Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday October 23, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 4 – SO SI BON
Race 1: THINK WE’RE DUE (5) from 2, 3 and 4.
Race 2: WEST WIND (1) from 2, 6 and 8.
Race 3: SANSOM (5) from 4, 8 and 2.
Race 4: SO SI BON (1) from 4,
6 and 2.
Race 5: HUMAN NATURE (8) from 1, 2 and 6.
Race 6: WRITTEN BEAUTY (3) from 5,
1 and 4.
Race 7: BEEHUNTER (7) from 3, 2 and 5.
Race 8: PIPPIE (8) from 1, 6 and 10.
Race 1: Open Handicap 2020m
I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these won, barring maybe the bottom one? THINK WE’RE DUE (5) gets the blinkers back on, he will be going forward. Last start at Moe in the Cup, he was forced to sit outside the speed and stuck on well enough. The inside gate may see him take a sit, but the addition of blinkers leaves me with more questions than answers.
All of them? INVERLOCH (2) doesn’t win out of turn, he led for a long way in the Cranbourne Cup last time. He may get a cheap lead here. SPANISH REEF (3) looks suited by the small field, she is stepping up in trip after being a little one-paced over the mile last time. ONE MORE TRY (4) comes through the same race and was a real eye-catcher late, she has raced well here at the track previously. Tough race.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares Handicap 2040m
WEST WIND (1) is going for three wins in a row. She led and won by 6 lengths at Cranbourne two starts back, she had three weeks between runs before leading all the way again at the same track last time. If she lands on the bunny and is left alone in front, bet again!
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (2) won at Flemington two starts back, she was slowly last tie but was very strong through the line late. She will be giving them a start again but charging late if the speed is on. LUNAR FLAME (6) was a winner at her only start here at the track, she will also get back but probably needs to be ridden for luck from the draw. OCEAN MISS (8) got back and hit the line behind the top pick last time, Olly goes on, expect her to be a lot closer today.
Race 3: Handicap 1200m
SANSOM (5) is a long time between wins, he goes well fresh and has flexibility. He has a minor gear change, draws well, expect him to settle closer here. It is a very open race on paper, the map looks the most favourable factor.
PARSIFAL (4) will be giving them a start, this stable must be respected when coming east. The last time he was here at the track he stormed home to win easily, look for him late again. SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (8) has won two in a row, he settled closer at the latest, Willow sticks on. WILLIAM THOMAS (2) needs everything to go right, happy to be against him as he will be giving them a start as always.
Race 4: VOBIS Gold Star Set Weights and Penalties 1500m
It is hard to say that SO SI BON (1) carrying 61kg looks to be well weighted under the set weights and penalties, but he is easily the best horse in this race. Amazingly he has only raced here once, placing in the MV Vase back in 2016. He will be giving them a start, he placed in the G1 Makybe Diva three back with 59kg’s. Moral?
GALAXY RAIDER (4) looks suited getting out in trip, he ran through the line well last time and has a consistent record third-up.
PARMIE (6) will get back in the run, this is no harder than last start, she was a placegetter here at the track earlier in the prep off a tough run. ICONOCLASM (2) was good at Listed level last time, he just doesn’t win enough of late.
Race 5: 0-84 Handicap 955m
HUMAN NATURE (8) ran on hard along the rails here when resuming, he was a winner here at the track at first sight here also. Last time out he travelled north to Sydney, over-raced and got wide and only battled to the line. Expect him to be a lot sharper here third-up.
TONY NICCONI (1) is first-up, he has won 2 of 4 when resuming. He has the big weight to deal with it but will find this a lot easier than his last few runs at Listed level before going to the paddock. Look for him late. FREE OF DEBT (2) is also first-up and gets Olly on, he doesn’t map well and trialed poorly but has shown he can mix it with better fields than this. CONDO’S EXPRESS (6) was beaten a long way on paper in the Apache Cat but forget that margin, he was held-up the last furlong. Expect him to settle closer here.
Race 6: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1000m
WRITTEN BEAUTY (3) won her maiden by 6 lengths in Queensland before going to the paddock, she was then transferred to the Hawkes yard and came south. She resumed at Canterbury 19 days ago, led and after getting it soft enough through the middle, dashed home with the best last furlong of the race to win easily. If she leads, she wins.
