:

HI STRANGER (2) gets the blinkers for the first time, he won his maiden at the start of this prep and has been ok without winning since. He should settle closer with the gear change and has a good turn-of-foot when asked. FIELD OF LIGHTS (4) was easy in the betting when saluting at maiden grade on a heavy track last time. Has he turned the corner or was it just a case of him loving the conditions? CASSIUS (1) won a harder race here at the Valley two starts back, gets a good claim down in this grade but still has to carry 61kg.

Race 4: BM64 Handicap 2040m

DUNS ‘N’ ROSES (11) looks beautifully drawn on the inside, the speed should be hectic early. She was good here last time when narrowly missing the placings after having a similar run as I expect today, drops back in class and if the speed is on as expected and the gaps open up, she will be too strong late.

Dangers:

JUST A JOKE (1) has won back-to-back races since resuming, he sat outside the leader at Wangaratta and bolted in fresh and then again did it the hard way at 64 grade last time, got the front early in the straight and stuck on well. PRES DE TOI (9) doesn’t seem to have a lot of brilliance but will keep coming, she was held-up out wide last start before hitting the line well late. LUCENTE (4) is also going for a hattrick of wins and will be up on the speed, may have to sit parked in the breeze though, which will make it a lot tougher.

Race 5: BM84 Handicap 955m

SEI STELLA (10) is a dual acceptor, there was a lot to like about her win when resuming. She had to sit parked three-wide without cover here three weeks ago, got outside the leader before being strongest to the line. Drawn out but that’s usually the least of their problems in these jump and run affairs.

Dangers:

MISS NORWAY (5) was poor when last in work at the few runs before going to the paddock, she is fresh here and grows a leg when first-up. This is easier, it may be the confidence booster she need after a long run of outs. EPIC GREY (2) gets the bar plates on (never a good addition in my mind) after a terrific win at Werribee when down in grade last time. He was mid-field and held-up early in the straight before getting clear at the furlong and driving hard to get up by the barest possible margin. MISTER MOGUL (11) has had his runs spaced but is going for three wins in a row, he led all the way here at the Valley last time to bolt in by a big space, he was favoured the way the track was playing though.

Race 6: Torney Night Cup Handicap 2500m

VAUCLUSE BAY (3) goes on top in what is the feature race of the night. He has been very impressive winning back-to-back races, he has shown he can lead or take a sit or lead all the way which is an added bonus around here.

Dangers:

DABIYR (6) comes down to get away from the wet tracks in Sydney, he is fourth up today and placed over 2400m last prep and should love the trip. He will be giving the top pick a start but if he gets attacked on the speed, look for this guy to be sweeping home down the side. PINA (8) is very consistent overall and has not missed a placing at three runs here at the Valley, this is her first time out to the trip. Look for her late if she runs the journey as she will get back. YOGI (1) next bets, the Sandown Cup winner of 2018 and you know what you will get with him. He will drop out the back and keep grinding home… probably wants further!

Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1200m

HIDDEN LEGEND (8) was a good winner on debut at Mornington at huge odds, he then went to Cranbourne and was well in the market at his first go out of that grade. He arguably should have won again, was held-up from the turn until well inside the furlong pole, ducked back to the inside and attacked the line only to be beaten just under a length. Watch the betting for him resuming today.

Dangers:

ZOUMANOR (4) won resuming and has placed at all four runs since, Willow takes the ride and he will push forward and look for the lead. Hard to run down if he gets to the rails first. PEIDRA (6) will have to overcome the extreme draw but will be getting back anyway, he may need further but was super at his first two starts before tackling the best of his age group. FOXY LADY (11) is another resuming, she won two in a row before having excuses at Listed level prior to going to the paddock. Market watch on her as well.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1600m

POLANCO (11) has been up for a long time but is racing very consistent. He goes on top of the horses that should be starting here (see dangers and dual-acceptors). Last time at Caulfield he flew home from a mile back and was only beaten a half-length after giving them many at the top of the straight. Will get back and with the right horses back on the side, will slingshot off the turn and finish best.

Dangers:

MELLORS (9) is racing well winning two of the last three including a Pakenham win last start when up no the speed. He looked to be under pressure and was pushed very wide on the turn but responded and although the margin wasn’t huge, it was soft on the line. EUREKA STREET (2) is a dual acceptor that looks a real threat if he starts here despite the wide gate. PARLAY PRINCESS (12) is in the same boat, a dual acceptor drawn wide. Hard to judge/guess/comment without knowing if these two will be racing here or not as they will be major players in the betting.

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