March 31, 2020
Tips

Kensington (Wed)

Kensington

Kensington Racing Tips – Wed Mar 18th

We will be at Kensington this Wednesday

Track: Soft 7. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 7 – NIMALEE

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Race 1: 2YO Maiden Plate Set Weights 1400m

LADY OF LUXURY (12) ran on hard to narrowly miss in the Black Opal preview, she was big odds in the main event there at Canberra a little over a week ago. She was three-wide throughout but did have cover but stuck on well to only be beaten just under 2 lengths. It was a good effort in that field.

Dangers:

FAYERRA (11) gets the blinkers for the first time, she has been fourth at all four starts. This is easier than the last two when at G2 level, she may just need some luck off the inside draw. ROCK MY WAND (13) will find this harder but has showed that she can handle the wet conditions. REIGNITE (6) will be better for the debut run, he made up good ground here on the track from a mile back. He gets the winners on for the first time.

Race 2: 3YO Maiden Handicap 1550m

Waller looks to hold all the aces here with what I will declare as the only two chances. DANCING GIDGET (2) gets Bowman to ride replacing Glynn Schofield, the blinkers on for the first time and drawn well. She was ridden more conservatively last time and produced the best 800m of the race to be beaten 2 lengths. TOFFEE TONGUE (6) was in the same race, she ran on well enough after getting back following a COT to go forward? SHADOW GIRL (4) has not missed a place in 4 career runs, she resumed at Newcastle, sat outside the leader and weakened late. LA TIGRESA (5) is honest but may not be in the same class, she was only fair after sitting outside the speed last time.

Race 3: 3YO Maiden Set Weights 1100m

ISABELLA OF ARAGON (7) has not placed at two career runs but gets a huge jockey change with JMac going back on and the blinkers on for the first time. She was slowly away last start, if she jumps with them with the gear change, I can see JMac hunting up and not letting them cross early.

Dangers:

DUENNA (5) is resuming and has won two trials in preparation for this, both of those on a rain affected track. She placed at three of five last prep, she won’t be a maiden much longer. NORTH TREK (4) has placed at both runs since resuming, hard to line up that Victorian form but he dies get the blinkers on, was beaten favourite at the Valley last start. Watch for any money for the Clare Cunningham first-starter BLUEANT (1). He has trialed well winning his last three trials dating back to December last year.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1550m

ZEBROWSKI (6) was well backed at Newcastle around the even money figure when resuming, he got a soft run behind the leader and after being slightly held-up around the turn, angled around the leaders and accelerated nicely to score. He looks to have plenty of upside and maps beautifully.

Dangers:

ALL TIME LEGEND (5) showed a stack of improvement at start number two, sat outside the leader as favourite in a maiden and was way too classy for that field. Harder here but draws to get a soft run. BARACUS (2) has won three of four this time in including a 5-length win when fresh on a heavy track. This is his toughest test but he should be on the speed for a long way. HE RUNS AWAY (1) is probably the most interesting runner of the day. He comes to the Waller yard from Hong Kong, watch the betting with him.

Race 5: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1100m

SUPER EX (1) will find this easier than last start when he was resuming off a long break. He led them up and weakened from the furlong, I like the fact he is coming back in trip and drawn wide, he should be able to get across and get cover. It looks a very thin race, I expect he will be a big drifter in the betting.

Dangers:

COVERT OPS (6) has had two runs back this campaign, he has won both comfortably after perfect rides getting the perfect sit behind the speed. He doesn’t map as well here and looks a good lay if starting under each-way odds. INDY CAR (10) was thrown in the deep-end and contested the Spring Stakes at G2 level before going for a break, he has shown nothing at the trials but don’t be alarmed by that. ORIENTAL RUNNER (2) gets the good claim and will be up on the speed for a long way, his beaten margins have been alarming at the last couple but he is better than that.

Race 6: BM76 Handicap 1400m

GRAND PIANO (7) was resuming here at the Kenso track in an easier race last start and was a well supported favourite. He was well back in the run before peeling off come good sectionals to arrive late for the win. Harder again here but there looks to be enough speed on paper and should be able to settle closer. He was a winner at his only other second-up run also.

Dangers:

PINVINCIBLE (9) is undefeated and now calls the Gerald Ryan stable home. He ran on hard to score when resuming, obviously has plenty of ability but the timing of the stable change worries me a little? HEALING HANDS (8) is a real winner and gets his crack in the city after winning three in a row in the bush, he will be in town soon again as he won his Country Champs Qualy last start! AGASSI (3) was poor last start, he placed at the first two runs this prep, the second of those was on a heavy track. He seems to handle the conditions well enough.

Race 7: BM74 Handicap 1800m

NIMALEE (5) gets a good weight advantage over her main rivals here, she is in good form winning two of her last three. Last start here at the track she had the perfect ride after sitting behind the speed, showed good acceleration when asked for an easy win. This is harder but she maps well again and handles the soft ground.

Dangers:

COSTELLO (1) looks the obvious danger, he has been runner-up at his last three runs since resuming. He handles the wet, drops in class but will lumping the 61.5 kg’s in the wet be too much? WILD IMPACT (10) has no weight, she has the wide draw and will be fitter for the first up run. Up in distance, I liked the way she finished off in an easier race resuming. RE EDIT (2) had no luck when resuming and also pulled up lame so forget she even went around. She also has the big weight to deal with.

Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1100m

Where to look here! Play very wide if you are getting involved in the Quaddie, but on the flipside how good to see capacity fields in Sydney! SAAS FEE (1) was outclassed in the Surround Stakes resuming behind Probabeel and Funstar, those two are superstars and have franked that form. She gets some gear changes but will need to get everything go her way as she will get back. UNGUARDED (4) is another that will get back in the run, she is better than what she has been showing this campaign. Her sectionals were very good late last time. SUPER OASIS (2) will have the tactical advantage over her main rivals, she will be up on the speed for a long way. When most of the field will be chasing, she will be making her own luck. If either of the emergencies get a start they both come into calculation, DAZZLING DAMSEL (15) will get the first crack as the first emergency.

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