HOT WATER (5) was a maiden winner on debut, he was backed well into red figures and after settling behind the speed, took over inside the last furlong before running away for an easy win. He looks to be above average.
VALAQUENTA (1) had every chance resuming behind a smart one, he then got back at Flemington and was only fair in the run home last time, looking a little flat. Expect him to be sharper here today. CHROME ANGEL (4) has won two of four, she was brilliant at her two wins but only fair at the other two. Hard to know if her best is good enough.
Race 7: BM84 Handicap 1500m
BEEHUNTER (7) was only fair resuming at Flemington, he then went to Caulfield and after getting back, ran on hard down the outside at Listed level without really looking the winner. He will find this easier and has experience at the track.
GROUNDSWELL (3) sat up outside the speed at Cranbourne in a BM78 last time and was strong through the line to score, this is harder, but he will be up making his own luck. ADELAIDE ACE (2) has been giving too big a start of late, it’s been a while between wins and expect him to settle closer, as he did in the Alistair Clark when placing here in the Autumn. TITAN BLINDERS (5) looks the leader, he was in front for a long way here at the track at his latest before getting swamped late.
Race 8: Manikato Stakes WFA 1200m
PIPPIE (8) is just an out-and-out flyer, she showed how good she is fresh keeping a perfect record in the Moir, she led and ran them off their feet and never looked like getting run down late. Her record is not as good second-up but has had a month between runs and gets the inside draw. Nothing will be crossing her if she jumps with them, she looks tremendous value on an each-way basis.
TREKKING (1) won the Goodwood last prep, he resumed here in the Moir and ran on well behind the top pick before going to the Everest last week and again hitting the line hard in what was a brutal tempo. Has that taken it out of him? DIRTY WORK (6) won the Schillaci at Caulfield last start, he will be giving them a start but if they go helter skelter and he gets the back of Trekking in the run home, he has to be included. DIAMOND EFFORT (10) was beaten as favourite last start but lost no admirers, love the draw and should only need even luck when the horses in front are tiring.
Sandown Racing Tips – Wednesday June 17
Wednesday @ Sandown:
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – SHAHZADE
Race 1: STANDOFF (2) from
1, 8 and 4.
Race 2: TOYZ ON FIRE (1) from 2, 4 and 3.
Race 3: ART HEIRESS (10) from 6, 4 and 1.
Race 4: ORIENTAL LILY (1) from 2, 6 and 3.
Race 5: SHAHZADE (2) from
6, 7 and 1.
GIBBON (1) from 11, 10 and 4.
Race 7: MAXIMAK (13) from 12, 6 and 11.
Race 8: LA BELLE JUDE (1) from 9,
5 and 2.
Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1000m
STANDOFF (2) was poorly away on debut and never really in the race, she then went to Flemington two Saturday’s ago and stormed over the top having her first go up the straight. Olly replaces Dunn and she does have to come back in trip, expect her to be hitting the line hard again.
DIVINE CAPRICE (1) has already won two races in her career, she won her maiden around the bend at Bendigo then won up the straight a little over a month ago. She will be mid-field or worse in the run and be getting home hard. Watch for any money for the three on debut, in particular SUCCOTASH (8) for the Moody stable and ILOVETHEGAME (4) for Greg Eurell.
Race 2: 2YO Fillies Handicap 1300m
Another race for the babies but just for the girls this time. TOYZ ON FIRE (1) debuted at Wangaratta two weeks ago, she was very easy in the betting and started well into double figures. She was worse than mid-field in the run and after getting to the outside in the straight, ran on hard to win easily. She steps up in trip which looks to suit and can settle closer.
DERIVE (2) comes through the same race as the top pick. She was also back in the run and ran on hard, although she had her chance, they did gap the rest of them. She does meet her 1kg better at the weights off that run also. SEA PRINCESS (4) has only been to the races once, that was on the synthetic track where she hit the line well after being held-up at a vital stage. She gets the winkers on for the first time. Respect any money for the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig first-starter IT’S FRIDAY (3) who has been good at the jump-outs.
Race 3: 3YO BM78 Handicap 2400m
ART HEIRESS (10) was given plenty of time before making her debut, she won her maiden on the heavy track at start two before tackling a much harder race at Flemington last time. It was her first go out past the 2000m and she looked like she will get this trip.
