Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday January 22, 2021
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 3 – ELDERFLOWER
Race 1: PLAYOFFS (1) from 7, 4 and 3.
Race 2: APOLLO JOSH (1) from
9, 6 and 2.
Race 3: ELDERFLOWER (1) from
5, 7 and 3.
Race 4: VIRIDINE (3) from 5, 1 and 6.
Race 5: CONTINUANCE (11) from
10, 7 and 3.
Race 6: RESURGE (2) from 9, 12 and 10.
Race 7: ZESTY BELLE (6) from 9, 5 and 3.
SECOND SLIP (4) from 10, 9 and 7.
Race 1: BM70 Handicap 2500m
Any one of the 8 can win this. PLAYOFFS (1) is very consistent, he was well backed to win at Pakenham three back and stormed home to get up late. He has placed at two runs since, forced to work very hard at Flemington last time, he lost no admirers.
All of them. BYALIP (7) has not finished worse than second at his last four, the inside draw is a little concern as he is a get back type. If ridden for luck and he gets the breaks, look for him late weaving between them. COIN COLLECTOR (4) won an easier race at Bendigo then was poor up in grade last time. This is easier and he should be up on the speed. QUAFFANY (3) has only been fair across the border this prep, trust this stable know what they are doing bringing him here.
Race 2: 2YO Maiden Plate 1000m
One of those races where the betting will tell you more than I can! All 12 are on debut, a lot will change if the emergencies get a start. Watch the betting with APOLLO JOSH (1),
DECENT RAINE (9), HAURAKI GULF (6) and AQUAPISHE (2). Too hard!
Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 955m
ELDERFLOWER (1) looks the best of the night (maybe an all-up with the next race top tip). I like the fact she is drawn out over the 955m, the claiming jock can just get her out and work to the spot outside the speed and control the race. She bolted in at Caulfield carrying the 58kg, she just looks to quick and classy.
PROUD MIA (5) is an interesting runner coming down from Canberra. She has won two in a row in NSW, she is really fast! She will be able to lead and Olly rides, these sort of races look made for her but she just runs into a good one. MAGIC PIPPA (7) won on the Peninsula at her latest, she will be the one to benefit if the pace is ridiculous up front. ALMADRAVA (3) gets an economical run and will finish well, especially if she can hunt up early and get the leaders back.
Race 4: Australia Stakes WFA 1200m
VIRIDINE (3) looks a put-in take-out job here, the small field is the key. He was flying at the back-end of last prep, he resumed in Sydney and produced the best closing sectionals of the race to get into a place. He then went to Brisbane and although the beaten margin wasn’t huge, he wasn’t really suited the way the race was run. Small field. Olly on, easier race. Load-up.
TAVISAN (5) goes well here and has the speed to get across, or does he? Kah stays with the ride, he has had his chances at three runs this prep and probably need a very slow tempo if he is unable to be first to the rail. STREETS OF AVALON (1) is resuming, although he has never won fresh, he has placed at 4 of 7 and goes well here. NEIGHBOURHOOD (6) will be giving them a start and get an economical run off the inside draw, ridden for luck she can run on into a minor place.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1000m
CONTINUANCE (11) is an interesting runner coming over from the West for Lindsay Smith. She won her maiden two starts back then was beaten when at the top of the market at her first go out of that grade. The stable obviously has an opinion of her to bring her over, as always with the Smith team, money in the betting is key, especially late.
TWIST OF FURY (10) gets the winkers for the first time, she was beaten as favourite at Caulfield in a harder race last time, she kept chasing and didn’t give up and looks suited back in this grade. BACKPEDAL (7) didn’t have much luck after being held-up at a vital stage at her latest, she did well to get into second and this looks no harder. YOUNG LIAM (3) next best, but for the minor spots only. The key is if the big coin comes for the Bool horse.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 2040m
Tough race, this is the leg of the Quaddie where you need to throw in a stack and get the % down! RESURGE (2) has the wide draw to overcome, his form has been ok across the border and he will keep grinding home in the straight. He goes well at the trip, respect when this stable bring one here with only average SA form. DANCE DATE (9) only has a fair numerical record this prep, she was beaten 3.4L at the Valley last time but the margin is unfair after not being tested up the straight. She should have finished a lot closer and looked to have plenty to offer. PINA (12) made good ground from the back on what may have not been the best part of the track last time, HORSE FOR HIGHER (10) should roll forward from the wide draw and be on the speed. Tough race!
Race 7: VOBIS Gold Carat Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
ZESTY BELLE (6) won her maiden when resuming, she sat outside the speed and although the margin wasn’t huge, it has proven a good form reference. She then went to Flemington up the straight, took on the girls and was very strong through the line. Lane sticks with the ride, the draw is tricky, it will need to be a gem.
LUISELLI (9) comes through the same race at HQ, she hit the line well from back in the field, she had shown more speed last prep and expect her to settle closer here. YULONG COMMAND (5) is a winner at his only start around this tricky track, he led all the way that day and if Kah can get him first to the pegs again, will be hard to run down. AMALFI SPRITZ (3) is an interesting runner resuming, looks a tough race all around.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1200m
SECOND SLIP (4) is a dual acceptor, looks a great chance if he comes to this for Clarken/Kah. The Ex-Kiwi was brilliant winning an easier race across in SA at his first Australian start, he has the tactical speed that is such an advantage here at the Valley. Interesting to see where he starts, expect him to be well backed in this type of race if it is this.
PUCKAPUNYAL (10) is another former WA horse coming over for Lindsey, she has not finished further back than second in 8 career starts. She has speed but probably gets mid-field fresh over this trip. FOXY LADY (9) looks the only other winning chance, she is very consistent and although she will be giving them a start, should finish hard.
Exotic players can throw in TOOLBAR (7) for the minor spots, he is racing well going for three in a row, but this is harder. Just play the top two picks in the Quaddie.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday January 15, 2021
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 8 – DELUSIONS
Race 1: YUKON (1) from 7, 2 and 5.
Race 2: FIGHTER (1) from 8, 5 and 7.
Race 3: SWEET AS SCANDI (11) from 1, 10 and 4.
Race 4: ANIKERY (6) from 5, 7 and 4.
Race 5: THE MOBOT (10) from 14, 4 and 2.
VINACEOUS (10) from 12, 2 and 5.
Race 7: GLASSEY MISS (2) from 7, 11 and 8.
Race 8: DELUSIONS (6) from 5,
3 and 12.
Race 1: Class 1 Handicap 1600m
YUKON (1) looks the one, he won his maiden in NSW before coming to Sandown at start three last time and after leading, stuck on well to narrowly go down. He looks suited around the Valley, has the inside gate and expect him to jump and run and be very hard to run down.
SAFEEYA (7) looks the obvious and possibly only danger. She bolted in by 5 lengths to win her maiden, she was well beaten at her first go out of that grade but that was a big step up in class. She will be giving them a start and needs the speed on. I expect her to drift in the betting. SPY COLONEL (2) and RUNNING CLOUD (5) next best.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m
FIGHTER (1) has been runner-up at all three starts, he comes across the border for the first time after being very costly to punters, beaten at under $3 at all of those starts. He maps beautifully behind the speed and Olly rides, that first win is not far away.
STELLA DE LA REALM (8) was runner-up on debut, she led at big odds and was only run down in the last strides. If she can pinch a break approaching the turn, she will be hard to run down. LIMPET (5) has placed at his last couple, beaten as favourite at Werribee last time but did appear to have every chance. ISOLATING (7) is on the 7-day back-up, Walker sticks with the ride.
Race 3: 3YO Fillies Maiden Plate 1200m
SWEET AS SCANDI (11) showed a stack of improvement last start, she came through a very hot maiden where she appeared to have every chance. She went to Yarra Valley last time and showed more speed, she found the front and was only run down late with a big gap to third.
AMINATU (1) has placed at two of three, both of them this campaign. She was beaten as a very well backed favourite last time, she did have every chance though. She draws out and looks hard to beat, but no way will I be steaming into the 7/4! LONGDUAN (10) is very quick, she was racing well before leading and fading badly when outclassed last time. She looks much better suited back in maiden grade. DICANTO (4) was ok debut on a heavy track, she can improve on the better surface with that run under her belt.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 3000m
ANIKERY (6) is going for four wins on the bounce, she has gone from 2000m-2200m- 2630m last time, the step up to 3000m looks ideal. She makes her own luck out in front, she has to step up in grade again, but you know she will give a sight with the claiming jockey.
POWER OF ATTORNEY (5) has the wide draw but how much to weigh that in over this trip? He is likely to get back, he was a heavy track winner at Kensington last time, hard to line up that form. FIELD OF LIGHTS (7) has placed at his last couple including one behind the top pick, he should be strong enough at the back-end. STEAM ROLLER (4) won two in a row before being outclassed at Listed level last time. Suited back in this grade.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 955m
Tough race to preview early doors as a lot will depend on which horses come here. THE MOBOT (10) is a dual-acceptor having her first go at the track, she has good tactical speed and should be camped on the leaders. She is a three-time winner over the 1000m, the tempo looks to suit.
