October 25, 2020
Featured Tips

Moonee Valley (Sat)

Caulfield
Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday October 24, 2020
Saturday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 8 – RUSSIAN CAMELOT

Race 1: ANCESTRY (2) from 1, 7 and 9.
Race 2: PREDETERMINED (5) from 9, 14 and 12.
Race 3: BELLA NIPOTINA (7) from 5, 2 and 1.
Race 4: THERMOSPHERE (1) from 2, 3 and 4.
Race 5: PARADEE (10) from 8, 5 and 6.
Race 6: YOUNG WERTHER (6) from 3, 1 and 2.
Race 7: RIDDLE ME THAT (9) from 4, 2 and 1.
Race 8: POLLY GREY (12) from 9, 11 and 6.
Race 9: RUSSIAN CAMELOT (11) from 6, 9 and 12.
Race 10: LA MEXICANA (8) from 9, 3 and 1.


Race 1: Handicap 955m

ANCESTRY (2) looks the best of good things to start the big day and get back anything that you may have lost last night! He won at Caulfield over 1200m leading all the way by a big margin when resuming, he then went to Cranbourne and brained them by as far as you can kick ya hat, again leading all the way. The 955m may be a query, but he can sit wide and win.

Dangers:

None. Unless the rain really comes then I could entertain the thought of JUNGLE EDGE (1) causing an upset. He is a grand old campaigner, but we all know what he needs, a bog track. FREE OF DEBT (7) and CONDO’S EXPRESS (9) are both dual acceptors and can run into a place if they run here.

Race 2: Inglis Banner 2YO Set Weights 1000m

Hard to know with only three of them faced the starter previously. The betting will tell you more than I can, watch for any significant moves, especially early. Include PREDETERMINED (5) for the Corstens team, THE ART OF FLYING (9) for Maher and Eustace, SNEAKY FIVE (14) also form that yard and GOSSITINO (12) for Robbie Griffiths. Too hard, sit back and count your winnings from the first.

Race 3: Red Anchor Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

BELLA NIPOTINA (7) won at Caulfield resuming, she then had a good 5-week break and was never a factor here after sitting closer to the outside rail than the inside. Last time at Caulfield she led for a long way, this looks easier. Hard to beat if she lands on the bunny.

Dangers:

PORTLAND SKY (5) will start at the top of the market, he can certainly win but still only has a maiden win on the synthetic to his name. He was ok at Listed level last time in a harder field, will need a big drift in betting to get mine on. FREE TO MOVE (2) is a last start winner here at the track, he was beautifully ridden behind the speed before easing around heels and was strong to the finish. VALAQUENTA (1) ran on only fairly up the straight last time, he is 1/1 here at the track and looks better suited around a bend.

Race 4: Fillies Classic 3YO Set Weights 1600m

THERMOSPHERE (1) is having her first go at the Valley, she won the Edward Manifold at Flemington two starts back after sitting deep throughout. Last time in the Thousand Guineas, she sat mid-field and was only fair to the line, like her better here where she can slingshot off the bend.

Dangers:

ECUMENICAL (2) is an interesting runner over from SA, she was enormous in defeat in the Thousand Guineas Prelude then again stuck on when not entitled to in the big one last time, caught wide for an eternity. She maps poorly again though from 10? MISS INBETWEEN (3) has good speed and could be the leader, INCREDULOUS DREAM (4) ran on hard to win last start, not sure she handled the track though last time she was here.

Race 5: Tesio Stakes Mares 1600m

PARADEE (10) goes on top but with no confidence. She sat up on the speed but faded late last time to miss the placings but was only beaten under a length. She was a winner here at her only start at the track back in the Autumn, love the Olly/O’Brien combo.

Dangers:

FASCINO (8) has not won since this meeting last year, she was going only fairly when tightened up late last time, she can improve back in this grade at a track she was a winner at the only time around here. BONVICINI (5) will be giving them a start but has good closing speed with the right set-up, FIDELIA (6) is going horribly and will be huge odds, hate to see her lob into fourth and not have her in the numbers.

Race 6: Moonee Valley Vase 3YO Set Weights 2040m

YOUNG WERTHER (6) was brilliant winning at double figure odds on debut, he jumped straight out to the 1800m at Listed level in the Super Impose last time. He was mid-field in the run before being held-up, he balanced up just before the clocktower and stormed home to just miss. The race has proven a good form guide, is he a star in the making?

Dangers:

CHERRY TORTONI (3) was good here at his only try around the track, he went to Sydney last time and was never a factor. This looks no easier, look for him late. KHOEKHOE (1) ran on hard to beat the top pick last time, anyone that saw the race will tell you the result should have been reversed. LUNAR FOX (2) jumps up in trip from the mile of the Caulfield Guineas last start, he chased well enough behind a couple of smart ones that were too sharp at the trip.

Race 7: Crystal Mile WFA 1600m

RIDDLE ME THAT (9) never runs a bad race and has the fitness edge over many of his rivals. He ran on well to win at Flemington over 7 furlongs, he may have the speed to pinch a break while many of these plodders are chasing? Each-way.

Dangers:

Hate the race. Too many of them not here as their grand final, resuming or out of form. OLMEDO (4) is an interesting runner for Waller, the former import only had one start in Sydney in the Autumn, failed badly on the heavy track. Trials have been fair, if the money comes, he may be the oneKINGS WILL DREAM (2) was very one-paced in the Turnbull, he stuck on ok but back to the mile? Will need to be a stack of pace on early I would think for him to feature. HOMESMAN (1) hasn’t been seen since the Doncaster back in the Autumn, he does go well enough fresh and has won at the track previously.

Race 8: Moonee Valley Gold Cup Set Weights and Penalties 2500m

POLLY GREY (12) was beaten almost 3 lengths in the Cranbourne Cup last start but I loved the way she attacked the line. She was a mile back and ran on hard, she was also good at Caulfield the start prior and getting out in trip looks to suit.

Dangers:

CARIF (9) is three weeks between runs, he is new to the Snowden yard and had no luck at his latest in the Metropolitan for Waller. He was officially beaten 6 lengths but the margin was unfair after never really getting clear late. MIAMI BOUND (11) has not won a race since this time last year, she was ok in the Herbert Power along the inside in the run home and this is certainly easier. LEVENDI (6) is listed as being gelded isnce last start? Only 2 weeks between runs, he comes back from WFA G1 racing into a more suitable assignment.

Race 9: Cox Plate WFA 2040m

The outside barrier just means we are going to be getting a better price about the best of the day, RUSSIAN CAMELOT (11). The Danny O’Brien trained son of Camelot was put in the map with his SA Derby win last prep, he has since run a belter fresh, brained them in the Underwood at WFA then made a long run to go down bravely in the Caulfield Stakes. I expect him to bounce back here.

Dangers:

ASPETER (6) is having his first Australian start, a last start winner of the York Stakes at G2 level in the UK, he carried 60kg that day under set weights and comes back to WFA conditions here.  ARCADIA QUEEN (9) beat the top pick on its merits last start, first go around the Valley a little query? She will be giving them a start but with the right cart into it, should be flashing late. ARMORY (12) is another foreign raider having its first start on our soil, he was a G3 winner in Ireland two back and not beaten far at G1 level last time. Master trainer that must be respected.

Race 10: WIlliam Crockett Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

LA MEXICANA (8) has won two of three in her career, last time at Cranbourne she sat up outside the speed and brained them by more than 4 lengths. That style of racing looks suited to the Valley, drawn out with the in-form Jamie Kah riding, hopefully she is positive and forces the tempo sitting parked.

Dangers:

WEGOBAM (9) is going to be big odds, she was a maiden winner last start at Sale. She found them a little sharp early over the 1000m but hit the line well, looks suited stepping up to the 6 furlongs. MAHA (3) led for a long, long way last time at HQ, she looks better suited around here where she was a winner at her only start. MINHAAJ (1) has the blinkers on for the first time, she has hit the line well at her last couple but has had her chances.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday October 21, 2020
Wednesday @ Geelong:

Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 4 – OCULAR

Race 1: EXCELMAN (2) from 9, 7 and 4.
Race 2: FRANKIE PINOT (10) from 3, 8 and 11.
Race 3: FUNDRAISER (5) from 1, 10 and 9.
Race 4: OCULAR (10) from 12, 6 and 8.
Race 5: SIMPLY INVINCIBLE (1) from 6, 10 and 11.
Race 6: ALCYONE (1) from 3, 5 and 6.
Race 7: SKYWARD (5) from 6, 2 and 1.
Race 8: XILONG (1) from 6, 11 and 4.
Race 9: JUST JAKE (5) from 11, 2 and 14.


Race 1: BM70 Handicap 2400m

EXCELMAN (2) will start one of the shortest priced favourites of the day. He was brilliant winning a BM64 at Cranbourne last start, they changed it up with him and decided to ride him on the speed. He led, kicked on the turn and never looked like getting run down. Maybe a bet in play is the way to go if he leads again?

Dangers:

REFLECT THE STARS (9) will be better for the first-up run at Bendigo, there was a lot to like about the way he ran through the line over the mile. She doesn’t win out of turn but looks to have come back well. VIVIREDSKY (7) was big odds at Murtoa in the Cup but hit the line well, ETNA (4) is flying winning his last two, not many 10yo’s going for a hattrick of wins!

Race 2: BM70 Handicap 1700m

FRANKIE PINOT (10) won his maiden on the good track two starts ago, he then was very easy in the betting at his first go out of that grade on the heavy track. He got back and defied the alarming betting drift, storming over the top to win easily, even though the margin wasn’t huge. He can take the next step again.

Dangers:

SCOTTISH DANCER (3) won a similar race to this last time out, he has the wide draw here and will need cover. He was strong through the line in that win after being forced to make a long run, if he gets the back of the right horse, he will be hard to hold out. INFLUENTIAL JACK (8) was beautifully ridden to win an easier race last start, he maps well again. SERENGETI (11) led all the way here at the track last start, look for him to adopt those tactics again.

Race 3: BM64 Handicap 1100m

FUNDRAISER (5) is resuming, he won his maiden when fresh last campaign after being well backed. He went on to race behind some handy ones, they didn’t really work out how they wanted t ride him though? I expect them to go forward early, watch the betting.

Dangers:

THE ASTROLOGIST (1) resumes for a new yard, he is now with the Corstens team. He showed plenty of ability when last in work, the betting will tell us more. WITCHFULTHINKING (10) is also first-up, she is yet to win out of maiden grade but has placed at her only run at the track. LITTLE TOWN BLUES (9) over-raced badly and dropped out resuming at what was his first go out of maiden grade, Olly goes on… the ability looks to be there from what we saw at his debut.

Race 4: Dual Choice Plate BM84 Handicap 1200m

OCULAR (10) is flying, he won easily resuming before being well backed at Flemington, he ran up to win but just looked to run out of condition second-up. Last start at Bendigo, he got a mile back before storming home to get up in the last few strides. He will get back again, look for him late.

Dangers:

WICKLOW TOWN (12) resumes, he was flying last prep not finishing further back than second at five starts. Expect Olly to be riding for luck between them late form the back. MUSIC ADDITION (6) went to Sydney a fortnight ago and stuck on well up on the speed, he will be looking for the top again.  OVERKILL (8) has only tasted defeat once, that was on debut. He is fresh here going for four wins on the bounce, he has a stack of speed and will be hard to run down if he doesn’t have to sit parked in the breeze.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1500m

SIMPLY INVINCIBLE (1) was very heavily backed at Caulfield last start in a harder race, he had a good run in transit until held-up early in the straight. He was good through the line and no doubt should have finished closer than the 1.6L beaten margin.

Dangers:

APPROACH DISCREET (6) is not officially resuming but has had 8 weeks between runs, he has won two in a row at Sandown running on form the back. GHODELEINE (10) was off the track throughout without cover and it showed late, Kah sticks with the ride and she is riding super. KATSUMA (11) should have won an easier race at Cranbourne last start, she was held-up at a vital stage before charging late.

Race 6: 3YO Geelong Classic Set Weights and Penalties 2200m

ALCYONE (1) drops back from Listed grade into this, he has been well beaten at two starts this time in but this does look easier. He gets the tongue tie on after pulling up lame this time. I expect him to settle closer here getting out in trip.

Dangers:

AZALY (3) has to come out of a Donald maiden, I loved the way he ran through the line there and looks suited also getting out in trip. He looks to be building up to something like this, a win wouldn’t surprise. ULTIMATE EDITION (5) bolted in by more than 5 lengths in a Bendigo maiden after leading throughout, harder here and he will need to land on the bunny. TOKEN SPIRIT (6) gets the blinkers for the first time, it looks a godo gear change after laying in up the straight in the Derby trial last time.

Race 7: Geelong Cup Handicap 2400m

SKYWARD (5) is a new addition to the Busuttin/Young stable, a G3 winner back in France two starts back with the old yard then wasn’t far away at a G2 last time. The mile and a half looks ideal, is this his Gf though? Always a tough race with the internationals, usually looking forward to the first Tuesday in November.

Dangers:

SHARED AMBITION (6) was super from the back in Sydney two starts back, he then went to the Bart Cummings and was never out of trouble, only beaten just under 2 lengths. ASHRUN (2) is a German trained horse having start one on our soil, Australian Bloodstock rarely bring slow ones here. He was runner-up in Germany at G2 level last time, sure to be right in the mix. SAN HUBERTO (1) is having his first Australian start, he is a G2 winner in France with 8 weeks between runs. The betting will be key here.

Race 8: Black Pearl Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

XILONG (1) has a good overall record, she resumed over 6 furlongs at Caulfield and led for a long way before fading late. This looks easier than that G3 at Caulfield, she is a winner second-up previously and will lead for a long way. She led a strong Goodwood field last prep, hard to catch if she crosses.

Dangers:

ALGADON MISS (6) looked to have every chance last time, she will go forward but doesn’t map as well from the wide gate. If she can get cover, look for her to explode late after stalking the leaders. SCORE (11) resumes and may need further but was a winner fresh last campaign. WILD VIXEN (4) gets the blinkers for the first time, she has not won fresh previously but has placed at all three previous first-up runs.

Race 9: BM64 Handicap 1400m

JUST JAKE (5) won two in a row before going for a small break, he came back after 6-weeks off at Bendigo and led for a long way before getting run down over the last 50m. He is very consistent and will again be going forward.

Dangers:

NOVEMBER DREAMING (11) will probably need further, she was right out to the 2000m last prep but does usually go well early in her preps. Willow goes back on. PLAYOFFS (2) is also resuming with the blinkers off, he maps beautifully and should have the cold sit on the leaders. BOOM BOOM BECKER (14) was a last start maiden winner on a heavy track, this is harder but the dominance he won by can’t be ignored.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday October 17, 2020
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 8 – WINDSTORM

Race 1: SKIDDAW (2) from 1, 3 and 4.
Race 2: RAINBIEL (2) from 8, 1 and 5.
Race 3: ENDANGER (6) from 2, 9 and 1.
Race 4: LET’S KARAKA DEAL (10) from 8, 5 and 2.
Race 5: SALTO ANGEL (10) from 3, 2 and 4.
Race 6: FITEUSE (3) from 2, 4 and 1.
Race 7: ALFA ORO (6) from 7, 8 and 2.
Race 8: WINDSTORM (9) from 4, 3 and 7.
Race 9: VERRY ELLEEGANT (7) from 1, 11 and 13.
Race 10: SHE SHAO FLY (6) from 9, 2 and 4.


Race 1: Grand Handicap BM80 1700m

SKIDDAW (2) had no luck resuming in a BM78 at Geelong, he then went to Flemington and was forced to make a run earlier than they would have liked. He loomed up to win but tired late, he doesn’t have a long dash so needs to be saved for one run.

Dangers:

SEBERATE (1) placed at his first two runs this campaign, he wasn’t beaten far last start at the Valley after over-racing and needs to settle better. POWER SCHEME (3) was a real eye-catcher when charging home fresh, this looks easier. SUKOOT (4) looks the other winning chance, he was held-up at Flemington before getting going late into third. He is very consistent and will be there late when the whips are cracking.

Race 2: 3YO Fillies Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

RAINBIEL (2) won a Benalla maiden by leading all the way two starts back, she then went to Kyneton at her first crack out of that grade and was beautifully ridden. She sat behind the speed, loomed up approaching the turn and took over at the furlong, running away for an easy win.

Dangers:

SCREAM DREAM (8) looks suited getting out to the 7 furlongs, she won her maiden on debut before running on hard last time over 1200m into second. Look for her late. YES BABY YES (1) is still in her first prep, lining up for start number 8 today. She peaked on her run after hitting the lead last start in the harder Edward manifold, expect her to go forward early. MISS CONDUCT (5) was strong through the line to win a Sale maiden last start, this is harder, but she has good closing speed and plenty of upside.

Race 3: Gothic Stakes 3YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

ENDANGER (6) was sent to the paddock following his dominant Cranbourne maiden win, resuming at the Valley three weeks ago. He got a good run in transit, was a little flat before driving late to get close in limited room. He looks suited out in trip and on the bigger trip.

Dangers:

OSAMU (2) has had enough chances to break the duck, happy to take him on if he starts favourite. He is still a maiden after 8 start, he will be up on the speed and appreciate being back in this grade. MIRAITOWA (9) won on debut at Ballarat, he was very heavily backed and backer’s had little to worry about. This is harder, the map looks favourable again. SALTPETER (1) got a mile back before working to the line well at the Valley. He was a winner here at his only start at the track.

Race 4: Caulfield Classic 3YO Set Weights 2000m

LET’S KARAKA DEAL (10) is on the way up like many of these, he won his maiden at Swan Hill two starts back. He then went to Flemington for the Derby trial, was held-up most of the straight and looked to have plenty to offer. Out in trip looks ideal and he has one of the best in the business over the longer trips riding.

Dangers:

REDWOOD SHADOW (8) placed on debut then ran on hard to win his maiden last time. He goes form the mile to the 2000m, have to respect this yard. CETSHWAYO (5) won the Derby trial, he was big odds but very strong through the line. ALBARADO (2) has been very consistent, he ran on hard to narrowly miss at Listed level last time and will certainly run the trip.

Race 5: Ethereal Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 2000m

SALTO ANGEL (10) is still a maiden, she has gone 7 furlongs on debut, the mile second-up then onto 1800m last time at Flemington in the Oaks trial. She was left a little flat-footed last time but kept coming through the line, notably the blinkers go on for the first time.

Dangers:

STARELLE (3) is the stablemate to the top pick and gets Olly to ride, she is also a maiden! She was a real eye-catcher through the line in the harder Edward Manifold last start, she gets the blinkers off.  CHICA FUERTE (2) stuck on well in a harder G2 last time, her only win has come on the synthetic surface and she will be making her own luck up on the speed. SUCCEED INDEED (4) won a BM70 against the girls to get her first win, she was making ground last time when she had to be steadied late and wasn’t beaten far.

Race 6: Alinghi Stakes Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

FITEUSE (3) resumed with a win at Rosehill, she got back and produced the best last 400m of the day to get up narrowly. She was flying last prep and looks to have come back well, Willow takes the ride. She has a terrific overall record for a horse that doesn’t lead, where will he get to in the run. Willow won’t miss the chance to get a black-type win.

Dangers:

CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (2) hit the line well with the classy Villami resuming, she stuck on well after facing the breeze. She may have to sit in that position again, if she does and the top pick gets her back, load up on Fiteuse again mid-race. FROM WITHIN (4) led all the way here at the track last start, she will be making her own luck again and giving them something to run down. HUMMA HUMMA (1) will find this easier than her last couple, she will be giving them a start, look for her late.

Race 7: Caulfield Sprint Handicap 1000m

ALFA ORO (6) was scratched last week for this, he has won five in a row including a fresh win in an easier race at the Valley last time. This is his toughest test to date but he deserves his shot, he has good speed and should be on the pace early. Love the draw, Melham will have all the options.

Dangers:

GARNER (7) comes over from SA, he was never on the track and game in defeat last time at Listed level, he also pulled up lame so happy to forgive that run. SHAMINO (8) comes through that same race at Morphetville, he was closing late after also being wide throughout, he did have cover though for the majority. FABERGINO (2) has had her runs spaced, she resumed in the Moir at the Valley after coming back east and was very plain. She is better than that run and should be better suited getting back on to a bigger track.

Race 8: Moonga Stakes 4YO and Up Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

WINDSTORM (9) looks a put-in take-out job here. The WA Star has won back-to-back races here at the track, he gave them a big start on both occasions and ran over the top. Last time at Listed level, he was backed as if there was no settling, running up to hit the lead inside the furlong and was strong through the line.

Dangers:

WILD PLANET (4) was brilliant winning the Theo Marks resuming, he then went to the Epsom and although he never looked the winner, chased hard and ran through the line well. He has a poor record here and the inside draw looks tough. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (3) has not really hit his straps this campaign, he has good speed and can lead and if he returns to how he was racing this time last year, will be hard to run down.  THE INEVITABLE (7) was good up the straight fresh, a little flat last time I expect him to improve here third-up.

Race 9: Caulfield Cup Handicap 2400m

I am sticking with VERRY ELLEEGANT (7), she won the Winx Stakes resuming then looked a little disappointing in the George Main second-up but the times told a different story. She was slowly away in the Turnbull, got very wide and kept coming through the line to win narrowly. She just kept finding, the last time she was at a mile-and-a-half she bolted in.

Dangers:

ANTHONY VAN DYCK (1) has to be respected from the master Irish trainer, he resumed in France with a G2 win and has only had the 4 weeks between runs to quarantine. The draw is a worry, is he just going to be too classy? MASTER OF WINE (11) was held-up behind the top pick last start in the Turnbull, he kept coming hard through the line and is a winner at his only start at the trip. WARNING (13) has not won a race since the Derby almost a year ago, loved the way he hit the line in the Turnbull.

Race 10: Tristarc Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

Tough race to finish. Play very wide in the Quaddie after going one-out in the previous leg. SHE SHAO FLY (6) has been up for a long time, she is still racing well as she showed last time hitting the line hard. She is still yet to win in 5 runs at the track which is a little worrying, love the map and nobody in the country is riding better than Jamie Kah. RICH HIPS (9) is a last start winner here at the track, three weeks between runs and the perfect draw have her perfectly placed. MADAM ROUGE (2) has hit the line well at her last couple but has had her chances, FELICIA (4) next best with Willow retaining the ride. She will be up on the speed making her own luck.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday October 14, 2020
Wednesday @ Caulfield:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – HANSEATIC

Race 1: EMBOLISM (4) from 5, 7 and 1.
Race 2: DJANGO FREEMAN (6) from 3, 1 and 8.
Race 3: GRAND PROMENADE (2) from 4, 3 and 9.
Race 4: HANSEATIC (1) from 2 and 3.
Race 5: SARACEN KNIGHT (7) from 8, 2 and 1.
Race 6: WILLIAM THOMAS (4) from 5, 3 and 1.
Race 7: SPANISH REEF (1) from 2, 8 and 11.
Race 8: LA TIGRESSA (14) from 6, 5 and 15.


Race 1: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1600m

EMBOLISM (4) gets the blinkers on for the first time. He won on debut at Bendigo charging home from the back. He then went to Flemington, settled back and hit the line well without ever looking the winner. He was only beaten 1.45 lengths, expect him to settle closer with the gear change.

Dangers:

OATH OF OMERTA (5) and JAFFASTOCK (7) are both coming off maiden wins on debut. The former was big odds across the border in SA before working across top the front, the latter running on from mid-field at Ballarat. They both look to have ability. TANKER (1) won at the Valley last start after doing the hard way sitting outside the leader, he will go forward again but doubt he can sit parked around here with the 62kg.

Race 2: Coongy Cup 2000m

DJANGO FREEMAN (6) is still looking for his first Australian win, I loved his run in the Turnbull last time. He was mid-field in the run against some of the best stayers in the land, kept coming whilst laying in down the straight and was beaten under 3 lengths. Back in this grade and drawn well, look for him stalking them as they round the bend.

Dangers:

AL GALAYEL (3) will start at the top of the betting, and deservedly so. He has been up for a while but is flying, winning his last three including the G3 JRA Cup at The Valley last start. He was strong through the line, he just needs cover mid-field to get home as good as any. HARLEM (1) is 83-weeks between runs, he was only beaten just over 2 lengths in the Turnbull last time after sitting up on the speed. This is a lot easier. NONCONFORMIST (8) races well here at the track, I loved the way he hit the line fresh after being held-up. He should be fully fit today.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 2000m

GRAND PROMENADE (2) goes on top but I am not stoked about the price and certainly won’t be leaping into the 2/1 on offer early. He comes through a race at Flemington that we can line up the form, he got back in the run and although he made ground late, he was entitled to show a little more dash. He looks better suited back here at Caulfield where he was a winner at his only try.

Dangers:

IRISH FLAME (4) ran on hard and looked the winner in a harder race last time, he just looked to run out of steam over the last 50m. He stays at the 2000m, maps well but won’t want to get on his bike too early. GAMAY (3) is another that showed a good turn-of-foot last start but was run over late after looking the winner. LOOK SHARPISH (9) next best, she is up in grade but has run well at her last couple.

Race 4: Blue Sapphire Stakes 3YO Set Weights 1200m

I am very keen on HANSEATIC (1) to get the job done in the small field, that is the key for me, just the three runners. He comes back to his favourite track where he won the Blue Diamond Prelude before running a ripper in the main event. He has hit the line well at both runs, should be just stalking and show more brilliance late.

Dangers:

ANDERS (2) has returned a different horse, showing some returns on the potential he showed as a baby. He is 6 weeks between runs, he looks the leader again and for him to win, I think it will need to be an even tempo. RANTING (3) is still a maiden placing at four of five runs, likely to be last of the three and doubt he can run past these two.

Race 5: BM84 Handicap 2407m

SARACEN KNIGHT (7) beat a similar field last start to notch up his first Australian win at start number two on our soil. He was held-up early in the straight here at the track, balanced up at the furlong after getting clear and flew late to get up in the last couple of strides. He looks to have a very nice turn-of-foot.

Dangers:

CADRE DU NOIR (8) looks the only danger, those taking a Quaddie should be not looking any further. He was good winning at Sandown two starts back then went north and was beaten far in Sydney last time when sitting up on the speed. MASAFF (2) also comes down after racing north of the border last time, he will be giving them a start, the booking of Olly is crucial. SIN TO WIN (1) was so consistent last campaign but is now 2.5 years since his last win. He ran on well first-up behind the top pick which is not his go, he has placed at 5 of 7 when second-up.

Race 6: Caulfield Village Stakes 1200m

WILLIAM THOMAS (4) resumed here in a harder race, he got a mile back as he does, stormed home late with the best sectionals of the meeting to get into third, beaten under a length. He has a very good record second-up, winning four times here at the track and will once again be hitting the line as good as any.

Dangers:

SANSOM (5) is resuming, the last time we saw him was in the G3 Bletchingly Stakes. He ran on hard and wasn’t beaten far, tough ask here fresh but he does have a good record when resuming. CORUSCATE (3) resumed with a Listed win here at the track, he will be up on the speed, but I am just a little bit scared that he may be caught up on the fence behind a tiring leader? If Olly does his thing, he will be hard to beat in an open race. THE VELVET KING (1) is an interesting runner, over from the west first-up for the Moody stable. Watch the betting with him

Race 7: Ladies Day Vase Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1600m

SPANISH REEF (1) has not won a race since this day last year, in this exact race. She broke a run of outs that day as well, sitting up outside the speed and was way too strong. Her form has only been fair of late but this is a lot easier than what she has been racing, hopefully she settles handy from the draw.

Dangers:

Tough race! PARADEE (2) won three races last campaign, she resumed here against the girls and stuck on well after being trapped three-wide without cover. She probably should have won second-up last time in, she looks to have come back well. SOVEREIGN AWARD (8) is a last start winner at the Valley, she was very well backed and gets the in-form Jamie Kah sticking with the ride. CHAILLOT (11) is an interesting runner, she is undefeated after three starts including a first-up win after 73-weeks off. She charged home that day at Flemington, she may have a stack more upside than this lot?

Race 8: BM84 Handicap 1400m

LA TIGRESSA (14) has the horrible draw to overcome, it is was almost exactly one year to the day since her last win. She was good here at the track in a harder race last time, she got back and ran on hard into third in a blanket finish.

Dangers:

Many. KAZIO (6) is also drawn wide, he has been good at two runs back since contesting a G1 here at the track over the Autumn carnival. VIRAL (5) won back-to-back races last campaign including one here at Caulfield, he has versatility so there will be some decisions for Willow early. If MARITANA (15) gets a start as the first emergency he comes into consideration of consecutive Mornington wins.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday October 10, 2020
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 2 – SWATS THAT

Race 1: EXTREME WARRIOR (5) from 2, 12 and 10.
Race 2: SWATS THAT (3) from 1, 6 and 4.
Race 3: WINDSTORM (6) from 2, 8 and 4.
Race 4: LYRE (7) from 4, 8 and 1.
Race 5: DIAMOND EFFORT (10) from 9, 4 and 1.
Race 6: RUSSIAN CAMELOT (6) from 2, 4 and 5.
Race 7: INSTANT CELEBRITY (3) from 1, 9 and 2.
Race 8: KING’S LEGACY (2) from 3, 1 and 9.
Race 9: BUFFALO RIVER (15) from 13, 11 and 1.
Race 10: CHAPADA (9) from 3, 11 and 1.


Race 1: Debutant Stakes 2YO 1000m

15 babies face the starter for the first time. Watch the betting for a better guide, especially with those from the big stables. EXTREME WARRIOR (5) for Mick Price, ANAMOE (2) for Godolphin, FAKE LOVE (12) for the Maher/Eustace yard and BEACH LAP (10) for Danny O’Brien. Pass.

Race 2: Thoroughbred Club Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

SWATS THAT (3) looked a little flat first-up before hitting the line well, she then went to the Valley last time and brained her opposition in a race no easier than this. She sat off the track without cover, took over before straightening and was strong through the line off a tough run. How do they beat her off that?

Dangers:

LETZBEGLAM (1) resumed at Flemington in the same race as the top pick, she also looked a little flat and was out-sprinted when asked. She bolted in at the Blue Diamond Prelude at her only other second-up run so expect improvement. HIGHLY DISCREET (6) ran on hard at the Valley behind the top selection but was entitled to, not sure the small field suits here. MUNTASEERA (4) is a dual acceptor between here and Sydney, she was very good winning fresh.

Race 3: Weekend Hussler Stakes 1400m

WINDSTORM (6) was rewarded with a win last start off two good efforts since coming east. Two back in Listed company at Flemington, he was beaten as favourite but lost no admirers running through the line well. He then came here last time and stormed home from well back, he has been good at both runs at the track.

Dangers:

RUNSON (2) has good tactical speed and will try to lead these, he stuck on well last time here at the track after being headed. BEEHUNTER (8) will start one of the roughest in the market with the bagmen, he looks suited by the small field and will be hitting the line hard. He won well second-up last campaign. CUBA (4) is an interesting runner that comes down from Sydney, he led for a long way fresh, beaten by Probabeel who has since come out and won the Epsom, it looks a good form reference.

Race 4: Northwood Plume Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

LYRE (7) on top in what looks a typically open race for the girls. (Assuming How Womantic doesn’t race in this). She was slowly away in the lead-up here last start, clipped heels early before chasing steadily. She never really looked likely but happy to forgive after what happened early. She was a short-priced favourite also and today we are getting each-way odds?

Dangers:

FELICIA (4) was the winner of that race, she did it the hard way sitting up outside the speed. She will go forward again form the wide draw, love Willow when he is on these on-speed types. FIESTA (8) stormed home in the same race, she doesn’t have a great record second-up but like the booking of Hughie, you just know that he will be very patient on her. XILONG (1) gets a couple of gear changes including the blinkers off, she has a good record fresh and was a recent trial winner back in SA.

Race 5: Schillaci Stakes WFA 1100m

DIAMOND EFFORT (10) is a real winner, she won here at the track resuming then lost no admirers in the Moir last start. She was mid-field and over-racing there at the Valley, had to be steadied a couple of times approaching the straight and was good through the line, only beaten 2 lengths. If she gets cover, look for her charging over the top late.

Dangers:

ALFA ORO (9) steps up in grade but he thoroughly deserves his chance. He has won five in a row, he was way too quick for his rivals at the Valley last time and will be giving them something to catch. ORDER OF COMMAND (4) was beaten as favourite here resuming, this is harder but he has a tremendous second-up record  and gets Olly going on. HEY DOC (1) has an 8 next to his name after resuming in the Moir, the run was a lot better than that after he was forced to sit four and five wide throughout. He has a good second-up record, but needs to improve on what he has done here at the track previously.

Race 6: Caulfield Stakes WFA 2000m

RUSSIAN CAMELOT (6) looks a put-in take-out job from what we saw of him here in the Underwood. He was up on the speed, came to the middle of the track in the straight and just worked to the line brilliantly after doing plenty of work to score easily. He meets a similar field, draws well, up in trip and just wins. Get on all futures bets now, as when he towels them up here, he will be a big shortener in everything!

Dangers:

None. How do they beat him? HUMIDOR (2) is racing well but isn’t getting any younger, he had his chance at the upset of a lifetime against Winx a few years ago in a Cox Pate. HARBOUR VIEWS (4) is talented and worked home well in the Underwood but looks a class below and ARCADIA QUEEN (5) looks the lay of the day, impossible to see her turning the tables on the top pick after last start, even with the bar plates coming off.

Race 7: Thousand Guineas 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1600m

INSTANT CELEBRITY (3) is undefeated after four starts, she was solid at the top of betting in the Prelude to this a fortnight ago and won with a leg in the air. She got back in the run, improved very wide on the turn and was strong through the line, Willow sticks with the ride. We are getting a better price today for some reason?

Dangers:

HUNGRY HEART (1) engaged could be that reason, she is becoming very costly for her supporters though. She has been runner-up at all three runs this time in, she has had her chance s at all three, certainly no excuses at the last couple. Interestingly the blinkers go on? ODEUM (9) was good through the line winning an easier race here last time, she looks suited getting out to the mile. THERMOSPHERE (2) won the Edward Manifold at HQ last start, she was wide throughout and not entitled to stick on as well as she did. Likely to be ridden for luck from the low draw.

Race 8: Caulfield Guineas 3YO Set Weights 1600m

KING’S LEGACY (2) looks suited getting out to the mile, she ran on hard in the Golden Rose from a mile back producing the best 800-200m sectional of the race. It was set-up for the back-markers but I think he was the run of the race, he is already a G1 winner at the mile back in the Autumn.

