October 22, 2019
Tips

Kensington (Wed)

Warwick Farm

Kensington Racing Tips – Wed Oct 9

We will be at Kensington this Wednesday.

Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.

Best Bet: Race 7 – REGIMENTAL BAND

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Race 1: 3YO Fillies Maiden Handicap 1100m

STARLA (1) is likely to be starting in the red for the first of the day, the Waller trained filly is resuming today and has had a quiet trial. She was well in the market at her first prep and not far off the best babies at Group Two level, last prep she was off the map fresh before pulling up with cardiac arrhythmia at career start four. This looks easier. She will be giving them a start but flashing late.

Dangers:

IRISH ANGEL (4) has trialed ok but would need to improve on what she showed last prep, WILLOWHEART (7) is a first-starter and stablemate to the top pick and watch for any money for the Gai/Bott trained debutant RESPECTFUL (6).

Race 2: 3YO Colts and Geldings Maiden Handicap 1100m

Like the first race, it is hard to go past the hot favourite that also may start in red figures FARETTI (4). He has only ben to the races once, that was in the Silver Slipper back in late Feb where he was under each-way odds. He had every chance but was poor and was sent straight to the paddock, he trialed brilliantly prior to that. He obviously has the ability.

Dangers:

ZIEDRICH (7) only had one start at his first prep and resumed at Warwick Farm three weeks ago, was a well-supported fave but dropped out after a torrid run and pulled up with excuses and featured in the steward’s report.  He bolted in at a recent trial and looks the only danger. BONDI BLUE (9) and DOWN TO EARTH (8) next best, but for minor spots only. It looks a race in two.

Race 3: BM70 Handicap 1550m

A small field but it looks more open than the first two. RANCHO NOTORIOUS (2) has been in good form this prep winning 2 of 4, he was big odds in this grade at Randwick last start and overcome trouble mid-race to run over the top of them. He carries the extra 2kg today and goes form Boss to Bowman, look for him late.

Dangers:

LENINGRAD (1) looks the leader, he is still yet to salute out of maiden grade which he did on debut. If he lobs on the bunny and controls the tempo, he will be hard to run down. This looks easier than his last three starts. HIT THE TARGET (4) didn’t have a lot of luck when the runs came last time at Newcastle, he stuck on ok but was entitled to get a little closer. FASTNET CYCLONE (5) is only racing fairly, can improve with Nash jumping on.

Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1800m

DUCHESS OF LENNOX (5) got right out to an Oaks trip last prep, she resumed well two back and wasn’t beaten far at Randwick and had no luck. She then went to Canterbury and was to be ridden closer but still settled mid-field, she ran on ok hanging out in the straight and will be at full fitness here third-up.

Dangers:

ZOURHEA (6) won on the heavy track two back and then chased hard but had her chance last time at Canterbury. BULLET FLY (9) has the wide draw, he ran on well to win last time at Hawkesbury but that form can usually be taken with a grain of salt. MOCAMBO (10) should be fully fit here, he ran some nice sectionals at the back-end last time but will be giving them a start.

Race 5: BM70 Handicap 1400m

CAMP RIFLE (9) has won two of three, his only loss came at Hawkesbury wedged between a couple of wins when he had no luck and probably should have won. Not sure where he gets to in the run but he has shown he has versatility and looks to have plenty of upside.

Dangers:

LIVE THE MOMENT (8) has the inside draw, he won on the synthetic when resuming and has raced at both starts since, he will get back also and hopefully will be ridden for luck. KAECILIUS (7) will be ridden positively by Nash early and if he lobs on the bunny, he will be hard to run down. I doubt he can win if he sits parked so if he doesn’t cross to the rail, maybe hit that pink lay button early in the run. JULIAN ROCK (4) was ok fresh but needs to improve on his second-up record.

Race 6: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1400m

SAINT AMBROSE (8) is a last start maiden winner when resuming, he was easy in the betting that day at Kembla and settled in awkward position worse than mid-field and on the fence. He was held-up early in the straight before angling clear and running over the top of them in some smart late sectionals. He gets the extra trip which looks to suit, love the jockey change also with Clark replacing Penza.

Dangers:

VIENNA RAIN (9) was ridden closer last time after running on hard on debut, the debut win was solid as a very well backed favourite in the red after sitting outside the speed. HOORAY HENRY (6) is also a last start winner at maiden level and was ridden closer to the speed, Bullock off and Collett on? Not for me. BIGBOYROY (5) is still a maiden but has placed at 4 of 5, hard to win out of that grade but went close last time. Tough race.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1100m

REGIMENTAL BAND (10) placed at her first two runs in tough line-ups as a 2YO, she was sent to the paddock and resumed at Wyong after over 4 months off. She was backed as if there was no settling, the official flucs were $1.70-$1.55. She sat behind the speed, eased three-wide and ran over the top. She maps well again and gets a winnable BM70 against the girls, she looks the best of the day.

Dangers:

APPIAN WAY (11) may not have been suited by the way the race was run last time, she can improve with the blinkers on for the first time. SUPER OASIS (12) gets a few gear changes, has no weight and should finish hard. SEGALAS (4) beat the girls in an easier race at Hawkesbury last time, she may have to sit outside the leader here and give the gun run to the top pick.

Race 8: Colts Geldings and Entires BM70 Handicap 1100m

TRUMBULL (3) has won three of six, including both starts last prep. He resumed at Newcastle as favourite last start and although he was a little disappointing after having the right run, he stuck on ok. That was over 900m and he may have just found them a little nippy, out to the 1100m should be more suitable around here and will be up on the speed for a while.

Dangers:

COTERIE (2) has the blinkers off again here resuming, he was tackling much harder opposition last time in work but the margins were large. He has trialed well and no doubt he will be ready to go fresh. BROKEN ARROWS (9) never got a look at them last time, he was well backed in a similar race and had been racing well prior to that. He will be giving them a start and flashing late. LANIGERA (12) was vetted at the start fresh and then missed by 0.11 lengths last time after sitting up outside the speed.

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