If GOLD SPARK (14) gets a start as the second emergency he comes right into play. He was well backed at Sale, settled mid-field and stormed home to get up in the last couple of strides. THE LAST NAPOLEAN (4) is very consistent, placing at his last couple including a close-up loss at the track, the wide draw is obviously a concern. HUMZZ (2) comes back in trip, he showed speed to lead last start but can see him taking a sit here.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 2040m
VINACEOUS (10) doesn’t win out of turn and is certainly no star, I liked the toughness she showed last start at Stony Creek. She was forced to sit outside the speed, put away the leader in the straight before getting nabbed late. Hopefully they ride her positive again and she can break that year drought.
WRITTEN ADVICE (12) won an easier race at Kerang last time. She comes up in class and down in the weights should get a good run in transit. PADDY MAC (2) comes here off a placing at Geelong 8 days ago, he will get back and run home hard. He has shown that he can carry the big weight. MULETA (5) made some ground late at Flemington, this is easier.
Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1500m
GLASSEY MISS (2) was flying at the back-end of the last prep and looks to have come back just as well. She resumed at the Bool, was very well backed into favourite and after a gun run behind the speed, took over early in the straight and ran away for a soft run.
BRAZEN SONG (7) has good tactical speed and looks the leader. If she can push across and find the rail first, she will be hard to run down. She is very consistent and looks suited around the Valley. TRAGIC (11) has the car park draw, she was well beaten in a harder race last time but she did make ground late which you can’t see by just looking at the beaten margin. GUTSY (8) is flying, he has not finished further back than second this time in six runs. He will roll forward, doubt he can win in this grade though of he has to sit parked.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1200m
DELUSIONS (6) has not won in almost a year, forget that as she has had only 2 runs back and had no luck at either of them. She resumed at Sandown and was held-up for a furlong before hitting the line well. She then went to Caulfield and again was held-up until the furlong pole, she should be fully fit here and looks a great each-way bet!
TORCHED (5) resumes here, he was a winner at maiden level when fresh last campaign and looks suited back on a good track.
LOWANNA MAGIC (3) has the horror draw, he will get back but has showed he has the closing speed required when storming home at the Bool last time. JAY GATSBY (12) is resuming and has not missed a place in his 5-start career. He may be the best horse in this race going forward, but does he need the run?
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday January 1, 2020
Friday @ Flemington:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 4 – DEFIANT DANCER
Race 2: FEUERMOND (12) from 7, 6 and 3.
Race 3: REFLECT THE STARS (6) from 4, 5 and 1.
Race 4: DEFIANT DANCER (8) from 1, 2 and 4.
Race 5: RIDING THE WAVE (1) from 7, 6 and 10.
Race 6: MRS SIPPY (15) from 16, 4 and 10.
Race 7: HASSELTOFF (5) from 8, 7 and 3.
Race 8: FUNDRAISER (3) from 9, 14 and 6.
Race 1: 2YO Fillies Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
What a way to start the New Year, 9/11 have not been to the races before and the two we have seen are coming up the straight for the first time. Money talks here, hopefully you are still hungover from NYE to worry about betting into this! If you must.
Race 2: BM70 Handicap 2000m
FEUERMOND (12) looks to have plenty of upside. He won his maiden at career start two at Terang, he was very heavily backed and the only issue was a slow start, running away to win by more than 3 lengths. He then went to the Bool two weeks ago, got back and was forced to make a long run but was way too good for that class. Harder again here and the draw is horrible, but he looks to have the class to overcome both.
LAUNDY (7) won over 2100m at Sandown last start, he was very well backed and never looked like getting run down, leading all the way. Not sure the soft lead is there today though? NOT MINE (6) is an interesting runner, he has only the one win to his name but has shown promise since arriving here. He was very strong late last start at Pakenham. PLAYOFFS (3) doesn’t map as well as his last couple, I expect they will push on early from the wide gate but can’t see him sitting parked and winning. He needs cover or hit the lay button early in the run.
Race 3: Bagot Handicap 2800m
Looks an open race on paper, any one of the nine returning the winner wouldn’t surprise. REFLECT THE STARS (6) goes on top, she comes through the same race as a few of these. She got a mile back in the run and finished better than the two who beat her, they are both engaged here also. That’s her go, she needs everything to go right but will be charging over the last furlong.
All of them. MIYAKE (4) won an easier race here at the track last time, beating TRALEE ROSE (5) in the process. He should have the tactical advantage over her again, they were very close in the market last time and the margin wasn’t huge. WENTWOOD (1) is flying, he is going for three wins in a row including lats start here in a similar race when running on hard from the back. HE will get back again and needs the right tempo.
Race 4: Standish Handicap 1200m
DEFIANT DANCER (8) is going through the grades nicely. He ticks a lot of boxes here and is one of the better bets on the programme. He has won here at the track, that was last start after a great ride he took over before the clock tower and ran away. He maps well again and has plenty of upside.
GRAFF (1) is all class, he was a long time between wins before resuming with a G2 victory two starts back. He is 7-weeks between runs here after being outclassed behind Bivouac and Nature Strip, this is a big drop in class. WILLIAM THOMAS (2) will do what he always does, get back and run on. He was left flat footed last time but kept coming late. Although he has not won here, he looks suited back on the bigger track. SIRIUS SUSPECT (4) will be up on the speed, he won last time at Pakenham but this is harder. Maybe a bet in the run is the way to go with him if he gets the soft lead he needs.
Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1200m
RIDING THE WAVE (1) won an easier race two starts back, he then came here up the straight last time. He was up outside the speed and although he was outkicked by the impressive winner, he stuck on well and was comfortable into second.
ALBURQ (7) was beaten a couple of lengths as favourite in an easier race here last time, he may have just run out of condition late and does have a very good record second-up. MONTENEGRO MAN (6) doesn’t have a great record at the track but is racing well, if the inside isn’t off, he should get a nice run behind the speed. MODEAR (10) stormed home to win fresh, no jockey at the moment so is she coming here?
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1400m
Not a big fan of the race so I will put in a couple that will likely be huge odds, see if we can’t jag a leg of the Quaddie that will knock many out. MRS SIPPY (15) resumed with an easier BM64 win, she showed great acceleration from the back when asked and was string through the line. Stepping up in trip and maps to be mid-field. STRATESSA (16) was beaten 5L last start in a similar race but was off the track without cover throughout. WITCHFULTHINKING (4) was the winner of that race following an 8L win in a BM58, she is speedy and will be looking to lead all the way. BRAZEN SONG (10) next best but no confidence in the race.
Race 7: 3&4YO BM70 Handicap 1700m
HASSELTOFF (5) was stepping up on trip for the first time past the mile last start here at the track, he got back, made a long run and after hitting the front late, was run down in the last strides after peaking on his run. Loses nothing with Kah going on, he gets a very soft run on the pegs.
VIBRANT GLIDER (8) will be big odds here but is worth a small ticket each-way. He won for the first time out of maiden grade last start, he was strong through the line and the intention is shown here with the blinkers going on for the first time. This is harder, but he looks up to it! NIKAU SPUR (7) was most impressive to win his maiden last start at the Valley, not sure about the form though out of that one. Allen sticks with the ride, I imagine he will ride him cold. LIBRATE (3) placed up in grade against the girls last time, she settled closer and should do again from the good draw.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1600m
FUNDRAISER (3) is going for a hattrick of wins, he was super getting up at Sandown last time after over-racing throughout and being forced to sit wide without cover. He was strong through the line and it has been a terrific form reference with three winners coming through it. He looks one of the best of the day.
ANIRISHMAN (9) has plenty of tactical speed, he was run down after leading last time but did knuckle at the start which not only cost him position but confidence. If he can lead, he will be still bobbing for a place late. QUANTUM MECHANIC (14) was a winner second-up last prep, she just ran out of gas late against the girls last time and will be better for the run. FLORIDA DREAM (6) was the winner of an easier race resuming, she was fresh at the mile and stormed home to get up late. He looks suited on the big open spaces here.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday December 18, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – TYCOON BEC
ZION (5) from 1, 2 and 7.
Race 2: SUPREME THUNDER (5) from 3, 4 and
Race 3: TYCOON BEC (3) from 1, 2 and 7.
ZOU DANCER (10) from 5, 4 and 3.
MOI CHOUX (3) from 7, 10 and 1.
Race 6: BYALIP (5) from 3, 1 and 8.
Race 7: SAYUMI (12) from 11, 7 and 4.
Race 8: ELDERFLOWER (1) from 11, 7 and
Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1000m
Only a small field and the all look to have a chance. ZION (5) looks to have come back well, he resumed at Bendigo after debuting in NSW and was very easy in the market. He was slowly away, settled worse than mid-field before charging clear to win comfortably late. There has already been another winner out of the race as well. Expect Allen to ride him cold?
JAPERY (1) is a two-time winner including fresh last start at Wangaratta. HE got well back and ran on hard over the top of them to win easily and it has proven a good form reference. ESTA LA ROCA (2) sat up on the speed to win at the Valley last time, she draws to get the gun run and the jock should have all the options early. NIGHT OF DELIGHT (7) was well backed late to start as favourite when getting the maiden win out of the way at Yarra Valley resuming. She looks to have come back well and maps perfectly.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m
SUPREME THUNDER (5) will start short here off the back of consecutive runner-up finishes to start his career. The latest was here at the Valley and he was well backed late, settled well back and was forced to make a long run. He loomed up but just found one better, the winkers go on here and he should be doing no work from the pole.