Dangers:

OLE KIRK (3) was very impressive winning the Golden Rose, the race was set-up for him but he did still have to produce the best last furlong of the race to get up narrowly. Pike on… hmmm… TAGALOA (1) was the Blue Diamond winner here as a juvenile, if he can reproduce that run, he would be right in this. He gets the blinkers off; his run was ok in the Rupert Clarke. MO’UNGA (9) is undefeated and gets Olly riding, he will be giving them a start and gets his chance up in grade to stay undefeated.

Race 9: Toorak Handicap 1600m

BUFFALO RIVER (15) lost no admirers when resuming here a fortnight ago. He was forced to work early to eventually get on the speed, stuck on well only to be beaten a half-length by Windstorm who goes around earlier, see how that form line holds up. He will go forward again and looks much better drawn.

Dangers:

JUNIPAL (13) was good winning an easier race here last start, a little concerning with Allen riding from the wide draw, he can be a little negative at times. SIRRCONI (11) has good speed, he is 5-weeks between runs and will be looking for the top early. MR QUICKIE (1) may not be suited back under handicap conditions, hard to ignore his run here two starts back though in the Memsie.

Race 10: Herbert Power Stakes 2400m

Happy to take on the fave here. CHAPADA (9) was runner-up last start at big odds here, he was first-up that day and giving them a big start and was really strong through the line. He goes from 2000-2400m here second-up, expect that he will be back in the pack again but the speed looks genuine enough.

Dangers:

ORDEROFTHEGARTER (3) can certainly win but not keen to get involved at the shorts. He had placed at his first three Australian runs, all well spaced, before getting win number one on our soil here in the Naturalism. He was string through the line but did have everything go to plan, will need another gun ride from Olly. POLLY GREY (11) hasn’t won in almost a year to the day but gets a huge jockey change with Willow replacing John Allen. THE CHOSEN ONE (1) charged home to win fresh, he was only fair at WFA last time behind the star Russian Camelot. This looks more suitable.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday October 7, 2020
Wednesday @ Bendigo:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – BLACK PENN

Race 1: FAR ENOUGH (5) from 1, 3 and 2.
Race 2: BLACK PENN (8) from 3, 13 and 6.
Race 3: CAPTAIN SPUD (19) from 11, 6 and 14.
Race 4: UNANIMOUS (6) from 3, 9 and 5.
Race 5: OCULAR (6) from 4, 1 and 7.
Race 6: TATALINA (8) from 4, 1 and 10.
Race 7: ZERO DOUBT (6) from 10, 2 and 18.
Race 8: WESTBROOK PARK (2) from 11, 12 and 5.


Race 1: Maiden Plate 1000m

Going with the first-starter FAR ENOUGH (5) here off a good jump-out, the booking of Oliver is the key and although there looks to be a few winners in the race, he could be above average.

Dangers:

Tough race. The other debutant ARCANE SUPREMACY (1) stays under notice from the Ellerton/Zahra yard, SQUAMANZER (3) hasn’t been far away at two career runs, he gets the blinkers off here. GUTSY (2) placed at three in a row before a fair effort prior to going to the paddock. Watch for any money for him resuming.

Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m

BLACK PENN (8) has placed at both of his career starts, firstly art Sandown on a hevy track then was sent straight to the paddock. He resumed at Echuca and ran on hard from the back, he did have his chance coming with the winner in the run home. He looks suited getting out to the mile on the big track.

Dangers:

HOSTILE TAKEOVER (3) looks to have come back well from the paddock, he a 7YO though and has only had the five starts, placing at the last couple. ULTIMATE EDITION (13) showed more speed to place at career start two, he was forced to sit outside the leader and stuck on well. WILLETTS (6) has placed at all three runs this time in, he was beaten a long way into third at the latest but did have a torrid run in transit.

Race 3: Maiden Plate 1400m

Tough race with so many unknowns, the biggest of them not knowing if CAPTAIN SPUD (19) will get a start as the fifth emergency? If he does he will start at the top of the betting, he placed here at the track on debut in what was a harder maiden than this, then was all over the shop last time at Geelong, racing green throughout.

Dangers:

ZOUTELLUS (11) has placed at both of his starts, he was beaten a long way into second last time but that winner looks well above average. CHARMED INDIVIDUAL (6) resumes off a break, his only run was on a heavy track more than 3 months back. He hit a flat spotted but stuck on ok, don’t be surprised to see big improvement back on top of the ground after the time in the paddock. Watch for any money from those on debut, in particular SABRE PRINCESS (14) drawn the carpark for Mick Price.

Race 4: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1100m

UNANIMOUS (6) was resuming at Sandown six weeks ago, he was well backed and started at $4.40. He got back in the run and was last in the small field approaching the straight he worked home well out wide to get within the length. Look for him late again.

Dangers:

RIVER TWAIN (3) won his maiden at Geelong two back, he then went to the Valley and after sitting up on the speed, took over before getting run down late. They key for him is if he can lead again. TWAIN’S EXPRESS (9) was sent straight to the paddock following an impressive debut win on the soft track. This is harder. SHOW SOMOE DECORUM (5) resumes and will find this easier than his last start, he has enough tactical speed to take up aa spot on the pace.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1100m

OCULAR (6) bolted in at his level when resuming here at the track, he had the gun run behind the speed and put a gap on them. He then went up the straight last time and loomed up to win but pulled up lame, easy to forgive that run. It’s going to take a gem of a ride, he is the one to beat if he gets cover early.

Dangers:

THE GAUCH (4) is going for three wins in a row, he sat wide and bolted in by 5 at Mornington then had a soft run before a 2-length win last time. This is no harder, but the map puts him where? YULONG STORM (1) has won four of his last five starts (including beating the top pick last time) and is really flying this prep. Going through the grades nicely, he will be giving them a start but will finish as good as any under the big weight after the claim. GRAND SCHOLAR (7) is resuming, she was going well early in the prep last campaign and will appreciate being back in this grade.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 2400m

TATALINA (8) is an interesting runner that gets Olly in the saddle, she was only fair when going across the border last time. She has been a while since she has been in the winner’s stall but should be fully fit here. She has the talent, this looks her race.

Dangers:

ZOFFALA (4) looks the obvious danger, he was very strong through the line last time to win at Sale. He steps up in trip, this is harder but he looks like he is suited to the mile and a half. PROTECTION MONEY (1) will get back, he was ok here at the track two starts back chasing hard along the rails. MISS FIVE HUNDRED (10) gets the blinkers off for the first time, she will also get back. She came with a long run and stuck on well for second last time in easier grade.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1600m

ZERO DOUBT (6) was a winner in this grade last start at Sandown on the Hillside track, he showed good speed to lead and settled well. He kicked early in the straight and never looked like getting run down. He has the good draw in 4, if he lands on the bunny again and the track is favouring those on the sped, he looks one of the better each-way bets on the card.

Dangers:

IRISH PLAYBOY (10) resumed with a win, last time at Ballarat he just got too far back and over-raced, unable to finish off well enough. I expect him to be a lot sharper here third-up. THINK ‘N’ FLY (2) has the wide draw, he is undefeated at two previous second-up starts. If he gets cover, look for him late.  If STEAMBOAT ROCK (18) gets a start as the fourth emergency, he will start near the top of the market. It must be noted Olly has been booked for the ride.

Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1400m

WESTBROOK PARK (2) won back-to-back races last campaign, he was off the scene for 39 weeks before resuming here at Bendigo last time. It was a harder race than this and after settling mid-field, chased hard to get inside 2 lengths at the finish in a race that has already produced a subsequent winner.

Dangers:

Most of them. Tough race. CASA DEL SOL (11) was a synthetic winner on debut then got too far back and layed in on the run home last time. Expect improvement with the winkers on. FAIRY WAND (12) had excuses when the saddle shifted early on when resuming, she was good at her only other second-up, also her eat the track. PAY YOUR DUES (5) is a last start winner that comes up in grade today, he maps well and should be handy to the speed again.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday October 3, 2020
Saturday @ Flemington:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – TOFANE

Race 1: GENERAL BEAU (1) from 8, 10 and 12.
Race 2: MINHAAJ (7) from 6, 5 and 8.
Race 3: FASCINO (10) from 12, 4 and 7.
Race 4: TOFANE (4) from 6, 2 and 5.
Race 5: SUCCEED INDEED (5) from 11, 1 and 8.
Race 6: SCHABAU (12) from 4, 2 and 6.
Race 7: VERRY ELLEEGANT (9) from 14, 6 and 3.
Race 8: PERFECT JEWEL (6) from 2, 3 and 5.
Race 9: YOUNG WERTHER (14) from 3, 4 and 9.


Race 1: Maribyrnong Plate 2YO Set Weights 1000m

The traditional babies race to start the “spring”, going the last start winner GENERAL BEAU (1) who is one of only three that have raced before. He was up the straight here over 900m, sat up on the speed and kicked clear past the clock tower for a soft win. Up in trip but should race on the speed again, importantly he has that experience up the straight.

Dangers:

Too hard. Watch the betting for those on debut, in particular VINLAGO (8) EXCELA BELLA (10) and NAPLES (12).

Race 2: Poseidon Stakes 3YO Set weights and Penalties 1100m

MINHAAJ (7) resumed at Flemington three weeks ago, he was mid-field in the run and kept coming through the line to get into third. That race has proven a good form reference, her only poor run to date was in the Slipper where she clearly wasn’t right.

Dangers:

MILDRED (6) goes well here up the straight. She resumed here over this trip three weeks ago in the same race a few of these came through, led for a long way before tiring. She has a win and a placing from two previous second-up runs. PORTLAND SKY (5) won easily on debut then went Caulfield and had no luck when held-up behind the speed. He only got clear late and looked to have plenty to offer through the line. SEPTEMBER RUN (8) was the winner of that race that we have been referring to, she was big odds and charged home from the back half. She will need the speed on again.

Race 3: Paris Lane Stakes Handicap 1400m

FASCINO (10) was thrown in against much better opposition at the back-end of last prep and looks to have come back well. She resumed against the girls, was back in the run and held-up basically the entire straight. She was beaten 3 lengths but looked to have plenty to offer, she will get back again but gets a cheap run form the good draw.

Dangers:

LEGIONNAIRE (12) has been good at two starts since resuming after having almost a year on the sidelines. He was a little flat-footed when they quickened last start but really picked up late. Stepping up to the 7 furlongs looks ideal. BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (4) has been more than a year between wins, he has been racing the best of the best of late and will appreciate coming back to this grade. GALAXY RAIDER (7) found them too quick resuming, out in trip and down in grade, he can certainly improve.

Race 4: Gilgai Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

What a ripper of a race this is. TOFANE (4) beat a star-studded field in the All Aged Stakes in Sydney over the Autumn, he produced an enormous finish down the middle of the track to get up in the last stride. He was not beaten far here up the straight when resuming, he has a much better record second-up. Olly sticks with the ride, anything better than $3 is good enough.

Dangers:

SANTA ANA LANE (6) always needs everything to go right, and he doesn’t have a great record here at the track. He has been one of the best sprinters in the land over the last couple of seasons, look for his trademark finishing burst over the last furlong. ZOUTORI (2) won the Bobby Lewis here resuming, he also has great closing speed. THE INEVITABLE (5) will get back as well, this may be just out of his class though.

Race 5: Edward Manifold Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1600m

SUCCEED INDEED (5) won her first race last start, interestingly it was not in a maiden. She was a mile back in a Fillies BM70 at Sandown, got to the outside and the bt8ter going and stormed over the top to win easily in the end. She stays at the mile and should appreciate the big track.

Dangers:

MISS GUGGENHEIM (11) won her maiden last start at Geelong and looks to have plenty of upside. She was very well backed and after getting back in the run, was held-up early in the straighth before smashing the line late. The mile should be right up her alley. THERMOSPHERE (1) was good fresh when narrowly missing in Sydney, two runs since have only been fair although she was wide without cover last time. This is her first go the Melbourne way. CHICA FUERTE (8) gets the winkers for the first time, she showed a lot more speed last time and out to the mile, expect her to go forward again.

Race 6: The Bart Cummings Handicap 2510m

SCHABAU (12) looked to be the next superstar before having more than a year off, it’s fair to say that he has had his chances at two runs back. He will get up on the speed, he just needs to settle better than he did last start. He loomed up to win and hit the lead only to be run down late. He has the talent, not sure the wide gate suits as he may get parked?

Dangers:

STEEL PRINCE (4) was not suited first-up, he then went to Caulfield and ran on well into third only beaten a length over 2000m last time. Out in trip again looks to suit, his on the right path to the Cup again. SHARED AMBITION (2) comes down from Sydney after placing in the Kingston Town last start. He gets WIllow to ride, if he settles, he can run on hard late as he showed last start with the best last 600m of the race. SOUND (6) has a poor record here at HQ, he was strong through the line last time and won’t need to improve much off that run to place here.

Race 7: Turnbull Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 2000m

VERRY ELLEEGANT (9) looks to be a huge price, her win in Sydney when resuming was unbelievable on a day when the track was not really suited. She then went to the George Main last start and was just in black figures, got a mile back and ran home in the best last 800m of the race against the pattern. She loves it third-up, the only question mark for me is Zahra taking the ride.

Dangers:

SUPERSTORM (14) is still yet to win since coming East, forget he went around in the Rupert Clarke. He was well back and held-up early in the straight, he then was working to the line nicely but hit a brick wall again late. MASTER OF WINE (6) was left a little flat-footed in the Makybe Diva but kept coming through the line, the extra distance suits and we have seen what Russian Camelot has done since. SURPRISE BABY (3) looks to have come back well, he resumed at the Valley I the Feehan and after being stuck wide for the second half of the race, was still coming through the line. The form has held-up well with Humidor coming out and racing well again.

Race 8: Blazer Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

PERFECT JEWEL (6) was brilliant winning her first start over from WA, she was good here second-up then looked the winner at the Valley before getting nabbed late with daylight back to third. Wide draws are usually a no-go zone here at the 1400m, she just needs the right horse to tow her into it and she will be hard to hold out.

Dangers:

RUBISAKI (2) resumes, she took everything before her last prep, but is she just a wet-tracker? She resumed at Caulfield 5-weeks ago, she got back and was very plain in the run home. She is undefeated second-up, expect her to improve but really need to see her do it at this level on top of the ground. PRETTY BRAZEN (3) won the Let’s Elope here two starts back and always goes well at the track. She was a real eye-catcher last time, look for her late. MADAM ROUGE (5) also comes through the Rupert Clarke, she hasn’t won since the GC MMillions Sprint early in the year.

Race 9: UCI Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1800m

YOUNG WERTHER (14) looks one of the bets of the day. He was on debut at Gelelong three weeks ago at maiden level, after only being fairly away he was mid-field in the run before running on hard to score. He layed in up the straight and looks to still have plenty to learn, but winning at start one over 1500m like he did, shows the talent. He only needs even luck and I would expect he will be winning this, and a lot more over the next 18 months.

Dangers:

None. ALCYONE (3) goes in for the minors, he was only getting warmed up late when resuming and will be better for the run. He gets a minor gear change, Allen rides again for Godolphin. WISE COUNSEL (4) won his first race at career start three, he should be up on the speed as he was at Caulfield. THE BRUMBY (9) has the extreme draw to overcome, he is at his sixth start at prep number one but is still racing well. He was slightly held-up here last start before working to the line well late.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday October 2, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 9 – JUST ZERENE

Race 1: TRODAIRE (7) from 2, 1 and 5.
Race 2: ICE ICE BABY (4) from 3, 1 and 7.
Race 3: NORTHERN VOYAGE (7) from 1, 2 and 4.
Race 4: PIONEER RIVER (9) from 11, 6 and 3.
Race 5: THE STYLIST (9) from 4, 1 and 2.
Race 6: METEORITE (5) from 14, 2 and 9.
Race 7: LOOK SHARPISH (3) from 9, 1 and 4.
Race 8: TITAN BLINDERS (4) from 2, 5 and 3.
Race 9: JUST ZERENE (8) from 2, 10 and 3.


Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1600m

TRODAIRE (7) has to step out of maiden grade, the way he won at Echuca was most encouraging. He was double figure odds resuming that day, got back in the run and was clearly the best through the line late to win. Stepping out to the mile looks ideal and with the right horse to cart him into it, should finish best again.

Dangers:

CRIMINAL (2) won his maiden on heavy going earlier this prep, he has had two starts since including a win at BM64 level last time at Cranbourne. He was strong through the line with a big gap to third in what has proven a good form race. TANKER (1) has not won since his debut but has shown improvement at his last couple. He showed good tactical speed to lead last time, that looks the key again, getting across to the rails first. OCEANOGRAPHY (5) won his maiden after getting out to the mile for the first time at Sandown three weeks ago, it was good effort after sitting up on the speed. This is obviously harder.

Race 2: 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m

ICE ICE BABY (4) has placed at both his career runs, he was off the track at Moe on debut and stuck on well after a tough run then went to Ballarat and had every chance closing the entire straight. He maps out which I like, he should be three and four-wide sling-shotting around the final bend in what is a tough race to assess.

Dangers:

FIXATED (3) has been consistent placing at four of his 6 career starts, he looked the winner at Bendigo at his latest before getting swamped late. Respect any money for those making their debut tonight, in particular DAUNTING MAGIC (1) and SHELBY COBRA (7).

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 3000m

NORTHERN VOYAGE (7) won a Coleraine jumps race earlier this prep by as far as you can kick ya hat, he then didn’t handle the class rise and heavy track in the JJ Houlahan. He came back to the flat at Echuca last time and salute din an easier race, he should be making his own luck up on the speed and know that he will run the trip.

Dangers:

MASERATIE BAY (1) is flying winning three in a row, He has shown he can do it in different ways and at both ends, last start he was very short in the market leading all the way. The start prior he came from well back with a long run, expect that is how they will ride him here. JUKILA (2) was good on the heavy track at his last couple, he maps to get a soft run just behind the speed. BLANDFORD LAD (4) has only been fair at his last few runs and needs to improve, he can do that as the speed should be genuine and he can finish his race off.

Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1200m

PIONEER RIVER (9) resumed at Caulfield in a much harder race than this, he ran on well and will appreciate getting out to the 1200m. He was a Listed placegetter last campaign which was second-up as he is today, look for him late.

Dangers:

ELLIS PARK (11) is the first-emergency but comes into play if he gets a start, maps beautifully and the booking of Willow suggests that he will be lining up. PHOENIX GLOBAL (6) won two races last campaign, he was up on the speed before running out of puff late. Expect that he will get a gun run behind the speed. ASTRAEUS (3) is resuming off a 20-week break, he has the wide draw but enough speed to offset it. If he finds the front, he will be hard to run down.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1200m

THE STYLIST (9) doesn’t have a great record when resuming but there was a lot to like about her latest jump-out. She was ok in the Bendigo Bracelet before going to the paddock, she wasn’t beaten far in the Autumn in much harder races than this.

Dangers:

DESIGNER CHEF (4) placed at his only other fresh run, he was really strong through the line at the back-end of 1400m at his latest win, he will need the speed on.  MOI CHOUX (1) resumed at Cranbourne, he was brave in defeat after sitting parked in the breeze. He will go forward again and is a perfect 2/2 when second-up. INDERNILE (2) is resuming and is a two-time winner when fresh, he will be giving them a start.

Race 6: BM64 Handicap 955m

METEORITE (5) has been gelded since we last saw him at the races. He is a winner here at the track over 1200m previously, he has tactical speed but may find them too nippy early. He gets the blinkers off and should be stalking the speed.

Dangers:

ROTATOR (14) looks the main danger if she gets a start, but she does need four scratching’s before she lines up. She was last seen at the Bool and led for a long way, as always with this stable, watch for any positive market moves. I KNEWSHEWASMINE (2) led up the straight last time but was poor late, I love the claim in these jump-and-run affairs from the wide draw. It should just be handlebars down from the off. DANE CLIPPER (9) is an interesting runner fresh, she won her only other first-up run on debut and gets Willow to ride.

Race 7: BM64 Handicap 2040m

LOOK SHARPISH (3) won a BM64 at Benalla two starts ago, he was off the track and without cover throughout for a tough win. He then went to Bendigo against the girls, loomed up to win but just found one better. She has been racing well since getting back on top of the ground.

Dangers:

PICCATRIC (9) is a dual-acceptor, she has been doing most of her racing on the synthetic of late and is having her first run at the track. She maps well and should be handy with cover, she is racing well. FIRSTCLASS DREAMER (1) has been very consistent this campaign, he maps well and gets the good claim. He doesn’t have a great record at the track, hopefully the soft run he gets on paper unfolds. EXCELMAN (4) was DQ’d fresh then was very short in the betting last time at Cranbourne when narrowly beaten. He was back in the run before coming wide and running on well, he had every chance but there was a huge gap back to third.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1600m

TITAN BLINDERS (4) doesn’t win out of turn but is so, so consistent. He has been runner-up at his last four starts, including three this time in. He led at Flemington and was run down late, he looks better suited here on the smaller track, expect him to take a sit with cover which may be the difference.

Dangers:

ROYAL PERFORMANCE (2) ran on hard at Flemington last start and was strong through the line, he has placed at both of his previous second-up runs. He gets a good claim, look for him late. CHUCK A LUCK (5) gets the winkers off and the blinkers on for the first time, he got well back and attacked the line well for second last start at Cranbourne. This is his first go here, he will need a gun ride from the horror draw. SOVEREIGN AWARD (3) maps well and gets the in-form Jamie Kah to ride, she just needs to settle in her run better than she did here three weeks ago.

Race 9: Mares BM70 1000m

JUST ZERENE (8) looks a one-out job for Quaddie players, in saying that she is not going to be flash odds. She won by 6 lengths resuming last prep before winning again then placing at Listed level across the border in the Lightning Stakes. She gets a few gear changes, hopefully Olly just rides her as the best horse and takes luck out of it. I don’t expect you will be getting black odds at the jump.

Dangers:

THE COMMONER (2) is resuming and has a terrific record fresh. She has enough speed to lead, will she get there though? SCREENAGER (10) is resuming and will be giving them a start. She didn’t show a lot last prep, watch the betting for any support. If she is a big drifter late, stay away. BALLE D’OR (3) will find this easier than last start and looks suited back against the girls. She has good speed but can tend to over-race.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday September 30, 2020
Wednesday @ Ballarat:

Track: Heavy 8 Rail: RAIL – Out 4m 1600m – 800m, Out 8m Remainder.

Best Bet: Race 1 – REDWOOD SHADOW

Race 1: REDWOOD SHADOW (7) from 4, 9 and 3.
Race 2: LADY IN THE SKY (4) from 7, 9 and 3.
Race 3: ZELIFY (11) from 3, 10 and 7.
Race 4: CANFORD’S SON (1) from 3, 4 and 11.
Race 5: SALOME (8) from 2, 1 and 3.
Race 6: HOUSAY (1) from 2, 6 and 4.
Race 7: STEAMBOAT ROCK (7) from 1, 6 and 12.
Race 8: SANCTIMONIUS (8) from 9, 10 and 1.


Race 1: Maiden Plate 1600m

REDWOOD SHADOW (7) debuted at Donald three weeks ago, he was a big price and got well back in the run. He got to the middle of the track and ran on hard into third without ever looking the winner. The race has proven a good form guide, the winner has come out and saluted at start two and ran a bottler in a Caulfield Guineas Preview last week. Stepping out to the mile looks to suit.

Dangers:

CRACKERJACK PRINCE (4) has a similar profile, got back on debut at big odds and hit the line hard. Jumping up from the 7 furlongs to the mile looks ideal. VILANCULOS (9) ran on hard on debut against the girls in a good form race and SIR PETER (3) can improve coming off a torrid run and with the one heavy track run under his belt.

Race 2: Maiden Plate 1400m

LADY IN THE SKY (4) was consistent through four runs at her first prep, she was sent to the paddock and has had the best part of 6-months between runs. She has been good at the jump-outs and although she may need further, expect her to be strong through the line in what looks a weak maiden.

Dangers:

CAPTAIN CANUCK (7) was poor on debut then sent to the paddock, he resumed at Donald in a string form race, he was good through the line without having much luck. KENTUCKY DREAM (9) also got back at his debut, up to the 1400m looks ideal and this yard can really improve one second-up. FLASH FREDDIE (3) hasn’t shown a lot at her four starts but they are persisting and not sending her for a spell. If she is ridden for luck, she can run a place.

Race 3: 3YO Fillies Maiden Plate

Tough race with less than half the field been to the races before. I expect ZELIFY (11) to improve second-up for Waller, she was a mile back at Geelong resuming and after being held-up from the 600m into the straight, ran on hard when clear and was a real eye-catcher late. She will start favourite but not keen to take anything near even money.

Dangers:

ELEANOR RIVER (3) gets a gear change with the winkers on for the first time, she can improve off a fair effort coming to the turf for the first time. UNIQUELY (10) is drawn out, she showed good speed to lead on debut but may have just run out of puff. Expect her to go forward again, maybe a bet in the run if she gets to the rail first. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular MERVA (7) for the McEvoy and Currie combo.

Race 4: Maiden Plate 1200m

CANFORD’S SON (1) has had enough chances, he won’t get any better than this. He looks to have come back well at Ballarat on the synthetic surface, he got a mile back before getting to the middle of the track and was straight in the blackbook, flashing for second beaten the shortest possible. Up to the 6 furlongs looks ideal and will get back again, look for her late.

Dangers:

TOTALITY (3) is resuming and has shown enough at the jump-outs, he didn’t show much at his first prep, don’t be surprised to see show a stack of improvement. BETHPAGE (4) has been consistent but has had 9 chances to break the duck, she gets a minor gear change and should be making her own luck up on the speed. MURCHISON (11) is a first-starter for the Maher/Eustace yard, she looks to have a stack of potential from what we have seen at the un-official jump-outs.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1000m

SALOME (8) gets the tongue-tie on, she resumed at Swan Hill and was very well backed to start favourite after opening $5, she ran on hard to just miss in a race that has produced two subsequent winners. She looked to have every chance last time when second-up after a soft run behind the speed, she maps well again here and should be a lot sharper.

Dangers:

Tough race, don’t discard any of them if you are playing the Quadrella. BALLE D’OR (2) won two in a row on the synthetic tracks, she over-raced and didn’t go well up the straight last time. She looks better suited coming back to the bend. HE CAN STAR (1) has won three times this campaign but has had 5 weeks between runs, he showed good speed last start and expect him to be in the firing line early. MISTAKE (3) is resuming having won 2 of 3 previously when first-up. Not sure about the jockey change with Allen going on, I expect that he won’t be overly positive early!

Race 6: Class 1 Handicap 1200m

HOUSAY (1) could not have been more impressive on debut at Wodonga, he was well backed to start around 6/4 in the old and those that took the shorts, had a very easy watch. He settled mid-field, was three-deep approaching the turn and took over at the furlong, charging away to win by 7 lengths. Yes, he has to step out of maiden grade but what else can he do!

Dangers:

ZORRO’S DREAM (2) looks the obvious danger, his two runs back this prep have been enormous, was wide off the track no cover resuming then held-up last time and only got clear at the furlong. NO RESTRICTION (6) was sent straight to the paddock off a good debut win, she chased hard resuming but did appear to have every chance. She maps well again here form the good gate. SINGING SWORD (4) won by more than 4 lengths in an Echuca maiden at start 6, she may have turned the corner following that easy win.

Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1600m

STEAMBOAT ROCK (7) gets Olly taking the ride, he won his maiden on a heavy track before going to the paddock. He resumed with Walker riding at Geelong, was slowly away and got well back before storming home and was only beaten just over 2 lengths. Expect him to settle back again.

Dangers:

LORD MARKEL (1) has only been fair at three runs since winning fresh, he gets a couple of gear changes including the blinkers going on for the first time. SHAMAL LASS (6) was only fair resuming on the heavy, last time at Geelong she had zero luck, held-up until the last 1000m when the race was all over. MAIA NEBULA (12) looks suited getting out to the mile, she was left flat-footed but kept working to the line well.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1400m

Tough race to finish the day. SANCTIMONIUS (8) was two years between runs before resuming at Bendigo, he got back and worked home nice enough off such a long break. He was racing in black-type events before the long lay-off, he certainly has the potential!

Dangers:

JESTA DREAM (9) has not won in more than a year, his runs have been spaced lately but I do like the way he has been hitting the line. ZENDE (10) showed that he handles the conditions well winning on the heavy surface at the Bool. He was ok last time but appeared to have every chance. BRILLIANT CONCEPT (1) loves the heavy track, he may just find them too nippy over the 7 furlongs fresh but with him handling the conditions better than most, will pass a lot of them in the straight.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday September 26, 2020
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 6m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 8 – MR QUICKIE Each-Way

Race 1: HOW WOMANTIC (2) from 9, 4 and 6.
Race 2: DUKE OF PLUMPTON (6) from 12, 15 and 5.
Race 3: LE BAOL (3) from 8, 7 and 11.
Race 4: ALFA ORO (7) from 6, 4 and 1.
Race 5: WINDSTORM (7) from 9, 4 and 5.
Race 6: CAMBOURNE (10) from 5, 3 and 1.
Race 7: INSTANT CELEBRITY (4) from 5, 8 and 1.
Race 8: MR QUICKIE (6) from 10, 7 and 9.
Race 9: JUNIPAL (9) from 7, 8 and 10.


Race 1: Mares BM90 Handicap 1100m

HOW WOMANTIC (2) has only tasted defeat once in her 6 career starts, she resumed against the girls at the Valley three weeks ago. She had good enough speed to lead and found the rail, she kicked and fended off the challengers to narrowly hold on. She will be better for the run and has won twice here at the track. They stick with the kid claiming 2 kg’s.

Dangers:

KALKARNI ROYALE (9) is first up, she was last seen up the straight in the Winter at Listed level where she didn’t have much luck on a couple of occasions. She maps to get the gun run behind the speed. ALGADON MISS (4) is also first-up and hasn’t been seen in almost a year, she had no luck in what was this race last year at her last appearance. Watch the betting with her. WAYUPINTHESKY (6) was poor resuming in Sydney, it’s been almost a year to the day since she won a race. She will be giving them a start and need everything to go right.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1400m

Tough race! DUKE OF PLUMPTON (6) is resuming at the 1400m which is an ask, he did win over this trip when fresh last campaign before placing at a couple of similar races to this. GRAND DE FLORA (12) was right out to the 2000m before going to the paddock last start, he is a perfect 2/2 when fresh including a romp by 6 lengths last campaign when resuming. RICH HIPS (15) has the carpark draw and will need luck, look for her late if she gets the right horse to follow into it. JITTERY JACK (5) won two in a row earlier this prep, including a 7-length job at Flemington. He over-raced badly last time and was the first beaten, if he settles, he has shown how good he can be.

Race 3: BM84 Handicap 2000m

LE BAOL (3) is a new addition to the Lindsey Smith yard, he has had one run in Australia since arriving from France via the UK. He was at Sandown two weeks ago, sat up on the speed and kept going in the straight for a solid win. He was first-up for a year so the run will do him good, the 2000m looks ideal also.

Dangers:

THOUGHT OF THAT (8) is drawn out in the carpark, it shouldn’t matter as he will roll forward anyway. He was good after sitting parked at the Valley, the key here will be getting the front or getting cover. Lay him in the run if he has to face the breeze again. SKYMAN (7) won his first two starts in Australia, he was fair to the line at Flemington after getting back. He will need the speed on, look for him late if they are running on. DON’T DOUBT DORY (11) looks to have come back well, he won on the heavy at Sandown then placed after a gun run last time. He is honest and this is clearly his toughest test.

Race 4: Testa Rossa Stakes 1200m

ALFA ORO (7) is a real winner, he has won 5 of 7 and his only two losses resulting in second place finishes. He has a stack of speed, drawn beautifully in 4 he should be able to lead and if they leave him alone over the first couple of furlongs, they won’t eb catching him.

Dangers:

BROOKLYN HUSTLE (6) has been good at two runs at the Valley since resuming, she needs to improve on her poor record at the track but will be finishing as good as any. CORUSCATE (4) is resuming, he was good back in the Autumn in Sydney including a heavy track win but struggled at his latest at Listed level. His trials have been good enough and he should be getting an economical run off the inside lane. ORDER OF COMMAND (1) won back-to-back races including the Wangoom at the Bool over the carnival, he has a great record fresh winning three of six. Can he carry the 62kg?

Race 5: Handicap 1400m

WINDSTORM (7) looks one of the better bets on the card, he is still yet to win since coming East but his two runs have been really good. He stormed home here at his first look at the track from a mile back then went to Flemington and was beaten as favourite, again hitting the line hard. Love the map, he looks a good thing.

Dangers:

ADELAIDE ACE (9) is third-up and has won both of his prior third-up runs, his last win was here at the track at G2 level back in the Autumn. I expect him to settle a lot closer than what he did last start. TRAVIMYFRIEND (4) beat the top pick last start, he was huge odds and gets the weight turnaround here though. I expect him to settle closer also today.  BUFFALO RIVER (5) has won five of his last 6 starts, he resumes here in a harder race but will be making his own luck up on the speed.

Race 6: Caulfield Guineas Prelude 3YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

CAMBOURNE (10) goes on top with his undefeated record, he won on debut at Donald after sitting back in the run and surging late. He then went to Bendigo and really accelerated hard to win easily. He has stepped up to the plate on both occasions, this is harder again but I love the way he found another level when he hit the go button.

Dangers:

AMISH BOY (5) was big odds resuming but attacked the line hard back nearer the inside. He gets the tongue tie on, he will get back again and the extra trip, looks suitable. CROSSHAVEN (3) has only been beaten once, his win in the Oxford at Listed level was dominant after sitting up on the speed. Expect him to go forward again. PRAGUE (1) loomed up to win in eth Danehill but may have just peaked on his fitness at the back-end. Hard to see him getting the right run from the draw though?

Race 7: Thousand Guineas Prelude 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

INSTANT CELEBRITY (4) is undefeated after three starts, she was too good at her first two starts before going to the paddock. She resumed at a short quote at home in SA, got back in the run and was held-up slightly before getting into the clear and flashed late to get up in the last stride. It was an enormous return, Willow takes over in what is a huge jockey change.

Dangers:

NIGHT RAID (5) bolted in to win a Tatura maiden by more than 7 lengths (could have been further) then was way too good at Listed level last time at the Valley. She gets out of the gates good and will be very hard to catch if they lead on her. MOZZIE MONSTER (8) is on the quick back-up after an enormous effort when beaten last week. She got back in a race where it was impossible to make ground, the winkers go on and expect her to settle a lot closer. LETZBEGLAM (1) won her first two starts, she was ok in the Blue Diamond but was a little disappointing resuming up the straight. She looks better suited here back around the bend.