SIGN SEAL DELIVER (6) has been up for a while but is racing well, he was beaten under 2 lengths last start in a race no harder than this and was a well backed fave. He had his chance, Olly stays on. DARGO (4) led but was very plain in the run home when second-up, with that run behind him he should give a sight here third-up. HIGH EMOCEAN (1) has only missed a place at one of her seven career starts, she was a last start winner out past 2000m so the trip should be no issue.
Race 4: 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1600m
ORIENTAL LILY (1) looked right at home on the heavy track last start, she was a mile back in the run before getting to the outside and charging home. He hit the front inside the furlong and ran away for a big win, up in class but if the pace is on, hard to see them holding her out late.
CHARLEISE (2) comes through the same race as the top pick and was arguably as good a run. She was back and wide without cover, ran on well between runners and clearly the run of the race outside the winner. RAPID ROMANCE (6) looks to have come back well with a placing here on the inner track a fortnight ago, this is easier, and she did place at her only other second-up run. GRAND DE FLORA (3) also comes through the same race as the top two selections, she sprinted quickly but hit the lead too early and faded late. She needs to just take the sit and be saved for one run.
Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1600m
SHAHZADE (2) beat the girls at 64 grade then went to Ballarat on a heavy track and win again after running on from id-field. She was brave in defeat last time after making a long-sustained run in a harder race, she maps beautifully again, and Zahra replaces McNeil. She looks the best of the day.
KEY TO THE MAK (6) will be giving them a start but there looks to be enough speed that every horse should get there chance. She loves the wet as she showed winning easily down in grade last start from the back. WHISKEY SHOOTER (7) is an interesting runner for the Gai/Bott stable that led for a long way in Sydney last start on the heavy track, all three of her wins have been on top of the ground. PURE SCOT (1) placed two in a row before sitting up on the speed and wasn’t beaten far last start in a harder race than this, She should go forward and is a must for all exotics.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1000m
Looking for some value here and I like GIBBON (1) on an each-way basis. He resumed at Bendigo in a harder race, settled mid-field and held his spot in the run home. He then dropped in grade to a 64 @ Ballarat and after getting back, swung wide and ran on hard to win easily. This is a little harder but can’t see why he is 20/1 in early markets, if the track is playing fairly, look for him late.
SWORD OF MERCY (11) deserves to be near the top of the betting coming off back-to-back wins. She was beautifully ridden to win her maiden then again had a soft run to win at her first go out of that grade. She can certainly win but looks way too short getting up to this level, winning two in a row off a maiden win is tough to do! SPLENDID ISOLATION (10) won on debut then was forced to chase hard up the straight at start two. She resumes today, watch the betting for any support.
HE CAN STAR (4) is another going for three straight wins, he gets a good claim and will try and land on the bunny early.
Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1400m
MAXIMAK (13) won an easier race two starts back, after being held-up at a vital stage she dashed hard when clear to win easily. Last time out she was slowly away and only fair here on the inner track, happy to forgive her that run as it was her first go on a heavy track.
CAFFREY (12) was a brilliant winner on debut on the synthetic and after start two, had almost a year on the sidelines. He resumed with a good win at Geelong after being transferred to the Moody stable, he should be up on the speed for a long way from the good draw. HAPAIRA (6) won two in a row before placing on the inside track last time, she has speed and looks the leader. Look for any track bias early in the day, expect her to be well backed if it is favouring those on the speed. MRS O’MALLEY (11) didn’t go a yard (literally stayed in the gates) two starts back then was fair after showing a short sharp burst last time in a harder grade. I like the wide draw as she will get back and be saved for one run.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1800m
LA BELLE JUDE (1) has the awkward draw to overcome, it may just mean we are going to get a better price about one of the best bets of the day. She is really flying at the moment, she placed two in a row before going to Muray Bridge last time and ran on well to score easily. That was at 78 grade in SA and she comes back to a 70 in VIC which is harder, I love the way she kept finding another gear when asked. She will go forward and look for cover, gets a good claim and wherever she settles, assuming she has a horse to follow, will keep coming in the straight.
BOOMSTOCK (9) is very consistent, he has placed at all three runs this campaign and has a good SP profile. He has been $2.15, $2.70 and $6 at those three runs, he is starting to get a little costly.
TAKSU (5) is also drawn out, will go forward and probably try to lead with the near side blinkers on for the first time. MALISEET (2) is another on-pacer that may have to sit up outside the leader, the star apprentice will have to control the tempo from that spot and keep it even throughout for him to win.