NIKAU SPUR (3) looks the obvious threat, the former Kiwi was having his first start in Oz at Bendigo last time when beaten as favoruite. He looked to have his chance, the money for him that day cannot be overlooked. GET IN THE QUEUE (4) showed more tactical speed last start and wasn’t beaten far, that is always an asset around here.
Throw in MISS GOBCAIN (8) for the minors, she has placed at both of her starts but this is a lot harder.
Race 3: Class 1 Handicap 1523m
TYCOON BEC (3) looks to be well above average form what we saw of her on debut. She was taking on the girls at maiden level at Kyneton, there wasn’t a lot of love for her in the betting, I don’t think that will be the case here. She showed good speed, led and kicked around the turn and bolted in by almost 5 lengths. Drawn well again here, if she lands on the bunny, she would only need to reproduce that to stay undefeated.
BOSSDOM (1) won his maiden at Kyneton two starts back then made some ground from the back last time in his first go out of that grade. This looks no harder. PALACIO MUSICO (2) was impressive getting his maiden win at Wodonga, he was forced to race the majority three-wide no cover on the speed. This is harder. IT’S TRUE (7) is another last start maiden winner, hers was on a heavy track at Geelong. She was strong through the line and gets a soft run.
Race 4: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1200m
ZOU DANCER (10) was a Dunkeld maiden winner when resuming, she then came here a fortnight ago and was a real eye-catcher from a mile back, hitting the line well to just miss the placings. Expect her to be a bit sharper here third-up and with that first look at the track out of the way.
TOYZ ON FIRE (5) resumes here and has trialed well across the border. She was a winner on debut before tackling some harder races through the winter, expect to see some money for her here fresh. STORMING THE SEAS (4) won a Mornington maiden on debut, she was very well backed and hit the line well to get up in the last few strides. She looks suited getting out to the 6 furlongs. REAL FEELING (3) looks to have come back well, she was off the scene for a year before braining them in an easier Wodonga maiden. She gets a soft run from the good draw.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 955m
The jump-and-run for the night looks very tough.
MOI CHOUX (3) has plenty of speed but does come back in trip here. Expect him to go forward and look for cover, he was good last time after being forced to face the breeze. RUNSIS (7) is an interesting runner resuming off a year’s break, she has the wide draw to overcome and would need to see some money for her. GLENFERRIE GIRL (10) is speedy and very consistent, she was very well backed to win at The Bool two starts back. REWARD WITH RETURN (1) doesn’t win out of turn but usually is honest, he was brave in defeat in one of these last time after being wide off the track throughout.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 3000m
BYALIP (5) gets the weight advantage over the last start winner Pissaro, he gets a couple of gear changes and will settle closer. He probably needs to get the jump on his main rivals and get moving from the 1000m and try to pinch it.
PISSARO (3) beat the top pick and a few of these a fortnight ago, he will be giving them a start but finishing over the top. He has more dash than the other back-markers who are more of the grinding type. COUNT ZERO (1) will just keep running, he won the Jericho Cup at the Bool last time by a big margin. Whilst some of these are coming up for air down the side the last time, he will keep grinding. KAZOOM (8) is not getting any younger as a 10Y) now but is racing well, he wasn’t beaten far at double figure odds here last time.
Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1200m
SAYUMI (12) has raced well here over her short career, last time on the track a fortnight ago she broke her maiden status as a favourite. She settled mid-field, improved down the side before running over the top. This is harder at her first go out of that grade but there are no stars here.
FIXATED (11) is going for three wins on the trot, he has very good speed and should be carving over early. If Willow can get to the rail first, he will be hard to run down. SHEZAWITNESS (7) was coming off a 44-week break at the Bool a few weeks ago, she kept making ground and will be better for the run. BONES (4) won back-to-back races before going to the paddock, he was brave in defeat here resuming after sitting off the track. He was still strong late, I would have preferred a senior jock on though.
Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m
ELDERFLOWER (1) has not missed a place in her 7 career starts, she resumes here with a couple of gear changes. She won on debut and was third last prep when resuming, as always with this stable, the confidence grows when the money comes. She has speed and probably needs to lead to win.
MISS ALBANIA (11) won her maiden last start, she also will be looking for the top and it may just be a question of which jockey has the most urgency. QUESADILLA (7) resumed at Mornington and bolted in at BM58 grade, she was very wide and without cover throughout but was way too classy, bolting in by almost 4 lengths.
HEKA EXPRESS (3) was wide throughout then checked and lost all chance last time here, Allen takes the ride.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday December 11, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4 Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 4 – LOVEPLANET
Race 1: EL SALTO (2) from 4, 3 and 1.
Race 2: LIVINGSTONE FALLS (7) from 4, 11 and 10.
Race 3: DEE KEEPA (3) from 2, 6 and 7.
Race 4: LOVEPLANET (9) from 10, 3 and 2.
Race 5: ROCK TYCOON (2) from 4, 10 and 5.
Race 6: MEEHNI (9) from 4, 2 and 5.
Race 7: KOOTARA (4) from 3, 1 and 6.
Race 8: CIELO D’ORO (10) from
12, 4 and 5.
Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1200m
EL SALTO (2) was on debut at Traralgon two weeks ago, he was very solid at the top of the betting with a SP of $2.80. He showed good tactical speed to lead, kicked early in the straight and never looked like getting run down. That speed should be a great asset around here.
ROYAL GUN SALUTE (4) resumed with a maiden win at Pakenham, he was forced to make the run three-wide before going clear late. He was very well backed also, they obviously have an opinion of him. THE FELON (3) was brave in defeat when resuming, just not sure where he gets to form the draw in the small field. Happy to take him on if he starts fave. BRENLYN’S TROOPER (1) own at big odds on debut at Wodonga, this is harder, but he was very good late that day after over-racing.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m
LIVINGSTONE FALLS (7) was on debut at Hamilton 10 days ago, she was backed as if there was no settling, eventually starting in red figures. She jumped awkwardly and settled well back, clipped heels when approaching the turn and really warmed up late doing best through the line for second. She comes off a soft track and up to the mile. They obviously have an opinion of her.
RED SANTA (4) looks a big improver off his debut run, he started fave at the Hillside track, got a good run in transit before being slightly held-up before the furlong pole. He was ok through the line in what has proven a good form reference. TARANTELLO (11) looks the only other winning chance, throw SEDUCE (10) in for the minor spots only.
Race 3: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1600m
DEE KEEPA (3) never runs a bad race, she makes her own luck up on the speed. Last time on the Hillside in this grade against the girls, she sat up outside the speed and took over early in the straight before kicking on to win. This is her first go here at the Valley.
OUR BIRDSONG (2) won an easier race two starts back coming off the heavy track for the first time this prep, she led them up in the same race as the top pick last time and really did seem to have her chance. GLAMOUR FOX (6) has been up a long time, her form in Sydney has been good enough and she will be the one that will be steaming late form the back. LADY DAY (7) is going for three wins in a row, she has enough tactical speed to lead but the jockey worries me around here, will she be too keen?
Race 4: BM64 Handicap 1600m
LOVEPLANET (9) was beaten as favourite on debut, he then went to Yarra Valley and although they went up very short, they weren’t shy of backing him starting $1.45. He settled behind the speed, took over at the top of the straight before running away to win 6! He draws well and looks the best of the night.
MAKE MINE HENNESSY (10) looks the only danger, if any. She was having her first look at the Valley last start, she was slowly away to be well back, came four-wide down the side and ran on hard to charge clear over the last 100m. She was suited the way the race was run and will need the speed on again. OKOTOKS (3) and BLUNKKKA (2) can be thrown in for exotic players.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 955m
This almost looks to be a field job for Quaddie players. ROCK TYCOON (2) won back-to-back races earlier this prep including one here at the Valley, his latest he blew it at the start when bounding and never really regathered. Beautifully drawn, he should be camped behind the leaders and ready to pounce.
MOUNT MITTY (4) resumed at Dunkeld, he showed good speed to lead, kicked clear early in the straight and although he was easy in the market, he never looked like getting run down. CHROME ANGEL (10) showed good speed here last time, she has not been far away in two starts this time in and will be stamped urgent early from the wide gate. THE LAST NAPOLEON (5) resumed at the Bool on the soft track, after getting back he hit the line well. Will he be able to keep up early?
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 2040m
MEEHNI (9) has been up a long time but has not run a bad race this campaign in 7 runs. She won her maiden when resuming this prep, she was racing well in SA before going to the Hillside track last time. She just seemed to peak on the run late and was well beaten. This is no harder.
She is no moral, there are certainly no world beater’s in this. MULETA (4) was a dominant winner at Cranbourne two back then was beaten as favourite last time at Pakenham but was an eye-catcher from the back again. Look for him late. DESERT DREAMER (2) was making good ground along the rails and got close before running into a dead-end last time not far from the line. DIAMOND LUKE (5) has come back well with a win at Wangaratta in easier grade, he should have no problem with the trip, but this is harder.