Race 8: Underwood Stakes WFA 1800m

I am very keen on MR QUICKIE (6) on an each-way basis here. A little concerning that he has not won a race in 67 weeks, but his return here at the track in the Memsie was outstanding. He was well backed and got back in the run, got to the middle of the track before running on hard, beaten by Bohemoth who has come out and won since and earned an Everest invite. Look for him late if the track is playing fairly.

Dangers:

RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) is going to start the short-priced favourite, he was the spruik horse following his SA Derby win prior to going to the paddock. He resumed in the Makybe Diva and his run was enormous, he has a huge future. Map is a ???? THE CHOSEN ONE (7) charged home to win resuming, if he can get the back of Mr Quickie in the run home he can run a place. ARCADIA QUEEN (9) comes through different formlines, she was brave in defeat from the back in the Let’s Eope at Flemington.

Race 9: Handicap 1700m

JUNIPAL (9) has the wide draw to overcome, the price looks about right though and he should be able to send us home a winner. He ran on hard here at the track resuming then was way too good in an easier race at the Valley last time after sitting handy. Any cover in the run and he will finish too strong, they may just be bullish and roll straight to the breeze early and take luck out of it?

Dangers:

ODEON (7) will go forward but needs luck off the inside when the runs come, he does race well here. Last start at the Valley he was brave in defeat after sitting parked. NONCONFORMIST (8) bolted in to win the Alistair Clarke at the Valley before going to the paddock, he had no luck resuming before rattling home with the best sectionals of the race. How far back will he get back though? SHOT OF IRISH (10) rarely runs a bad race, we can’t count his last run where he reared at the start and gave the jock a “bump”, effectively taking no part. He gets the barrier blanket on, hopefully he jumps cleanly today.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday September 25, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Good 3. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 9 – PERFECT JEWEL

Race 1: ENDANGER (7) from 2, 1 and 4.
Race 2: EXPRESS PASS (5) from 3, 1 and 7.
Race 3: ALFA ORO (4) from 5, 11 and 8.
Race 4: GLENFIDDICH (1) from 2, 5 and 4.
Race 5: SWATS THAT (1) from 2, 3 and 10.
Race 6: AL GALAYEL (5) from 9, 11 and 3.
Race 7: DIAMOND EFFORT (8) from 7, 1 and 9.
Race 8: PERFECT JEWEL (3) from 5, 6 and 2.


Race 1: 3YO Colts and Geldings Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

ENDANGER (7) was a winner on debut at Cranbourne and couldn’t have been more impressive. He was behind the speed before angling three-wide, took over at the furlong pole and ran away to win by almost 4 lengths. He draws well, there are a couple with good speed out wider so he should have the cold sit.

Dangers:

SALTPETER (2) gets the winkers on for the first time with Olly sticking with the ride. He won back-to-back races last campaign, he was only fair resuming when up outside the speed, hopefully the gear change does the trick. EXTRA TIME (1) won his maiden before going to the paddock last prep, he will appreciate dropping back to this class after good effort in black-type races at his last two. He should be up on the speed early on. FREE TO MOVE (4) is also a speedy type that will be looking for the top, he was headed early in the straight when resuming but stuck on well enough.

Race 2: BM84 Handicap 1200m

EXPRESS PASS (5) has the inside draw, he has won back-to-back BM78 races since resuming, both of them when running on hard from the back of the field. He was dominant late last time, he will need a little luck getting away from the inside when the runs

Dangers:

MY PENDANT (3) has had a long run of outs but is a winner here at her only start. She has been racing in tougher grade than this, she worked to the line nicely when clear off traffic late fresh. CHICAGO CUB (1) will find this easier than last start when only beaten 2 lengths in a Listed race, not sure about the drop back to the claiming jock though. REINE HAPPY (7) won a 64 and a 70 on both heavy and good conditions before going to the paddock, he has good tactical speed and will go forward. He is a 9YO though now!

Race 3: BM84 Handicap 955m

Ahhh the first of the 955m races for the night season…. hard to assess the race at this early stage as the likely favorite and winner ALFA ORO (4) is a dual acceptor. If he does start here, he looks to good. He has won 5 of 7, he has good speed and doubt that he will do anything but try and kick through and lead, taking luck out of it. The only way I can see him beat is if he gets crossed at the start.

Dangers:

If he doesn’t run in this, BE MY STAR (5) goes well first-up and is a winner here at the track. HUMAN NATURE (11) resumes, he could not have been more impressive at his only crack at one of these short course sprints, he sat three-wide no cover and was way too good. Watch the betting for him fresh with the tongue-tie on. LESAGE (8) just ran out of condition resuming after sitting parked and looming up to win. Tough race without knowing where the top pick will go.

Race 4: Stutt Stakes 3YO Set Weights 1600m

GLENFIDDICH (1) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, that second victory is not far away. She resumed in the Memsie at WFA, a harder race than this, after doing work she came on her own 3-4 wide into the straight and stuck on well to place. That winner Bohemoth has come out and run a ripper to win and gain an Everest slot, back to set weights shouldn’t be an issue.

Dangers:

HOLYFIELD (2) won in Sydney three weeks ago, they changed the tactics with her and it paid off, electing to lead and he never looked like getting run down. I assume they will adopt the same here? FLYING AWARD (5) never runs a bad race, he charged home resuming at Caulfield to narrowly miss in a three-way go. Look for him late again. CHERRY TORTONI (4) was undefeated at his first prep, he was good through the line at Flemington resuming but doesn’t look as suited here as he will get a mile back.

Race 5: Scarborough Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1200m

SWATS THAT (1) won on debut then was outclassed when thrown in the deep end at G2 level at start two. She was sent to the paddock, resumed at Listed level and after being a left flat footed, ran on hard through the line into second up the straight. This is easier, look for her late.

Dangers:

SEPTEMBER RUN (2) was the winner of that race at Flemington, she produced the best splits if the meeting up the straight and Willow sticks with the ride. She can win again, she has shown she can do it around the bend also. DIRTY THOUGHTS (3) has been going through the grades nicely this time in, she won three in a row before narrowly going down last time here at the track. She races well here at the track, she may have to sit parked in the breeze though. PRETTY ROSA (10) won on debut, she sat up outside the speed and was way too good in the run home. This is harder and she looks to have a lot to learn, but the ability is there.

Race 6: JRA Cup 2040m

Hard to go past AL GALAYEL (5) but I am not keen on the price. He was a winner here at the track over a mile two starts back, he then went to Caulfield and beat a similar field after making a nice run before the turn. He took over before the furlong and was string through the line, he has a great record here which is always a plus.

Dangers:

VIN DE DANCE (9) is an interesting runner, the former Kiwi is now with Simon Wilde. He had one run in Oz, was ok here at the track but looked like he would take plenty from the run. TAVIRUN (11) won the Galilee Final back in April, he had no luck resuming held-up at a vital stage before working home well. The extra distance certainly helps. LEVENDI (3) comes back from WFA racing, he was ok but looks suited back under these conditions. He placed at his only run here at the track.

Race 7: Moir Stakes WFA 1000m

I have been with DIAMOND EFFORT (8) throughout her career, no need to jump off now stepping up in class. She won all four runs last prep and was going through the grades nicely before going for a break. She resumed I the Heath at Caulfield at G3 level, sat just off the speed and got no favours but was still too strong in the run home. She is having her first look here but looks tremendous value from the draw. Each-way all day.

Dangers:

Tough race. PIPPIE (7) is a flying machine, especially fresh. She won the Oakleigh Plate when resuming last prep, she will be giving them something to catch. TREKKING (1) is the Good wood winner, he was well beaten in the Stradbroke before going to the paddock but his run was much better than it reads on paper. He will be flying late if they burn as expected. FABERGINO (9) is the unknown, the WA mare has won 9 of 12 including the Northam Stakes at G3 level last start. She is an amazing 7/7 fresh! Cracking race.

Race 8: Stocks Stakes Mares WFA 1600m

PERFECT JEWEL (3) won the Cockram at Caulfield making her eastern states debut, she was enormous from the back pumping out some impressive sectionals. She ran on well between runners against the boys at WFA in the Makybe Diva, she looks a good thing back against her own sex?? She should be rounding them up and kicking off the bend.

Dangers:

PRINCESS JENNI (5) also comes through the Makybe Diva, she was only fair and looked very one paced. She will get back also, the tactics will be interesting between her and the fave. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (6) comes down from Sydney, she was not beaten far after sitting parked outside the winner resuming on a track that favoured those on the speed. She will certainly have the tactical advantage over her main two rivals here. ARISTIA (2) maps to get a soft run, she probably sits behind the leader.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday September 23, 2020
Wednesday @ Flemington:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 4m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 3 – TOYETIC
Race 1: FINANCE TYCOON (2) from 3, 10 and 7.
Race 2: CELESTINE (3) from 2, 1 and 6.
Race 3: TOYETIC (5) from 9, 11 and 4.
Race 4: PERFECT WORLD (8) from 10, 14 and 9.
Race 5: BEEHUNTER (7) from 11, 14 and 10.
Race 6: LET’S KARAKA DEEL (11) from 12, 10 and 16.
Race 7: GRAND PROMENADE (1) from 12, 11 and 10.
Race 8: TITAN BLINDERS (2) from 8, 11 and 15.


Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Plate 900m

No idea. 10 babies, all of them going around for the first time, they go up the straight which makes it even harder! Watch the betting obviously, especially with FINANCE TYCOON (2) GENERAL BEAU (3) THE GLOBE (10) and UMGAWA (7).

Race 2: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1000m

CELESTINE (3) is undefeated after two starts, the booking of Currie must be noted with McEvoy having more than one runner. She debuted at Murray Bridge, winning from the middle of the pack, she then sat up outside the speed in a harder race and was string through the line to score. Harder again here and not sure the inside will be the best set-up? She certainly looks to have a stack of ability though!

Dangers:

MAHA (2) won her first two starts before going across the border and was well in the market at Listed level. She also gets a claim, watch the betting late for a lead at her fitness levels. PEGGY SELENE (1) is racing well, she has won her last two when up on the speed, I am concerned that she goes from Melham to the claiming apprentice. LA MEXICANA (6) is resuming, she bolted in at her debut run leading all the way at a heavy track Ballarat maiden run. She looks to have plenty of ability, I am wary of speedy types having their first go up the straight.

Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1400m

TOYETIC (5) was not officially fresh last time coming off a maiden win but was 8-weeks between runs. He was well backed at Bendigo and got a mile back, he run on hard to get within a couple of lengths late at what was a great first-effort out of maiden grade. Love the inside draw at 1400m here, look for him late with the blinkers on.

Dangers:

POLAND (9) is still a maiden and gets the blinkers for the first time. There was good money for him last time, I expect him to settle handy here pulling the trigger with the gear change. YOSEMITE (11) won her maiden two back then wasn’t disgraced here up the straight at Listed level. Back in this grade looks suitable, look for her late. THE BRUMBY (4) bolted in at maiden level and has placed at two runs since, he will be giving them a start from the side draw. Happy to be against him at the early price, I expect him to start closer to $5 than his current $3.20.

Race 4: Oaks Trial 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1800m

PERFECT WORLD (8) has placed at her last three runs, she charged home at Bendigo before back-to-back placings at Sandown after settling closer. Drawn out and stepping up in trip, I expect them to push forward with her in what looks a tough race.

Dangers:

SALTO ANGEL (10) was only having her second start when charging home over the mile at Sandown. She gets Olly back on and looks suited out to the 1800m. YATTON (14) comes through the same race as her last time, she did well to stick on and only be beaten 3 lengths after a torrid trip three-wide no cover for the majority. PROUD MARY (9) is an interesting runner jumping form 1300m at start one into this, she kept grinding away and wasn’t beaten far there at Geelong. She may represent good value each-way in a tough race.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1100m

BEEHUNTER (7) has placed at both previous runs here at the track. He is resuming here and will be giving them a start, both of those prior runs here have not been up the straight. He is probably drawn well out wide, look for him late. He was a winner on debut at fresh, there looks to be enough speed on paper for him.

Dangers:

OCULAR (11) looks the obvious danger, he could not have been more impressive at his last start win at Bending. He was beautifully ridden there and didn’t have to go around a horse, although the margin was large, I think he was a little flattered. HASSTOBEGOOD (14) is an interesting runner, now with the Begg stable, the former Kiwi placed in two Listed events across the ditch last season. Watch the betting closely with her first-up for the new barn.  IKNEWSHEWASMINE (10) has failed to win this prep after winning four in a row last time in, she showed improvement at Sandown after being well backed from double figures in.

Race 6: Derby Trial 3YO Colts and Geldings Set weights and Penalties 1800m

LET’S KARAKA DEEL (11) stepped up to the mile at start two at Swan Hill a month ago, he worked early to get outside the speed and after taking over at the top of the straight, was way too good at the very short quote. Up in trip looks suitable but as with so many of these, hard to know how they will handle the longer journey.

Dangers:

REUBER (12) is coming of fa 6-week freshen-up, he place at his last two and has experience here at the track and trip. He is sure to be up on the speed but doubt he can sit parked and win. HIT THE SHOT (10) was a maiden debut winner on the synthetic track, he was a little flat at the Valley last time but that can be expected first go around there second-up. WERTHEIMER (16) won a Cranbourne maiden before also going to MV, he gets the blinkers on and didn’t have much luck there over the concluding stages.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1600m

GRAND PROMENADE (1) goes on top in what looks a very open race. He resumed at the Valley 18 days ago in a harder race, got back in the run and was held-up before the turn when the runs were being made. He went back to the inside and ran on hard to only be beaten a couple of lengths. He will have taken plenty from that run.

Dangers:

MELODEON (12) gets a great jockey change with Lane replacing Maskiell, she showed a lot of improvement at the Valley coming off the heavy track run. She should settle midfield and be charging late. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (11) drops back from the G2 Let’s Elope here 11 days ago, she found them too sharp over the 7 furlongs and looks better suited here at the mile. She was a SA Oaks placegetter last prep, look for her late. O’TAUTO (10) doesn’t win out of turn, he may be a bit sharper here after a one-paced effort last run.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1400m

TITAN BLINDERS (2) never runs a bad race, he has placed at his last five since a first-up win last prep. He had no luck at Pakenham on the synthetic after being forced to sit three-wide no cover, he will be pushing forward from the wide gate. The bet may be to wait and see if he can cross, there will still be double figures in the run if he is first to the rail.

Dangers:

CORDILLA (8) will have admirers, happy to be against her at the current $2.80 quote though. She will be giving them a start and will need everything to go right, she was a good winner here though on Finals day and should be charging late. If they go hard early, she will be winning. SCOTTSH DANCER (11) has only missed a place once in four career starts. That was his only start here at the track but was only beaten under 2 lengths in a Listed race, his latest was a good effort here closing the entire straight. If MERCHANT OF VENICE (15) gets a start as the first emergency, he comes into calculations resuming today.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday September 19, 2020
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 6 – MOZZIE MONSTER

Race 1: CELESTIAL SOL (3) from 4, 8 and 9.
Race 2: RIDDLE ME THAT (3) from 6, 7 and 5.
Race 3: PORTLAND SKY (8) from 9, 10 and 11.
Race 4: OCTANE (6) from 7, 8 and 2.
Race 5: THOUSAND WISHES (13) from 8, 3 and 12.
Race 6: MOZZIE MONSTER (4) from 2, 10 and 6.
Race 7: DR DRILL (3) from 1, 9 and 14.
Race 8: BOHEMOTH (1) from 4, 16 and 11.
Race 9: LYRE (6) from 2, 12 and 8.


Race 1: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1600m

CELESTIAL SOL (3) won his maiden when resuming on the heavy track, his runs have been good enough since including a closing runner-up finish last time after getting back in a harder race. Willow sticks with the ride, it will take a gem from the draw but if anyone can…

Dangers:

ALBARADO (4) gets the blinkers on for the first time, he resumed at Mornington three weeks ago and although he didn’t show the greatest turn-of-foot, I loved the way he kept coming through the line and the jump from 6 furlongs to the mile looks ideal. QUEEN OF ROCKS (8) won her maiden on the synthetic track last start at a very short quote, this is harder, she will get back. WISE COUNSEL (9) is still a maiden, he was really strong through the line last time.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1200m

RIDDLE ME THAT (3) won the Bendigo Guineas before going to the paddock, he was solid through the line resuming over 1200m. He draws out and will need cover, in an open race, he will finish as good as any if he does get the right horse to follow.

Dangers:

ANCESTRY (6) is resuming, he won four races last prep and has good speed. He will go forward and look for the front, if he gets a cheap lead, get on him in the run. LEGIONNAIRE (7) sat up on the speed and out-performed his SP last time, the key will be if he has to sit in the breeze again or not. GROUNDSWELL (5) is an interesting runner, he has shown potential but didn’t live up to it last campaign. They sent him to the paddock for the big chop!

Race 3: Super VOBIS 3YO Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1000m

PORTLAND SKY (8) debuted on the synthetic track three weeks ago, he was very heavily backed into red figures. He sat up outside the speed, was three-deep into the straight and ran away to win easily. It has proven a good form reference with the fourth horse coming out and winning since, he looks well above average.

Dangers:

FOREVER FREE (9) is undefeated after three starts and comes into this fresh. She has a stack of speed and will be looking for the top, watch the betting for support. MUNTASEERA (10) showed a stack of potential during her juvenile year, she produced some big figures against the best of her age group and creates a stack of interest back in this resuming. PEGGY SELENE (11) is going for three in a row, Willow replaces Melham, she maps well to get cover behind the breeze horse.

Race 4: Handicap 1100m

OCTANE (6) is a real winner, he is not officially first-up but has had 6-weeks between runs. He has won three in a row leading into this, he will be giving them a start but storming late. THis is his first go here which is a little concerning, if he gets the right horse to follow, the tempo should be right for him to finish best.

Dangers:

FRONT PAGE (7) won three in a row to end his last campaign, the last of those was a Listed win up the straight. This looks easier, expect him to be right in the firing line early. EXCESS FUNDS (8) is resuming and has been good at the jump-outs, a winner of 2/3 previously when resuming, look for him charging late. CRYSTAL DREAMER (2) has taken better scalps than what he meets here, he isn’t getting any younger but was ok resuming. He has plenty of speed!

Race 5: Mares BM70 Handicap 1400m

THOUSAND WISHES (13) is very consistent, she has had two runs back this time in and placed at both. She has had her chances after having the gin run behind the speed, she may have just been peaking late second-up. She has placed at both runs here, if she gets cover she will be strong late.

Dangers:

SO YOU SWING (8) beat home the top pick last time here at the track, she may have been favoured the way the race was run storming over the top from the back. She will need everything to go right again. FABRIC (3) has the wide draw to overcome, she placed behind the smart How Womantic resuming but does have a poor record second-up. SIERRA SUE (12) won an easier race resuming but the way she did it was most impressive. She ran on from mid-field and was cruising through the line, the map is the issue though.

Race 6: Jim Moloney Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

MOZZIE MONSTER (4) looks the real deal! She was beautifully behind the speed to win on debut, she then stepped up to a 64 against the girls at Bendigo. She got further back in the run before taking over at the furlong and running away to win by almost 4 lengths. This is harder again, she looks up to it.

Dangers:

 AIDENSFIELD (2) won her first two before going to the break, she resumed at the Valley at Listed level and ran on well into second. She gets the winkers on, how far back does she get though?  MELBA STORM (10) will find this harder than her maiden win last start, she had the gun run in transit and was string through the line. Stepping up to the 1400m looks to suit. AGREEABLE (6) comes through the Atlantic Jewel like a few of these, she looks suited back on the bigger track as she will get back.

Race 7: Naturalism Stakes 2000m

Tough race! Go one out in the previous leg in the Quaddie so we can get plenty of these in! DR DRILL (3) was the Scone Cup winner back in May, he was checked and lost ground at a vital stage resuming before running on hard. Love the map and Willow sticks with the ride. MIRAGE DANCER (1) is second-up, he was good enough through the line fresh, his record second-up is fair (6:1-0-3). ORDEROFTHEGARTER (9) has been a little costly for backers since arriving in Australia, he was 2 years + between runs resuming, he has had his chances but that first Oz win isn’t far away. GAME KEEPER (14) was good last start when jumping from 1200m-1700m. He was a winner over 2000m at Flemington last campaign, he will keep grinding in the straight.

Race 8: Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes 1400m

BOHEMOTH (1) resumed at home across the border in the Listed Spring Stakes, he was slowly away but way too good for that lot. He then came here to Caulfield and after a gun run, was strong through the line to win easily again. The map looks favourable, Willow sticks on, anything better than each-way odds just looks a great bet.

Dangers:

CASCADIAN (4) has been hitting the line hard at both runs since resuming, how much start will he be giving here though. He won the Donny prelude last prep, has shown stacks of ability since arriving in Australia. BANQUO (16) comes through the Bobbie Lewis which may not be the right form line, he had every chance in a bunched finish. He maps mid-field and the tactics will be interesting. AGE OF CHIVALRY (11) had a tough run at the Valley but kept giving at the back end, tough draw again as it is hard to sit wide and win over the 7 furlongs here.

Race 9: How Now Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

LYRE (6) goes on top and deserves to be favourite, I wouldn’t be jumping in at the current odds though. She has been very consistent, she resumed and ran a bottler behind the smart Diamond Effort missing by a small margin. Is that her go though, always runs a race but rarely wins? She maps well again.

Dangers:

HUMMA HUMMA (2) won in SA before going to the paddock, she showed a good turn-of-foot resuming but may have just run out of condition late. She will get back and needs to be saved for one run. FELICIA (12) never runs a bad race and has only missed a place once in her career. She led for a long way at the Valley resuming in a harder race, will she be first across to the rail here? Forget that MISSILE MANTRA (8) went around resuming. She was mid-field before getting flattened approaching the straight, she was eased down and basically walked across the line.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday September 16, 2020
Wednesday @ Bendigo:

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 9m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – CAMBOURNE

Race 1: RAAZOU (5) from 8, 1 and 11.
Race 2: FLAG EDITION (7) from 8, 3 and 4.
Race 3: BACCHUS (10) from 6, 3 and 7.
Race 4: RED LIGHT ROXANNE (6) from 8, 11 and 4.
Race 5: CAMBOURNE (5) from 13, 10 and 9.
Race 6: SHOTMAKER (13) from 9, 6 and 7.
Race 7: NAMIBIA (7) from 11, 9 and 14.
Race 8: THE GAUCH (9) from 8, 11 and 13.


Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1100m

RAAZOU (5) debuted on the synthetic track at Pakenham, he opened favourite but was a big drifter in the betting. After settling handy to the speed, he hit a flat spot and was very one-paced, I like the way he ran through the line. He will be better for the run and goes for the first time on the turf.

Dangers:

SENSATIONAL REWARD (8) comes through the same race as the top pick and was also on debut. He was solid in the betting near the top of the market, he looked to have every chance after a soft run. He maps to get the same run behind the leader and the winkers come off. Obviously, a big watch on those having their debut, in particular CLASSY BANNER (1) with Olly booked to ride and VISCACHA (11) for the Sheik and the Godolphin yard.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 2200m

FLAG EDITION (7) goes on top but in a race that I have very little confidence in. She won three ties earlier in the prep, her form of late has only been fair at best but she gets the shades back on and a draw to do no work. She will get back and keep grinding home.

Dangers:

MINOLA (8) won back-to-back races before going to the paddock, she was a little flat second-up and expect her to be sharper for this. She will also get back. BARADE (3) was a dominant winner of an easier race last start. He showed a nice turn-of-foot when asked but doesn’t map as well in this. MASTER SHUHOOD (4) is better than what he showed last start when the first beaten and dropping right out of it. If he gets the back of the right horse he can feature back on a better surface.

Race 3: BM70 Handicap 1500m

BACCHUS (10) will be giving them a start, last time here two weeks ago he was at the mile. He was slowly away and got a mile back before making ground without veer looking the winner. The speed should be genuine, I like the drop back in trip.

Dangers:

HONORABLE MENTION (6) has been very consistent of late, his last five runs have been on the synthetic track. He has fair tactical speed but will be looking for cover. HIGHCLASS HARRY (3) won three in a row before just going down after racing outside the speed last time. This is harder. BLINDER (7) has only been going fairly this time in but can improve with the blinkers back on.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1600m

Tough race! Thankfully it is not a leg of the Quad! RED LIGHT ROXANNE (6) beat home Bacchus last start here, he goes around in the race before this so see how that form line holds up. He was big odds but loved the way he accelerated when he got the split.

Dangers:

All of them? DANCE DATE (8) has won two in a row but steps up in class. If she can bring that synthetic form to the turf she will be hard to run down, she has great tactical speed. FAIRY WAND (11) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, she had excuses resuming when the saddle shifted and the race wasn’t run to suit. LOOK SHARPISH (4) was super winning an easier race at Benalla at her latest after sitting on the speed off the track.

Race 5: Class 1 Handicap 1400m

CAMBOURNE (5) was backed as if there was no settling when making his debut at Donald 12 days ago. The official prices were $5 into a SP of $3 and his backer’s had an easy watch. He sat back mid-field before circling and was way too good in the run home, winning by almost three lengths. He looks well above average.

Dangers:

EMERALD CROWN (13) comes into play if she gets a start in this, she is a dual acceptor. She was a dominant winner at maiden level against the girls on the synthetic track after leading all the way. This is harder. TURIN WARRIOR (10) looks to have come back well, he was also heavily supported to win his maiden resuming and was dominant over the last furlong to win easily. Don’t like the map here though from out there. MONTIA (9) wasn’t beaten far at Listed level last campaign, she was poor resuming on the heavy track but is clearly better than that.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1300m

Thankfully there is an early scratching so I can put in SHOTMAKER (13) on top as the first emergency. He won his maiden when resuming in comfortable fashion, he has placed at his last couple when sitting up outside the speed. I like the fact that he is drawn out here, he will work forward again and if he finds the front, bet again in play.

Dangers:

THE DIFFERENCE (9) is the only horse I could entertain having a saver on, he has won two in a row across the border in SA. He will be giving them a start and will not want the top pick to find the top, his only chance is if the fave sits parked and the speed is on. WENTWOOD (6) and GENNADY (7) next best, but for minor spots only.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1300m

NAMIBIA (7) stormed home to win a BM64 at big odds when resuming, Olly stuck with her when coming here last time and she was well backed. She again got back but didn’t let down like she did previously, a little flat second-up and expect her to improve here.

Dangers:

SPECIAL SNAP (11) showed good speed to lead at Sale at her latest start, she stuck on well after being well backed but did have every chance. If she goes forward again and gets left alone in front, she will be hard to run. THE NATURAL (9) has the wide draw to overcome, she drops a stack in class after contesting a Listed race across the border last time. She has speed and will be carving over from out wide. If PESKIJEN (14) gets a start as the first emergency she will be a threat coming off a maiden win at Sale on debut.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1100m

THE GAUCH (9) should be able to get us home a winner, he resumed and was beaten narrowly at Sale two starts back on the heavy track. He then went to Mornington and after sitting three-wide no cover throughout, took over before the straight and ran away to win by more than 5 lengths! He maps better today, he would only need to repeat that run to brain this lot.

Dangers:

CLIFFS OF BELAURA (8) looks to have come back well, she was very well backed in red figures resuming and didn’t disappoint. She got back, got very wide into the straight and was strong through the line to win narrowly but impressively. JERLE (11) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, it shouldn’t be long, but he does need to show a better turn-of-foot then what he did last start. Watch for any money for PHOENIX GLOBAL (13) if he gets a start.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday September 12, 2020
Saturday @ Flemington:

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 4- TOFANE

Race 1: SCHABAU (4) from 7, 2 and 6.
Race 2: BARTLEY (8) from 10, 1 and 3.
Race 3: SAVATIANO (2) from 5, 11 and 1.
Race 4: TOFANE (1) from 4, 3 and 7.
Race 5: TOFFEE TONGUE (7) from 5, 4 and 3.
Race 6: WINDSTORM (14) from 11, 5 and 8.
Race 7: PERFECT JEWEL (14) from 13, 11 and 4.
Race 8: ANNAVISTO (11) from 1, 2 and 9.
Race 9: PARLOPHONE (6) from 13, 3 and 4.


Race 1: Handicap 2500m

SCHABAU (4) won five in a row last campaign, three of them since coming to Australia. He resumed at Caulfield two weeks ago and over-raced going to the front, he looked cast at the furlong pole but stuck on well for third and wasn’t beaten far in a blanket go. He will be better for the run, the talent is there.

Dangers:

PERSAN (7) has won five times this campaign, he never seems to put in a howler. Last time he beat up on a similar field after a gun ride, he looks to get the perfect run again. LORD BELVEDERE (2) is resuming and may need the run, but he is a winner previously fresh. Hopefully Melham has him close enough and he probably won’t want it to be a dash home. DOUBLE YOU TEE (6) will be giving them a start and needs the speed on up front.

Race 2: Exford Plate 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

BARTLEY (8) brings some different form lines into this, he was fair resuming in Sydney but showed a stack of improvement second-up. At Warwick Farm ten days ago he was very heavily backed, got back and wide and was totally dominant in the run home. He looks suited to the big track here, look for him late.

Dangers:

SO YOU CAN (10) must be respected, he was doing his best work late at the latest win across the border in SA. The booking of Oliver is a big leg-up.  IMMORTAL LOVE (1) has not been beaten in his career, he handled the big class ride well when resuming at start three to win at G3 level. He was slowly away but way too good in the run home, he is a winner here at the track previously as well. CHERRY TORTONI (3) is also undefeated after three starts, two of them here at the track including last start in the Taj Rossi Final which is usually a good form line. He is resuming and will be giving them a start.

Race 3: Let’s Elope Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

SAVATIANO (2) resumed in the PB Lawrence a month ago, she was beautifully ridden behind the speed before hitting the line hard and getting up late. She has a terrific record early in her preps, happy to drop off her after this start. She maps beautifully and always puts in.

Dangers:

MY GOLD BRACELET (5) is a former Kiwi that has only had one start in Oz. She was against the girls in an easier race, she was a real eye-catcher from the back at Caulfield. Olly takes the ride, she will be improved off that run with the new yard. SOUTHBANK (11) is resuming, she has the talent but failed to produce last prep. She showed how good she was placing in a Thousand Guineas, she will be big odds but her best can run a place. ARCADIA QUEEN (1) has not won in a year, the last time she was first past the post was this same weekend in 2019 in Sydney when she bolted in to win the Theo Marks. She looked very flat to me resuming, happy to take her on.

Race 4: Bobbie Lewis Quality 1200m

TOFANE (1) is resuming, she got the better of Pierata in the All Aged Stakes in Sydney last time we saw her. Last time she was up the straight was in a Newmarket, she wasn’t beaten 5 lengths but had no luck and should have finished a lot closer. She will get back and flash late!

Dangers:

THE INEVITABLE (4) is an interesting runner that has returned to his home in Tasmania, he hasn’t won since the Silver Eagle almost a year ago. Although he got close two starts back, he never really showed his best at two starts with the Payne yard. ZOUTORI (3) has a good record fresh, he resumes here, last seen in the Goodwood but has been a long time since we saw him salute. BOLD STAR (7) must be respected, we saw what the stablemate came out and don last week. He ran on hard resuming and has the fitness edge over his main rivals. The blinkers come off also.

Race 5: Handicap 1700m

TOFFEE TONGUE (7) won the SA Oaks before going to the paddock. She resumed at Caulfield and made good ground over the unsuitably shorter trip, she will certainly appreciate the extra trip. She will get back form the wide draw but should get every chance late.

Dangers:

DJANGO FREEMAN (5) is an import that has had two runs in Australia, he placed at both but does seem a little one paced. He resumes and will need a genuine tempo throughout. ARISTIA (4) doesn’t win out of turn and is almost two years between wins, I did like the way he kept coming last time. This is no harder and will keep coming in the straight. AKTAU (3) is resuming and has a good record fresh, he won the Mornington Cup before going to the paddock. He may be the best horse in this race but first-up over this trip against this field.. I’m not sold.

Race 6: The Sofitel 1400m

WINDSTORM (14) looks one of the best bets of the day, there won’t be any flash odds around but it looks a put in, take out job. The WA star was an easing favourite making his eastern states debut, he got a mile back but was the run of the race hitting the line hard and beaten under 2 lengths. He looks to map beautifully, Pikey has hit the ground running since coming across.

Dangers:

BUMPER BLAST (11) won here up the straight resuming then looked a little flat second-up. He is a winner at his only other third-up start and Willow sticks with the ride. I expect him to be sharper here. TSHAHITSI (5) should roll forward and be up on the speed, he is a 9YO now but should represent some value at the big odds. YULONG JANUARY (8) was never on the track last time, he races well here at the track.

Race 7: Makybe Diva Stakes WFA 1600m

PERFECT JEWEL (14) can make it a winning double to start the Quaddie for Pike and WIlliams, she was unwanted when coming east resuming in the G3 Cockram. She got back and got a good cart home before charging over the top. She should get the same run, look for her late.

Dangers:

RUSSIAN CAMELOT (13) is no doubt the best horse going forward, his SA Derby win had to be seen to be believed. First-up at a mile from the wide draw, take him on! DALASAN (11) looks to have come back well and rarely runs a bad race, he will get back also, hopefully he is not the one to cart up Russian Camelot on the turn. FIERCE IMPACT (4) charged home in the Winx Stakes in Sydney resuming, he has trialed well in between and is a winner at his only start here at HQ back in Cup week last year. Cracking race!

Race 8: Danehill Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

ANNAVISTO (11) comes here at career start two, she could not have been more impressive at her debut at Mornington. She was very easy in the betting late after a stack of support when betting opened, sat back in the field and charged over the top to win by 3 lengths. She was very green in the straight and looks to have plenty to learn, but the ability was there for all to see.

Dangers:

PRAGUE (1) took on the best of the best at his 2YO season, he handles all conditions well and has shown plenty at the trials. This is his first go up the straight, expect him to be on the speed for a long way. WISDOM OF WATER (2) is an interesting runner having his first start for the Mick Price yard. He has plenty of speed and was one of the best babies in Qld last season, watch the betting. TYDEUS (9) is undefeated after two starts, he deserves his shot at this after on speed wins at the Bool and Bendigo. He may be drawn out in the good part of the track.