Race 7: Mares BM64 Handicap 1200m
KOOTARA (4) was a winner when resuming this prep, she hasn’t been too far away at three runs since. Last time here against the boys she got back before angling to the centre of the track and ran on well to be beaten a couple of lengths. Look for her late back against the girls.
DON’TTELLTHEBOSS (3) is resuming, she is still yet to win out of maiden grade, the intent is there with the blinkers going on fresh. She is also likely to get back, make sure the track is playing fairly and there is money for her before stepping in. SHE’S SENSATIONAL (1) is also first-up, she won fresh on the synthetic last prep leading all the way. She has the inside draw, if she jumps with them, she should be on the bunny for a long way. MARINE BELLE (6) has the wide draw, her best chance looks to be if she can get to the breeze and they walk through the middle stages.
Race 8: Entires and Geldings BM64 Handicap 1200m
CIELO D’ORO (10) looks to have come back from the paddock well, he was off the scene for 29 weeks before going to the soft track at Kyneton. He settled worse than mid-field before easing wide and storming home to win by more than 4 lengths. Was it just one out of left field?
LOWANNA MAGIC (12) is not officially first-up but has had 7-weeks since his fresh maiden win. Up in class and off the break, first go here at the Valley, if he can tick all those boxes he doesn’t look the worst each-way bet at big odds. EVENING GLORY (4) is first-up, he will be giving them a start and may just need another furlong. Look for him late running into a place. FILIP’S STAR (5) rarely runs a bad race, he has placed at his last couple after racing behind the speed. He probably should have won at Kilmore after being held-up at a vital stage.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday December 4, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – GOOLAGONG ROSE
Race 1: MARTINI SPECIAL (1) from 3, 5 and 6.
Race 2: SAYUMI (11) from 7, 2 and 1.
HASSELTOFF (1) from 4, 8 and 3.
Race 4: NIGHT WITCHES (5) from 9, 2 and 4.
Race 5: GOOLAGONG ROSE (10) from
1, 7 and 12.
Race 6: QUEEN GUINEVERE (4) from 9, 7 and 5.
Race 7: LAUNDY (5) from 11, 9 and 3.
FOXY LADY (5) from 9, 13 and 11.
Race 1: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1200m
Tough race to start the night, any one of the 8 runners returning to the winner’s stall wouldn’t surprise me. MARTINI SPECIAL (1) goes on top, she was a winner on debut then lead for a long way before being run down late here at the track last time. Hard to beat if she finds the top again. DIAMONDS (3) notched up her first win at Pakenham against the girls last time, she sat up on the speed and was strong through the line after being challenged late. PARTY IN STYLE (5) is another last start maiden winner, she was backed is if there was no settling and should have taken plenty from the run. THUNDER PEAK (6) like a few of these comes out of maiden grade for the first time, she looks the one that can sit back and charge home late.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1200m
Plenty of these have been around the mark and the money will tell us a lot closer to the jump as so many of them are resuming. SAYUMI (11) has placed at three of her four career runs, both of her fresh runs have been here at the track. She gets a minor gear change and will likely be giving them a start, look for her late.
Plenty. DIAMONDS’N’STONES (7) has the wide draw to overcome but has been good enough at the jump-outs, he wasn’t beaten far last time before going to the paddock and showed he can do work in the run. BOTTMINGEN (2) looked to have every chance on debut at Moe, he ran through the line well into second after the rider lost the whip a furlong from home. ARISTO MISSILE (1) placed at both runs, he obviously has the ability as the SP profile is good being beaten as favourite at both starts.
Race 3: Class 1 Handicap 1600m
HASSELTOFF (1) ran on hard to win his maiden two starts ago on the soft track, he then went to Sandown last time in his first go out of that grade. He was forced to sit three-wide throughout and took the lead early in the straight, he was run down late but there was a big gap back to third.
NIGHT PASSAGE (4) resumed here two weeks ago, she over-raced back in the field and ran on well at double figure odds. Love the jockey change with Kah replacing Currie. I loved the way MAKE MINE HENNESSY (8) ran on in an easier race last time, she doesn’t win out of turn but could be the one to benefit if the speed is on. LA PIETRA (3) steps out of maiden grade after sitting outside the leader on the Hillside to get her first win last start. She maps well here.
Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2040m
NIGHT WITCHES (5) was in this same grade last time against the girls here two weeks ago, she sat back and after coming wide, she didn’t look to handle the bend well. She balanced up and charged to get up in the last stride, hopefully she handles the track better with that first look out of the way.
PINA (9) has not won in more than a year, she has been good at her last two coming off a 6-week break. Hopefully Allen rides her positively, if she finds the top she will be hard to run down. INFLUENTIAL GIRL (2) will get back and may be best suited getting the back of the top pick in the run home. DESERVED (4) is also a back-marker, these three that will be giving them a start will need a genuine tempo, hence the lack of confidence in the race.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 955m
GOOLAGONG ROSE (10) is a McEvoy runner that debuted back in SA more than 12 months ago. She led at Gawler, kicked clear and bolted in to win by as far as they wanted to. She was very heavily backed that day, she has obviously had some issues but has trialed well. If there is money for her, she could be the best of good things with Kah riding?
THE MOBOT (1) is drawn out wide and resuming off a long break, she showed a stack of potential as a youngster but has obviously had some issues. She has good tactical speed, watch for any money for her fresh. GOLD SPARK (7) is an interesting runner, formerly with the Will Clarken yard, he resumes here for the new yard. Expect him to get back and charge home. ESTA LA ROCA (12) is another resuming off a good campaign as a juvenile, she was dominant winning her maiden in front throughout. Love the draw, the jock should have all the options.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 2500m
QUEEN GUINEVERE (4) is going for three wins in a row, the last two victories were great running on hard form the back. A slight concern that she is a back marker and drawn the inside, she should get out at some stage over the 2500m.
BYALIP (9) won an easier Class 1 last time, he was beautifully ridden behind the speed and eased wider to run away. The further they went the further he wins by? KAZOOM (7) was very heavily backed late to win at Geelong last start, he isn’t getting any younger and at 10yo, this is his first go at the Valley! CALIFORNIAFIREBIRD (5) won a highweight race last time, he can settle closer but doesn’t have a lot of brilliance.
Race 7: BM64 Handicap 2040m
LAUNDY (5) has been up for a while, he has been racing so well with his only poor run this prep coming on the heavy track. Last time he was here, he settled behind the speed and appeared to have every chance, the winner was just way too good. Nash rides?
LOBSTER NOODLES (11) has good tactical speed and will go forward and make her own luck. She was officially 7/9 last time here but only beaten 0.7L in a blanket finish, hopefully she can control it from outside the leader again. FURIOSO (9) is only lightly raced, he was thrown in the G2 Sandown Guineas last start having his first go out of maiden grade. Back in class and taking on the older horses. ALGIERS (3) was off the scene for a long time before resuming at Benalla, he won second-up at Kyneton and looks to have come back well. Kah takes the ride, a huge tick!
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1200m
Tough race, play wide Quaddie peeps!
FOXY LADY (5) gets the winkers off for the first time, she has a decent record resuming and is a winner here at the track previously. Still no jockey listed? She will get back and ride for luck. HEYINGTON STATION (9) also gets a minor gear change, he hasn’t won in a while but was continually running into heavy tracks last prep. HELAVABEL (13) comes into play if he gets a start as the first emergency, ZOUSHACK (11) also resumes, he has won well fresh and gets a great jockey change. He got a lot further back last time and was held-up, expect him to be closer to the speed here.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday November 20, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 6 – TRAGIC
Race 1: PASSIONATE LASS (3) from 1, 2 and 9.
Race 2: MIMI’S AWARD (9) from
1, 3 and 5.
Race 3: AUSTRATA (6) from
4, 1 and 2.
Race 4: METEORITE (5) from
2, 3 and 6.
Race 5: CORNER POCKET (4) from 2, 1 and 3.
Race 6: TRAGIC (8) from
6, 3 and 9.
Race 7: ROBE BAY (10) from
15, 2 and 3.
Race 8: VOWMASTER (11) from
10, 3 and 9.
Race 1: 3YO Fillies BM64 Handicap 1200m
PASSIONATE LASS (3) is one of six last start winners in the race, she had trialed well leading into that Mornington maiden. She showed good speed to lead, kicked early in the straight and never looked like not getting the cash. There was a good gap to third, Willow takes the ride and her style of racing looks suited here at the Valley.
KUNA MAGIC (1) scored at the Sapphire Coast on debut before going to the paddock, she was slowly away and got a mile back before storming home for an impressive win. She looks well above average resuming here for the new yard. MARTINI SPECIAL (2) won a Moe maiden on debut 12 days ago, she was strong through the line but had every favour and was double-figure odds. NALEIGH (9) broke through at career start four across the border in SA, it has proven a good form reference and has been sharp.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1600m
MIMI’S AWARD (9) was easy in the market and got into double figures at her debut at Pakenham two weeks ago. She wasn’t beaten far and there was a huge gap back to third, senior jockey goes on.
LORENTE (1) was also runner-up on debut, he gave them a huge start and although he was all over the place in the run home, stormed into second with a gap to third. WHO’S YOUR PAPY (3) placed at start two, he was well backed, and they have pulled the trigger here with the blinkers going on for the first time. EVIE GIRL (5) has been good at both runs this campaign, but has she had enough chances?