Race 9: Cap D’Antibes Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

Tough finish to the day, play very wide in the last leg of the Quad. PARLOPHONE (6) won two in a row resuming, last start at Caulfield a month ago she was not on her best behaviour, bucking early. She did so well to get so close after what happened after leaving the barriers. YOSEMITE (13) gets her chance after a dominant maiden win at Bendigo resuming, Piek rides, can he do it again in the last and get the punters their Sat night fill? LETZBEGLAM (3) won her first two races and was well in the market in the Blue Diamond before going to the paddock. Watch the betting late for signs of fitness levels. MINHAAJ (4) was undefeated before going to the Slipper last season, she didn’t show up that day but did have a tough run. She has the benefit of a win up the straight here previously.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday September 9, 2020
Wednesday @ Sandown:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 7 – SAPPHIRE CROWN

Race 1: STEEL SKIES (6) from 7, 1 and 4.
Race 2: ANITRA (2) from 8, 4 and 3.
Race 3: AYSAR (1) from 10, 9 and 11.
Race 4: LOFTY HEIGHTS (5) from 6, 2 and 1.
Race 5: VOYAGE DE LUNE (9) from 8, 4 and 6.
Race 6: MONETIZING (8) from 9, 3 and 14.
Race 7: SAPPHIRE CROWN (11) from 6, 1 and 5.
Race 8: ZENDE (12) from 15, 1 and 11.
Race 9: DON’T DOUBT DORY (4) from 5, 3 and 8.

===

Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1600m

STEEL SKIES (6) was only fair on debut on the heavy track, he showed improvement at start two when racing on the speed and on top of the ground. He will go forward again and be hard to run down in what looks a very open race to start.

Dangers:

AND SHE WAS (7) went around at big odds on debut here on the inner track last time, she got a mile back and really hit the line well without ever threatening.  Willow sticks with the ride and getting out to the mile looks to suit. ADVENTURE TRIP (1) has placed at both career starts, both on the synthetic track. The latest was a very good effort after working hard off the track to get outside the leader and sticking on well. OCEANOGRAPHY (4) missed by a whisker on the heavy track last time but probably needs to improve again to win this.

Race 2: 3YO Fillies BM70 Handicap 1600m

ANITRA (2) won her maiden at start three on the synthetic track two starts ago, she was again at Pakenham on that surface last time and hit the line ok without threatening after being held. She gets the blinkers on and maps well, expect her to settle closer.

Dangers:

STARELLE (8) was good on debut but seemed to have every chance last time here on the inner track when resuming. She was an easing favourite that day, she maps well here and expect her to start close to the top of betting again. PERFECT WORLD (4) is still a maiden, she has placed at her last two however, the latest was good after working to get on the speed. CLASSY PINS (3) was a synthetic track maiden winner last start, she was very solid at the top of the betting and won well after being forced to work outside the speed.

Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1300m

AYSAR (1) placed on debut then blitzed his rivals by more than 3 lengths here at the Lakeside before going to the paddock. I like what I have seen at the jump-outs recently, he looks to have come back well. Expect him to be very well backed.

Dangers:

SQUAMI (10) has had 5-weeks between runs, he was well ridden behind the speed and although he took a while to wind up, he was strong through the line. BLOOD SWEAT TEARS (9) led all the way on the heavy track last start, this is harder but if he can bring that speed to the better surface, he will be hard to run down. POLAND (11) placed on debut at Bendigo after racing up outside the speed, a little concerning that he was such big odds that day.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 2400m

LOFTY HEIGHTS (5) produced a huge form turnaround last start here on the lakeside, he showed a lot more speed to lead and surprised many, kicked in the straight and never looked like getting run down, winning by five! Hopefully to adopt the same tactics here.

Dangers:

PATRICIA ANNE (6) has not won in almost 2 years, she also has speed and will be looking for the top. Her chances will rely on getting cover, hopefully they do take the sit and not sit in the breeze. TYSONIC (2) won here on the inner track last time when it was rated a heavy 8, she should have the cold sit. She does have to take on the boys here but gets a good run in transit. BLANDFORD LAD (1) has seen his form drop off at recent starts following back-to-back wins earlier this prep. Look for him late if the speed is on.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1600m

VOYAGE DE LUNE (9) is undefeated after two starts, he won at debut at Echuca then was sent straight to the paddock. He resumed at Geelong, was heavily backed and won impressively after a gun run. He was entitled to win after the gun ride and this is harder, hard to knock the winning form though.

Dangers:

LORD MARKEL (8) won resuming and has been ok at the last couple when running on from the back. He will need everything to go right but should hit the line hard if the speed is on. SAVVY LAD (4) has yet to hit his straps since coming to Australia, but he showed enough in NZ to suggest his first NZ win is not far away. DIRTY DEEDS (6) has been good at two consecutive heavy track starts, he maps well and can handle the class rise.

Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m

Tough race, Quaddie punters should be playing very wide. MONETIZING (8) won two in a row before going to the paddock, she resumed at Mornington and was very easy in the betting but chased hard to narrowly miss. PEGGY SELENE (9) is going for three in a row, she makes her own luck up on the speed and seems to really love racing here on the Hillside. LUNAKORN (3) is flying this prep and was going through the grades nicely until hitting a hurdle last start. She resumes here and should get an economical run. OH PLEASE DIANNA (14) is resuming and gets the blinkers off again, she also gets the right run on the speed map.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1000m

SAPPHIRE CROWN (11) has shown that he has versatility, he led all the way at Sale two starts back and although he was green in the straight, never looked like being run down. Last time here at the track, he got well back in the run and charged home late to narrowly miss in a blanket finish.

Dangers:

SAM’S IMAGE (6) is resuming, the last time we saw him at Caulfield he was very heavily backed and had a torrid run. He doesn’t have a great record fresh but draws to do no work off the inside gate. MISTER MOGUL (1) has been up for a long time but rarely runs a bad race, this is his first go here at Sandown though. He will be up on the speed but will need cover. PROPELLE (5) is a last start winner at Caulfield, it was a beautiful ride, I am not that keen on the jockey change though.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1400m

Another big field and it doesn’t get any easier. ZENDE (12) looks to have come back well, he was heavily backed and placed at Cranbourne when resuming before charging home to win comfortably at the Bool last time. Expect that he will get back again but if the track is playing fairly, will finish as hard as any.

Dangers:

PROPHECIES (15) has a very consistent record for a horse that will be giving a start early, her last start win at Bendigo was very impressive after sitting off the track without cover back in the pack. The tactics will be intriguing if the top pick goes back early as well. DIODE (1) is going for three wins on the bounce, he is very speedy and looks the leader on paper. RICH HIPS (11) over-raced badly last time, if she can settle better back in the field she will finish hard.

Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1800m

DON’T DOUBT DORY (4) has won four of five in his short career, he was well backed into favourite when resuming and didn’t let his backers down. Settling back in the field, he charged home from a spot that looked too far back in the run to get up in the last stride. They stick with the claiming jock, it just looks a matter of getting the run from the tricky inside gate?

Dangers:

APPROACH DISCREET (5) is coming off two victories, both here at the track. He over-raced last time back in the field but still ran on too well, look for him late. LE BAOL (3) is the most interesting runner of the day, he is having his first run for the Lindsay Smith yard since arriving in Australia. Money talks with this stable. LORD BOUZERON (8) is very consistent, he won two in a row before placing at Caulfield last time after setting a solid tempo in front. He will be giving them something to chase and be in it for a long way. If the track is favouring those on the speed, expect him to be well backed through the day.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday September 5, 2020
Saturday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 1- HOW WOMANTIC

Race 1: HOW WOMANTIC (3) from 8, 10 and 2.
Race 2: SOVEREIGN AWARD (6) from 2, 14 and 9.
Race 3: HIT THE SHOT (11) from 7, 8 and 10.
Race 4: SHOT OF IRISH (4) from 6, 7 and 9.
Race 5: SHOWMANSHIP (6) from 3, 9 and 2.
Race 6: BROOKLYN HUSTLE (7) from 8, 9 and 5.
Race 7: AGREEABLE (8) from 9, 4 and 2.
Race 8: HARBOUR VIEWS (8) from 2, 6 and 4.
Race 9: DABIYR (3) from 4, 10 and 12.

===

Race 1: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1200m

HOW WOMANTIC (3) is a star, she won her first four starts before failing at G2 level off a torrid run at Flemington when wide throughout. She was sent to the paddock, the intent is there with the blinkers going on for the first time. She will go forward and be parked off the speed, her class will get her through.

Dangers:

CORDILLA (8) has not missed a place in 5 career starts, three wins included and she is going for the hattrick. She will be giving the fave a start and will need everything to go right. BONS ABROAD (10) won on the bog track last time, this is harder and the firmer track should be no issue. FABRIC (2) is resuming, she was very heavily backed in the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo before going to the paddock. Willow rides, love him with horses that will be on the speed.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1600m

SOVEREIGN AWARD (6) won her first two when resuming, she then went to Caulfield in a harder race than this against the girls. She over-raced up on the speed and was off the track, she kept coming in the straight to miss narrowly. She will be looking for the top early.

Dangers:

SKYMAN (2) is undefeated in two starts since arriving in Australia, he was big odds two back then an easing favourite but still too strong in the run home. He will be giving the top pick a start but will be the one to benefit if he doesn’t get his own way. SHANDY (14) is going for three in a row since resuming, this is harder, her win against the girls last time was with authority. O’TAUTO (9) drops in class, he was well beaten on paper last time but never got a crack at them over the final stages. Forget he went around.

Race 3: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1500m

HIT THE SHOT (11) was on debut at Ballarat on the synthetic three weeks ago, he was solid in the market off a couple of good jump-outs. He settled back in the field, didn’t show the greatest turn-of-foot but knuckled down over the last furlong to get up late. He gets out in trip and just needs to bring that synthetic form to the grass.

Dangers:

SUROOJ (7) resumed at Sandown off a 6-month break, she ran on hard from the back to narrowly miss. The extra distance suits but she will need to be in front of the top pick in the run. BEST EVER (8) is a dual-acceptor, he is also a winner on debut stepping out of maiden grade. She was strong through the line after racing on the speed, expect the same pattern here. DIVINE DIOSA (10) over-raced.

Race 4: Handicap 1600m

SHOT OF IRISH (4) was flying at the back end of last prep, winning three of four and was second at the other. He flies first-up with three wins from five previous fresh runs, you know what you will get with him, he will push forward and give them something to chase.

Dangers:

JUNIPAL (6) resumed at Caulfield off a 40-week break, he got a mile back and stormed to the line beaten just over a length. He will need a little luck getting away from the inside when the runs come, the mile suits. THE KING (7) is an interesting runner for the Lindsay Smith yard, he was only fair at his first Australian start and was sent straight to the paddock. Watch the betting with him resuming. PRINCE ZIGGY (9) has had 5-weeks between runs, he will get back and work home nicely.

Race 5: Chandler McLeod Stakes 1200m

SHOWMANSHIP (6) may start the shortest price favourite of the day. The WA star has won all five runs this time in, he came east for the first time recently and was brilliant winning at Caulfield. The punters got out of trouble that day with a Pikey special in the last, he got back and stormed home down the middle of the track. This is slightly harder but he is a gem this one!

Dangers:

AGE OF CHIVALRY (3) looks the obvious and may be the only concern. A little concerning that he has not won in more than a year, the last time he was at the Valley he was a good thing beaten after being held-up at a vital stage late. He looks to have come back well placing at Caulfield, he will be making his own luck up on the speed. FELICIA (9) has had 10-weeks between runs, she placed at her first look here at the Valley then bolted in at Caulfield racing up outside the speed. MANDELA EFFECT (2) is also first-up, he is a star on the Apple Isle and always race well when he comes across the Bight.

Race 6: Mitty’s McEwen Stakes WFA 1000m

BROOKLYN HUSTLE (7) could not have been more impressive winning here at the track when resuming. It is certainly a step up in class, but she looks to have improved a lot whilst in the paddock. She sat back, scouted wide and exploded to the front to win by almost 4 lengths as she was eased down late. Both her wins have been here, look for that brilliant turn-of-foot again.

Dangers:

HANSEATIC (8) will be well found and no doubt he is a start in the making, happy to take him on though at WFA first-up against the older horses here at his first go at the track. He was brilliant through his juvenile year before failing in the slipper, he will be wining soon but happy to be against at the price. RULERSHIP (9) was held-up for most of the straight before hitting the line well at Caulfield. BELLA VELLA (5) was undefeated in three runs last campaign, this stable must be respected when bringing one here.

Race 7: Atlantic Jewel Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

AGREEABLE (8) was sent to the paddock after a dominant maiden win on debut, she resumed at Caulfield and produced the best last 200m of the race to get within 3 lengths at the finish on a day when coming from the back was difficult. Drawn well, I expect her to settle closer.

Dangers:

NIGHT RAID (9) won by as far as you can kick ya hat in a much easier Terang maiden, she led and set a solid tempo and never looked like getting run down. The official margin was 7.25 lengths, it could have been further. AIDENSFIELD (4) won both starts at her first campaign, she was very good at both but may have to sit parked in this. RIVER NIGHT (2) next best in what looks an open race, and a good form reference going forward.

Race 8: John F Feehan Stakes WFA 1600m

HARBOUR VIEWS (8) goes straight to the mile first-up, I am a big fan of his and certainly think he has it in him. He won at his only start at the track, he then went to Caulfield and pulled up lame, beaten as favourite. His first-up record is good, I am still grinning when I think of his debut win at the Bool!

Dangers:

REGAL POWER (2) is part of the strong Grant and Alana Williams team that has come across. Pikey rides the All-Star Mile winner. He has only been fair at two runs back, he is better than that. SIRRCONI (6) has been up for an eternity but is enjoying racing it seems, he is on the quick back-up from the Heatherlie at Caulfield last week where he narrowly missed as favourite. Very happy to be taking on SURPRISE BABY (4) here at WFA first-up off a Melbourne Cup run, no doubt that is the goal again.

Race 9: Handicap 2040m

DABIYR (3) was first-up at Flemington last start, he got back and ran on hard over an unsuitable mile and got within a couple of lengths at the finish. He was coming off a two-mile Adelaide Cup before going to the paddock, the run will have sharpened him up nicely and he is a perfect 2/2 at the track and 3/3 second-up. Looks very head to beat!

Dangers:

CREEDENCE (4) is 7-weeks between runs, he was never on the track when wining at Flemington in what was a very brave effort. The inside draw may be a hurdle though as he will get back. NAIVASHA (10) was running on well fresh before peaking late and may have just run out of condition. She has a very good record second-up. SKELM (12) maps to get a soft run, he chased steadily when resuming but also has a better record one run into a prep.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday September 2, 2020
Wednesday @ Bendigo:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 4m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – BERMADEZ

Race 1: ROUSSEAU (10) from 8, 1 and 3.
Race 2: KENTUCKY TORNADO (5) from 3, 1 and 2.
Race 3: TYDEUS (6) from 8, 7 and 3.
Race 4: NAMIBIA (11) from 7, 6 and 10.
Race 5: BERMADEZ (2) from 9, 13 and 3.
Race 6: CATEGORY FIVE (2) from 13, 8 and 6.
Race 7: MOZZIE MONSTER (11) from 13, 5 and 12.
Race 8: IMPI (4) from 11, 7 and 15.

===

Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1300m

ROUSSEAU (10) had two starts before going to the paddock, he resumed off a 15-week break in Sydney on a heavy track and was an easing favorite. He over-raced and was forced to work outside the speed, he was the first beaten and never looked likely. He comes back off the heavy track and this looks no harder, love these Waller runners that fail first-up and then we get a price at the next start.

Dangers:

PAL D’ORO (8) placed on debut at Geelong, he got well back in the run before running on hard. He looks like he still has plenty to learn, racing very green in the straight. AIN’TNODEELDUN (1) is yet to run a place in three career runs but hasn’t been beaten far at all of those starts. He resumes with a couple of gear changes, this looks no harder. Look for any money for those on debut, in particular EMBOLISM (3) with O’Brien and Olly combining.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 2400m

KENTUCKY TORNADO (5) should be nearing peak fitness, she was ok at her first two runs back over unsuitably shorter trips before failing badly on the heavy track last time. She never got into the race there at the Valley in what was a similar race to this, expect her to be a big improver back on top of the ground.

Dangers:

PROTECTION MONEY (3) is flying, winning three of his last five and is progressing through the grades nicely. He was well backed late at Sandown last start in a BM70 and stormed home form a mile back to score. Olly sticks with the ride. LIGHT PILLAR (1) has improved at his latest two runs, the import was off the track for the best part of 2 years before coming to Oz and should be fully fit now. He will get back and run on hard if the tempo suits. EUREKA STREET (2) hasn’t shown much this campaign, his best run was two starts back when running on at Sandown on the Hillside track. There looks to be better back-markers but if he can get the back of one of them I the run home, he can run a place.

Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1100m

TYDEUS (6) is a Lindsay Smith trained son of Written Tycoon that debuted at home at the Book a fortnight ago. He started in the red in the betting, led early and after kicking 5 lengths clear in the straight, was eased down late for a most impressive victory. Was it just handling the heavy track better than the others, this is harder but that was mighty impressive.

Dangers:

NORBU (8) is also a last start winner on debut, she beat the girls at Geelong after doing all the work outside the leader. The decisions early will be intriguing, expect her to be up on the pace early, possibly leading? THE BIG EASY (7) won his maiden two starts back then was beaten as favourite last time at his first go out of that grade. He will be the one to benefit if those top two picks go at each other. TOYETIC (3) is resuming after getting his maiden win on the heavy track, he will also get back and may find them too nippy fresh over this trip.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1100m

NAMIBIA (11) looks to have come back well, she wasn’t fancied going around at double figure odds and settled back in the field. Olly was riding as he is today, he eased to the middle of the track in the straight and ran on hard to go clear over the last 100m. It has proven a good form reference with 2 winners coming through that race since. She will get back again, look for her late.

Dangers:

OCULAR (7) is resuming, he has won fresh previously and been good at the jump-outs.  a little concerning that he is likely to get into the back half from the inside draw, if the splits come, he will be finishing as good as any. BORN A WARRIOR (6) is another get back type that will need the speed on, he stormed home here at the track when resuming and probably wins in another 50m. He is still a maiden, if not today, wait for him to get back to that grade. FRESH (10) was thrown in at G3 level resuming and was very one paced, this is a lot easier and I am expecting improvement.

Race 5: Class 1 Handicap 1400m

BERMADEZ (2) looks to have plenty of upside and is the best of the day. He debuted at Geelong a little over 2 weeks ago, was solid in the market at around the flip of the coin odds. He showed speed, led and gave a good kick early in the straight and bolted in by more than 5 lengths. Olly sticks with the ride and the inside draw looks an advantage, bet again in the run if he leads.

Dangers:

EARLY MORNING RISE (9) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, that maiden win was second-up as she is here today. She was easy in the betting when resuming but stuck n well after doing work to get on the speed, doubt she can sit parked here though and win. TYCHE GODDESS (13) is undefeated after winning on debut here at the track 5 weeks ago, she gets the tongue-tie on but just a little wary coming out of that grade with the wide draw and the big SP she had at start one. STRADARI (3) is another undefeated maiden winner last start. He maps to get a soft run but was also big odds at his debut.

Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1600m

CATEGORY FIVE (2) is going for four wins on the bounce and looks a good each-way bet at the double figure odds. He has gone from maiden winner to a BM64 on a heavy track last time, he has shown that he handles all conditions and will be hard to run down again if he lands on the bunny.

Dangers:

HIT THE SHOT (13) won on debut on the synthetic track at Ballarat, he was a little flat-footed but kept coming in the straight to get up late. If he can bring that to the turf he should be featuring at the back-end. BACCHUS (8) goes form Olly to Willow for Waller, he ran on well last time from the back but was the margin was not shortening over the last 50m. Look for him late. FRANKLY HARVEY (6) is very consistent, he should be on the speed early but will need cover.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap 1300m

MOZZIE MONSTER (11) was very heavily backed on debut at Cranbourne, from black odds into red starting around the $1.90 mark with most satchel swingers. She was given a good run in transit, took over at the furlong pole and ran away to win by almost four lengths with a gap to third. If she can bring that to a good track, she will be hard to hold out late.

Dangers:

SCIENTIFIC (13) also won on debut (plenty of them racing today), Olly sticks with the ride first-up, watch the betting for any confidence. Happy to be against her if she goes forward to the breeze, lay her in the run. ZOUPINO (5) will be giving them a start, she has placed at her last two, races well here at the track and gets a good claim. SAFE PASSAGE (12) is drawn horribly out in the carpark, hard to line her up after winning on debut in NZ almost 6 months ago. Watch the betting for a better lead.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1300m

IMPI (4) is one of the more interesting runners of the day. He is resuming off a 42-week break and now calls the Danny O’Brien stables home. He has won all three of his previous fresh runs, he has obviously had some issues with the short spells and long break between runs. His wins have been by 6, 6.25 and 2.5 lengths, the ability is there but is he ready to go? Will they be too slick for him?

Dangers:

CHAILLOT (11) is undefeated after two starts, she is also coming here off a long break of 70 weeks. Willow rides, hard to be confident in the race with these two resuming off long breaks? DO YOU RECKON (7) led throughout to win by more than 4 lengths with another 6 back to third on the heavy track last time, he gets a good claim and if able to control n the speed, may be hard to run down with the fitness edge. If either/both of the emergencies get a start they come into calculations. ZOUSONIC (15) is obviously the first to get a crack.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday August 29, 2020
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Soft 6. Rail: True

Best Bet: Race 1 – TAVIRUN
Race 1: TAVIRUN (4) from 5, 2 and 1.
Race 2: WINDSTORM (1) from 11, 3 and 16.
Race 3: PARADEE (11) from 2, 7 and 14.
Race 4: I AM SUPERMAN (7) from 8, 6 and 1.
Race 5: POLLY GREY (7) from 3, 5 and 1.
Race 6: DIAMOND EFFORT (13) from 2, 5 and 14.
Race 7: TAGALOA (1) from 9, 10 and 2.
Race 8: SIRRCONI (8) from 11, 14 and 2.
Race 9: SAVATIANO (13) from 10, 7 and 1.
Race 10: RUBISAKI (1) from 12, 4 and 5.

===

Race 1: Handicap 2400m

TAVIRUN (4) just loves it here at Caulfield winning three of five here at the track. He was last seen at the Valley where he sat up on the speed, got the better of the leader before being nabbed late in what was a brave effort after doing a stack of work. If they give him the front easily here, they won’t run him down, bet again in the run if he does land on the bunny.

Dangers:

PERSAN (5) is flying this campaign, winning four of his last six. He has been given a 5-week freshen up since his last run, he will go forward and the key will be getting cover. DOUBLE YOU TEE (2) gets the inside draw, I like the way he hit the line last time in a race where it was beneficial to be up on the speed. Look for him late. EXEMPLAR (1) has won back-to-back races at Flemington, he got away with murder in front last time before cruising to an easy win. Don’t think he leads here, there will be some decisions to make early.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1100m

WINDSTORM (1) has only tasted defeat once in his 6-start career, he isn’t officially first-up but has had a 7-week break. He may be a little overlooked in the market at 6/4, he clearly has the credentials but just has that unknown form line coming over from the west. He will be mid-field and running on hard, the jockey choice is a baffler….

Dangers:

EXPRESS PASS (11) looks to have come back well from the paddock, he stormed home at Bendigo in an easier race to get up in the last few strides. He maps well and looks the obvious danger. RIDDLE ME THAT (3) has the horror draw to deal with fresh, he was last seen in the Bendigo Guineas when well backed and was perfectly ridden to score. He has won 2 of 3 fresh and just a real concern where he gets to from the draw. RULERSHIP (16) resumed in the Vain Stakes, he led for a long way when beaten as favourite. He placed second-up at his first prep, look for him to be on the speed for a long way.

Race 3: Mares BM90 Handicap 1400m

PARADEE (11) may want further, the daughter of Epaulette resumes here off a 21-weeek break. She was going through the grades nicely last campaign, from a Bendigo maiden win to a G3 win at the Valley and then not beaten far in the Adrian Knox in Sydney. She did win fresh last campaign, unlike some of the others here that resume and may want further, she has the turn-of-foot required if it is a sit-sprint.

Dangers:

Tough race. LABURNUM (2) showed good tactical speed to lead at Flemington last start, she was run down late but with a big gap to third. Not sure she leads here but certain to be on the speed. MY GOLD BRACELET (7) is an interesting runner having her first Australian start, she has won three of four in NZ and resumes today. She won the Wellington Guineas at G2 level at her latest, will be interesting to see if the money comes for her. AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (14) is resuming and may need the run. She has the class after placing in a SA Oaks last start when near the top of the market, she will like it to be a genuine tempo.

Race 4: Handicap 1400m

I AM SUPERMAN (7) is an interesting runner, I have put him on top but really would need some confidence in the betting. He is an import that showed very little in three runs in Sydney last prep, he was tackling the best of the best though. He has trialed really well and draws perfectly, I just think that he may show his best this time in after having the one campaign in Sydney.

Dangers:

MORRISSY (8) races well here, a three times winner on the track. He led all the way two starts back here then was run down early in the straight last time this is a big class drop though and love it when Willow is steering on-pace runners. NONCONFORMIST (6) went through the grades nicely last prep, he went from maiden winner to G2 victory in the space of 4 starts. He has a good turn-of-foot when saved for one run, just a matter of fitness here first-up. REYKJAVIK (1) was a good heavy track winner earlier this prep, he has been getting to the line ok at his last couple without threatening. He will again need everything to go right, look for him late if the tempo suits.

Race 5: Handicap 2000m

POLLY GREY (7) has been consistent without wining since coming across from NZ. She has had four runs and should be at peak fitness here, her last start at the Valley a month ago was a beauty. She was forced to work early to get up on the speed, she stuck on well off the torrid run after being well backed. She maps beautifully and loses nothing with Willow replacing Lane.

Dangers:

ORDEROFTHEGARTER (3) has only had two starts in Australia, they were nearly two years apart! He resumed at Flemington off that long break 6 weeks ago and after settling mid-field, was very one paced but kept coming late. Olly sticks, he will need it to be genuinely run or others may be too sharp. DABIYR (5) comes through the same race, he ran on hard but was forced to take off a long way from home. He is undefeated in three attempts second-up. YOUNG RASCAL (1) is an import that won at his Australian debut in Sydney, he was then beaten in the Sydney Cup as fave. He comes to a new stable, may find them a bit nippy fresh but should be in for a big campaign.

Race 6: The Heath Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

DIAMOND EFFORT (13) is resuming after taking everything before her last campaign, winning all four starts, two of those wins were here at the track. She continued to step up in grade when asked, she has the wide draw but should be pushing forward early. Is she ready to go, not sure but she will get to double figure odds and am willing to take that on an each-way basis.

Dangers:

Tough race. SUPERSTORM (2) is a West Aussie visitor that was last seen in the All Star Mile. She was back and got wide and hit the line well for second, first-up here over 1100m where will he get to.. He is classy no doubt but may just need further. BOLD STAR (5) is resuming, he was last seen across the border at home in the Goodwood. He was big odds and beaten 4 lengths, he never got into the race and this is certainly easier. Willow on, surely he’s worth a spec at the huge odds? LYRE (14) is also resuming having last raced in the Goodwood, she stormed home to grab third. She will be ridden for luck, if those gaps appear back nearer the inside, she can win.

Race 7: H.D.F McNeil Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

TAGALOA (1) is resuming, he was unplaced in a Blue Diamond Prelude last campaign when fresh before going on to win the big one at his next start. His two runs in Sydney were super, the intention is there fresh with the blinkers going on. He could be anything, his Diamond win was off the charts!

Dangers:

CROSSHAVEN (9) was beautifully ridden at both of his starts to win, he maps to get a similar run here off the gun draw. He should be camped on the leaders and ready to pounce. This is harder but is ready to take the next step. IMMORTAL LOVE (10) is also resuming after winning his first two starts, he crushed them at his latest winning up the straight after sitting on the speed.  Harder here but looks to have come back well from what I have seen at the jump-outs. HARD LANDING (2) sat up outside the speed for a smart win at the Valley resuming, gets a big jockey change here but a lot harder to play that role around Caulfield than the Valley.

Race 8: Heatherlie Handicap 1700m

SIRRCONI (8) has been up for an eternity, in a race that I don’t have a lot of confidence in I know that he will be making his own luck up on the speed.  He was well backed in the PB Lawrence here last time and after sitting parked, kicked past the leader early in the straight only to get run down late. I don’t expect he will be starting any shorter than the $3.80 being offered up at the time of writing so wait until late to back him.

Dangers:

PLEIN CIEL (11) was odds-on when resuming off a 6-week break here at the track a fortnight ago. He sat up on the speed, seemed to just hit a flat spot when they quickened but didn’t shirk the task and stuck on well for second. Olly stays on. GAME KEEPER (14) was closing all the time at Flemington three weeks ago, he won four on the bounce last campaign and looks to have come back well. The map is a little query, drawn in and likely to get back? MIRAGE DANCER (2) hasn’t won in more than a year but usually races well when fresh. He draws well, hopefully they just land better than mid-field and ride for luck.

Race 9: Memsie Stakes WFA 1400m

SAVATIANO (13) loves it early in her preps, she showed that again when resuming with a good win here a fortnight ago. She was put straight in the box seat and kept coming in the straight to get up late, she doesn’t map as well here but with the likely pace early, she only needs cover to reproduce what she showed late here last start. She has never finished worse than runner-up in 7 previous second-up runs, that’s hard to go past.

Dangers:

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (10) was forced to work hard when resuming to find the front here, he was headed early in the straight but I like the way he stuck on late and was only beaten just over a length and a half. He races well here and expect him to push forward again. BOHEMOTH (7) was enormous resuming back home in SA, his second-up stats aren’t as good but he does get Willow replacing Todd Pannell and last campaign second-up was only beaten a couple of lengths in a Goodwood. REGAL POWER (1) was first-up off an All-Star Mile win last start, he only looked to battle out wide on the track but he has shown previously that he sharply improves second-up.

Race 10: W.W. Cockram Stakes Mares Set Weights and penalties 1200m

Hard to go past RUBISAKI (1), the Rubick mare has won six in a row, all last prep. She continued to step up in class each run, culminating in two G3 wins and a G2 Kewney Stakes. It’s an amazing record considering he is a back-marker that needs everything to go right, I think there will be some

Dangers:

BLESS HER (12) has an impressive record also winning her last five. She has gone from a maiden at Sale to start this prep to competing in a G3. She maps to get a soft run just off the speed, this is clearly her toughest test. PERFECT JEWEL (4) is an interesting runner over from the west, she was a 2-time G3 winner in Perth last prep and is a winner twice when fresh previously. She will get back, her best chance may be to get the back of the favourite in the run home. BROADWAYANDFOURTH (5) is also resuming, is a winner here at the track and will also be finishing hard.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday August 26, 2020
Wednesday @ Sandown:

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: Out 6m Entire Circuit

Best Bet: Race 3 – PEGGY SELENE
Race 1: WEST WIND (2) from 6, 7 and 1.
Race 2: SAPPHIRE CROWN (4) from 2, 9 and 5.
Race 3: PEGGY SELENE (4) from 2, 1 and 8.
Race 4: DRONE STRIKE (9) from 1, 11 and 12.
Race 5: LORD MARKEL (2) from 13, 5 and 9.
Race 6: CADRE DU NOIR (4) from 2, 1 and 3.
Race 7: HOWLOWCANYOUGO (5) from 8, 7 and 11.
Race 8: BLINDER (7) from 6, 3 and 9.

===

Race 1: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1500m

WEST WIND (2) won her first three starts before being sent to the paddock, she had no luck resuming and has placed at her last two. She drops back in class after closing hard last time at the Valley. She gets in well with the claim and should be on the speed for a long way.

Dangers:

ELVARIC (6) won an easier race on a heavy track three starts back, she was beaten as favourite last start but chased hard at the back end. OPOHO DREAMING (7) has to take the next step out of maiden grade, she sat up on the speed on the heavy track at the Bool and was too good in the run to the line She will need a little luck off the inside, that could be the place to be on the rail. SUPER GIRL (1) rarely runs a bad race, she doesn’t have a great record resuming but drops a stack in class from a Listed race at Flemington last time. She may need further but she is clearly the class horse.

Race 2: BM70 Handicap 1000m

SAPPHIRE CROWN (4) has won two of three in his career, he was well backed to win last time and led all the way at Sale. He gets the huge jockey change with Ethan Brown being replaced by Willow, the draw looks good and the drop in weight, he should be on the speed for a long way.

Dangers:

THE CRUSHA (2) was beaten by the top pick last time but had no luck at a vital stage. He was held-up early in the straight before cutting back to the rails and running on strongly. He will need the luck again off the inside draw, the form out of the race looks good. KINGSTAR AMBER (9) has been up a long time but is still racing consistently, she will go forward but I doubt that she can sit parked and win. BRAZEN BRANDO (5) gets back on the turf after a fail on paper on the synthetic last time, he was off the track and stuck on well. He won his maiden on a good track, Nolen on a ????

Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1000m

PEGGY SELENE (4) is a last start winner here on the Hillside track, and has only missed a place once in her seven-start career. This is slightly harder but if she can position up similar to that run, no reason she can’t win again. Melham sticks with the ride, bet again in the run if she can find the top. She looks the best of the day.

Dangers:

JERLE (2) is resuming, he won his maiden three starts back before being thrown straight in the deep end at G3 level against the babies. He gets a couple of gear changes, not sure how far back he will get though. MR CASHMAN (1) won on debut at the Valley then was poor at Listed level up the straight and sent straight to the paddock. He has had the big chop and been gelded for his return, look for any money for him. CUT IT OUT (8) comes through the same race as the top pick last time, beaten just over a length She has speed and will go forward again, she just needs to relax better than she did here a fortnight ago.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap 1300m

DRONE STRIKE (9) beat the girls as a 2YO to win her maiden in February, she paced at her first go out of that grade before going to the paddock. She resumed in the G3 Quezette Stakes and never got into the race. She is second-up with the blinkers off, her only other second-up run was that maiden win. I expect her to improve a stack and settle a lot closer.

Dangers:

MODEAR (1) had no luck when resuming at Caulfield, she was held-up at a vital stage and didn’t get much room late. She will get back again, with even luck and a fair track she should finish hard. BUONA SERA (11) was a winner on debut at Geelong then led for a long way before getting nutted in the last few strides here on the inner track at start two. Three weeks between runs, if she can land on the bunny again, she will be hard to run down. LUISELLI (12) looks to have come back well, she won on the synthetic at maiden grade last start but does have to step up in class.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1600m

LORD MARKEL (2) was a winner resuming here two starts back, he went to HQ last start and had plenty of excuses. He settled back in the field and raced tight early in the straight, was running on well again late before getting hampered again at the furlong. I like the kid going on and a minor gear change, look for him late.