Race 3: BM64 Handicap 1600m
AUSTRATA (6) resumed at Kilmore three weeks ago having career start number three. He got back in the run as favourite, improved off the track on the turn and was strong through the line. The margin wasn’t huge, but I loved the way he stuck his neck out, he can go on with it and draws beautifully.
ROLLS (4) never runs a bad race, he has been up on the speed at his last couple at home at the Bool and been run down late. Drawn the inside, expect him to be making his own luck. DESERT DREAMER (1) won a 58 three starts back at Moe, he wasn’t far away last time here at the track and didn’t have a lot of room early in the straight. IL DIVO (2) was in the greys race last time over the carnival, he hit the line well, but this is his first go here at the track, that worries me a little.
Race 4: BM78 Handicap 955m
METEORITE (5) bolted in to win by 5 lengths here at the Valley when resuming, he won again at Sale on the heavy track before leading for a long way at Flemington up the straight over the carnival. This looks easier, of the on-speed horses he looks the only one with the ability to sit parked in the breeze and still win.
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (2) resumed here a month ago off a 6-month break, he was very well backed and led all the way. They take the blinkers off tonight, his record is poor though second-up but races well here. ROCK TYCOON (3) has won back-to-back races including last start here at the track, he had the gun run behind the speed and maps to get the same run here. KALKARNI ROYALE (6) is a month between runs, she will appreciate the drop in class coming back from Listed level last time and will be making her own luck on the speed.
Race 5: Class 1 Handicap 1200m
CORNER POCKET (4) was a maiden winner at Hamilton 10 days ago, he shared the lead and held the rails before putting them away early in the straight. The official margin was 1.25 lengths but more than 3 lengths back to third. Interestingly the blinkers come off today, as always with this stable, money talks.
HELAVABEL (2) is resuming with Olly taking the ride. He had one start here at the track and placed at his first go out of maiden grade, the draw is a concern as is the map. If he can get cover he can run a race but am very scared they will just snip him at the start. HARPUNA (1) ran home well into second behind an all-the-way winner across the border when resuming, he maps to get a soft run behind the leader. ZOUGAZEM (3) was resuming here three weeks ago and ran on hard from back in the field, can he settle closer with the blinkers on for the first time. Like many of the chances here though, the wide draw is a concern.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1600m
TRAGIC (8) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but I am stamping her as the best of the night. She has had three starts this prep, she stormed home at Benalla fresh to just miss, went to Pakenham and had the gun run before again just finding a couple better. Last time at Flemington in a harder race over the carnival, she got back and showed good closing speed into second, this is her race to lose.
None! I am very confident she gets the chocolates.
Those playing exotics throw in PALUMBO (6) from the Begg yard, the well-drawn SOPHIE’S REVEGE (3) and NIGHT WITCHES (9), another Godolphin runner but this one trained by Jimmy Cummings.
Race 7: BM78 Handicap 2040m
ROBE BAY (10) has won twice this campaign, resuming at Coleraine then last start at Mortlake in the Cup She got well back and ran on hard to win comfortably on the line. She is a little hit and miss and this is her first go at the track, if the speed is on up front she will be finishing as good as any.
A lot will depend on the make-up of the field as there are 6 emergencies, the fifth in line KISSINGER (15) would go to the top of selections if he was to gain a start. THOUGHT OF THAT (2) has placed at both starts on the track, he looks beautifully drawn and will have all the options early with his tactical speed. HUNBOSHI (3) was outclassed at Flemington but certainly ran better than her SP, she ran through the line well from a mile back and has shown she can do it at both ends.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1000m
Like the previous race, with only 10 secured a start in the field it is hard to be confident in the early selections as VOWMASTER (11) is my top pick but isn’t guaranteed a start. The Waller trained 3YO gelding has only had one start, he was slowly away at Kyneton on debut and settled well back. He got very wide whilst improving on the turn before charged home for a most impressive win. He draws well and can settle closer with a better jump.
If the Waller runner at the top doesn’t get a start, WRITTEN MISS (10) looks the one. She debuted at Ballarat a month ago, showed good speed to lead and after kicking 3L clear early in the straight, was strong through the line to win well. They stick with Benbow which is interesting. YOUNG LIAM (3) was beaten a long way here at the Valley last time, he refused to settle and was stuck three-wide no cover throughout. Back to a claiming apprentice is an interesting move, he has plenty of tricks! ZIAVERA (9) ran on hard to win an easier race at Moe when at the top of the betting last start. Will she get back again from the wide draw?
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday November 13, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – MATAS
Race 1: HILVERSTON (4) from
2, 1 and 5.
Race 2: CHROME ANGEL (9) from 10, 4 and 2.
Race 3: MATAS (4) from 2, 7 and 1.
Race 4: STUCHBREE STAMP (1) from 7, 2 and
CONDO’S EXPRESS (2) from 3, 1 and 5.
CRIMSON ACE (2) from 7, 1 and 3.
Race 7: COOLTH (15) from
1, 9 and 5.
Race 8: CATARCTA (7) from
5, 9 and 16.
Race 1: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1200m
HILVERSTON (4) debuted at Moe almost a month ago, he got back but attacked the line well to get within a length on the line. He then went to Mornington and opened at the top of the betting, he sat behind the speed and after making a quick move to lead early in the straight, was a little wayward but strong through the finish. He looks to have plenty to learn but the ability is there for all to see.
HOT WATER (2) was a heavy track winner on debut, last time at the Valley he settled worse than midfield before working to the line well into third. That experience at the track can’t be understated. ILOVETHEGAME (1) is resuming, he won on debut then was only fair going up the straight before going to the paddock. Watch for any money for him fresh. NICOLINI VITO (5) was resuming at Kilmore, he was easy in the betting but bolted in after sitting wide off the track without cover. This is obviously harder though.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m
CHROME ANGEL (9) was big odds when resuming here at the track two weeks ago, she led for a long way over this trip but was run down late. There looks to be plenty of speed here, the reason I have settled on her is the inside gate, Kah should have all the options early.
TWIST OF FURY (10) has won two of three this time in, last start at Traralgon she won by as far as you can kick ya hat after setting the speed and kicking clear to win by more than 4 lengths! It was almost 4 back to third also! BUTTON EXPRESS (4) is resuming, she is having her first run at the track and should be making her own luck up on the speed. THE COMMONER (2) was resuming in this grade and placed two back, she was beaten under a length at her latest after sitting three-wide throughout. It was a brave effort.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 3850m
MATAS (4) is going for three wins on the bounce, both those wins were across the border and both over 3000m or further. Last start she was ridden just behind the speed, improved to hit the lead before straightening and bolted in by more than 10 lengths. She looks to relish the trip and could be a moral?
DAMBULLA (2) was a 2-mile winner last start at Wagga, he made an early move to hit the front before straightening and stuck on well when looking like getting over-run. He will need to be saved for one late short, sharp run. SO ABLE (7) was poor at two runs over 3000m early in the pre, loved the way he hit the line last time but really does need to get the trip better. ALIENATED (1) over-raced when having his first go at the trip last time, he battled into second and if he settles better, will grind into a place again.
Race 4: Class 1 Handicap 1600m
STUCHBREE STAMP (1) was a winner on debut at Sale, he was very solid in the market to SP at $2.90. He showed good speed to lead, kicked at the furlong and bolted in to win by almost 5 lengths with another gap to third. Was that just an on-speed heavy track beat-up?
UNCHAIN MY BIKE (7) gets the beautiful run from the draw, he was here a fortnight ago and held-up most of the straight. He was only beaten a couple of lengths but never got into top gear. CHIEF ALTONY (2) has not missed a place in 6 career starts, he has been very close at all three runs this time in including when beaten as a short-priced favourite last time. He is likely to be giving them a start.
TALAMO (10) drops back from a Listed race in SA last time and gets a few gear changes, he can improve.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 955m
CONDO’S EXPRESS (2) has not won in more than a year, he does race well here at the track and loved his run here three weeks ago. He was slowly away over this jump-and-run trip and settled mid-field before hitting the line well to miss narrowly. If he can get away with them and settle closer, he will be very hard to hold out late.
ROCK TYCOON (3) was a winner at Swan Hill when resuming last start, he was camped behind the leader early before taking over at the furlong and bolting in. OUR GLADIATOR (1) led for a long way last time, she gets a good claim here and should be handlebars down from the wide gate. BRAY STREET BOSS (5) ran on hard to win across the border fresh, he again will get back and needs everything to go right over this trip.
Race 6: BM70 Handicap 2040m
CRIMSON ACE (2) was six weeks between runs before placing at Cranbourne, she was then here at the Valley last time against the girls in a harder race. She was back in the run in the small field and hit the line well enough, I expect her to get the gun run off the inside and the speed to be genuine. Look for her late between runners close to the inside.
DESERVED (7) won at Benalla last time, she gave them a big start and was last in the run, she improved very wide and ran on hard to go past them at the 100m mark and was strong through the line. LORD BOUZERON (1) gets a stack of gear changes, he gets a good claim and will be making his own luck up on the speed. 5-weeks between runs should see him run well fresh. HUMBLE PIE (3) was not beaten far into second last start here at the track, that was only his second start since coming across the ditch, look for him late.
Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1600m
A lot will depend if the first emergency COOLTH (15) gets a start, he will be taking up a good percentage of the market and will go on top. He is resuming off the inside draw, he won his first couple before placing in two straight at Flemington in strong winter races. If he gets a start and is ready to go, he looks a great bet.
VUNGERS (1) gets the visors replacing the winkers, he has a stack of tactical speed and will be looking for the top early. He has not missed a place in 6 starts at the track, if he leads uncontested, he will be very hard to run down. BACCHUS (9) is a last start winner here over the mile, he was very good late but his style of getting back in the run, he needs everything to go right. SERENGETI (5) has to overcome the wide draw, he is flying going for three wins in a row but may have to sit parked.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1200m
CATARCTA (7) is an interesting runner, she was only seen on heavy tracks through the winter before going to the paddock. She resumed at the Bool and was very heavily supported, she sat very wide throughout and kept working to the line well late. She maps a lot better and gets a good claim.
Most of them.
HEARTY LASS (5) is going well with a win and two placings at three runs since resuming but is drawn poorly out on the track, she likes to go forward and her chances will rely on getting cover behind the speed. HELAVABEL (9) gets the booking of Olly first-up, he was good at his only start at the track but a little concerning that his runs have been so spaced. If SAVAGERY (16) gets a start as the fourth emergency and a dual acceptor he comes right into play.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Thursday November 5, 2020
Thursday @ Flemington:
Track: Good 4. Rail: TBA.
Best Bet: Race 1 – NOVEMBER DREAMING
Race 1: NOVEMBER DREAMING (2) from 4, 7 and 6.
Race 2: FAKE LOVE (1) from 6, 2 and 12.
GRAFF (1) from 8, 6 and 7.
Race 4: ADELAIDE ACE (5) from 11,
3 and 2.
Race 5: HOUSAY (8) from 4, 1 and 3.
Race 6: ROCHA CLOCK (5) from 2, 3 and 4.
Race 7: PIERRO BELLE (10) from 13, 3 and 4.
Race 8: MONTEFILIA (1) from 6, 2 and 11.
Race 9: WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) from 13, 16 and 4.
Race 1: 3&4YO Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1700m
NOVEMBER DREAMING (2) was first-up at Geelong a couple of weeks ago on their big day, after getting back in the run she was held-up until the furlong pole, she balanced up and charged home and was running away at the end. She is perfect second-up and has run well at both starts at the track.
NIGHT WITCHES (4) comes down from Sydney, she placed at her first two runs this time in then appeared in the steward’s report last time so am happy to give her another chance. TRALEE ROSE (7) has to step out of maiden grade but wow was she was impressive. She was short odds at the Bool, got back and stormed home to win by almost 5 lengths. TRAGIC (6) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but is very consistent, she maps to get a soft run from the good gate.
Race 2: Ottawa Stakes 2YO Fillies Set Weights 1000m
Tough race with half of the 14 babies coming to the races for the first time. FAKE LOVE (1) looks the best of those we have seen, she won on debut at Caulfield after leading all the way. She started favourite that day 3 weeks back, can she bring that form to the straight?
BUTTER BLONDE (6) won on debut for the Waterhouse/Bott yard, she led in a much easier Bendigo maiden against the 2YO’s, was it just the heavy track she reveled in? TEMPEST CHARM (2) hit the line well after over-racing at the Valley on debut, drawn out wide which may be the place to be. Obviously respect any money for those on debut, in particular NICE FOR WHAT (12) for the Maher/Eustace stable.
Race 3: GH Mumm Century Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
Gee GRAFF (1) looks well in here…. He was one of the better sprinters in the land for the best part of 18 months, he even contested an Everest a couple of years ago. He resumed at Caulfield and stormed home to win a harder race than this, he can carry the 59kg and will be hitting the line hard again.
VILLAMI (8) was scratched in Sydney last week and heads south, she is having her first go up the straight and does get the concussion plates on. She has good speed around the bends, will she take up the running? ANCESTRY (6) is flying winning three in a row since resuming, he has a stack of speed and led all the way over the 955m at the Valley last time.
FIESTA (7) is going for a hattrick of wins, she will be giving them a start but will be flashing late as she did last time here. Back in trip a concern?
Race 4: BM90 Handicap 1800m
ADELAIDE ACE (5) is one of mine, it’s been a while since his last win, I liked the way that he hit the line last time. The key with this stable is if the money comes, he has won at the track and don’t be surprised if the middle of the track and running on is the place to be by this stage of the carnival. Not a lot of confidence.
TINANDALI (11) is an interesting runner having his first run in Australia, hard to know where he is at but must be respected fresh with the Maher/Eustace yard.
BARTHOLOMEU DIAS (3) is second-up, I liked the way he hit the line against the tempo fresh without ever threatening. He is a two-time winner when second-up and should settle closer here. THINK WE’RE DUE (2) gets the blinkers back on, he should go forward and make his own luck in what is his first go at the track.
Race 5: Greys BM90 Handicap 1400m
The best lead I can give you in the greys race every year is to follow the money. With so many different form-lines coming together because of the unique entry requirements (grey horses only), the big fellas that matter when it comes to the betting ring rarely get this one wrong. HOUSAY (8) looks to have plenty of upside winning two of three in his career, he has good tactical speed and will be looking for the top early getting out to the 7 furlongs for the first time. STAR MISSILE (4) won over the carnival here last year and got voted into the All-Star Mile (albeit at a million to one), he goes well enough fresh. ASTERIUS (1) is an interesting runner that has been off the scene for almost a year, you have to think they have targeted this race for his return? SKY PUNCH (3) is first-up, he was a winner at Listed level in SA before going to the paddock and should go forward form the wide draw.
Race 6: Inglis Bracelet Fillies and Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1600m
ROCHA CLOCK (5) has been well beaten at two runs this campaign in Sydney, she will appreciate coming back to this type of race. She was good through the line resuming in what has proven a good form reference, again she was good late last time in a harder G3. Look for her late.
AKARI (2) also comes down from Sydney, she gets a couple of gear changes including getting the blinkers off. She is likely to get further back here, I don’t mind that as she will be saved for one run. I AM ELOQUENT (3) hit the line well at the Valley at her latest, expect her to be camped on the speed here. STROME (4) was out of the winner’s list a long time before saluting at Caulfield. She got further back than what she had been, expect they will ride her cold again?
Race 7: MCCC Country Final BM80 Handicap 1600m
This looks way too hard! If you are going one-out with the shorty in the next, put them all in here! PIERRO BELLE (10) won an easier race last time at double figure odds, she likes to take up a position on the speed. PRES DE TOI (13) will be giving them a start, she has been flying of late but needs everything to go right. EASY BEAST (3) placed at two in a row before just missing a cheque in the Benalla Cup last time. Pikey goes on, he’s riding well. KAPLUMPICH (4) has not won in almost a year and has been up for an eternity, happy to put him in everything with his consistency he has shown recently. He will go forward but needs cover.
Race 8: Kennedy Oaks 3YO Fillies Set Weights 2500m
Hard to go past MONTEFILIA (1). She got back in the Flight Stakes after they advised they were going to ride her closer, she ran over the top of them with the best sectionals of the race. She then went to the Spring Champion over 2000m, after settling mid-field, she angled into the clear and was way too good in the run home. She has to step up in trip like most of them, but the way she has been attacking the line she should handle it if saved for one run.
MIRAVALLE (6) got a mile back behind the top pick in Sydney, she was good enough in the Wakeful and the longer trip should be ideal. Willow sticks with the ride. PERSONAL (2) was beaten narrowly as favourite in the Wakeful but certainly lost no admirers, where will they ride her from the wide gate? VILANCULOS (11) is still a maiden, she was big odds in the Geelong Classic and after being held-up in the straight, was strong through the line. I expect her to be a big improver and a mist for all exotics at the huge odds.
Race 9: Red Roses Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
WRITTEN BEAUTY (6) is a put in take-out job surely? Her only defeat was on debut, her two wins this time in have been breathtaking. She resumed at Canterbury, was heavily backed and after leading kicked away to beat a couple of smart ones. He then came south to the Valley over there feature weekend, she was mid-field and over-racing, but it didn’t stop her from looming up before running away to bolt in by 3.5 lengths, in track record time! Wide draw, tick. Pikey in the last, tick! Load up.
CHIANTI (13) won resuming at Hawkesbury and has been good at two runs since, they wouldn’t bring her here for nothing? AMURI (16) is drawn out wide, she led all the way to bolt in at maiden level last start, they couldn’t see the second horse it was that far back! MINHAAJ (4) is also drawn closer to the outside, gets the blinkers for the first time, look for her late, she loves racing here up the straight.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday October 30, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – WHIPCRACKER WAY
Race 1: SECRET PALACE (5) from 7, 3 and 8.
Race 2: DEEP SPEED (1) from 3,
6 and 8.
Race 3: AUGMENTATION (11) from 4, 3 and 14.
Race 4: WAHINA TOA (8) from 4, 3 and 10.
Race 5: WHIPCRACKER WAY (2) from 9, 4 and 1.
Race 6: THE COMMONER (3) from 6, 8 and
Race 7: TATALINA (12) from
3, 2 and 9.