Dangers:

WAIRERE FALLS (13) is another that is likely to get back and run on, he doesn’t have a dashing turn-of-foot but will keep coming. He will need to be in front of the top pick in the run home or he may get left behind. JUST JAKE (5) has taken the step up in class well at his last few starts, he showed more speed winning at Bendigo last time. He should race up on the speed from the good draw and will have the tactical advantage over his main rivals. BACCHUS (9) should be nearing peak fitness after showing improvement last start. This looks no harder.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 2400m

CADRE DU NOIR (4) is a former UK trained horse that has had two runs since arriving in Australia. He was on the heavy track at the Valley in his Oz debut after having 40 weeks off, found a flat spot over the shorter trip but rallied well late to place. He then went to Flemington and raced on the speed, again was a little flat-footed but batted on gamely to go down narrowly. Out in trip, fully fit, if he lands on eth bunny, who is going to run him down?

Dangers:

METEOR LIGHT (2) has a poor overall record here at the track, he did win on the Lakeside though going back to early July. He is likely to be up on the speed but doubt that he can face the breeze and win, he will need cover. LIGHT PILLAR (1) is still looking for his first win on Australian soil, he had almost two years off before arriving here and has shown improvement at his last couple. CRIMSON ACE (3) ran on well without threatening at Flemington last start, she won two in a row earlier this prep and should be hitting the line hard.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 1400m

HOWLOWCANYOUGO (5) sat up on the speed at Sale to win two starts back in what has been a good form reference, the margin wasn’t huge but it was with authority. Last time out he went to Bendigo and back on a heavy track, he didn’t look to have as much spark, still placed but looks better suited with an improving track.

Dangers:

LEFT HAND MAN (8) is a SA visitor that won across the border before not having much luck at a vital stage at Caulfield last time. He gets a good claim but will be giving them a start. CHUCK A LUCK (7) may need further but has placed at both previous fresh runs, he wasn’t beaten far behind the impressive Kinane in Sydney at his latest. Look for him late. VEGAS KNIGHT (11) is another that will get back and need the right tempo up front, he hasn’t won in more than a year but has been hitting the line well lately.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1800m

BLINDER (7) doesn’t win out of turn but looks a good each-way bet at the current odds and expect that you may get better as we get closer to jump time. He started favorite here last time in a race a few of these came through. He was beaten 3 lengths but chased hard late, look for him once again to be doing best over the last furlong.

Dangers:

APPROACH DISCREET (6) was having his first look at the track here two weeks ago, he was very well backed starting a 6/4 favourite. He got back and ran on hard to score easily, going away on the ine. This is no harder, Olly stays in the saddle but he does have to carry the extra weight. REFORMIST (3) returned to the winners list last time at Bendigo, it was a good effort after he was held-up at a vital stage before storming to the line late. He draws well again and Allen sticks with the ride. RECKONING (9) charged home to narrowly miss here on the Hillside a fortnight ago, he has been up for a while but showed he still is racing well. Look for him late.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday August 22
Saturday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 8 – BROOKLYN HUSTLE
Race 1: COMING AROUND from 1, 2 and 3.
Race 2: TAILLEUR (4) from 8, 2 and 1.
Race 3: JENNI’S RAINBOW (11) from 5, 7 and 3.
Race 4: KENTUCKY TORNADO (8) from 5, 1 and 4.
Race 5: SAVVY LAD (11) from 3, 1 and 13.
Race 6: ALBARDO (6) from 4, 1 and 9.
Race 7: WINDSTORM (7) from 8, 6 and 3.
Race 8: BROOKLYN HUSTLE (10) from 1, 5 and 3.
Race 9: SCHABAU (9) from 5, 12 and 3.

===

Race 1: Handicap 1500m

COMING AROUND (4) came over from Perth after winning three straight, he was runner-up in the Mildura Cup before a dominant win at Flemington last time. He looks suited by the track and should be coming with a sweeping run. This is a step-up in class but he meets this lot with the fitness advantage.

Dangers:

WIDGEE TURF (1) is one of mine, he looked a little one-paced when up the straight resuming but is certainly better suited back here at the Valley. He will be giving them a start, look for him late if he gets the back of the right horse. MIAMI BOUND (2) won two in a row in the Spring last year, her two runs last prep were only fair in black type races, she has won fresh and this is easier. ODEON (3) is my lay of the day, throw him in the exotics but I can’t see him winning around the Valley fresh over 1500m. He gets the right run but don’t think he can be the one to come three wide first.

Race 2: Mares BM84 Handicap 1200m

TAILLEUR (4) will be the second short-priced favourite to start the day winning for followers, she has only been beaten once in her four starts, second-up at Randwick after sitting off the track. Last time she led and couldn’t have been more impressive, she handles the wet, the only issue for me is Zahra going ono. Please Mark, go forward and make your own luck.

Dangers:

SWORD OF MERCY (8) is racing very consistently and has the fitness edge, she is likely to be giving them a start but will finish hard. She has been going through the grades nicely and this looks her toughest test. HOW WOMANTIC (2) won her first four races, and importantly is a winner here at the track previously. Her last run was her only defeat but she certainly wasn’t disgraced off a wide run, blinkers of, happy to be against her though until we see how she has come back. SANTA CATARINA (1) is a former Kiwi that has had one run here this time in, she showed a good turn-of-foot but may have just run out of condition late. Saved for one run, she looks a good place chance.

Race 3: 3YO Fillies Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

JENNI’S RAINBOW (11) could not have been more impressive at her debut on the synthetic track at Pakenham. She was very well backed to start favourite, got well back in the run before being held-up early in the straight. She got to the middle of the track and stormed home, the further they went, the further she was winning by. She looks to be well above average.

Dangers:

MONTIA (5) is first-up, she won here on debut then wasn’t beaten far after sitting outside the leader at Listed level at start two. She gets the nose roll on, she may just need a little luck, mapping behind the leader. CLEAN MACHINE (7) is still a maiden, she was resuming here at the Valley three weeks ago and had no luck when close-up in a bunched finish. She has good speed, expect her to go forward. DIRTY THOUGHTS (3) has won back-to-back races since resuming, she settled closer on the speed last time at Sandown, but I suggest she will get back today.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 2500m

KENTUCKY TORNADO (8) finished mid-field at Flemington two weeks ago, her run was a lot better than what it reads on paper. She was back in the pack and held-up early in the straight when the runs were coming, she only got balanced up and clear over the last furlong and was super through the line. Love the jockey change with Willow replacing John Allen, especially here at the Valley.

Dangers:

HIGH EMOCEAN (5) has won three in a row, she was brilliant at Caulfield last time and has had a month between runs. She is likely to need some luck when the runs come, the inside draw will see her get shuffled back along the rails early. TIGRE ROYALE (1) is flying winning his last four races, he makes his own luck up on the speed. He is having his first go at the Valley, maps to get a soft run in the box seat. No reason he can’t make it five? CRIMSON ACE (4) won two in a row earlier in the prep, a back-marker that handles all conditions, she will be flashing late.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1600m

SAVVY LAD (11) comes through the same race as a few of these at Flemington, I loved the way he hit the line their last time back along the inside. He was good after being checked when fresh, expect him to be getting to the outside here and finishing best.

Dangers:

GLOBAL GIFT (3) will be looking for the front, he bolted in on the heavy track at Bendigo last time in an easier race than this. He has the wide draw and first go here at the track, the better option may be to lay him in the run if he has to sit in the breeze. THOUGHT OF THAT (1) has been out of the winners’ stall for the best part of a year, he was good fresh before a poor run second-up. He will go forward; his chances rely on if he can get to the rail first and lead. If ANTAGONISER (13) gets a start as the first emergency, he must be thrown into all exotics.

Race 6: McKenzie Stakes 3YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

ALBARDO (6) was a winner on debut then went to Flemington and although beaten on his merits, the winner looks quite smart. He has only had two months away from the track and looks to have come back well at the un-official trials. He looks to sit mid-field and will finish as good as any.

Dangers:

FLYING AWARD (4) was a winner at Listed level before going for a spell, Olly sticks with the ride and although he will be giving them a start, he was good at the recent jump-outs. HARD LANDING (1) won the Maribyrnong Plate on debut, he was having his first look at the track resuming and did it the tough way to score after sitting in the breeze. He may have to fill that role again. ZIPPING BOY (9) won on debut at Pakenham on the synthetic, he led and was strong through the line, but this is a different class.

Race 7: BM90 Handicap 1200m

WINDSTORM (7) comes over from WA with a terrific overall record, he has only tasted defeat once in his six starts. Of course, Pikey takes the ride, he was brilliant winning the last race a week ago. This Redoute’s Choice gelding will need a peach of a ride form the awkward gate, I expect him to be a big drifter in the betting so wait until late to get the best price.

Dangers:

LA TIGERESA (8) will be giving them a start but there does look to be sufficient speed on paper for her to get over the top. She has had seven weeks between runs, the last time she was here at the track she had no luck and the margin was unfair. BANQUO (6) is resuming with the blinkers off, he led for a long way in a star-studded Newmarket when last seen. He has placed at two of three when resuming previously, am very keen to see what Olly does early from the wide gate. DEXELATION (3) was having his first look at the track when winning here three weeks ago, a little concerning was the huge SP and this is harder.

Race 8: Carlyon Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1000m

BROOKLYN HUSTLE (10) was brilliant winning here at the Valley last time, she was very well backed in an easier race and didn’t disappoint those that backed her. She settled well back, saved ground closer to the inside on the turn before exploding clear over the last furlong to win going away. The speed looks genuine, expect her to be doing the same here.

Dangers:

How could we leave JUNGLE EDGE (1) out with the likelihood of a wet track come Saturday! He has a horrible record here but with the forecast not looking great, he has to be included. His win in the John Monash was good and you know he will be making his own luck. BONS AWAY (5) is probably going to be giving them a start here fresh for the Kelly yard, he can finish very hard when everything goes right. ASHLOR (3) will be huge odds but isn’t without an each-way hope. The concussion plates come off and will be up on the speed, he is a four-time winner here at the Valley.

Race 9: Handicap 2040m

Those playing the Quad should be very wide in the last leg. SCHABAU (9) can make it back to back wins in the Saturday get-out stakes for Pikey, he won his first three starts in Australia last campaign and looked a real star in the making in the staying ranks. He looked very flat after a soft run when resuming, happy to forgive that and expect improvement with that run under his belt.

Dangers:

All of them? DABIYR (5) looked good resuming and is a perfect 3/3 when second-up. You know he will get the trip, he was tried right out to the 2 miles in the Adelaide Cup before going to the paddock. SKYMAN (12) has won two in a row, a back marker that will be giving them a start and needs the right tempo. He will be tracking three-wide around the bend, can he stay undefeated since arriving in Oz? ORDEROFTHEGARTER (3) looks to have come back well at Flemington, he was left a little flat-footed when the sprint went on last time but was good late. That was almost 2 years between runs, I don’t think he is suited here at the Valley.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday August 19
Wednesday @ Sandown

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 2m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – LUNAR FLARE
Race 1: STARELLE (12) from 5, 2 and 4.
Race 2: TYCHE GODDESS (7) from 8, 5 and 2.
Race 3: SHOTMAKER (1) from 8, 2 and 9.
Race 4: LUNAR FLARE (2) from 1, 6 and 4.
Race 5: CRACKSMAN (2) from 7, 1 and 8.
Race 6: VITANI (11) from 12, 7 and 5.
Race 7: BACCHUS (10) from 5, 1 and 7.
Race 8: WILMOT PASS (11) from 10, 9 and 2.

===

Race 1: 3YO Fillies Maiden Plate 1400m

STARELLE (12) looks suited getting out in trip at start two, she debuted here 3 months ago and after hitting a flat spot on the turn, picked up well to run through the line as good as any. She has been good at the jump-outs, the O’Brien/Olly combo is one that will always have support. Expect a very positive ride from the good gate.

Dangers:

DIVINE DIOSA (5) looks to have come back well placing at both runs this time in. She handled the wet track well at her latest, after being held-up slightly at a vital stage, she chased hard through the line. Expect her to settle mid-field at worse today. AWKWARD (2) has placed at all four starts, she was very easy in the betting at her latest making good ground late. She looks suited getting out to the 7 furlongs for the first time, assuming the track is playing fair, she will finish as good as any. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular CLARENCE RIVER (4) from the Hayes/Dabernig yard.

Race 2: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1400m

TYCHE GODDESS (7) has to step out of maiden grade after winning on debut, she was very impressive after being forced to work. She sat up on the speed, took over in the straight and although the margin was small, it was a gap job to third. Stockdale to Olly is a positive, she will roll forward again.

Dangers:

FUTURE FORCE (8) can also take the next step out of maiden grade after a dominant win on the synthetic three weeks ago. She showed great tactical speed before taking a sit, she never looked like getting beat after a gem of a ride. THE BIG EASY (5) is a last start maiden winner as well, he had a soft run and maps to do no work again here. MACCABEE (2) won on debut then was thrown in at G2 level in the late summer before going to the paddock. He was very good through the line here when resuming three weeks ago, up in trip looks suitable and is a must include in all bet types in an open race.

Race 3: Class 1 Handicap 1300m

SHOTMAKER (1) was very short in the betting when resuming at Wodonga, he was having his first start in 44 weeks and was deep in the red. After getting the gun run behind the speed, he ambled up three-wide before putting them away at the furlong. HE maps well again, gets the good claim and should be in a stalking position.

Dangers:

EARLY MORNING RISE (8) is resuming, she has placed at two of her three previous first-up runs.  Willow goes back on after riding her back in the Summer, I expect she will be giving them a start. INSPIRED SUN (2) is another that will get back, last start at Geelong he was held-up early in the straight before making good ground late, he was a real eye-catcher. NAMIMO (9) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, that win was here at the track. She was good through the line fresh, that maiden win was also second-up as she is today.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2100m

LUNAR FLARE (2) won back-to-back races in this grade earlier this prep, bot h of them running on from worse than mid-field. Last start at Cranbourne she was well backed again to start just in black figures, ran on hard again in the straight but layed in badly, costing it the three-peat. A couple of gear changes, a similar run race and she should be winning again.

Dangers:

CLEMENTINA (1) had been racing well before going to the paddock, she looked good resuming hitting the line well and is suited getting out in trip. If not today, look for her in a similar race third-up. COLLECTABLE (6) will need everything to go right, her best chances look to be if she can get the back of the top pick when the runs come. Not sure that she will still be good enough but that looks the best plan. PATRICIA ANNE (4) was five weeks between runs last time, she hit the line well and is another that will be stalking the fave from back in the field in the run.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 2400m

CRACKSMAN (2) goes on top but I am not overly keen to take the $3 that is being offered at the time of writing. He has been very costly for punters, beaten as favourite at his last four starts since winning in SA back in late June. Interestingly he gets his fifth different jockey in as many runs, he maps to get a soft run again but really needs to win again soon.

Dangers:

WRISTBAND (7) was a maiden winner at Sale two back, his first go out of that grade was poor from the back. He gets the blinkers back on so the intent is there, look for him late. SKYT (1) comes through the same race as Patricia Anne who goes around in the previous, he was a Listed winner last prep and could just be starting to run into form again. ZEE REBEL (8) was well ridden to win at maiden grade last time, not sure he maps as well here from the horror draw. He does handle the heavy track so more rain won’t hurt.

Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap 1500m

VITANI (11) lost her momentum here last start a fortnight ago when she was hampered early in the straight, she balanced up and was good enough through the final furlong.  She doesn’t win out of turn but maps a lot better than some of the more fancied rivals, she can settle closer today.

Dangers:

REFRESHED (12) draws the carpark, she will roll forward and although she may have to sit parked, it doesn’t look the worst map for her. She has placed at her last couple, Kah replaces Olly. CARRIE (7) won her maiden resuming at Pakenham, her first go out of that grade was good, she ran on hard to just miss. She resumes today, that maiden win last time was when resuming. SUBLIME MISS (5) gets the blinkers off for the first time, she is first-up and may need the run but was racing well with back-to-back wins before going to the paddock.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1400m

BACCHUS (10) was racing best at the back-end of last campaign after getting a few runs in. He has had three runs this campaign, improving at each, loved the way he ran through the line at his latest. Back in trip and a fortnight between runs, look for him late.

Dangers:

STARDAYZ (5) beat the girls in an easier race last start, she led all the way and despite laying-in, never really looked like getting run down. See how the track is playing early in the day, expect her to be well backed if it is favouring those on the speed. DON’T DOUBT DORY (1) is three for four in his career, a last start Stony Creek Cup winner before going to the paddock. He looks to have plenty of upside, will he just find them too sharp over the 7 furlongs first-up? IMPERIAL LAD (7) was well backed to win last time, despite over-racing he was too good running on hard from mid-field.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1200m

WILMOT PASS (11) won up the straight two starts ago, he was well fancied at the top of the market last time in a harder race at the Valley. He was slowly away before hunting up the rails to get behind the leader. He was held-up early in the straight and was good when finally out, have to forgive that run. He will go forward, no doubt Kah will out him into the race early on.

Dangers:

SEBREKATE (10) hasn’t won in more than a year, but it is that kind of race. Forget he went around when resuming last start at the Valley, he was checked and tightened on a couple of occasions, he never really recovered. He has won second-up previously, will need a peach of a ride though from Nolen from out there. SCOTTISH ROGUE (9) will find this easier than his last couple, he ran through the line well last time and will be giving them a start again. He gets a positive jockey change with Olly taking over from Teo Nugent. SIR KALAHAD (2) bolted in to win on the heavy two starts back, he was well beaten last time at the Valley in a harder race but did have excuses after pulling up lame.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Saturday August 15
Saturday @ Caulfield: 

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 9m Entire Circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – HYDRO STAR
Race 1: SOVEREIGN AWARD (1) from 2, 6 and 5.
Race 2: PROPELLE (8) from 4, 1 and 6.
Race 3: CHASSIS (7) from 4, 3 and 1.
Race 4: PLEIN CIEL (2)  from 8, 9 and 4.
Race 5: HYDRO STAR (6) from 3, 5 and 8.
Race 6: PARLOPHONE (3) from 12, 7 and 2.
Race 7: BUMPER BLAST (8) from 2, 6 and 1.
Race 8: SAVATIANO (10) from 3, 1 and 8.
Race 9: SHOWMANSHIP (4) from 3, 14 and 8.

===

Race 1: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1700m

SOVEREIGN AWARD (1) is around flip-of-the-coin odds at the time of writing, she has been good winning both starts since resuming. She was well ridden when weaving between runners fresh then kicked through to eventually lead and not get headed at her latest. Olly sticks with the ride, she should be on the pace for a long way.

Dangers:

MOSCOW RED (2) was beaten by 2 lengths behind the top pick last start, she hit the line well and expect her to settle closer here. MRS O’MALLEY (6) comes through similar form lines, she has been up for a long time but is still racing well. She will need everything to go right as she will get back. RUBY SKYE (5) loomed up to win last start but just looked to peak late, this is no harder but I am aware of the SP profile, she has been going around at huge odds.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1000m

PROPELLE (8) hasn’t won in more than a year but I like the way she showed improvement at her last couple. She produced some of the best sectionals of the meeting two back here at Caulfield, last time she was well beaten into second but found the line well. Back on the bigger track looks to suit and she usually races well here.

Dangers:

A GOOD YARN (4) showed a stack of speed to lead all the way at Geelong, last time at the Valley she landed on the bunny again and was no match for the winner, he wasn’t beaten far behind the top pick. MISTER MOGUL (1) was good up the straight two starts back, he has been up for an eternity but spacing his runs with a month or so between them.  He should get an economical run off the inside draw. THE CLOSER (6) is resuming, she will find them a little too slick early but should be working home nicely late. Watch what she does through the line for further into the prep.

Race 3: Mares Handicap 1100m

CHASSIS (7) looks to have come back well and is at home in the wet conditions. She charged home to just miss fresh then again got back and was the run of the race to get over the top of them late last time. She races well here, there looks enough speed on paper, look for her late again.

Dangers:

SHE’S A THIEF (4) is racing well winning two of her last three, including an all the way win here at the track last time. She is drawn to find the front again, if she gets a cheap sectional through the middle, they won’t be running her down. ACTING (3) was only racing fairly before going to the paddock, this is a drop in class. The booking of Olly should be noted, expect that she will get back and run on hard. EMBRACE ME (1) has been a long time between wins, she does drop a stack in class off her runs at the back end of last campaign. She draws to get a soft run, ridden for luck, she can run into a place.

Race 4: Handicap 1600m

PLEIN CIEL (2) rarely runs a bad race in what looks an open affair. He won at the Valley before a fair effort in what is always a strong Winter Champs Final. Huge jockey change with Olly taking over, he returns to his favourite track winning 4 of 6 here. He maps well, should have the cold sit on the leaders.

Dangers:

THINK WE’RE DUE (8) will have to improve on his poor record here at the track, he was ok over an unsuitably shorter trip resuming. He was racing well last prep when up on the speed, expect Melham to ride him more positive here. FIRSTCLASS DREAMER (9) has won back-to-back races, he may need a little luck off the inside when the runs come as he will get back. He gets in well with the claim and can handle the class rise. EXASPERATE (4) won three of his last four before going to the paddock. He has the ability to make long runs and be strong through the line, just a matter of whether he is ready to go fresh.

Race 5: Vain Stakes Colts Geldings and Entires Set Weights and Penalties. 1100m

HYDRO STAR (6) looks a star in the making, he e debuted against the babies at Sandown three weeks ago. He was solid in the market starting favourite off some good jump-outs, after settling last he was bumped off balance when making a run, loved the way he let down in the straight for a dominant win. He can take the next step and should settle closer with a better getaway.

Dangers:

RULERSHIP (3) has trialed well for his return, he wasn’t beaten far in a Blue Diamond Prelude behind the star juvenile of the time. He didn’t show much on the heavy track in Sydney, he may want an improving surface. RANTING (5) is still a maiden, he ran on well on debut then went to SA for the Breeder’s and showed more tactical speed. Tongue Tie goes on, he needs to settle better and doubt he can face the breeze and win. THE CRUISER (8) ran on well with the best last furlong of the meeting on debut, this is a big step up in class though.

Race 6: Quezette Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

PARLOPHONE (3) won impressively to break her maiden status at Sandown, she then went across the border into SA and was backed as if unbeatable to start favourite at Listed level. She was awkwardly away before settling mid-field. She angled clear and charged late, she could be a star.

Dangers:

AGREEABLE (12) bolted in on debut at Geelong, charging home from the back and was sent straight to the paddock. She looks above average, can she bring that to this level? FRESH (7) also resumes, she gets the earmuffs on and will be up on the speed. She is a must include in all bet types, especially if the track is favouring those on speed early.  RIVER NIGHT (2) next best, she gets a gun run from the draw and will also go forward.

Race 7: Regal Roller Stakes 1200m

BUMPER BLAST (8) has to step up in class, I love the way he came back at Flemington up the straight. He was slowly away, settled back in the field before balancing up and storming home out wide to win. Willow sticks, he won his only other second-up start and with the right horse to follow ono the turn, should finish as good as any.

Dangers:

VIRIDINE (2) won the Bletchingly last start here at the track, not a big fan of the Olly to Zahra jockey change. He maps well again, a little concerned that he may get boxed in when the runs come. He certainly can win, I want to be against him though at the $3, AGE OF CHIVALRY (6) is resuming, he may need the run but draws to get a soft run behind the leader. He has won fresh before, he also looks another that will drift in the betting, so if you want to be on, wait until late. JUNGLE EDGE (1) is an old marvel, we know what we will get with him. He will go forward but unless the rain comes, he looks up against it. All 19 career wins have come on rain-affected going.

Race 8: PB Lawrence Stakes WFA 1400m

SAVATIANO (10) flies fresh with 4 wins from 7 previous resuming runs. She was a G2 winner in Sydney last prep when resuming over 1300m, she didn’t win again that campaign but ran some nice races. She was last seen in Adelaide, 15 weeks between runs and has trialed well on the heavy track in Sydney.

Dangers:

STREETS OF AVALON (3) was well backed when resuming here three weeks ago, he settled up on the speed and kept coming in the straight to be beaten under a length. He maps well again and will improve off that run. REGAL POWER (1) is the last start All-Star Mile winner, he may still want further and doesn’t have a great record fresh. He will be hitting the line hard, he has the class to run into a place. MYSTIC JOURNEY (8) will have admirers, happy to be right against her resuming here. Her last win was one year ago I this race in what was hardly a classic PB Lawrence, she has trialed well enough in Tasmania but I expect her to be a huge drifter in the betting.

Race 9: BM84 Handicap 1400m

SHOWMANSHIP (4) could start the shortest priced favourite of the day, those that are playing the Quad may want to take him one-out? He has won four in a row this campaign in the west, he doesn’t do it from the front so there may be some that want to take him on. Pikey gets the ride on his journey east, this will be his first winner.

Dangers:

ADELAIDE ACE (3) is first-up, he will be trying to lead form the wide gate. He was a G2 winner here at the track last campaign, he looks tremendous value for the place. WILMOT PASS (14) was a winner up the straight two starts back, forget he went around at the Valley last time as he was held-up for much of the straight.  EL QUESTRO (8) beat the girls on the bigger track at Flemington last time, she will go forward and Dunn may be best suited taking the sit form the good draw.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday August 12
Wednesday @ Sandown: 

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 2m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 5 – RICH HIPS
Race 1: ROYAL EXIT (2) from 1, 6 and 4.
Race 2: SHAM I AM (2) from 6, 4 and 5.
Race 3: CRACKSMAN (5) from 4, 2 and 3.
Race 4: MAGNOLIA MAN (8) from 10, 16 and 3.
Race 5: RICH HIPS (5) from 3, 7 and 4.
Race 6: IMPERIAL DAWN (12) from 11, 1 and 2.
Race 7: OCEAN MISS (3) from 8, 5 and 4.
Race 8: EXQUISITE BEAUTY (3) from 4, 7 and 12.

===

Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1000m

ROYAL EXIT (2) is a son of Vancouver for the Beetroot Williams camp, he debuted at home at the Bool a couple of weeks ago and was a well backed favourite. He showed good speed to lead, kicked into the straight and never looked like getting run down. The key will be if he can find the front again, he does look above average.

Dangers:

DIESEL ‘N’ DUST (1) got the maiden win out of the way in style at Wodonga, his first go out of that grade was good at the Valley the last time after a gun ride. Olly sticks, he may have to sit parked though. PEGGY SELENE (6) gets the ear muffs off, her and WIDE AWAKE (4) come through the same race last time. Peggy Selene will try and lead all the way, Wide Awake will be the beneficiary if they do go hard early.

Race 2: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1000m

SHAM I AM (2) won twice last campaign, he resumed at Geelong and after settling outside the speed, was strong through the line to score. He then again was outside the speed but was a little flat second-up, with six weeks between runs I expect him to be a lot sharper. Hopefully he can be the first across to the fence.

Dangers:

SAORSA (6) has been a little inconsistent of late, he won two back on the synthetic then had no luck last time He was beaten almost ten lengths, but that margin is unfair. He will need everything to go right, look for him late. HE CAN STAR (4) has won three of his last four, the one he wasn’t first past the post he was brave in defeat after sitting wide without cover. He gets a good claim but will need cover early. GIBBON (5) is now an 8YO, forget he went around at Cranbourne last start after being held-up for most of the straight.

Race 3: BM70 Handicap 2400m

CRACKSMAN (5) does not know how to run a bad race this time in, he won across the border earlier in the prep and has placed at his last three. Last time at Geelong he was very well supported and started an even money favourite, got a mile back before running on well to get within a length at the finish. He just needs everything to go right, if so, should be winding up at the business end.

Dangers:

PROTECTION MONEY (4) has won two of his last four, he had his chance last time when close-up and should be mid-field in the run. He probably needs to be making his run prior to the top pick circling them. LIGHT PILLAR (2) settled up outside the speed and stuck on well at his latest, he gets the good claim and should again be hard to catch. METEOR LIGHT (3) looks the leader, his chances will rely on being first to the rail, doubt he can run past anything in the straight.

Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1300m

MAGNOLIA MAN (8) is one of the more interesting runners of the day, he won his first two races in NZ and has since been transferred to the Busuttin/Young stable. They can really find one from their homeland and get it to perform here fresh, he has had three jump-outs recently, winning the latest. A replay of tat jump out can be found here.

Dangers:

SWING AND BOOM (10) is resuming, she stormed home from the back to win her maiden when resuming last campaign. She won again at her next start before a couple of decent efforts in this grade, she maps well and should be camped close to the speed. INCREDULOUS DREAM (16) was a Bendigo winner on debut, she was thrown in the seep-end at start two at G3 level up the straight. She was well beaten but wasn’t horrible and has shown enough at the jump-outs to be competitive back in this grade resuming. SCORPIUS (3) is drawn horribly out under the arches, he has had a month between runs, they are likely to light him up early and try to cross to the rail. How much work will he have to do and will he get across? Lay him in the run if he doesn’t.

Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1400m

RICH HIPS (5) was a brilliant winner at Sandown when resuming, she was poorly away and copped some interference before charging home to win easily in a race that has produced two subsequent winners. She then went to Caulfield in a harder race and was a real eye-catcher late, if the track is playing fair, I can’t see how she doesn’t win this with a leg in the air!

Dangers:

There only looks a few, if any. THOUSAND WISHES (3) maps to get a great run in transit, she has placed at two of three previously when resuming and was flying at the back-end of last prep. She just may need a little luck when they quicken, she is a must for all exotic tickets. SHANDY (7) looks the only other realistic winning chance, she was well backed to win an easier race at Bendigo last time, the problem with her is that she will be back with the top pick, it will take a gun ride from Jamie Kah to be in front of her in the run home. ZIZZIS (4) next best, but for the minor spots only.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1500m

IMPERIAL DAWN (12) looks to have come back well, she was flying last prep before going to the paddock. She resumed at Bendigo against the girls in this grade, settled mid-field before running on hard to get within a length at the finish. Up in trip looks ideal and is a perfect 2/2 when second-up.

Dangers:

BLONDEAU (11) was backed into red figures at Geelong 12 days ago, after settling mid-field he was well ridden to save ground and ran on well to score. This is harder stepping out of maiden grade but he does look to have more upside than his older opposition. MUSWELLBROOK (1) has been up for a while but is always thereabouts. He has placed at his last couple following a Sale win, likely to be giving them a big start though from the draw.  BLINDER (2) is another that will be in the back-half early, he is getting out to the right trip here and should be fully fit third-up.

Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1800m

OCEAN MISS (3) has won two of three this time in, her only failure was in a strong race at Flemington on Finals Day. She sat up outside the leader at her latest and although the margin wasn’t huge, it was a dominant win after doing the work. She maps well again and although she carries the extra weight, can win again.

Dangers:

CASH FOR DIAMONDS (8) wants it wet, she won by more than 6 lengths at Bendigo on the bog track at Bendigo two back then peaked late last time running second with a huge gap to the third horse. If the track is downgraded at all, she goes in as the top pick. JENKINS (5) gets the blinkers back on, he was off the map with the satchel swinger’s last start at Swan Hill in an easier race and didn’t disappoint those that backed him, charging clear late. Harder again but the stable has shown intent off that win with the blinkers back on. APPROACH DISCREET (4) comes through the same race as the top pick last time, he got home well and does meet her better in the weights. Olly goes on as well, a reverse in the result from last time wouldn’t shock

Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m

EXQUISITE BEAUTY (3) gets a stack of gear changes resuming today, she has a good record fresh and won’t know herself back in this grade. Last time we saw her she was only beaten 4 lengths at the Valley in the Typhoon Tracy at G3 level, look for her to be winding up late.

Dangers:

MRS BECKHAM (4) is also fresh off a 20-week break but doesn’t have a good record first-up. She wasn’t great last prep in harder races but if she can find the form of earlier in the year, she will be hard to run down. HIGH RISK (7) was a debut winner and hasn’t been far away at two runs out of that grade, she has good speed and will try to lead. Not a big fan of the jock, will need to get it easy in front. LING LING (12) is another that will need to lead to win, she went har din front last start and was only run down late.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Saturday August 8
Saturday @ Flemington: 

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 7 – SKYMAN
Race 1: LORD BELVEDERE (2) from 5, 4 and 6.
Race 2: YES BABY YES (6) from 2, 1 and 4.
Race 3: ROYAL FILLY (4) from 1, 3 and 2.
Race 4: TAVIDANCE (10) from 7, 8 and 9.
Race 5: ICONOCLASM (1) from 9, 6 and 4.
Race 6: WIDGEE TURF (4) from 2, 1 and 5.
Race 7: SKYMAN (5) from 4, 10 and 8.
Race 8: SWORD OF MERCY (11) from 6, 7 and 2.
Race 9: LORD MARKEL (9) from 12, 10 and 14.

===

Race 1: Handicap 2350m

LORD BELVEDERE (2) has won back-to-back races since resuming off an unofficial break, both here at headquarters where he is undefeated. He got back and ran on too well then sat closer last time and got the bob on the line. He looks better when sitting b ack and coming with one run and should be hard to beat again.

Dangers:

EXEMPLAR (5) won at big odds here at the track three weeks ago, this looks no harder. He should be midfield but may have the job of giving the top pick the cart into it? SOUTH PACIFIC (4) rounds out the top three for the Maher/Eustace stable, he gets a couple of gear changes after grinding home behind Exemplar last time. He should be a little sharper with the gear tinkling the stable has done.  BERTWHISTLE (6) is flying winning three of her last four across the border in SA, this is harder, but she will be making her own luck up on the speed.

Race 2: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1410m

YES BABY YES (6) was brilliant resuming at Seymour getting her maiden in style. She showed good tactical speed to lead, kicked clear early in the straight and was strong through the line to win by 3.5 lengths. Hopefully she can find the front again, she will be hard to run down.

Dangers:

GALCTIC FURY (2) is still a maiden after 9 starts but has placed 6 times. He maps to get a soft run off the inside draw, he had no luck in the Vobis race last time and should have probably almost won. DIESEL ‘N’ DUST (1) has been very consistent this time in, he won his maiden by a space two starts back then wasn’t beaten far into second at the Valley last time after a perfect run in transit. BIG DAY OUT (4) next best but I would be very surprised if one of the top three didn’t win.

Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1800m

ROYAL FILLY (4) debuted on the synthetic track two and a half weeks ago, she was very well backed and after a gun ride, angled into the clear in the straight and was strong through the line to win. She steps up from the 1400m to the 1800m at start two, a tough ask but the way she finished off at her first start, it looks to suit.