Race 8: BACCHUS (11) from
4, 8 and 1.
Race 1: Maiden Plate 1600m
SECRET PALACE (5) has only been to the races once, two weeks ago at Pakenham against the girls on a soft surface. She was slowly away, settled worse than mid-field before running on well. She may have been favoured the way the race was run and was big odds, but with a better getaway, she can settle closer and this is not a strong race.
BOBSLED (7) has placed at both starts, he was held-up before running on well last time before again hitting a road-block late. He gets the blinkers for the first time. ORRONG ROAD (3) gets the blinkers off, he has had enough chances but has been hitting the line well, placing at his last couple. CAPTAIN CANUCK (8) has placed at his last couple, I expect him to show more speed and look for the top.
Race 2: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1200m
DEEP SPEED (1) won his maiden on debut across the border in SA. He jumped well enough and drove over early to lead but couldn’t get across and was stuck three wide no cover. He was forced to keep sticking on and was all out on the line understandably.
SHOW SOME DECORUM (3) gets the tongue tie for the first time, he was very heavily backed last time and chased solidly but did have his chance.
VISCACHA (6) is a last start maiden winner, he sat up outside the speed before taking over at the furlong and was strong through the line. WAY TO GO PAULA (8) beat the girls up to lead all the way at Pakenham last time, this is harder.
Race 3: BM64 Handicap 1200m
AUGMENTATION (11) is undefeated after two starts, she won her debut on a heavy track leading all the way, she then went to Kyneton and won again at her first go out of that grade. She led again and was all out, expect her to be shaper at the back-end and very hard to run down again around here if she lobs the lead.
PINTOFF (4) was backed as if there was no settling at the Bool last time and his backers where never worried after he sat on the speed and took over at the 200m to go clear late. The inside is a little worry but with even luck, should go close. INDERNILE (3) placed last start at his first look at the track, he was a real eye-catcher late to get close from a mile back. He will be the one to benefit if they go crazy early. ROTATOR (14) comes in to play if she gets a start as the second emergency.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 2500m
WAHINA TOA (8) looks suited getting up in trip, she should be fully fit here third-up. She was good through the line fresh then went to Cranbourne over 2000m and was left flat-footed when they quickened before working to the line well. She will want a genuinely run race so she can just get going form a long way out.
VIVIREDSKY (4) placed resuming in a Murtoa Cup which was a huge effort, he was good through the line at Geelong and this looks no harder. He should be primed for this third-up. PISSARO (3) was better last time after getting off the heavy track, he will need to improve on his poor record at the track though. ACCORDINGLY (10) doesn’t win out of turn but has been good at her last couple and gets in light.
Race 5: BM70 Handicap 955m
WHIPCRACKER WAY (2) has only lost once in his five-start career, all three wins have been good this time in, leading all the way. He looks perfectly drawn in 7, gets the 3kg claim and should be hunting forward and looking for the top again. Not a lot of time for in-run betting, but if he jumps well and controls, get on again.
HARD ROCK GIRL (9) is first-up off a 3-month break, she was very competitive in black type races last time in. She should have the cold sit and if she can keep up early, she will finish hard. YOUNG LIAM (4) has speed, he was very easy in the betting last time but stuck on well after sitting parked. OUR GLADIATOR (1) doesn’t have a great numerical record this campaign but she does drop in grade and goes well enough here.
Race 6: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1000m
THE COMMONER (3) resumed here last start off a 6-month break, she was poorly away before being hustled through to sit outside the leader. She took over and went for home but was run down late. She gets here second-up off a 4-week break, hopefully she can find the top and looks a great each-way bet at the early double figure odds.
Tough race and no confidence. IT’S KIND OF MAGIC (6) is first-up, she has a stack of speed and assuming that she jumps away with them, should have all the options from the inside gate. HINT OF MINT (8) gets the blinkers off here resuming, she won last start when fresh and has shown that she goes better early in the prep.
If KNOWLES (14) gets a start as the second emergency, she comes right into play here fresh.
Race 7: BM70 Handicap 2040m
TATALINA (12) will go forward and the speed could be on with a couple of the other selections looking for the top early. IN saying that hopefully he takes the sit, he has the draw to do so. He has been a little costly beaten as favourite at all four starts this time in, the flip side to that is the SP profile is outstanding.
LORD BOUZERON (3) gets some gear changes and a 3kg claim, he weakened late last time after making a long run. I expect them to be going forward and looking for the front. CHUCK A LUCK (2) doesn’t win out of turn, he showed more tactical speed to lead last time after getting back in the runs prior to that. Assuming he goes forward again? HUMBLE PIE (9) is an interesting runner who has had one run since arriving in Oz, he was at Geelong and only beaten a length, some would say that he should have nearly won after being held-up close to the line.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1600m
Play wide! BACCHUS (11) hasn’t won this time in but had been consistent before going for a 6-week break. The last few have seen him running on well from the backend, not a huge fan of the Willow to Walker jockey change though.
ABLE ENGINE (4) has the wide draw to overcome, he has the blinkers on which shows intent and should be stamped urgent to try and find the front. ROLLS (8) will also be rolling forward from the wide draw, he was beaten as a very short priced favourite at the Bool at his latest after sitting parked. DESERT DREAMER (1) is another go-forward type, he is 6 weeks between runs and handles the wet tracks. Quaddie players should be putting plenty in.
Melbourne Racing Tips – Friday October 23, 2020
Friday @ Moonee Valley:
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 4 – SO SI BON
Race 1: THINK WE’RE DUE (5) from 2, 3 and 4.
Race 2: WEST WIND (1) from 2, 6 and 8.
Race 3: SANSOM (5) from 4, 8 and 2.
Race 4: SO SI BON (1) from 4,
6 and 2.
Race 5: HUMAN NATURE (8) from 1, 2 and 6.
Race 6: WRITTEN BEAUTY (3) from 5,
1 and 4.
Race 7: BEEHUNTER (7) from 3, 2 and 5.
Race 8: PIPPIE (8) from 1, 6 and 10.
Race 1: Open Handicap 2020m
I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these won, barring maybe the bottom one? THINK WE’RE DUE (5) gets the blinkers back on, he will be going forward. Last start at Moe in the Cup, he was forced to sit outside the speed and stuck on well enough. The inside gate may see him take a sit, but the addition of blinkers leaves me with more questions than answers.
All of them? INVERLOCH (2) doesn’t win out of turn, he led for a long way in the Cranbourne Cup last time. He may get a cheap lead here. SPANISH REEF (3) looks suited by the small field, she is stepping up in trip after being a little one-paced over the mile last time. ONE MORE TRY (4) comes through the same race and was a real eye-catcher late, she has raced well here at the track previously. Tough race.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares Handicap 2040m
WEST WIND (1) is going for three wins in a row. She led and won by 6 lengths at Cranbourne two starts back, she had three weeks between runs before leading all the way again at the same track last time. If she lands on the bunny and is left alone in front, bet again!
AFFAIR TO REMEMBER (2) won at Flemington two starts back, she was slowly last tie but was very strong through the line late. She will be giving them a start again but charging late if the speed is on. LUNAR FLAME (6) was a winner at her only start here at the track, she will also get back but probably needs to be ridden for luck from the draw. OCEAN MISS (8) got back and hit the line behind the top pick last time, Olly goes on, expect her to be a lot closer today.
Race 3: Handicap 1200m
SANSOM (5) is a long time between wins, he goes well fresh and has flexibility. He has a minor gear change, draws well, expect him to settle closer here. It is a very open race on paper, the map looks the most favourable factor.
PARSIFAL (4) will be giving them a start, this stable must be respected when coming east. The last time he was here at the track he stormed home to win easily, look for him late again. SIMPLY OPTIMISTIC (8) has won two in a row, he settled closer at the latest, Willow sticks on. WILLIAM THOMAS (2) needs everything to go right, happy to be against him as he will be giving them a start as always.
Race 4: VOBIS Gold Star Set Weights and Penalties 1500m
It is hard to say that SO SI BON (1) carrying 61kg looks to be well weighted under the set weights and penalties, but he is easily the best horse in this race. Amazingly he has only raced here once, placing in the MV Vase back in 2016. He will be giving them a start, he placed in the G1 Makybe Diva three back with 59kg’s. Moral?
GALAXY RAIDER (4) looks suited getting out in trip, he ran through the line well last time and has a consistent record third-up.
PARMIE (6) will get back in the run, this is no harder than last start, she was a placegetter here at the track earlier in the prep off a tough run. ICONOCLASM (2) was good at Listed level last time, he just doesn’t win enough of late.
Race 5: 0-84 Handicap 955m
HUMAN NATURE (8) ran on hard along the rails here when resuming, he was a winner here at the track at first sight here also. Last time out he travelled north to Sydney, over-raced and got wide and only battled to the line. Expect him to be a lot sharper here third-up.
TONY NICCONI (1) is first-up, he has won 2 of 4 when resuming. He has the big weight to deal with it but will find this a lot easier than his last few runs at Listed level before going to the paddock. Look for him late. FREE OF DEBT (2) is also first-up and gets Olly on, he doesn’t map well and trialed poorly but has shown he can mix it with better fields than this. CONDO’S EXPRESS (6) was beaten a long way on paper in the Apache Cat but forget that margin, he was held-up the last furlong. Expect him to settle closer here.