Dangers:

FLINDERS RIVER (1) got his first win out of maiden grade last time, he got a good sit behind the leader, was slightly held-up before getting the run and was strong through the line. He also has the slight query stepping up in trip. REUBER (3) is still a maiden, he settled closer last time and stuck on well after facing the breeze. A big rise in distance, will he try to lead from the inside draw? FRANKIE TWO ANGELS (2) got the first win at Sandown, he was ok on debut at Listed grade and looks another that is suited getting out in trip. Not a lot of confidence overall in the race with the step up in distance for the first time for most.

Race 4: BM84 Handicap 1720m

TAVIDANCE (10) won a BM78 two starts back, he then went to Caulfield last time and got further back in the run. He did plenty wrong in the run home, down to the 56kg in this grade and the inside gate, he won’t be doing any work.

Dangers:

WINNING PARTNER (7) has been going well, a win across the border three starts back has been followed by two placings, the latest as a beaten favourite at the Valley. They stick with the kid to ride but he does not map as well. FIVE KINGDOM (8) comes through the same race as Winning Partner last time, he has been getting too far back at his two runs this campaign but looks suited on the quick back-up. RESERVE STREET (9) has been very inconsistent, he gets the blinkers off and should be added in to all bet types.

Race 5: Handicap 1410m

ICONOCLASM (1) is a four-time winner here at the track, including two starts back when storming home late. I love the booking of Damien Lane, he gets a soft run from the draw and has won fresh previously. He will be giving them a start, I think he may show something fresh.

Dangers:

COMING AROUND (9) won three in a row before coming over from WA, he made his East Coast debut in the Mildura Cup and was closing all the time. He will have taken plenty from that and has placed at three of his four previous second-up runs. LABURNUM (6) has had 6-weeks between runs, last time at Caulfield against the girls she probably should have won after being held-up then driving late. RIVET DELIGHT (4) is a most interesting runner, he started his career in the UK before going to Hong Kong and ending up here. He has had one run here for the Lindsay Smith yard, I liked the way he hit the line. As always with this stable, money talks.

Race 6: Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m

WIDGEE TURF (4) has not won in more than a year, he races well here and can bounce back in what looks a very tricky race. He is first-up and has been good at the jump-outs, the straight six may be a little short but I can see some good speed and he may just pop up fresh.

Dangers:

HOME OF THE BRAVE (2) has placed at both runs at the track, he should be up on the speed and love the booking of Oliver. The only concern with the wide draw is that he may have to lead up the outside division?  SO SI BON (1) was flying last campaign, he gets the blinkers off but needs to improve on his poor record at the track and probably wants further. GREAT AGAIN (5) probably looks the best suited by the trip against the more seasoned campaigners that may want further, he is just not one of mine. He is does go well here and can certainly win, I expect that he will be well backed.

Race 7: BM78 Handicap 2000m

SKYMAN (5) made a big impression at his Australian debut, he had shown plenty in the UK before coming to join the Waller yard. Two weeks ago at Caulfield in this grade, he got well back in the run before running on to win easily. The fifth horse across the line that day has since come out and won and Tavidance was also down the track, he goes around earlier to line up the form.

Dangers:

EUREKA STREET (4) ran on well at Sandown on the Hillside track last time, that was a big improvement on what he had shown earlier in the prep. He will get back but gets the big straight to try and run them down. DENERO (10) was a heavy track winner two starts ago, forget he went around at Caulfield as he went to the line untested behind them without getting a crack. KENTUCKY TORNADO (8) was flying at the back-end of last prep winning three of four, loved the way she ran through the line fresh over the mile and looks suited getting out to this trip.

Race 8: BM90 Handicap 1000m

SWORD OF MERCY (11) was sent to the paddock following her maiden win at Ballarat, she resumed with back-to-back wins at her first two goes against the winners. She was off the track for 5-weeks before going to Caulfield, hit the line well in what was the best last furlong of the day. She looks a great each-way bet.

Dangers:

OCTANE (6) looks the obvious danger, he has won five of his last six starts including his last two across the border. Hard to line-up the form going into a race like this, hence why I want to be against if he starts at the top of the betting. If he gets cover mid-field he will finish hard at his first look up the straight. ELITE LEGACY (7) has won two in a row, he is yet to win here up the straight but maps to get a soft run. CHICAGO CUB (2) won three of four before going to the paddock, he has a great record here and at the track. Doubt he will lead over the 1000m, if it was 6 furlongs he would be the top pick.

Race 9: BM70 Handicap 1410m

LORD MARKEL (9) resumed as a winner at Sandown, he was poorly away and settled back in the field before getting to the middle of the track and being too strong late. He is a better horse fresh, a winner second-up he looks to have come back well.

Dangers:

PINYIN (12) never runs a bad race, she has placed at two of three since coming back from the paddock. She loomed up to win here last time when second but looked to just peak late. Olly sticks with the ride, she will need to be held-up for one run. ZERO DOUBT (10) gets the blinkers off at his first look at the track, he was plain last time but expect the gear change can bring out an improvement. THAT GIRL (14) gets a minor gear change, she will also get back and is fully fit.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday August 5
Wednesday @ Cranbourne: 

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – AWKWARD
Race 1: BOSS’N THE MOSS (1) from 3, 11 and 4.
Race 2: AWKWARD (11) from 9, 3 and 12.
Race 3: MOVING DAY (11) from 1, 7 and 12.
Race 4: LAKE’S FOLLY (6) from 2, 1 and 4.
Race 5: LUNAR FLARE (2) from 8, 4 and 1.
Race 6: NO FRONTIERS (9) from 8, 10 and 11.
Race 7: IMPERIAL LAD (6) from 9, 11 and 2.
Race 8: EIGHT TIMES A LADY (5) from 12, 13 and 10.

===

Race 1: Maiden Plate 1500m

BOSS’N THE MOSS (1) has placed at two of three in his short career, the latest was on a heavy track at Moe when he was forced to sit outside the leader. He took over in the straight and was only run down over the last few strides, huge jockey change with Olly replacing Maskiell should see him go one better.

Dangers:

FRAG (3) showed improvement at his latest after getting off a heavy track for the first time this campaign. He was held-up at a vital stage early in the straight before finding the line into third. HIGH FASHION (11) is unplaced at all five career starts, she looks suited getting out a furlong in trip after hitting the line well last start over 1300m. Watch for any money for the Mick Kent debutant LUNA ONE (4).

Race 2: 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m

AWKWARD (11) has the “awkward” gate to deal with, the Godolphin filly has had three starts and placed at all of them. She has been mid-field in the run at all three runs, I liked the way she hit the line last time in a race where it was beneficial to be closer to the speed. There have been two winners come through that race also, proving a good form reference.

Dangers:

THE BIG EASY (9) is resuming, he was tackling some of the best juveniles in Sydney at his first prep. He has been gelded and gets a couple of gear changes, I expect him to be a big improver. DIAMONDS’N’STONES (3) placed on debut, I was a little disappointed though as he had the gun run in transit and was favoured by the tempo. He doesn’t map as well today. LINAS MAGIC (12) placed on debut then ran through the line against the tempo second-up. Look for her late.

Race 3: Maiden Plate 1300m

MOVING DAY (11) is an interesting runner for the Ellerton/Zahra camp, she debuted back in October last year, has been off the scene for a long 42-weeks. She showed speed in that only start, obviously has had some issues but I like the way she went at the jump-outs. It looks a very thin race and she can return a winner.

Dangers:

ALTERNO (1) resumed at Sale and had a gun run behind the leader, he was then held-up until the 100m mark when he got out and flashed at them to miss by a length. Draws well again and the extra 100m suits. EMERALD CROWN (7) resumes, she placed at her last two runs before going to the paddock. She has shown enough at the jump-outs. FOOL’S OVERTURE (12) is on debut for the Busuttin/Young stable, drawn wide, watch for any money for him.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1400m

LAKE’S FOLLY (6) will start a short-priced favourite but deserves that spot in the market off his consistent efforts this campaign. He won resuming and has placed at three subsequent starts, he has very good closing speed and just needs the right set-up with the speed genuine and they won’t be holding him out at the back-end. Inside draw a ????

Dangers:

MR TIPLA (2) sat up on the speed and won on a heavy track two starts back, he got further back in a harder race in town last time and was only fair. Expect him to be settling closer from the good draw. YELDARB (1) ran on well to win at Sandown two back, he again made good ground last time to only be beaten 2 lengths. He has had 6 weeks between runs and will be giving them a start again. THE GREAT HANS (4) is going for three in a row, a good maiden win after being held-up was followed by a victory here from the back at his first go out of that grade. Not sure how far back he will get? Happy to be against him at the quote, would need $8+ to back him.

Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2060m

LUNAR FLARE (2) is coming off back-to-back wins, two back at Sandown she was mid-field before saving ground on the turn and running on hard despite laying in. She then came here and again ran over the top of them late from back in the pack, she was dominant through the line and this distance range really looks to suit.

Dangers:

It looks a race of very limited chances. AUSTRIA (8) has been well travelled of late, she came back down from a Qld campaign and was placed here three weeks ago, she didn’t have a lot of luck when the runs came. MAGAZINE (4) is a dual acceptor, she is also entered for Tuesday at Pakenham on the synthetic and looks to be wanting this trip. CLEAN ACHEEVA (1) can go in for the minor exotic bets but hard to see her taking home the major prize.

Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1000m

NO FRONTIERS (9) was a brilliant winner on debut back in May at Bairnsdale, she was very easy in the betting but as they say, the horses don’t know that! She showed good speed to lead, railed hard and kicked away in the straight to win by more than 2 lengths with daylight third. It has proven a good form reference and off the jump-outs, looks ready to go.

Dangers:

BLUEST SKY (8) looks the main danger, she was also a winner on debut. She sat up outside the speed in what was a harder maiden than the top pick came through, she was strong through the oine to win comfortably. Will she have to sit wide though? SNAP CRACKLE BOOM (10) resumed here and was brave in defeat, she was forced to sit wide without cover and her condition may have just got the better of her late. LING LING (11) resumed in the same race as her here at the track three weeks ago, she also stuck on well after sitting wide. She doesn’t map much better though from the horror draw.

Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1200m

IMPERIAL LAD (6) is a consistent type, he was runner-up resuming after sitting off the track and did well to stick on after a tough run. He then went to Sandown on the Hillside and after only being fairly away, worked to get outside the leader and was only beaten a length and a half. He draws poorly but gets the blinkers on for the first time, hopefully they ride him aggressively and try to cross at the start.

Dangers:

ZENDE (9) won his maiden by a space then was narrowly beaten up the straight at his first start out of that grade. Sent straight to the paddock, he resumes here and should roll forward early with the top pick. LA LUCCIOLA (11) placed at her first ever heavy track run when resuming, she has not placed at two previous second-up runs but looks to have come back well. PRIVATE LOUNGE (2) is resuming, she has been in the black-book a long time off her last run when she had no luck at a vital stage. She may need the run but can win soon.

Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1600m

Tough race to finish, play very wide in the Quaddie, its almost a field job! EIGHT TIMES A LADY (5) will be double figure odds, she doesn’t have great numerical form but has been racing well enough. She will be giving them a start, last time at Sandown she got to the best part of the track and made good ground. In the big field she can settle closer and run over the top.

Dangers:

Most of them! SO YOU BEAUTY (12) should also get out to double figure odds from the terrible draw. She has good tactical speed and it may just be a case of handlebars down and trying to cross from the outside, she will be gasping for air late no doubt. SUNSET EAGLE (13) has won twice in her career, both here at her home track. She was very plain on the good track last time, she may be better suited if there is a bit of sting out of the ground. BROKEN TREATY (10) races well here, she is coming off a three week break, that last start was here when she circled them from a mile back and kept chasing nicely through the line.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Saturday August 1
Saturday @ Moonee Valley:

Track: Soft5. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 2 – THERESABEARINTHERE
Race 1: VICTORIA STAR (6) from 2, 1 and 4.
Race 2: THERESABEARINTHERE (4) from 8, 3 and 1.
Race 3: CLEAN MACHINE (5) from 8, 4 and 2.
Race 4: A GOOD YARN (1) from 2, 4 and 7.
Race 5: SOVERIGN AWARD (3) from 11, 6 and 7.
Race 6: WILMOT PASS (10) from 9, 5 and 7.
Race 7: MAHAMEDEIS (1) from 7, 8 and 5.
Race 8: WINNING PARTNER (2) from 12, 5 and 15.
Race 9: HYPERSONIC (19) from 2, 12 and 14.

===

Race 1: Handicap 1600m

VICTORIA STAR (6) is a real winner, he won three in a row before placing at his last couple. Not a fan of the jockey change to be honest and I won’t be taking odds-on, but if he can ride him positively, he looks hardest to beat. That Winter Championship final that he placed in last start is usually a good form race going forward.

Dangers:

AL GALAYEL (2) has not won in almost 2 years, there was a lot to like about the way he hit the line leas start. There doesn’t look a lot of speed so he may need to make a mid-race move. VASSILATOR (1) was a winner at Flemington earlier this prep, he will get back mid-field or worse and run on hard. EXASPERATE (4) is resuming, it may be a tough ask fresh at the mile, he is coming off three of four wins before going to the paddock. If he is ready to go, he must be included and the small field suits.

Race 2: 3Y0 Colts and Geldings Handicap 1000m

THERESABEARINTHERE (4) has had three runs at this his first campaign, but they have been well spaced. He returned off an 8-week break at Morphetville leading all the way after being heavily backed. Comes to Melbourne for the first time with the kid riding, expect him to be very hard to run down.

Dangers:

DIESEL ‘N’ DUST (8) had been improving at each run this time in, he finally go the maiden win out of the way at Wodonga last time with a dominant victory by more almost 4 lengths. He sat mid-field and showed a nice turn-of-foot, he draws well and Olly goes on. JABALI RIDGE (3) put in two nice efforts to start this campaign, he then went to hard at Flemington up the straight six in front last time. I expect he will be ridden more quietly here today. HARD LANDING (1) won the Maribyrnong Plate up the straight on debut, he then showed speed but weakened in a Blue Diamond Prelude. He resumes here with a couple of gear changes and obviously has ability.

Race 3: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1000m

CLEAN MACHINE (5) was huge odds on debut in a Blue Diamond Prelude, she made some ground out wide from a mile back before being sent straight to the paddock. She resumed at Caulfield 5 weeks ago, showed a lot more speed to lead but was run down over the last few strides. This looks no harder, a little worried that she was favoured the way the race was run last time, but if she can get up on the speed back in trip, she will be hard to run past.

Dangers:

PEGGY SELENE (8) has not missed a place in her 5 career starts, she has shown versatility in her short career. She led all the way and bolted in to win by panels at maiden level then ran 0no when narrowly beaten as favourite on the heavy track last time. MISS BOSETTI (4) won an easier race at Mornington earlier in eth prep, she didn’t have much luck at Sandown on the Hillside last time after being held-up until the furlong. GEIST (2) is resuming, still a maiden, she has only raced in black-type races as a juvenile she has been good enough at the jump-outs.

Race 4: BM78 Handicap 1000m

A GOOD YARN (1) has come back well this campaign. He placed at his first two runs, last start at Geelong he began well and ran them along in front and never looked like getting headed. The official margin was 3.25 lengths, see how the track is playing and if there is any bias favouring those on the speed, double your bet.

Dangers:

FIGHT (2) won a BM70 at Cranbourne two starts back, he then went up the straight and was running on well when hampered late. I don’t know if he would have won, but he would have gone very close. He is unplaced at two runs at the track but should be hitting the line hard if the top pick doesn’t get a soft lead. BROOKLYN HUSTLE (4) is resuming off a long break and has been good at the jump-outs. She has own fresh but that was on debut 86 weeks ago, fresh from the paddock, happy to take her on if she starts at the top of the betting. PROPELLE (7) will get back and may need some luck when the runs come off the inside draw, she will get an economical run so if the splits come, look for her late.

Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1600m

SOVERIGN AWARD (3) resumed against the girls down in grade at Sale three weeks ago, she was an easing favourite and after settling mid-field, ran on well enough to score back along the rail. She got all the favours but looks to have come back well, I expect that today she may be looking for the front?

Dangers:

SOARING EAGLE (11) has been consistent this time in without winning, she settled up on the speed closer last time and although she hit a flat spot when they quickened, she stuck on well enough, suggesting that the extra trip should suit. MAXIMAK (6) has been up a while and never runs a bad race, a won against the boys two back then ran on hard against the tempo at Flemington. She would be on top if this was on a bigger track, look for her late if the speed is on. WEST WIND (7) changed it up last start and tried to lead all the way at Sale, they may try similar tactics with the kid riding here.

Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1200m

WILMOT PASS (10) won narrowly but convincingly up the straight last time, he settled just off the speed and ran through the line well. He can get further back in his races, hopefully he is ridden for luck, if the breaks come at his first look at the track, he will finish too well.

Dangers:

BLOOD OATH (9) is resuming off a break, this stable knows how to get one going first-up. He won his maiden when fresh last campaign before a great prep that netted three wins in total. He gets a claim and a couple of minor gear changes. CONDO’S EXPRESS (5) is another that is first-up, he stuck on well when we last saw him at Listed level after working to find the front. Walker sticks with the ride, expect him to be getting a cozy run behind the lead. TITAN BLINDERS (7) rounds out a trio of chances that are coming back from the paddock, he has won two from four first-up including last campaign.

Race 7: Handicap 2040m

MAHAMEDEIS (1) had a month between runs, then went to Caulfield in a VOBIS race at Caulfield and was well backed as a solid favourite. He had the gun run behind the speed, angled three-wide on the turn then was dominant over the last furlong for a strong win. He maps well again, this is harder but if he shows that same acceleration again, he will be hard to hold off late.

Dangers:

POLLY GREY (7) looks very hard to beat, happy to risk her though if she is at the top of the betting having her first look at the Valley. She has talent and comes through a strong Winter Champs Final but giving them a start around this circuit first time, lay her unless you can get better than $5. TAVIRUN (8) was an easing favourite but defied the betting drift at Sandown to win, he was well ridden and too strong to the line, albeit hanging in down the straight. BEDFORD (5) handles all conditions, he was a wet track winner last time at Caulfield and should be hitting the line hard after settling in the second half.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1500m

WINNING PARTNER (2) is an interesting runner from the McEvoy yard that has been racing across the border in SA. He won a Murray Bridge BM82 a couple of starts back, last time he was finishing best but unable to reel in the smart winner, a gap back to third. They wouldn’t be bringing him here if they didn’t think he had the class.

Dangers:

SUKOOT (12) bolted in to win by 4 lengths when resuming on the heavy track. Since he has placed at Sandown and then made a long run from the back to take the lead at the furlong, only to be run down late. Hopefully they just save him for one run. TATUNKA (5) is flying, he won a 58,64 and 70 all in succession, last start at Caulfield in this grade he was well backed at double figure odds and wasn’t beaten far after having every chance. STREET TOUGH (15) must be thrown in all bet types if he gets a start. He is a dual acceptor, drawn out here and is racing well for the Payne yard.

Race 9: BM70 Handicap 1200m

Is this the toughest race of the day? For a couple of reasons, the huge field looks very evenly matched, and the fact that HYPERSONIC (19) is the fifth emergency, if he gets a start, he will be the favourite and incredibly hard to beat. For the sake of the preview we will assume he gets in,

Dangers:

If he is not in it looks a dead-set lottery. SEBRAKATE (2) is resuming and has a good record fresh, he is likely to get back in the run so probably needs everything to go right when the runs come, getting off the inside will be an issue. LADY LOFT (12) has the poor draw to overcome, she looked a little flat resuming, if she can get cover and the right horse to follow, I expect her to finish it off betterRAKTOFF (14) is not officially fresh but has been given 7-weeks off, she will be up on the speed and making her own luck.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday July 29
Wednesday @ Bendigo:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – ZEPPA
Race 1: BRAZEN FORCE (1) from 8, 6 and 2.
Race 2: ZEPPA (12) from 9, 14 and 2.
Race 3: CONVERGING (2) from 5, 4 and 1.
Race 4: STARDEN LASS (8) from 4, 5 and 9.
Race 5: DESERT DREAMER (3) from 10, 14 and 8.
Race 6: REFRESHED (12) from 2, 1 and 3.
Race 7: CONFUSION (5) from 4, 12 and 13.
Race 8: ACUMEN (10) from 3, 6 and 9.

===

Race 1: Maiden Plate 1400m

Tough race to start the day as the first-starters look to play an important role. BRAZEN FORCE (1) debuted way back more than a year ago, he didn’t show much in two starts in the bush and was sent to the paddock. He resumed at Seymour and although he was beaten a long way, there was a lot to like about the run after being off the track. Expect him to be a big improver.

Dangers:

Look for any money for the three on debut, in particular the Busuttin/Young trained GOLDIDIVA (8) and the Maher/Eustace colt having start one, LET’S KARAKA DEEL (6). THE DUKE OF HAZARD (2) looks the best of the rest with the blinkers coming off at start three, he improved last start and won’t be far away if he can bring that synthetic track form to the turf.

Race 2: 2YO Maiden Plate 1300m

ZEPPA (12) is an interesting runner resuming for the McEvoy yard, he was sent to the paddock after a good effort up the straight in a harder race back in the early summer. He was gelded and resumes today, drawn well with John Allen taking the ride. I have no doubt there will be money for him off the jump-outs.

Dangers:

ROYAL GUN SALUTE (9) has placed at each of his two career starts, he showed that he handles the heavy track well at start two after not being beaten far on debut. He should settle closer than last time. PERFECT WORLD (14) was resuming at Sandown three weeks ago on the heavy track, she was very green throughout and over-raced badly, she looks to have talent but has plenty to learn. CLINCHED (2) debuted at Wodonga ten days ago, he was awkwardly away before settling back in the field. He was easy in the betting but ran on well from a mile back, the extra trip looks to suit.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 2400m

CONVERGING (2) was a winner three starts back on the Lakeside track, she has had two runs since on the heavy, placing at one of them, The latest she settled just off the see and appeared to have her chance, this looks no harder and she maps well again.

Dangers:

NASHVILLE SOUND (5) was poor last start but simply got too far back, I prefer him to be ridden up on the speed. Expect him to be a big improver if they ride him that way. BLANDFORD LAD (4) is going for three wins in a row, he has some with well-timed runs at his last two to get over the top late. This is harder again, is he up to this class? If the pace is genuine, he will be finishing as good as any. LIGHT PILLAR (1) is an import that hasn’t exactly lit it up since being in Australia for two runs. He was tried at Listed level back in the UK, should be getting out to a more suitable trip here.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1300m

STARDEN LASS (8) has not won this time in, and to be fair, she has only been fair at one of her three runs. She was at Swan Hill two starts back and was a real eye-catcher running into second, she never got into the race last time when going across the border. She was disappointing on paper but it has been a good form reference. She can win at her best.

Dangers:

BOBBY ROCKS (4) will appreciate getting back on a good surface, she looked a little flat when resuming on the heavy track. She has won second-up previously and looks an improver in an even race. IMPERIAL DAWN (5) gets the tongue-tie for the first time, she is resuming off a long break. She was last seen over further and racing up on the speed, expect her to race mid-field here and attack the line. WISH I MIGHT (9) is another that has not won away from a good track so should appreciate getting off the heavy. She was very consistent through her last prep. Tough race!

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1300m

DESERT DREAMER (3) resumed at Murtoa on a soft track in an easier BM58, he was mid-field in the run and held-up early in the straight behind the leader. He got clear over the last 100m and drove hard to get up narrowly, I loved the way he responded very late. He has good natural speed and I expect that he will try and lead here.

Dangers:

Looks a very tough race on paper, Quaddie players should be lowering the percentage in this, the first leg. INSPIRED SUN (10) was outclassed at Caulfield at his latest. He has placed at two of four this time in, a back-marker that will be giving them a start, especially from the draw. SPIRIT MEDIUM (14) showed plenty of talent at her first campaign, she has obviously had some issues being in the paddock for just on a year. She won her maiden here in convincing fashion up on the speed, she may just be better than these? NEBARAZ (8) was a winner on debut, he resumed at Sale and was good through the line, he should appreciate the extra trip and gets the blinkers off for the first time.

Race 6: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1400m

REFRESHED (12) was a brilliant winner on debut at Wodonga and was sent straight to the paddock. She was solid in her first two starts since resuming, then went to Sandown at her first go on a real heavy track and failed badly. She got back in the which is not her go and never got into the race, she clearly looks better suited on the good track.

Dangers:

CUPID’S BOW (2) has not run a bad race this time in, placing at her last four. She flashed late from well back to just finish in a blanket finish at Cranbourne, this looks no harder. STARDAYZ (1) has been up for a long time, she was a little disappointing in town last time. You know what you will get with her, she will try to roll along in front and give them something to catch. NORMA STARS (3) has done most of her racing on the synthetic track of late, including a win last start where she was beautifully ridden up on the speed.

Race 7: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1600m

CONFUSION (5) is yet to win out of maiden grade, I like the way he has been improving at his last couple and looks ready to take that next step. Two back at Donald he ran on well behind a smart winner then again chased hard from mid-field at Geelong last time into second. Assuming the track is playing fair, he should be fully fit and back in trip, looks beautifully placed.

Dangers:

OCEAN’S THIRTEEN (4) was coming off a 6-week break when winning at Pakenham two back, she failed on the heavy last time but looks to benefit here coming back on top of the ground. NO CHANGE (12) has been racing ok without having much luck, he was forced to race three-wide no cover at Caulfield last start and the effort told late. He is drawn out again, hopefully they just let him drop out and get cover, expect him to finish it off better. TOFF CHOICE (13) next best in what is a very tough race.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1100m

ACUMEN (10) is a Godolphin gelding that won back-to-back races last prep, there was a lot to like about his return to racing at Caulfield last start in a race no harder than this. He settled just behind the speed but missed the boat when the runs came, was forced to go very wide and was ok through the line. It has proven a good form race with 2 winners coming through it since, he was a winner second-up last time in.

Dangers:

GINGER JONES (3) was well ridden at Caulfield to win before going to the paddock, he looked to have every chance when placing first-up but may have just run out of condition close to the line. The extra 100m suits, they should go forward with him early. EXPRESS PASS (6) is resuming, he has not missed a place at three previous fresh runs and although he will be giving them a start, will be the one to benefit if the speed is hot. Look for him late. DEEP EUPHORIA (9) is another that will get back in the run, she hasn’t won in more than a year bit has been hitting the line well at her last couple.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday July 29
Wednesday @ Bendigo:

Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – ZEPPA
Race 1: BRAZEN FORCE (1) from 8, 6 and 2.
Race 2: ZEPPA (12) from 9, 14 and 2.
Race 3: CONVERGING (2) from 5, 4 and 1.
Race 4: STARDEN LASS (8) from 4, 5 and 9.
Race 5: DESERT DREAMER (3) from 10, 14 and 8.
Race 6: REFRESHED (12) from 2, 1 and 3.
Race 7: CONFUSION (5) from 4, 12 and 13.
Race 8: ACUMEN (10) from 3, 6 and 9.

===

Race 1: Maiden Plate 1400m

Tough race to start the day as the first-starters look to play an important role. BRAZEN FORCE (1) debuted way back more than a year ago, he didn’t show much in two starts in the bush and was sent to the paddock. He resumed at Seymour and although he was beaten a long way, there was a lot to like about the run after being off the track. Expect him to be a big improver.

Dangers:

Look for any money for the three on debut, in particular the Busuttin/Young trained GOLDIDIVA (8) and the Maher/Eustace colt having start one, LET’S KARAKA DEEL (6). THE DUKE OF HAZARD (2) looks the best of the rest with the blinkers coming off at start three, he improved last start and won’t be far away if he can bring that synthetic track form to the turf.

Race 2: 2YO Maiden Plate 1300m

ZEPPA (12) is an interesting runner resuming for the McEvoy yard, he was sent to the paddock after a good effort up the straight in a harder race back in the early summer. He was gelded and resumes today, drawn well with John Allen taking the ride. I have no doubt there will be money for him off the jump-outs.

Dangers:

ROYAL GUN SALUTE (9) has placed at each of his two career starts, he showed that he handles the heavy track well at start two after not being beaten far on debut. He should settle closer than last time. PERFECT WORLD (14) was resuming at Sandown three weeks ago on the heavy track, she was very green throughout and over-raced badly, she looks to have talent but has plenty to learn. CLINCHED (2) debuted at Wodonga ten days ago, he was awkwardly away before settling back in the field. He was easy in the betting but ran on well from a mile back, the extra trip looks to suit.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 2400m

CONVERGING (2) was a winner three starts back on the Lakeside track, she has had two runs since on the heavy, placing at one of them, The latest she settled just off the see and appeared to have her chance, this looks no harder and she maps well again.

Dangers:

NASHVILLE SOUND (5) was poor last start but simply got too far back, I prefer him to be ridden up on the speed. Expect him to be a big improver if they ride him that way. BLANDFORD LAD (4) is going for three wins in a row, he has some with well-timed runs at his last two to get over the top late. This is harder again, is he up to this class? If the pace is genuine, he will be finishing as good as any. LIGHT PILLAR (1) is an import that hasn’t exactly lit it up since being in Australia for two runs. He was tried at Listed level back in the UK, should be getting out to a more suitable trip here.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1300m

STARDEN LASS (8) has not won this time in, and to be fair, she has only been fair at one of her three runs. She was at Swan Hill two starts back and was a real eye-catcher running into second, she never got into the race last time when going across the border. She was disappointing on paper but it has been a good form reference. She can win at her best.

Dangers:

BOBBY ROCKS (4) will appreciate getting back on a good surface, she looked a little flat when resuming on the heavy track. She has won second-up previously and looks an improver in an even race. IMPERIAL DAWN (5) gets the tongue-tie for the first time, she is resuming off a long break. She was last seen over further and racing up on the speed, expect her to race mid-field here and attack the line. WISH I MIGHT (9) is another that has not won away from a good track so should appreciate getting off the heavy. She was very consistent through her last prep. Tough race!

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1300m

DESERT DREAMER (3) resumed at Murtoa on a soft track in an easier BM58, he was mid-field in the run and held-up early in the straight behind the leader. He got clear over the last 100m and drove hard to get up narrowly, I loved the way he responded very late. He has good natural speed and I expect that he will try and lead here.

Dangers:

Looks a very tough race on paper, Quaddie players should be lowering the percentage in this, the first leg. INSPIRED SUN (10) was outclassed at Caulfield at his latest. He has placed at two of four this time in, a back-marker that will be giving them a start, especially from the draw. SPIRIT MEDIUM (14) showed plenty of talent at her first campaign, she has obviously had some issues being in the paddock for just on a year. She won her maiden here in convincing fashion up on the speed, she may just be better than these? NEBARAZ (8) was a winner on debut, he resumed at Sale and was good through the line, he should appreciate the extra trip and gets the blinkers off for the first time.

Race 6: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1400m

REFRESHED (12) was a brilliant winner on debut at Wodonga and was sent straight to the paddock. She was solid in her first two starts since resuming, then went to Sandown at her first go on a real heavy track and failed badly. She got back in the which is not her go and never got into the race, she clearly looks better suited on the good track.

Dangers:

CUPID’S BOW (2) has not run a bad race this time in, placing at her last four. She flashed late from well back to just finish in a blanket finish at Cranbourne, this looks no harder. STARDAYZ (1) has been up for a long time, she was a little disappointing in town last time. You know what you will get with her, she will try to roll along in front and give them something to catch. NORMA STARS (3) has done most of her racing on the synthetic track of late, including a win last start where she was beautifully ridden up on the speed.

Race 7: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1600m

CONFUSION (5) is yet to win out of maiden grade, I like the way he has been improving at his last couple and looks ready to take that next step. Two back at Donald he ran on well behind a smart winner then again chased hard from mid-field at Geelong last time into second. Assuming the track is playing fair, he should be fully fit and back in trip, looks beautifully placed.

Dangers:

OCEAN’S THIRTEEN (4) was coming off a 6-week break when winning at Pakenham two back, she failed on the heavy last time but looks to benefit here coming back on top of the ground. NO CHANGE (12) has been racing ok without having much luck, he was forced to race three-wide no cover at Caulfield last start and the effort told late. He is drawn out again, hopefully they just let him drop out and get cover, expect him to finish it off better. TOFF CHOICE (13) next best in what is a very tough race.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1100m

ACUMEN (10) is a Godolphin gelding that won back-to-back races last prep, there was a lot to like about his return to racing at Caulfield last start in a race no harder than this. He settled just behind the speed but missed the boat when the runs came, was forced to go very wide and was ok through the line. It has proven a good form race with 2 winners coming through it since, he was a winner second-up last time in.

Dangers:

GINGER JONES (3) was well ridden at Caulfield to win before going to the paddock, he looked to have every chance when placing first-up but may have just run out of condition close to the line. The extra 100m suits, they should go forward with him early. EXPRESS PASS (6) is resuming, he has not missed a place at three previous fresh runs and although he will be giving them a start, will be the one to benefit if the speed is hot. Look for him late. DEEP EUPHORIA (9) is another that will get back in the run, she hasn’t won in more than a year bit has been hitting the line well at her last couple.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Saturday July 25
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 8 – DOUBLE YOU TEE
Race 1: TAVIDANCE (4) from 9, 1 and 3.
Race 2: SENSATIONALISM (9) from 4, 8 and 1.
Race 3: PROPELLE (6) from 1, 3 and 2.
Race 4: PERSAN (1) from 3, 2 and 6.
Race 5: MODEAR (5) from 1, 4 and 3.
Race 6: COMING AROUND (10) from 3, 5 and 7.
Race 7: JUNGLE EDGE (1) from 4, 3 and 8.
Race 8: DOUBLE YOU TEE (1) from 2, 6 and 3.
Race 9: WICKLOW TOWN (3) from 1, 4 and 9.

===

Race 1: BM78 Handicap 1600m

TAVIDANCE (4) resumed off a long break at Sandown, was an easing favourite and after being slowly away, ran on hard to miss by a length. He then came here and was perfectly ridden behind the speed, pulled out in the straight and took over, showing strength through the line. Stepping up to the mile should suit.

Dangers:

DENERO (9) will find this harder than last start heavy track win at Sandown, he really jumped up out of the ground that day. Look for him late if the speed is on up front. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (1) is a last start winner here at the track and trip in the same grade, it was a tough win after working early to get up outside the speed. He goes up in weight but gets the relief with the kid going on. NO SAY IN IT (3) had no luck on a couple of occasions behind Heavenly Emperor last time, he hasn’t won in almost a year since coming east.

Race 2: VOBIS Gold Ingot 2YO Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

SENSATIONALISM (9) debuted at Sandown two and a half weeks ago, she got back in the run and really hit the line well to get into third only beaten a length. As with many of these, getting out to the 7 furlongs for the first time, the way she got home at start one, it looks suitable.

Dangers:

BURLEIGH BOY (4) was beaten almost 6 lengths in the much harder Taj Rossi final last start, it was to be expected off the tough run he had three-wide no cover without cover. ZESTY BELLE (8) isn’t far away from breaking the duck, she has placed at her last three, all racing up on the speed. Nolen sticks with the ride, hopefully she doesn’t have to face the breeze again. GALACTIC FURY (1) has placed at five of eight and gets a couple of gear changes with the blinkers going back on, he maps well to get the cold sit.

Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM90 Handicap 1100m

PROPELLE (6) like many of these, comes through a similar BM90 for the girls last time here at the ttrack. She gave them a huge start and was working into the race nicely when she was badly held-up from the furlong. She was beaten almost two lengths but probably should have nearly won. With even luck and a Willow gem, she looks hard to beat.

Dangers:

OUR CAMPANA (1) is a real winner, she showed that again when resuming after a perfect ride. This is no harder, she gets up in the weight but does get the services of boom young hoop with the claim. SHE’S A THIEF (3) has been consistent with a win and two placings from her last three, she has good tactical speed and will be looking for the top early. MISS IANO (2) showed improvement last time in a race many of these came through, she will be giving them a start. Hopefully she is ridden for luck, I don’t think she can cover ground and win.

Race 4: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2394m

PERSAN (1) looks at rock-bottom odds early but I still want to be on him when he gets out to a more realistic price. He has won four of his last five, all on rain affected tracks and all with some dominance. He is likely to get a better surface here and does have to carry the grandstand, he just maps so well and should be too quick when asked again.

Dangers:

GRINZINGER ALLEE (3) also has a good turn-of-foot, he dashed hard to win at Cranbourne last time but this is a lot harder. He probably needs to get the back of the top pick in the run to run past him. LORD BOUZERON (2) is an interesting runner, he was having his first Australian start here two weeks ago and led all the way, bolting in by almost 5 lengths. This is no harder? SIGN SEAL DELIVER (6) has had five runs out of maiden grade but rarely runs a bad race, he will go forward. His chances probably rely on getting to the front, doubt he can sit in the breeze.

Race 5: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1200m

MODEAR (5) is resuming, she was a winner last prep when fresh and looks to get a good set-up for this. She will be giving them a start and getting back early, the map looks favourable though as the big field should ensure a strong tempo. She looks better suited as the tracks dry out also.

Dangers:

Tough race. RICH HIPS (1) has shown early in her career that she races best when fresh, her win was breathtaking resuming and she did win second-up last prep. Love the jockey change with Olly taking over, look for her late. BEATRIX (4) has only ever raced on soft ground or worse, she got a further back last start and made good ground late, with the winkers on for the first time, she should be up closer here. CHASSIS (3) comes through the same race as a few of these, she will get back and needs to be saved for one run.

Race 6: Handicap 1400m

COMING AROUND (10) won three in a row before going to the paddock, he has since come east and left the Williams stable and now calls Brent Stanley stables home. He was a get-back and run on type when racing in Perth, has jumped-out well and should be able to transfer that form from WA to VIC. Any serious money late will increase the confidence.

Dangers:

TRAVIMYFRIEND (3) was beautifully ridden just off the pace before easing to the best part of the track and was dominant winning here at the track. It was a big form turnaround and need to see more consistency, but he certainly has the ability. MORRISSY (5) was a BM84 winner here at the track two back then got a mile back last time but did make good ground in a race a few of these came through. Willow sticks with the ride. BALLET MASTER (7) went to Sydney and won before returning here and running on well. They stick with the claiming jock, he may be pratted wide though for most of the race.

Race 7: Bletchingly Stakes WFA 1200m

I am sticking with JUNGLE EDGE (1), he is about to turn 10 years old but is racing as good as ever. Much has been made of his need for a wet track, it is currently slow at the time of writing and may be improving. This field is not strong for a WFA sprint, you know he will be making his own luck up on the speed. He won here a fortnight ago and good to see they stick with the jock. Come on the rain!

Dangers:

VIRIDINE (4) won in Sydney before coming here and being beaten by the top pick last time. He hit the line well but really there were no excuses, the only change here is a drier track? WIDGEE TURF (3) will get back and try and round them up, it’s been a while between wins for him, but he does usually go well fresh. SANSOM (8) rarely runs a bad race and has been placed at both runs at this track. He will find this harder but maps beautifully just off the speed.

Race 8: VOBIS Gold Stayers Set Weights and Penalties 2394m

DOUBLE YOU TEE (1) doesn’t have great numerical form but gets back to a Vobis race that looks a lot easier than what he has been racing. Three starts back he was second behind Harbour Views, he was ok at Flemington on the bigger track last time from the back. He was an impressive winner here at Caulfield back in the Spring, he looks one of the best of the day.

Dangers:

MAHAMEDEIS (2) has been given two trials to keep fresh for this with a month between runs. A little worrying that the bar plates go on, he will need this a genuinely run race but probably drifts in the betting. REZELIANT (6) has been poorly away at his last couple, the barrier blanket gets applied which may assist. He went north to an easier race at Newcastle and bolted in, he looks up to this. SASKO (3) has been up for a while, he won two in a row earlier this prep and should lead for a long way.

Race 9: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1400m

WICKLOW TOWN (3) won three in a row before coming here last start and being beaten almost three lengths in a race we can line-up the form. He over-raced and layed in up the straight, he was one of the best from the back in a race that favoured those up on the speed.

Dangers:

MYSTERY SHOT (1) can certainly win but I am happy to be against him at the price. He is undefeated after four starts, including last start winning by 2.5 lengths over the top pick, and others. He will be making his own luck up on the speed but was favoured the way the race was run last time. Can he sit parked again and win, happy to lay him at the price to find out. RECKONING (4) needs to be more consistent, gets a big jockey change with Willow jumping on and should settle mid-field. LAKE’S FOLLY (9) draws out and will get back, if the favourite cops (or applies the) pressure up front, he should be getting home hard.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Wednesday July 22
Wednesday @ Sandown :

Track: Soft 7. Rail: Out 12m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 1 – MELBA STORM
Race 1: MELBA STORM (7) from 1, 2 and 4.
Race 2: PISCATORIAL (5) from 1, 2 and 3.
Race 3: SHEVROLET (6) from 3, 2 and 1.
Race 4: FRONDEUR (6) from 1, 7 and 9.
Race 5: BLANDFORD LAD (9) from 11, 2 and 1.
Race 6: TRIPLE STRIP (11) from 4, 8 and 3.
Race 7: MRS O’MALLEY (7) from 6, 2 and 10.
Race 8: ELITE LEGACY (8) from 5, 4 and 1.

===

Race 1: 2YO Handicap 1300m

MELBA STORM (7) was on debut on the heavy track at Echuca and was very heavily backed into favourite. She settled close to the speed and loomed up to win before getting run down late. The form looks good out of that race with the third horse across the line coming out and winning since.

Dangers:

MCCAIN (1) was the winner of that race, he ran past the top pick at a bigger SP and does have to carry the extra weight here. It was a nice win but who has the more improvement in them? BIG DAY OUT (2) missed a place for the first time in his 7-start career last start, he showed speed in previous races north of the border. REUBER (4) was big odds in an easier maiden at Moe on debut, he got back on the heavy track but was put straight in the blackbook following a nice run home after being held-up early in the straight.

Race 2: 2YO Handicap 1000m

PISCATORIAL (5) won on debut at Bendigo, she got back in the run and stormed home for a dominant win at big odds. The margin was less than half a length with a couple of lengths back to third. She sticks at the 1000m, look for her late.

Dangers:

AQUAGIRL (1) won up the straight two starts back before a fair effort there at Listed level. She resumes off a 20-week break, she will be on the speed for a long way. DIAMONDESQUE (2) is also first-up, she performed fairly in black-type juvenile races before going to the paddock. Snowden horses can show plenty of improvement off their first prep. Watch for any money for debutant HYDRO STAR (3) for the John McArdle stable.

Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1000m

SHEVROLET (6) was sent straight to the paddock off a Moonee Valley win back in February through the night racing season. He was very well backed into an SP of $2.80, he showed tactical speed and the form out of the race has held-up well. Watch for any significant moves for him fresh.

Dangers:

BRAZEN BRANDO (3) bolted in on the synthetic track when resuming last campaign, he was fair in a harder race at Caulfield following that. He has only had short preps, another where the betting will tell us more. BASTYAN (2) has good speed, he led throughout at the Valley last start and will be hard to catch again if he can land on the bunny with the claim. HARD PRESS (1) won two in a row before well beaten behind the talented How Womantic prior to going to the paddock. He resumes for a new yard and after the big operation, gelded.

Race 4: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1300m

FRONDEUR (6) won back-to-back races to start her career, she was ok in a G3 race before going to the paddock. Like Hard Press in the previous race, she has form behind the smart How Womantic. She will get back and will need the track to be playing fairly to get over the top late.

Dangers:

REGARDSMAREE (1) has been up for a while but is yet to win this time in. He gets a couple of gear changes and hopefully settles a little better. The wide draw is a concern, he will need cover. JUST FOLK (7) was a winner on debut at Echuca on the heavy track, he ran on hard and will appreciate the extra trip. This is obviously harder but deserves his chance off that good closing win. WAIRERE FALLS (9) resumed with a maiden win at career start number three, another that will get back, he will probably need to get in front of the top pick in the run home.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 2400m

BLANDFORD LAD (9) may have turned the corner off a last start win at Bendigo. He had only been racing fairly prior to turning it all around last time, he will be giving them a start and finishing hard. He showed the good turn-of-foot he has when saved for one run, look for him late.

Dangers:

Tough race. WRISTBAND (11) ran on well to win an easier race last time at Sale, he gets the blinkers off for the first time and maps well. A little wary of him coming out of maiden grade after it took him 19 starts to break the duck, the win was impressive though. METEOR LIGHT (2) has been on the heavy track at all five runs this campaign, he has good tactical speed and looks the leader, he does jump up in weight off that last start win but gets a claim. SHEPARD (1) was a winner at his first run back in the Moody stable, his two runs since have only been fair in harder grade, he will appreciate being back at this level.

Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1800m

TRIPLE STRIP (11) has had two starts since being with the P Payne stable, she had no luck when first-up at Flemington on the soft track. She then went to to Caufield and was wide without cover and never really got into the race off a tough run. I expect her to be a huge improver third-up for the stable and only needs even luck in the run, she looks a great each-way bet.

Dangers:

HEAVENLY EMPEROR (4) has improved at each-run this time in, he worked early to get up on the speed and was still too string late at Caulfield. The wide draw is a concern as the spot outside the leader looks his again, can he step up to this grade and win from there? THE BLACK LEOPARD (8) is drawn well and should lead for a long way, he wasn’t officially first-up but was off a 7-week break so will have taken plenty off that run. TAVIRUN (3) will be another looking for the top, his chances will rely on if he has to face the breeze or not.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1600m

MRS O’MALLEY (7) has been up for a while and yet to win this time in but her foot is firmly on the till. Last start here on the Lakeside track against the girls, she was very heavily backed late and almost started favourite. After only being fairly away, she was a mile back and ran on hard with the winner, she had her chance late but there was a big gap to third.

Dangers:

SO YOU SWING (6) has the inside gate, she will need luck as she will get back in the run. She will get a cheap run, if she can return to the form she showed last prep after getting deeper in her prep, she will be hard to hold out. MOSCOW RED (2) is very consistent, a good effort considering her style of racing. She was mid-field and held-up early in the straight last time before working home well. AWAY CRUISING (10) will find this harder than her last start heavy track win at Moe. She gets in well with the claim.

Race 8: BM78 Handicap 1000m

ELITE LEGACY (8) has the wide draw but will be looking to carve over and take up the running. He resumed at Sandown and was very well backed but narrowly beaten, he then went to Sale and again led on the rails and was taken on, stuck on well after getting the front again and won after being well backed.

Dangers:

IKNEWSHEWASMINE (5) won three in a row late in her last prep, she resumes today at a track she is undefeated at. She will go forward and look for the top. NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (4) is freshened up off a 6-week break, he had a torrid run in transit last time four-wide and facing the breeze. KALASHANI LAD (1) was well backed and got the chocolates here on the Lakeside last time. He was strong through the line over 6 furlongs but does come back in trip here.

Melbourne Racing Tips –  Flemington July 18
Wednesday @ Flemington:

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 4m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – PROPER ROGUE
Race 1: ASHLOR (1) from 3, 2 and 6.
Race 2: PROPER ROGUE (4) from 7, 1 and 10.
Race 3: ALCYONE (1) from 10, 4 and 5.
Race 4: ZABELARINA (4) from 1, 9 and 6.
Race 5: SWEET THOMAS (3) from 4, 7 and 9.
Race 6: SMOKIN’ ROMANS (6) from 9, 1 and 3.
Race 7: SIRCCONI (1) from 6, 10 and 3.
Race 8: DOUBLE YOU TEE (5) from 9, 3 and 2.
Race 9: OUR WIND SPIRIT (8) from 11, 17 and 12.

===

Race 1: BM90 Handicap 1000m

ASHLOR (1) was a winner at the Valley two starts back, he has good speed but can tend to over-race up on the pace. He had a month off following that break, went to Caulfield and was beaten a couple of lengths by noted wet-tracker Jungle Edge. He gets the huge weight but a good claim and is well drawn.

Dangers:

GEE GEE SECONDROWER (3) is an interesting runner resuming, he has a phenomenal record over on the apple Isle but faced a tough task here. He is likely to be giving them a start but deserves his crack on the mainland. SNITZCRAFT (2) drops back from an ordinary effort in a harder race on Finals Day here, he has been up for a while and doesn’t have a great record here, but his best is good enough. MISTER MOGUL (6) led all the way at huge odds here at his first go up the straight last time, this is harder.

Race 2: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1200m

PROPER ROGUE (4) was a winner at his only start up the straight here, that was in a BM64 grade race before going to the paddock. He resumed at Caulfield three weeks ago and although beaten, his run was full of merit. He was held-up for most of the straight before getting out late and running on well into second. It was a great effort to get so close, considering he was also back on the inside, the worst part of the track.

Dangers:

CALYPSO REIGN (7) is a last start age group winner across the border in SA in an easier race than this, he has good closing speed and will be finishing hard. He is having his first go up the straight. SANSOM (1) Is very consistent and has only missed a place once over his last two campaigns. He has been runner-up at both runs this time in, a minor gear change and a claim can see him go one better. SEA DRAGON (10) is resuming after being gelded, he will find this a tough ask as he is yet to win out of maiden grade. The inside draw should ensure he gets a soft run in transit.

Race 3: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1800m

ALCYONE (1) has placed at two of his three starts, always hard to be confident with the babies running this trip at their first attempt though. Last start here on Finals Day over the mile, he just looked to peak after making a long run to take the lead, only to be nabbed over the last 100m. I like the way he stuck on over the last 50m, saved for one run again, he looks hard to beat.

Dangers:

STAR OF LEON (10) showed improvement at start three, he ran on hard over the 1400m to place despite laying in. He looks one of the 2YO’s that looks suited getting up to the 1800m. Willow takes the ride. MR WOLF (4) won on debut then looked to have every chance over 7 furlongs in a much easier race across the border. Olly gets the ride though, that’s a huge tick. CONFRONTATIONAL (5) has placed at all three runs, he is on the quick back-up from Caulfield last week where he did a bit wrong in the run home. He maps to get a soft run stepping up in trip.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM90 Handicap 1400m

ZABELARINA (4) is a first-up specialist that is having her third run from a spell, she won again fresh before running on well at Caulfield. She was against the pattern that day and did well to make ground, drawn beautifully I expect her to be on the speed and hard to run down.

Dangers:

LABURNUM (1) was only fair when resuming in Sydney on the heavy track, he didn’t have much luck at Caulfield three weeks ago before hitting the line well over the last furlong. MAXIMAK (9) is a last start winner on the Lakeside at Sandown, he is a back-marker with the claiming apprentice, not sure that’s a great recipe around the tricky 1400m circuit. SHE’S ON TIME (6) is resuming, she has won two of four when fresh previously. She will be mid-field in the run and is undefeated in both runs over the 7 furlongs.

Race 5: Handicap 2800m

SWEET THOMAS (3) could not have been more impressive winning at Rosehill over the two miles three weeks ago, after settling mid-field, he angled into the clear and ran on hard to find the front inside the furlong and run away for a dominant win. He certainly looked better ridden quietly.

Dangers:

ALFARRIS (4) placed here last start on Finals Day, beaten the smallest possible margin after sitting up on the speed. He took over early in the straight and kicked hard until getting run down late. SIN TO WIN (7) will run his usual honest race, he will get back and run on. CRIMSON ACE (9) handles the wet tracks well, he charged home at Sandown over the mile and a half, he will need to be saved for one run. If he gets the back of the right horse in the run home, he looks a great place chance and is a must for all exotics.

Race 6: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1600m

I found this the toughest race of the day. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (6) is undefeated after two starts, both of them on the synthetic track. He settled mid-field before winning by almost four on debut then was at Ballarat last time and ran on over the top again from a mile back. This is harder and he needs to convert that form from the synthetic to the grass, it will take a John Allen gem.

Dangers:

STRETTO (9) is yet to win out of maiden grade, he wasn’t beaten far here two weeks ago in what has proven a good form reference. Not sure about the jockey change though…RIGHT YOU ARE (1) won three in a row including the first two since resuming this time in, he stormed home to be beaten narrowly here at the track a month ago. Look for him late. ALPHAVILLE (3) was beaten 4 lengths last start but never got a crack at them, the second horse out of that race has come out and won by as far as you can kick your hat on Wednesday.

Race 7: Handicap 1600m

SIRCCONI (1) was a winner here in the Winter Champs final last start, not just any win either. He was just behind the speed before angling around them and taking the lead before taking the lead, he kicked at the clock tower and was strong through the line by 4. The draw doesn’t do any favours and will take a godo ride, if he does get cover he will be hard to hold out again.

Dangers:

AL GALAYEL (6) hasn’t won in 80 weeks, his two runs back have been very plain but gets tow big changes. The blinkers go back on and Willow replaces Harry Grace. Expect him to be a big improver. FRANCE’S BOY (10) has good tactical speed and looks the leader, he won two in a row before struggling on the heavy track. Back on a better surface he can return to form. ORDEROFTHEGARTER (3) is an interesting runner, the former import had one in Australia for the Lloyd Williams team, now trained by Melbourne Cup winner Danny O’Brien. He hasn’t raced in more than 2 years, it would be an enormous training performance.

Race 8: Handicap 2000m

DOUBLE YOU TEE (5) goes on top in what looks a very open race. He wasn’t beaten far behind the smart Harbour Views two starts back, last time at Caulfield he hit a flat spot before finding the line well against the tempo on what may have been the worst part of the track.

Dangers:

Those playing the Quadrella should go very wide. BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (9) is an import that has been in Australia for 2 runs, his win at Sandown on the speed last time was impressive. He will benefit if the track stays wet. SALSAMOR (3) has been up for a while, he won four in a row earlier in the campaign and has versatility. He was back up on the speed and not beaten far behind Sirrcconi last time, see how the form holds up as he goes around the race prior. PLEIN CIEL (2) doesn’t have a great record here at Flemington, Olly takes the ride in what is a very positive jockey change.

Race 9: BM78 Handicap 1200m

OUR WIND SPIRIT (8) comes into this off four consecutive wins, he is up in grade but deserves his crack at this. HIs last two wins have been brilliant, one on the synthetic and one on the turf, both sitting three-wide without cover throughout. As always with the Lindsey Smith yard, if they back em, double your bet! It may be best to wait until late as the opposite is also (usually) true, if they are out the gate in the betting, they rarely win.

Dangers:

ORLEANS ROCK (11) will have to improve on his poor first-up record but I like that he is drawn out under the arches, it may be the best part of the straight by this time of the day. He will be charging home late. PINYIN (17) has placed at two runs here at HQ, drawn in the middle of the line, she will be giving them a start. SAKURA (12) won back-to-back races to end her last campaign but has failed to fire this time in. Drawn wide, she may benefit from Allen riding as he is likely to ride her very “conservatively”.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Cranbourne July 15
Wednesday @ Cranbourne:

Track: Soft 7. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 4 – BOOMSTOCK
Race 1: BOMBAY ROCKET (8) from 2, 1 and 11.
Race 2: GLASSEY MISS (7) from 1, 8 and 5.
Race 3: LUNAR FLARE (3) from 4, 1 and 8.
Race 4: BOOMSTOCK (4) from 1, 6 and 5.
Race 5: DIODE (3) from 11, 14 and 2.
Race 6: HARLEM BLUES (12) from 7, 9 and 1.
Race 7: DEEP EUPHORIA (3) from 13, 10 and 4.
Race 8: GRINZINGER ALLEE (2) from 5, 12 and 13

===

Race 1: 2YO Maiden Plate 1000m

Tough race to start the day. BOMBAY ROCKET (8) placed at two of her first four starts, she had shown good natural speed at her first three starts before going to the paddock. Expect improvement from this yard coming back for her second campaign.

Dangers:

FREDERICK THE DANE (2) debuted back early in yteh year, he placed at one of two and both of those starts were in black-type races. He has been gelded in the time off and will no doubt have supporters. DIESEL ‘N’ DUST (1) has placed at two of five, both of them on rain affected tracks. Last time at Echuca on the heavy he led for a long way before getting run down late. He gets the blinkers back off. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular the Maher/Eustace trained KIANI (11).

Race 2: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1400m

GLASSEY MISS (7) was a scratching from Murtoa on Monday where she looked a good thing, she has also nominated for Geelong on Friday and in town on Saturday, if she doesn’t go around here, look for her later in the week. She was a good winner of an easier race at Donald two back then raced flat on the heavy track last time. Back on a better surface should see her improve.

Dangers:

CUPID’S BOW (1) is very consistent, she has placed her last three across the border in SA. She gets the blinkers off for the first time and usually gives them a start, she will need everything to go right. GIVE ME TEN (8) was an impressive winner on debut then was sent straight to the paddock. Her three efforts this time in have only been fair, a return to what showed at start one would see her competitive. ECHO BOOMER (5) never runs a bad race, she has not won out of maiden grade but has never missed a place in her 10-start career. Another that will get back, she needs the right tempo.

Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2025m

LUNAR FLARE (3) raced on the synthetic at her first two runs resuming, she then went to Sandown in this grade last time and after getting back in the run, ran through the line strong. Olly sticks with the ride, not sure she should be as short as she is currently, she does look hard to beat.

Dangers:

UNSETTLING (4) won an easier BM64 two starts back, she was wide without cover throughout and was brave to still be in the finish. Last start she featured in eth steward’s report with a respiratory issue, happy to forgive that run. TYSONIC (1) didn’t have much at luck at Donald resuming then placed in a similar race last time after being held-up at a vital stage. She is a must for all exotics bets, with even luck she should be running a place. JOHANDOUGH (8) drops back to a more suitable race after being outclassed in town at the last couple. She was ok in an on-pace dominated race last time, any improvement in track condition wouldn’t hurt.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1600m

BOOMSTOCK (4) looks the best of the day, he had been racing well before a much deserved win here at the track last start, he has a great record here. In an easier BM64, he was solid at the top of betting, got well back in the run before charging over the top for a soft win. Sticks at the mile, soft run from the inside gate, with even luck he will be winning again at his favourite track.

Dangers:

PARLIAMENT (1) won back-to-back races at Wagga, he had five weeks between runs before a poor run at Caulfield in harder grade than this. He maps to get a softer run from the good draw. BRIMM (6) should be up on the speed, she kicked well after sitting parked last time and just found one better. She will have the tactical advantage over the top pick but would need to get to the rails first. REFORMIST (5) is an interesting runner having his first start for the Archie Alexander stable, his form for Waller in NSW was patchy. Watch the betting with him.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1400m

DIODE (3) resumed off a 19-week break at Geelong last start, he showed good speed in a race no harder than this and was only run down late. He was very consistent through the back-end of last prep and expect him to only improve off that fresh run. Stepping up in trip and drawn well, he will be hard to run down.

Dangers:

WAIRERE FALLS (11) will find this harder than his last start maiden win, although the winning margin was small, there was a lot to like about the run and it was a gap job to third. He will get back and charge late. SUNSET EAGLE (14) can be excused for her last start failure, she was beaten out of sight but was stuck off the track without cover throughout. Expect her to improve. DEADLY SINS (2) has the wide draw to deal with, she got too far back when resuming and I expect them to try and ride him on the speed here.

Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1200m

HARLEM BLUES (12) is a last start maiden winner, he sat up on the speed and charged clear when asked the question. The margins were almost three lengths with another two and a half back to third, he just needs to take that synthetic form to the turf taking on the older horses here.

Dangers:

OXLEY JACK (7) is very consistent, he will also be up on the speed and the key to him winning may be keeping the top pick on his outside and in front of him in the run? THE GREAT HANS (9) is resuming off a long break, he was sent to the paddock off an impressive albeit narrow maiden win. He was held-up at a vital stage before charging over the top late. UNSHACKLED (1) has been up for a while, he won last start at Wangaratta in an easier race. He stormed home from a mile back on the wet track, look for him late.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m

DEEP EUPHORIA (3) is an enigma, she has put in some brilliant runs (without winning) this campaign and also put in a couple of howlers. Two starts back at Mornington, she was held-up for half the straight before getting out late and charging, then last start at Sandown was a socker in a harder race. She can win this at her best.

Dangers:

LING LING (13) own her maiden against the girls then led but was probably in the wrong part of the track at her first go out of that grade. Look for any money for her resuming. SALTY KISSES (10) has placed at all three runs this campaign, she should be just off the speed in the run. BOMBSHELL BELLE (4) didn’t seem to handle the heavy track last time, she will be on the sped and likely to improve.

Race 8: BM64 Handicap 2025m

GRINZINGER ALLEE (2) gets a huge drop in grade into this, he was at Flemington on Finals Day last start and was well backed to SP at $5. He was held-up early in the straight, got close at the clocktower but just found one better. He will get back and flash home in this easier assignment.

Dangers:

MAGAZINE (5) looks the logical and only danger. He is also a back-marker, his last start win at Wangaratta was impressive on the wet track but unlike the top pick, she goes the other way and is up in grade. UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK (12) is a little one-paced but gets a very positive jockey change with Olly taking over. GENERAL BORDEAUX (13) is also drawn out wide and will find it tough from there. Hard to see one of the top two picks not getting the cash.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Caulfield July 11
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 1 – THE FELON
Race 1: THE FELON (1) from 3, 5 and 2.
Race 2: SWORD OF MERCY (9) from 1, 3 and 6.
Race 3: STRATEGIC PHIL (2) from 1, 11 and 18.
Race 4: MORRISSY (5) from 6, 3 and 8.
Race 5: ALBURQ (1) from 6, 2 and 4.
Race 6: THOUGHT OF THAT (1) from 2, 3 and 7.
Race 7: JUNGLE EDGE (1) from 2, 3 and 6.
Race 8: SIZZLEFLY (1) from 2, 15 and 4
Race 9: DOGMATIC (11) from 14, 6 and 3

===

Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1400m

THE FELON (1) was on debut on the synthetic track at Pakenham three weeks ago, he was solid in the betting and started favourite and didn’t let his backers down. After settling behind the speed, he angled three-wide and ran on hard for a soft win. Hard to know if that synthetic form will stand up in this grade but it was hard not to be impressed.

Dangers:

EFFLORESCENCE (3) is another last start synthetic winner, he hadn’t shown much at his first two starts but showed more speed last time, leading all the way. CONFRONTATIONAL (5) has placed at both career starts, the best of those was probably on debut as he appeared to have very chance last time and was ridden up a long way from home. WUNAMBAL (2) comes through the same race as him on debut, then found a liking for the heavy track at Moe last time where he led all the way. This is obviously harder and will probably take a sit from the inside draw.

Race 2: Mares BM90 Handicap 1100m

SWORD OF MERCY (9) has won three in a row including two this time in. She was beautifully ridden at Bendigo just off the speed when scoring easily then went to Sandown on the Hillside and got further back near last in the run before storming home to score. She has versatility, will find this harder but deserves her chance in Saturday grade.

Dangers:

ALL OVER BOSSANOVA (1) gets the blinkers for the first time at career start 27, she was off the track and well beaten in much harder grade last start. Drawn well, good claim and classy kid riding, expect her to improve. OUR CAMPANA (3) is having her first run for the Peter Moody stable. She won two in a row last campaign including one here at the track, she will need to improve on her first-up record though. PROPELLE (6) was ok at big odds against the boys last start running on well enough in what may have been the inferior ground. Blinkers off and back against her own sex can see her improve.

Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1400m

This could be the toughest race of the day, a lot will depend on what/if any horses come out as the emergencies will play a role. STRATEGIC PHIL (2) handles the wet tracks well, he was a winner on the heavy two back before doing work at the Valley and sticking on well for second last time. He draws well and should be close to the speed again. SONAREE (1) sat parked in the breeze to score at Mornington then led for a long way here in tougher grade. He gets the big weight but a 2kg claim for Teo Nugent. WILDE GEM (11) was enormous winning an easier race at Sandown, he was forced to sit wide on the speed without cover and was still doing best through the line off the torrid run. Harder here though and may have to sit parked again. If TAVIDANCE (18) gets a run as the second reserve he comes right into calculations.

Race 4: Handicap 1400m

MORRISSY (5) was off a 6-week break when narrowly beaten at the Valley, he then came here last time and was strong after sitting outside the speed to go clear late and score. He is a two-time winner here at the track, Willow sticks with the ride and will be hard to beat again if he can control the race from outside the leader again.

Dangers:

KINGS BROOK (6) ran on well against the girls to place last start in what has proven a good form reference. She hasn’t had a good time at the track previously, with the good claim and middle draw she can sit handy and improve. REFLECTIVITY (3) has not won fresh but has placed at 4 of seven when resuming. He had been racing consistently before having a torrid run at Flemington prior to going for the break. BALLET MASTER (8) was successful in a hit-and-run mission to Sydney last time, he handles the heavy tracks well and this looks no harder.

Race 5: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1400m

ALBURQ (1) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but has been very consistent. Last time at Flemington up the straight at Listed level he ran on hard from well back but may have just peaked late. This looks easier and may be better suited back around a bend.

Dangers:

SCORPIUS (6) gets a good claim, he has placed at two of three this campaign including last start after working early to get outside the speed. He took over in the straight but was run down late at what was his best run here at Caulfield. MYSTERY SHOT (2) is undefeated after three starts, he stepped up in class last time here at the track and was impressive after making a long run. This is obviously harder and not sure where he gets to from the draw. WICKLOW TOWN (4) looks to have come back a new horse this campaign. After failing to place at his first four starts, he has won three in a row since resuming and looks to be going through the grades nicely.

Race 6: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2000m

THOUGHT OF THAT (1) last saluted here at Caulfield in the Spring, his two runs last campaign were poor but showed he may have come back better this time in. He resumed over a mile here two weeks ago, led for a long way before getting run down late after peaking first-up. Look for him carving over early and looking for the top.

Dangers:

RIGHT YOU ARE (2) is poorly drawn but will get back in the run anyway, he is yet to miss a place in 6 career runs and looks a future star. He has very good closing speed but just a little worried that Olly may get caught up in a game of cat and mouse back in the field. GRAND DE FLORA (3) is flying and will also get back, Willow sticks with the ride off back-to-back wins. Harder here up in grade and back against the boys. CARNAMAH (7) is only lightly raced, he was a maiden winner on the synthetic track last two weeks ago at a very short price. Harder here but he draws to get a soft run.

Race 7: Sir John Monash Stakes WFA 1100m

JUNGLE EDGE (1) is an old marvel and we know what we will get with him. He wants it wet, all of his 18 career wins have been on rain-affected tracks. He has good speed, will go forward and try to lead all the way. He looks better suited here back in WFA grade, not many would begrudge him another win (he isnt getting any younger).

Dangers:

VIRIDINE (2) is well travelled, he returned to the winners list last start in Sydney after a gun ride, Olly takes over today and he maps beautifully from the good gate.  I imagine Olly will have him camped right behind the leaders. ASHLOR (3) has good tactical speed, he will be looking for a spot on the speed but can tend to over-race. He won’t want to get pulling early. I AM SOMEONE (6) beat home Prezado up the straight two starts back (not many can say that), he has placed at both runs here at Caulfield.

Race 8: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1100m

SIZZLEFLY (1) won two in a row when resuming from a spell, she then ran on well at Listed grade and last time never got into the race from a mile back in Adelaide at G2 level. This looks easier and although she has the big weight, gets a claim and should be finishing hard.

Dangers:

FLOSTAR (2) also won back-to-back races earlier in the campaign, she was brave in defeat across the border last time when three-wide without cover for a most of the race and only getting run down late. LITTLE STEVIE (15) had no luck when resuming here a fortnight ago, drawn well and Willow sticks with the ride. BLESS HER (4) has won three in a row this campaign, she showed her versatility last start when getting further back in the run and charging over the top late. Tough race.

Race 9: BM84 Handicap 1700m

Tough race! Play wide if getting involved in the Quaddie. DOGMATIC (11) ran on hard resuming here at the track in a similar race a fortnight ago, he is a winner second-up previously and will get a guide as to the form out of that fresh run as the first couple across the line (Morrissy and Sonaree) go around in earlier races.

Dangers:

All of them. TRIPLE STRIP (14) is a former Tasmanian now with the Payne stable, she was very unlucky having her first run on the mainland at Flemington. She was held-up on two occasion in the run home and was never fully tested. HEAVENLEY EMPEROR (6) won an easier race here at the track last start, he likes to race on the speed so it will take a gem from the wide gate. CURRAGH (3) hasn’t won in almost a year to the day, he will be giving them a start and showed improvement when second-up. He should be fully fit for this.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Sandown July 8
Wednesday @ Sandown:

Track: Heavy 9. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – TOYETIC
Race 1: ZESTY BELLE (6) from 5, 1 and 2.
Race 2: TOYETIC (10) from 2, 12 and 13.
Race 3: REFRESHED (13) from 2, 4 and 6.
Race 4: KAMIEN (10) from 7, 6 and 2.
Race 5: FANCIFUL TOFF (2) from 9, 5 and 6.
Race 6: RUBAN BLEU (2) from 1, 3 and 7.
Race 7: ZUOBO (3) from 5, 1 and 2.
Race 8: TRIGGER POINT (5) from 7, 14 and 6.

===

Race 1: 2YO Fillies Handicap 1200m

ZESTY BELLE (6) resumed at Flemington up the straight and was beaten into third after leading, she then came here on the bigger track and was again narrowly beaten. Tough race to start the say but she looks to have plenty of upside and tactical speed.