Race 6: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1000m
WRITTEN BEAUTY (3) won her maiden by 6 lengths in Queensland before going to the paddock, she was then transferred to the Hawkes yard and came south. She resumed at Canterbury 19 days ago, led and after getting it soft enough through the middle, dashed home with the best last furlong of the race to win easily. If she leads, she wins.
HOT WATER (5) was a maiden winner on debut, he was backed well into red figures and after settling behind the speed, took over inside the last furlong before running away for an easy win. He looks to be above average.
VALAQUENTA (1) had every chance resuming behind a smart one, he then got back at Flemington and was only fair in the run home last time, looking a little flat. Expect him to be sharper here today. CHROME ANGEL (4) has won two of four, she was brilliant at her two wins but only fair at the other two. Hard to know if her best is good enough.
Race 7: BM84 Handicap 1500m
BEEHUNTER (7) was only fair resuming at Flemington, he then went to Caulfield and after getting back, ran on hard down the outside at Listed level without really looking the winner. He will find this easier and has experience at the track.
GROUNDSWELL (3) sat up outside the speed at Cranbourne in a BM78 last time and was strong through the line to score, this is harder, but he will be up making his own luck. ADELAIDE ACE (2) has been giving too big a start of late, it’s been a while between wins and expect him to settle closer, as he did in the Alistair Clark when placing here in the Autumn. TITAN BLINDERS (5) looks the leader, he was in front for a long way here at the track at his latest before getting swamped late.
Race 8: Manikato Stakes WFA 1200m
PIPPIE (8) is just an out-and-out flyer, she showed how good she is fresh keeping a perfect record in the Moir, she led and ran them off their feet and never looked like getting run down late. Her record is not as good second-up but has had a month between runs and gets the inside draw. Nothing will be crossing her if she jumps with them, she looks tremendous value on an each-way basis.
TREKKING (1) won the Goodwood last prep, he resumed here in the Moir and ran on well behind the top pick before going to the Everest last week and again hitting the line hard in what was a brutal tempo. Has that taken it out of him? DIRTY WORK (6) won the Schillaci at Caulfield last start, he will be giving them a start but if they go helter skelter and he gets the back of Trekking in the run home, he has to be included. DIAMOND EFFORT (10) was beaten as favourite last start but lost no admirers, love the draw and should only need even luck when the horses in front are tiring.
Sandown Racing Tips – Wednesday June 17
Wednesday @ Sandown:
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 5 – SHAHZADE
Race 1: STANDOFF (2) from
1, 8 and 4.
Race 2: TOYZ ON FIRE (1) from 2, 4 and 3.
Race 3: ART HEIRESS (10) from 6, 4 and 1.
Race 4: ORIENTAL LILY (1) from 2, 6 and 3.
Race 5: SHAHZADE (2) from
6, 7 and 1.
GIBBON (1) from 11, 10 and 4.
Race 7: MAXIMAK (13) from 12, 6 and 11.
Race 8: LA BELLE JUDE (1) from 9,
5 and 2.
Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1000m
STANDOFF (2) was poorly away on debut and never really in the race, she then went to Flemington two Saturday’s ago and stormed over the top having her first go up the straight. Olly replaces Dunn and she does have to come back in trip, expect her to be hitting the line hard again.
DIVINE CAPRICE (1) has already won two races in her career, she won her maiden around the bend at Bendigo then won up the straight a little over a month ago. She will be mid-field or worse in the run and be getting home hard. Watch for any money for the three on debut, in particular SUCCOTASH (8) for the Moody stable and ILOVETHEGAME (4) for Greg Eurell.
Race 2: 2YO Fillies Handicap 1300m
Another race for the babies but just for the girls this time. TOYZ ON FIRE (1) debuted at Wangaratta two weeks ago, she was very easy in the betting and started well into double figures. She was worse than mid-field in the run and after getting to the outside in the straight, ran on hard to win easily. She steps up in trip which looks to suit and can settle closer.
DERIVE (2) comes through the same race as the top pick. She was also back in the run and ran on hard, although she had her chance, they did gap the rest of them. She does meet her 1kg better at the weights off that run also. SEA PRINCESS (4) has only been to the races once, that was on the synthetic track where she hit the line well after being held-up at a vital stage. She gets the winkers on for the first time. Respect any money for the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig first-starter IT’S FRIDAY (3) who has been good at the jump-outs.
Race 3: 3YO BM78 Handicap 2400m
ART HEIRESS (10) was given plenty of time before making her debut, she won her maiden on the heavy track at start two before tackling a much harder race at Flemington last time. It was her first go out past the 2000m and she looked like she will get this trip.
SIGN SEAL DELIVER (6) has been up for a while but is racing well, he was beaten under 2 lengths last start in a race no harder than this and was a well backed fave. He had his chance, Olly stays on. DARGO (4) led but was very plain in the run home when second-up, with that run behind him he should give a sight here third-up. HIGH EMOCEAN (1) has only missed a place at one of her seven career starts, she was a last start winner out past 2000m so the trip should be no issue.
Race 4: 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1600m
ORIENTAL LILY (1) looked right at home on the heavy track last start, she was a mile back in the run before getting to the outside and charging home. He hit the front inside the furlong and ran away for a big win, up in class but if the pace is on, hard to see them holding her out late.
CHARLEISE (2) comes through the same race as the top pick and was arguably as good a run. She was back and wide without cover, ran on well between runners and clearly the run of the race outside the winner. RAPID ROMANCE (6) looks to have come back well with a placing here on the inner track a fortnight ago, this is easier, and she did place at her only other second-up run. GRAND DE FLORA (3) also comes through the same race as the top two selections, she sprinted quickly but hit the lead too early and faded late. She needs to just take the sit and be saved for one run.
Race 5: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1600m
SHAHZADE (2) beat the girls at 64 grade then went to Ballarat on a heavy track and win again after running on from id-field. She was brave in defeat last time after making a long-sustained run in a harder race, she maps beautifully again, and Zahra replaces McNeil. She looks the best of the day.
KEY TO THE MAK (6) will be giving them a start but there looks to be enough speed that every horse should get there chance. She loves the wet as she showed winning easily down in grade last start from the back. WHISKEY SHOOTER (7) is an interesting runner for the Gai/Bott stable that led for a long way in Sydney last start on the heavy track, all three of her wins have been on top of the ground. PURE SCOT (1) placed two in a row before sitting up on the speed and wasn’t beaten far last start in a harder race than this, She should go forward and is a must for all exotics.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1000m
Looking for some value here and I like GIBBON (1) on an each-way basis. He resumed at Bendigo in a harder race, settled mid-field and held his spot in the run home. He then dropped in grade to a 64 @ Ballarat and after getting back, swung wide and ran on hard to win easily. This is a little harder but can’t see why he is 20/1 in early markets, if the track is playing fairly, look for him late.
SWORD OF MERCY (11) deserves to be near the top of the betting coming off back-to-back wins. She was beautifully ridden to win her maiden then again had a soft run to win at her first go out of that grade. She can certainly win but looks way too short getting up to this level, winning two in a row off a maiden win is tough to do! SPLENDID ISOLATION (10) won on debut then was forced to chase hard up the straight at start two. She resumes today, watch the betting for any support.
HE CAN STAR (4) is another going for three straight wins, he gets a good claim and will try and land on the bunny early.
Race 7: BM70 Handicap 1400m
MAXIMAK (13) won an easier race two starts back, after being held-up at a vital stage she dashed hard when clear to win easily. Last time out she was slowly away and only fair here on the inner track, happy to forgive her that run as it was her first go on a heavy track.
CAFFREY (12) was a brilliant winner on debut on the synthetic and after start two, had almost a year on the sidelines. He resumed with a good win at Geelong after being transferred to the Moody stable, he should be up on the speed for a long way from the good draw. HAPAIRA (6) won two in a row before placing on the inside track last time, she has speed and looks the leader. Look for any track bias early in the day, expect her to be well backed if it is favouring those on the speed. MRS O’MALLEY (11) didn’t go a yard (literally stayed in the gates) two starts back then was fair after showing a short sharp burst last time in a harder grade. I like the wide draw as she will get back and be saved for one run.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1800m
LA BELLE JUDE (1) has the awkward draw to overcome, it may just mean we are going to get a better price about one of the best bets of the day. She is really flying at the moment, she placed two in a row before going to Muray Bridge last time and ran on well to score easily. That was at 78 grade in SA and she comes back to a 70 in VIC which is harder, I love the way she kept finding another gear when asked. She will go forward and look for cover, gets a good claim and wherever she settles, assuming she has a horse to follow, will keep coming in the straight.
BOOMSTOCK (9) is very consistent, he has placed at all three runs this campaign and has a good SP profile. He has been $2.15, $2.70 and $6 at those three runs, he is starting to get a little costly.
TAKSU (5) is also drawn out, will go forward and probably try to lead with the near side blinkers on for the first time. MALISEET (2) is another on-pacer that may have to sit up outside the leader, the star apprentice will have to control the tempo from that spot and keep it even throughout for him to win.