Dangers:

ZACOUVER (5) was runner-up at Geelong after showing speed to lead, she was well ridden last time at the same track and was just beaten out of a place in a blanket finish. Drawn well on the inside and Willow taking over, she will be hard to beat. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular LOVER LOVER (1) from the Busuttin/Young stable and the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig trained filly with Olly riding, MON GYPSY (2).

Race 2: 2YO Maiden Plate 1200m

TOYETIC (10) was very heavily supported on debut at Geelong, he was black figures into red and started at $1.85 on the VOP. He was worse than mid-field in the run then held-up at the turn until the furlong pole, charged to the front when clear before being nabbed in the last stride. It was a huge gap back to third, he will take plenty from that first start.

Dangers:

CELESTIAL SOL (2) debuted at Caulfield and after opening favourite, was very easy in the betting and after having a perfect run, was only fair in the run home for third. Sent to the paddock and with a minor gear change, he can feature. YULONG ISLAND (12) showed speed on debut but was ridden mid-field when resuming, he should have all the options off the inside and don’t be surprised to see him in front here second-up. Obviously respect any of the debutants if the money comes for them, in particular, ANNAVISTO (13) for the Mick Price yard.

Race 3: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1300m

REFRESHED (13) won on debut at Wodonga, she was sent straight to the paddock and resumed at Swan Hill. She had every chance placing after a gun run, she then went to Bendigo against the girls and just seemed to peak second-up after looking the winner. She gets a huge jockey change with Olly taking over, that could be the difference.

Dangers:

DIODE (2) won two of his last four before going to the paddock, he resumed at Geelong and led for a long way before getting run down in the last stride. He gets a good claim and the inside gate, he could prove very hard to run down. HEYINGTON STATION (4) has been up for a while, he is very consistent and maps well to get the sit behind the leaders. CLIFTON HILL (6) was a winner on debut at Swan Hill a couple of weeks ago, this is harder but deserves his chance after a dominant display at start one.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1300m

KAMIEN (10) was a winner second-up last campaign, he looks to have come back well with a solid placing at Moe on the heavy track. He was mid-field when they settled before swinging very wide and coming with the winner but just not good enough. Stepping up in trip with the claim and the good draw, he can go one better.

Dangers:

SAVVY LAD (7) didn’t show much at his first two starts since transferring from NZ, he was beaten a long way but in much harder company than this. He has looked good at the jump-outs and can improve dramatically back in this grade. MEAN MISTER (6) placed at his first couple this campaign, he has good speed and can lead for a long way. If the track is favouring those on speed he looks a great each-way bet. SANTELMO FUEGO (2) handles all conditions well, he got further back when resuming and hit the line well, I expect him to be settling closer today.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 2400m

FANCIFUL TOFF (2) will be making his own luck up on the speed. Two starts back here on the Lakeside track he led and kicked clear, looked the winner but was run down late. Last time here on the bigger track he sat parked outside the lead and got the better of the inside horse but peaked on his run late. If he lands on the bunny, they will struggle to get past him.

Dangers:

METEOR LIGHT (9) rarely runs a bad race, he showed more speed to lead last start but should be looking for cover today. YULONG CAPTAIN (5) is going for three wins in a row, he ran on hard to beat a similar field her eon the bogger track last time but was big odds and carries the extra weight now. CONVERGING (6) comes through the same races as many of these, she wasn’t beaten far but did have every possible chance.

Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1200m

RUBAN BLEU (2) was BM78 Caulfield winner two starts back, he got back as is the norm for him before charging home for a soft win. He was again at Caulfield in a harder race than this last time, storming home with the best last sectionals of the race. Obviously, he needs everything to go right and the track to be playing fair, if so, look for him late.

Dangers:

MORE THAN EXCEED (1) will find this easier than his last couple of starts, he was a winner here at the track on heavy going three starts back and will probably get back in the run with the top pick. CHOISBORDER (3) has placed at back-to-back races, he settled closer las time and expect him to do so again here from the good draw with the claim. GLOBAL GIFT (7) is an interesting runner that has had one run since coming to Australia, he was only fair over 1000m and may still need further than this 6 furlongs he races at today.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1200m

ZUOBO (3) has not placed in 5 runs this campaign, but she has not been far away. She had three weeks between runs before a Caulfield BM84 against the girls last time, she came wide and chased solidly and was only beaten a length and a half. This is a huge drop in class and the jockey change is a huge positive.

Dangers:

CHEVALIER D’EON (5) ran on well last time although well beaten, she is unknown on the wet tracks having her first go on a heavy surface. Watch the betting with her. LADY LOFT (1) was only fair last start before going to the paddock, she has won two of six when resuming and will appreciate getting back on the wet track. SHE SHAO FLY (2) is coming to the races for the first time with a new trainer, she gets a couple of gear changes and will run on hard.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1600m

TRIGGER POINT (5) was a winner here on the Lakeside track two starts back under these conditions, he was good enough in a harder race at Flemington last start and gets a good claim. He will need to get cover early form the wide draw, if he does he will finish as good as any. He looks a great bet at the each-way odds

Dangers:

MOSCOW RED (7) is racing well, a win against the girls two back then was slowly away and in early trouble last start here ion the bigger track before making good ground late. Expect her to settle closer here. DENERO (14) has placed at both runs this campaign, he handled the wet track well at Moe last time when running on hard from the back. Look for him late. HAPAIRA (6) had been very consistent, although she missed a place last start for the first time this campaign, her run was good enough up on the speed. She will be making her own luck looking for the top early.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Flemington July 4
Saturday @ Flemington:

Track: Soft 5. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 5 – MILWAUKEE
Race 1: ILOVETHEGAME (2) from 6, 4 and 1.
Race 2: LORD BELVEDERE (4) from 3, 6 and 7.
Race 3: CHERRY TORTONI (1) from 11, 4 and 2.
Race 4: PERSAN (1) from 4, 2 and 11.
Race 5: MILWAUKEE (5) from 7, 9 and 3.
Race 6: LA TIGERESA (5) from 3, 8 and 4.
Race 7: OVER THE SKY (14) from 8, 5 and 2.
Race 8: NEVER AGAIN (15) from 5, 2 and 8.
Race 9: CORDILLA (7) from 1, 2 and 9.

===

Race 1: 2YO Sprint Series Final 1200m

ILOVETHEGAME (2) won his debut at Sandown after leading all the way. Obviously, a different beast having his first go here up the straight, but he was well backed, and it was a professional win.

Dangers:

SENSE OF HONOUR (6) destroyed her rivals on debut before going to the break, she was a real eye-catcher resuming at the Valley after getting a mile back and storming home late. THE FELON (4) is undefeated after a debut win on the synthetic track, he was beautifully ridden and just needs to transfer that form to the turf. JABALI RIDGE (1) gets the blinkers for the first time, he will be giving them a start and has the advantage of a win here up the straight previously.

Race 2: Banjo Paterson Final 2600m

LORD BELVEDERE (4) is undefeated at two starts here at the track, eh wasn’t officially first-up last start but had been 7-weeks between runs. He settled well back and ran on hard and although the winning margin was less than a length, he was strong through the line. Look for him late.

Dangers:

CHAPADA (3) is another that races well here at the track, he was runner-up to the top pick here last time. He made an early move and may have just hit the front too early before getting run down. The margin to third was noticeable. SASKO (6) looks the leader, he had to work hard last time to get the front and was headed early in the straight. He should give a better fight if able to get a soft lead. SIN TO WIN (7) always run an honest race, he grinded home well in eth lead-up but appeared to have every chance.

Race 3: Taj Rossi Final 2YO 1600m

CHERRY TORTONI (1) is looking to stay undefeated after winning two in a row to start his career. He won at sale on debut then was a dominant winner after casting a plate here at the track last time. Stepping out to the mile looks ideal, he was strong through the line over 7 furlongs last time.

Dangers:

TOYZ ON FIRE (11) won a Wangaratta maiden on debut, she was a real eye-catcher last time at Sandown running on hard on a day when it was favourable to be closer to the speed. CONFRONTATIONAL (4) has placed at both career runs, he was well backed when getting out to the mile last start but appeared to have his chance. NARVAEZ (2) gets the blinkers for the first time, he has raced closer at his last couple and will be trying to find the front early.

Race 4: Mahogany Challenge Final 3YO 2500m

PERSAN (1) has won back-to-back races here at the track, both starts he has been beautifully ridden just behind the speed and found the front early in eth straight. He maps well again and just needs to be saved for that one run.

Dangers:

SIGN SEAL DELIVER (4) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, he has enough speed to lead and handles the conditions well. He stuck on well after being headed last time, Olly probably doesn’t want to turn it into a sit-sprint. TRANSLATOR (2) gets the blinkers on again, he was poor here last start after getting too far back, hopefully the gear change keeps him a little sharper at the back-end. THINK HE MEI (11) is still a maiden after 5 starts, he is having his fourth start with the new yard and has been going well in easier races.

Race 5: VIC Sprint Series Final 1200m

MILWAUKEE (5) loves it here up the straight, although he has not won at his last four runs here all this prep, he has had excuses. Last start here he was mid-field and looked to have plenty to offer before being steadied and wasn’t tested over the concluding stages. Inside barrier a ???

Dangers:

TAVISAN (7) looks the leader and may be better suited around a bend but if he gets a soft lead and is able to roll from the 600m mark, he will be hard to run down. LORD VON COSTA (9) will be giving them a start, he was black-booked last start here when flashing from the back. Willow sticks with the ride and looks great value at double-figure odds. RICH CHARM (3) probably wants a firmer track, he was good on the heavy here two starts back and may be finding his best again.

Race 6: Leilani Series Final 1400m

LA TIGERESA (5) has two eights’ next to her name since resuming from the paddock, forget that, she has been good and should have finished much closer at both of them. Resuming here at the track, she was running on hard but was held-up for a furlong, then went to the Valley and again hit a road block from before the straight until the 100m mark.

Dangers:

KINGS BROOK (3) was good here last time but I would be wary of the form out of the race she was in two back. She is drawn well and should get every chance. RIVER JEWEL (8) hasn’t won in a while but rarely runs a bad race, she will be looking for the top early. Always an advantage to be on the rail here from the 1400m start. SNOGGING (4) was huge in defeat at her latest, she was poorly away and stuck off the track throughout without cover and was only beaten just under a length.

Race 7: Silver Bowl Series Final 1600m

This looks the toughest race of the day. OVER THE SKY (14) was very short in the betting when getting his maiden win last start at his second trip to the races, hopefully with the blinkers on he is sent forward early. ZOUNIQUE (8) is yet to run a bad race in his career, he will be giving them a start but looks suited here on the big track at his first look. ALPHAVILLE (5) was a synthetic track winner two starts back then had no luck at the Valley last time, held-up for a furlong before running on hard along the rails. SMOKE BOMB (2) has won three of four this time in, he has good speed and will try to led but it’s a lot harder to go wire to wire here at Flemington.

Race 8: Winter Championship Final 1600m

NEVER AGAIN (15) has placed at two of three here at the track, he is yet to win this time in but races well here. Last time he was slowly away and was worse than mid-field in the run, after getting to the crown of the track he ran on hard to just miss a place. Olly sticks with the ride and hopefully can settle closer from the good draw.

Dangers:

PLEIN CIEL (5) doesn’t have a great record here at the track, he hit the line well to share the major prizemoney last time at the Valley. If he can bring that form to the bigger track he is a chance. HEPTAGON (2) is flying, A win at Caulfield, a Swan Hill Cup and here last time in a race against many of these. SHOT OF IRISH (8) dead-heated with Plein Ciel last time, he has not finished further back than second at his last four starts.. If he leads he will be hard to run down, happy to risk him assuming that he will have to work and may not get to the rail.

Race 9: Rivette Series Final 3YO Fillies 1400m

CORDILLA (7) is having her fifth career start, she has a win and two placings to her name and has versatility. She led on debut and at three runs since has settled a lot further back, that looks the best option from the wide gate. The big field should ensure a good tempo, if she can get cover from the draw, she will finish as good as any.

Dangers:

SPLENDORONTHEGRASS (1) is another that can go forward or back, she did a stack of working wining at Sandown recently when off the track without cover. BEAUTY BOLT (2) charged home along the rails in a similar race to this against the girls last time, she was back in trip off a SA Oaks run prior to that. Look for her late. QUANTUM MECHANIC (9) has been very consistent this prep, with the blinkers on for the first time expect her to push forward and be on the speed early.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday June 27
Saturday @ Caulfield:

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 12m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 7 – SANSOM
Race 1: TOLKOWSKY (2) from 12, 1 and 4.
Race 2: KAPLUMPICH (2) from 7, 6 and 5.
Race 3: MYSTERY SHOT (7) from 12, 2 and 4.
Race 4: RIVER JEWEL (7) from 8, 9 and 1.
Race 5: MERITED (3) from 4, 5 and 8.
Race 6: PROPER ROGUE (9) from 5, 1 and 3.
Race 7: SANSOM (3) from 7, 9 and 12.
Race 8: HARBOUR VIEWS (4) from 9, 3 and 10.
Race 9: SONAREE (10) from 2, 13 and 4.

===

Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1100m

TOLKOWSKY (2) is a Godolphin filly that went to Sale as a $6.50 chance on debut, after racing keen mid-race and being hampered inside the final furlong, he drove hard late to score narrowly. This is harder but there was a lot to like about the win, just needs cover form the wide gate.

Dangers:

CLEAN MACHINE (12) has only been to the races once, she was huge odds in a Blue Diamond prelude making ground late to finish mid-field. This is a lot easier and has been good at the jump-outs. EUPHORIC SUMMER (1) was sent north for the Magic Millions but was never in the race, she looked to have every chance at Mornington resuming after racing up on the speed. She will be better for the run. YULONG ISLAND (4) had his debut at the Valley back in the night racing season, showed plenty of speed and could be the leader here first-up.

Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1600m

KAPLUMPICH (2) is yet to win in five starts this campaign but he has been racing consistently. He placed in back-to-back races at Caulfield then went to the Valley and although well beaten, he was brave in defeat after sitting off the track without cover throughout. He looks better suited back here and should hit the line hard.

Dangers:

I COULD DO BETTER (7) is a Waller import that has only had one start here in Australia. He was away from the track for 37 weeks before resuming at Flemington, he over-raced, was parked wide without cover and stuck on well. Olly sticks with the ride and how often do we see these Waller runners improve second-up. NO SAY IN IT (6) is another former northern hemisphere galloper that is yet to win in Oz, he has placed at two of three and will find this easier than last start. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (5) is drawn off the track but will go forward, if he can get cover just off the speed, he should make his presence felt here third-up.

Race 3: 3YO Handicap 1440m

MYSTERY SHOT (7) is undefeated after two starts, he debuted back on New Years Eve at the Bool bolting in by 3 lengths. He then went to Ballarat and was beautifully ridden for a soft win at his first go out of that grade. This is harder again but he deserves his crack.

Dangers:

VIA CAPPO (12) has not really fired at four starts this prep, I like the way he stuck on last start after sitting up outside the speed. SELICA (2) was officially beaten 7 lengths last start at the Valley but forget she went around there. She was held-up for a furlong then was making ground in the run home before again hitting a roadblock. ARCTIC WOLF (4) gets the blinkers on for the first time, he was backed as if there was no settling last time to win his maiden and he didn’t disappoint those that invested. This is a big step up in class.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1200m

RIVER JEWEL (7) looks to have come back well, she resumed at the Valley at big odds against the girls in a similar grade of race, she led for a long way before getting run down late. She has placed at 4 of 5 when second-up and could lead them for a long way.

Dangers:

ZABELARINA (8) resumed with a synthetic track win up on the speed, she is a winner second-up previously but may have to sit parked here. If she is first across to the rails she will be hard to beat. SAKURA (9) was fair through the line when well beaten at the Valley last time, she wasn’t suited the way the race was run to be back in the field. LABURNUM (1) comes down from Sydney where she hasn’t really fired at three runs this time in. She didn’t have much room behind the in-form Adelong last time, she can improve getting off the heavy track.

Race 5: 3YO Fillies Handicap 1200m

MERITED (3) won her first two starts then was put out to the paddock, she is yet to fire at four runs this time in but I like the way she stuck on up the straight last time. She has good speed, Melham will be charging over from out wide to try and lead and with the gear changes, she will be hard to run down if first across to the rails.

Dangers:

FELICIA (4) gets an enormous jockey change with Willow replacing Zahra, she has been good placing at her last couple but the map looks a little sticky. If the top pick has to sit off the rails and Felicia can get the cover, she should be strong late. Don’t want to be on her if she is the one face the breeze. NIGHT EXPRESS (5) is 6 weeks between runs, she gets the blinkers back on and will be gunning for the front also. All three will be looking for the lead, that may bring BRAZEN SONG (8) right into play. I think she will be camped off them better than mid-field, ridden quieter with all that speed and ready to swoop.

Race 6: 3YO Handicap 1000m

PROPER ROGUE (9) has not finished further back than second at four career starts, he won both times last prep and again will be up on the speed. His two placings were on the soft track so that should be no concern, he maps beautifully from the close-in draw.

Dangers:

WILMOT PASS (5) gets the concussion plates off which is always a good thing. He is first-up with Newitt taking the ride, likely to be giving them a huge start he will need the tempo along with everything else to go right. MS CATHERINE (1) tasted defeat for the first time at the Valley when resuming, she is very quick and led for a long way, she just may have run out of condition late. Georgina Cartwright rides her well and will stick to the catch me if you can tactics? FLOSTAR (3) is going for three in a row, another speedy type that will be hunting through early from the inside draw. She may be best suited with a sit? Or will she be forced into it with all the speed coming across?

Race 7: BM84 Handicap 1100m

SANSOM (3) is already a six-time winner, he has tactical speed but doesn’t have to lead to win. He won across the border in SA before going to the paddock, resuming at the Valley he was only narrowly beaten after a perfect ride but did have every chance. The draw looks sticky but the 1100m start is not the worst, horses can sit wide and win.

Dangers:

RUBAN BLEU (7) races well here, he was here a month ago when he charged home form the back in a BM78. Up in this class should be no issue. ALFA ORO (9) is a real winner, he won back-to-back races at Pakenham before a solid win on the speed up the straight. He handles all conditions and will be looking for the top early. SAM’S IMAGE (12) gets the blinkers for the first time, not sure where he gets to from the wide draw though with the kid on. Going forward may be too tough if he has to face the breeze?

Race 8: Handicap 2000m

Sticking with HARBOUR VIEWS (4), he is still yet to miss a place in 9 career starts. He had plenty of doubters when drifting in the betting last start at the Valley, sat mid-field before easing three-wide and winning with ease. He is 1/1 here at the track and will be running on hard.

Dangers:

CREEDENCE (9) won at Flemington last start after having no luck in the run resuming, he looks to have come back well and rarely runs a bad race. He will probably be giving them a fair old start though? DOUBLE YOU TEE (3) comes through the same race as Harbour Views last time, he was beaten a couple of lengths and did have every chance. Is the weight turnaround (1.5 kg’s) enough to reverse the result? SIR PIPPIN (10) last win was here on Boxing Day, he will get back and be strong through the line if all the pieces fall into place.

Race 9: BM84 Handicap 1440m

SONAREE (10) has good speed and will go forward, the wide draw looks bad on paper but I think it gives him the perfect opportunity to get across outside the leader, a spot he is used to racing in. Last start at Mornington he was outside the speed before taking over early in the straight and kicking clear to win easily. Teo Nugent sticks and looks a good booking with the claim.

Dangers:

INN KEEPER (2) is a bit of a non-winner of late, he has not won a race in more than 2 full years. He has been consistent of late though and must be thrown in all exotics, placing at his last four. He will hit the line hard. VICTORIA STAR (13) comes right into the mix if he gets a start as the first emergency. SALON DU CHEVAL (4) is first-up, he has a brilliant record when resuming winning three of four. Drawn out, he probably has no option to go back but that fresh record can’t be ignored. As always with this stable, respect any serious money for him late.

Melbourne Racing Tips – Wednesday June 24
Wednesday @ Sandown:

Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 8m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 3 – WALKING FLYING
Race 1: MISS BOSETTI (3) from 4, 7 and 11.
Race 2: THE NATURAL (3) from 6, 10 and 4.
Race 3: WALKING FLYING (2) from 1, 8 and 3.
Race 4: KEY TO THE MAK (9) from 4, 1 and 7.
Race 5: BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (3) from 4, 2 and 7.
Race 6: STELLAR IMPACT (13) from 3, 17 and 18.
Race 7: PINYIN (7) from 1, 10 and 5.
Race 8: CATARACTA (10) from 12, 3 and 1.

===

Race 1: 2YO Fillies Handicap 1000m

The bottom four (and another two emergencies) are coming to the races for the first time. Respect any money for them. It looks a very tough race on paper, MISS BOSETTI (3) is one of four last start winners, she was ok when in the market resuming up the straight then went to Mornington and was beautifully ridden to score. Willow takes the ride today,  that can only be a positive?

Dangers:

Most of them! PARLOPHONE (4) gets the blinkers off resuming, she didn’t take part on debut then was sent to the paddock off a close up second at Flemington. Another big jockey change with Olly going on. PEGGY SELENE (7) is drawn out on the car racing track, she bolted in to win leading all the way at Ballarat last time on a soft track. Will she be able to cross from out there? DIAMONDS INTHESKY (11) is a first starter for the Moody yard, looks to have some potential.

Race 2: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1000m

THE NATURAL (3) won her maiden across the border in SA at her third career start, she then went to the Valley and led for a long way against the girls at her first go out of that grade. She resumes off a 30-week break, her natural speed should see her in this for a long way.

Dangers:

FINESSE TESS (6) is also resuming, she also has good speed and will go forward, she may be better suited taking the sit around here. It is rare that the fence is off here. FLIRTING (10) finally won her maiden at career start ten last time out, she was wide and back with cover before attacking the line late to get up in the last strides. BEATRIX (4) looked to have every chance when resuming, it has proven a good form reference with a subsequent winner coming through it and she did win her maiden second-up last campaign.

Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1600m

WALKING FLYING (2) looks one of the best of the day. The Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig trained filly was brilliant winning at Sale last time, she sat back and stormed over the top in the straight to win by a widening 3.5 lengths. Hopefully she is just ridden cold again and saved for one run, she also gets a few gear changes.

Dangers:

TOORADIN (1) surely must be coming to the end of his prep, he has had six runs at his first campaign and did look a little tired at his latest. His last three have been on the heavy, he must be included in all bet types. SCANTOON (8) was poor at his first go out of maiden grade, he bounced back last time but did appear to have every chance. This is harder. MASERARTIE BAY (3) ran on well on the synthetic track resuming and looks suited getting back on the grass and out to the mile.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1500m

KEY TO THE MAK (9) has won two of four this time in, this is harder than her last start win at Wangaratta. That was in a BM64, she sat back in the field and after fanning very wide, ran on hard despite laying in for a soft win by more than 2 lengths. If the speed is genuine, look for her late.

Dangers:

TAKSU (4) was a little plain on the heavy track last start and should appreciate the improving surface today. He gets the blinkers on for the first time, don’t be surprised if he crosses and leads for a long way. That speed may just set it up for the top pick though? MOSCOW RED (1) has been up for a while but is racing very consistently, she was forced to work early to get outside the leader but stuck on well to win an easier race at Ballarat last time. STOCKTAKA (7) looked to have every chance at Ballarat three weeks ago, he also probably wants an improving track surface.

Race 5: BM84 Handicap 1800m

BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (3) is an interesting runner, the former UK trained gelding has had one start for the Maher/Eustace stable since coming to Australia. At Caulfield three weeks ago he settled mid-field before running on well to be beaten just under a length. The extra trip suits and so does Willow replacing Zahra!

Dangers:

NOBU (4) has been a little inconsistent in similar races to this, he gets the blinkers off for the first time after having a habit of over-racing previously. He did have excuses last start after being checked mid-race and pulling up lame. SAVAHEAT (2) hit the line well in a race that has been a good form reference and may have been on the inferior part of the track. RESERVE STREET (7) was beaten as favourite when going across the border into SA last start, he gets the blinkers on again and will be up on the speed for a long way.

Race 6: BM78 Handicap 2400m

STELLAR IMPACT (13) has not finished back further than second in five starts since coming over from Japan. The Gai/Bott team have really found the key to her, she bolte din against the girls on the heavy track at Cranbourne two back. She then went to Mornington and led and travelled well but was disappointing late and got run down at a very short quote. If the track is favouring leaders at all, load up.

Dangers:

SHEPARD (3) was a heavy track winner at Ballarat two starts back then sat up on the speed but faded badly at Flemington last time when beaten as favourite. He had been very consistent prior to that poor run and happy to overlook it. A lot will depend on what scratchings there are, if any. CERNAN (17) and YULONG CAPTAIN (18) both come into calculations if they get a start, they are the third and fourth emergencies respectively.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m

PINYIN (7) has not won in more than year, she resumed at Flemington up the straight a month ago and after settling worse than mid-field, was held-up before the clock tower and then ran on hard to place. She produced the best last 200m of the day in a driving finish, her record second-up is very good and has placed at both runs here. If the speed is genuine, she will be winning.

Dangers:

FLOSTAR (1) had excuses when eased down resuming, she has won back-to-back races since and couldn’t have been more impressive at Sale last time. She led and never looked like getting run down, she will be hard to beat if left alone in front. BLESS HER (10) is also going for three in a row, she should go forward and look for cover. Dunn replaces McNeil after he won two in a row? BOMBSHELL BELLE (5) has good speed, she won at Swan Hill after holding the rails on the speed and kicked clear at the furlong. Hopefully she will take a sit here, that looks her best chance.

Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1300m

This could be the toughest race of the day, those playing in the Quaddie should play wide, I really can’t find a number to leave out? CATARACTA (10) has been racing very consistently, she won at Horsham then ran on well from on the speed to place against the girls last time. She maps well again and gets the good claim. BACCHUS (12) will want an improving track, he is unplaced on all four runs on rain-affected going. He will be giving them a start but with the right conditions, will hit the line hard. FALLS (3) is resuming, he won back-to-back races before going to the paddock. He has placed at all three previous fresh runs, Olly should have him leaders back and getting the soft run. YELDARB (1) was a solid winner here on the Lakeside last time in a similar race, he gets the claim again but now has to carry 62kg!

Melbourne Racing Tips – Saturday June 20
Saturday @ Flemington:

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 11m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 2 – CHERRY TORTINI
Race 1: MAN OF PEACE (2) from 6, 2 and 8.
Race 2: CHERRY TORTINI (3) from 12, 5 and 1.
Race 3: SNOGGING (4) from 5, 2 and 12.
Race 4: COOLTH (3) from 1, 5 and 11.
Race 5: KOONUNGA (13) from 16, 17 and 6.
Race 6: ARTY LUCAS (8) from 4, 1 and 3.
Race 7: KING OF HASTINGS (1) from 5, 10 and 2.
Race 8: HAUNTED (3) from 6, 1 and 5.
Race 9: PREZADO (2)from 1, 4 and 5.

===

Race 1: BM90 Handicap Special conditions 1620m

MAN OF PEACE (3) is an interesting runner that comes down from Sydney. He won a harder race at Randwick two back leading all the way then was there again at the same track and up to the mile but didn’t run it out after finding the front. Respect this stable when they bring one south.

Dangers:

BRILLIANT CONCEPT (6) resumed nicely at the Bool over the carnival and has won back-to-back races since, he has good speed and will be looking to find the front also. The play may be to lay him if he has to face the breeze? DANON ROMAN (2) will have to improve on his poor record second-up but did show enough resuming that he can feature down in this class of race. AMMOUDI BOY (8) has been up for an eternity but still has some spring in his step winning at Ballarat last start. He should settle closer form the inside gate, the runs normally come up this long straight.

Race 2: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1420m

CHERRY TORTINI (3) looks to have a stack of ability, he was well backed late to start $4.80 on debut and ran on hard for an impressive win. The race looks a good form reference with two horses out of it going on to win easier maidens since and the horse that ran second has placed again in town. If he is mid-filed and gets cover in the run, he wins.

Dangers:

SOUTH PARADE (12) is likely to get out to double figure odds, he has been mid-field at both of his starts, he doesn’t seem to have been suited by the shorter trips at his first two and will appreciate getting out to the seven furlongs. I expect him to be a big improver. ALCYONE (5) was a real eye-catcher on debut at Ballarat, the Godolphin colt got a mile back and charged home late to just miss, stepping up in trip looks a bonus. CHEQUERBOARD (1) is undefeated after two starts, she led all the way on the synthetic against the girls to win her maiden then sat up on the speed for a mid-week win last time on a heavy track. Harder here.

Race 3: Mares BM90 Handicap 1420m

SNOGGING (4) won the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo when resuming, she was sent to SA for a crack at a couple of black type races since and wasn’t disgraced. Olly gets the ride, she looks better suited getting back to this type of race against her own sex. With versatility to sit on the speed or take a sit, Olly should have all the options early.

Dangers:

KINGS BROOK (5) has the inside draw which could be a huge advantage form the 1400m start with the rail so far out, even more so than normal. She had every chance last time in a slightly easier race, the big field will ensure the tempo is good and she gets the soft run. GREAT DUCHESS (2) is very consistent, she looked good winning a similar race when resuming at Caulfield and has placed at 2 of 3 when second-up. SO YOU SWING (12) was very consistent through the back end of last campaign, she ran on hard when resuming from a mile back showing she has come back well. She has placed at two previous second-up runs and looks a chance in an open race.

Race 4: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2000m

I was very keen on COOLTH (3) at his last start when racing here in Melbourne for the first time, and the run didn’t disappoint (although we didn’t collect). He had won his first two impressively in SA, got a mile back here at the track making his VIC debut and charged home to be beaten 2 lengths. He meets that winner 2 kg’s better at the weights and can reverse the result.

Dangers:

RIGHT YOU ARE (1) is yet to miss a place at fiver career runs, he has won both starts since resuming off a maiden win and looks to be well above average. Last time at Caulfield, he was perfectly ridden and just fell in, Olly sticks but will need another gem of a ride from the tricky draw. PERSAN (5) was the winner of the race that the top pick came through last start and as previously mentioned, does get a negative weight swing here. He should be up on the speed with cover again and any rain around won’t hurt. KNOCK KNOCK (11) is still yet to win out of maiden grade which he did on debut, his run was encouraging when beaten as favourite last start in an easier race at Donald and looks suited getting out to the 2000m for the first time.

Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1000m

Hard to assess this race from a betting perspective three days out as a lot will depend on if the emergencies get a start. KOONUNGA (13) goes on top if the field is 1-14 as listed, Willow takes thr ide for her first run here up the Flemington straight. She resumed in Brisbane and was vetted pre-race (we all know how that ends), she had a good run in transit and after hitting the lead in the straight, just ran out of condition and was run down. Drawn out is certainly no issue.

Dangers:

PINYIN (16) with Olly booked and BLESS HER (17) as the third emergency will both play a role if they get a start. There are two dual acceptors in the pecking order above them and may get a run. GLOBAL GIFT (6) is an interesting runner form the Maher/Eustace stable making his Australian debut, all his wins have been over a mile so he may find them a little slick first-up over 1000m but keep an eye on him attacking the line for the future.

Race 6: Handicap 2540m

ARTY LUCAS (8) gets out in trip off a brilliant last start win at Ballarat, he was well into the red in the betting, getting the job done like the odds suggested he would. He led, was cruising throughout and bolted in by more than 3 lengths, with 4 lengths to third. He will take up the running again, if he gets it soft through the mid-stages they won’t be running him down.

Dangers:

CHAPADA (4) notched up his first win at the track at start 6 here last time, he hit a flat spot when they quickened but picked up quickly and really appreciated the trip. When they flattened for home he hit the front and was strong to the line. MAHAMEDEIS (1) will keep coming in the straight and although he hasn’t had a lot of success here at the track, looks suited getting out in trip. ALFARRIS (3) won over this track and trip back in the early Spring, interestingly that was his last win and the second horse was going around (winning) over the jumps on Tuesday at Ballarat.

Race 7: A.R. Creswick Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m

KING OF HASTINGS (1) goes on top in the race that I am most looking forward to watching (and betting into) today. He was beaten narrowly when resuming by the straight track specialist Prezado and then bolted in at Swan Hill over the carnival after a peach of a ride. Willow on. The 2/1 looks a good price.

Dangers:

BROADWAYANDFOURTH (5) was a brilliant winner at Caulfield two back, forget she went around at the Valley after being held-up badly at a vital stage. She is still looking to open her account up the straight which is a little concerning but should be attacking the line hard late. FRONT PAGE (10) is an interesting runner, he bolted in by almost 10 lengths at Albury two starts back and has won again since, he has to step up in grade sure but average horses don’t win by those sorts of margins.  HAWKER HURRICANE (2) has speed, I don’t think anyone expected him to be back in the pack last start and expect him to be up on the pace here.

Race 8: Handicap 1420m

HAUNTED (3) comes through the same race as a few of these last start, and may have just been caught out late being second-up. He was three-wide no cove throughout before improving to get outside the speed approaching the straight, took over at the clock tower before being nabbed late. It was a super run, we know how hard it is to sit off the track in the breeze over the 1400m here.

Dangers:

VASSILATOR (6) is a three-time winner here at the track including last start when running on hard from worse than mid-field. That’s what he will do again, Willow will ease him out of the early battle and look for him hitting the line as good as any. HEPTAGON (1) won the Swan Hill Cup in emphatic fashion by a big margin and was strong through the line, no doubt he can win this but am happy to take him on for a few reasons. He has the inside draw and will need everything to go right, coming back in trip and carrying the big weight, the $3 on offer early looks poison odds. ROMANCER (5) chased hard behind Vassilator here last time in a race we can line up the form, he doesn’t map as well here though and it will take a gem of a ride from the extreme gate.

Race 9: Handicap 1100m

How can we not be with PREZADO (2), again. He loves it here up the straight, as I have eluded to before he once ran Nature Strip to a half-length here. He has won three in a row at the track, getting out to the 1100m certainly is a little query but if saved for one run, can really hit the line hard over that last furlong.

Dangers:

ORDER OF COMMAND (1) is the obvious danger and the class runner of the field, the Wangoom winner of two starts back was well in the market but a little disappointing in the G1 Goodwood last start, happy to forgive that run as he did feature in the steward’s report post-race. He loves racing here. RICH CHARM (4) races well here and who wouldn’t love to see the trainer with another win here at HQ, who can forget his win here in Cup week in 2017! MILWAUKEE (5) is another that relished going up the famous straight, he didn’t handle the heavy track here last time and will appreciate the better surface.

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