Flemington Racing Tips – Thur Nov 7
We will be at Flemington this Tuesday.
Best Bet: Race 6 – HARBOUR VIEWS
Race 1: BM90 Handicap 1800m
With the top pick Junipal racing on Cup Day and an early scratching from today, IMPI (8) goes on top .He was undefeated before having every chance behind the talented Harbour Views last time, he races in the final of the Country Series later today. He will have the tactical advantage over most of them, he is well above average.
MAIN STAGE (6) comes through that same race, he chased hard in the straight after getting wide. MR MONEY BAGS (4) is consistent without getting in the money of late. He should settle closer here today from the good draw and will find it easier than last start in the Sale Cup where he made good ground out wide late.
RESERVE STREET (3) has been very consistent this prep, he hasn’t missed a place in 6 starts this prep. HE has tactical speed and will roll forward early.
Race 2: Maribyrnong Plate 2YO Set Weights 1000m
The feature 2YO race of the carnival up the straight, and it looks a tough one to assess with 8 of the 13 runners coming to the races for the first time. ARCTIC ICE (11) and JERLE (1) look the two best of the raced brigade, of the debutants, obviously respect any money, especially late. Focus in on the Waller runner CASTLECOMER (5) and TAGALOA (10) from the Busuttin/Young stable. Too hard.
Race 3: Greys BM90 Handicap 1400m
The traditional greys race for Cup week, I do like these races as a betting opportunity. Interestingly this year we are tipping one having only his third start BUMPER BLAST (10), he made ground on debut then was a well backed favourite at Sale to win his maiden and bolted in by almost 7 lengths! There has been a winner come through that race (albeit at the picnics), to the eye he was most impressive.
Lots of different form lines come together. PLATINUM ANGEL (1) is the class runner and has to carry the big weight, she placed at Group Two level earlier in the year and is at home in the wet. Olly on, Allen off. FLY FOR YULONG (6) can improve off a fair effort at his Australian debut and should handle the track, RAINMOTH (4) has the awkward draw but is a winner of 4 from 6 lifetime including a solid victory in SA after making a long sustaining run last time.
Race 4: 3&4YO Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1700m
Another huge field, where to look! SOVEREIGN AWARD (10) was a well-supported favourite when beaten into second last start at Bendigo after attempting to lead all the way. See how the track is playing at the half waymark of Day 3, if the fence is ok and leader’s not disadvantaged, she will give a sight.
LOVESEAT (11) brings some different form lines down from Sydney, she has the wide draw but will get back anyway. She has not missed a place from four runs this prep, if the swooper’s are suited, look for the Godolphin Blue down the outside late. ARCTIC SHOCK (4) can improve with the blinkers off and has a good record in the wet, WEST WIND (3) is on the up after winning her first three starts, a little worrying that she is having her first go on rain affected ground though. Tough race!
Race 5: Absolut Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
Is the likelihood of a heavy track the only thing not making BALL OF MUSCLE (1) a good thing here? HE led all but the last couple of strides resuming, was ridden upside down in the Moir where they didn’t use his speed and then stuck on to run second behind Trekking in a Group Two last time after a tough run. He is quick, drops in class and the 59kg looks a gift at the set weights scale?
CRYSTAL CREAMER (2) will also find this easier, he beat home the top pick when fresh and does have an excellent record third-up. He is a winner here at the track, look for him late. BADAJOZ (6) comes through the Caulfield Sprint where he made good ground late, Hughie jumps on and he just may be drawn in the right part of the track out wide down the straight at this stage of the carnival. SOOTHING (11) is drawn the other side of the track and will also be giving them a start, if she can bring the same form that won her a Listed race on a soft track in Adelaide two back she will be hard to hold out late.
Race 6: MCC Country Final BM80 Handicap 1600m
Any other barrier than the inside, and HARBOUR VIEWS (1) would have been a put-in take-out job. The Matty Williams trained gelding has won all 5 races and is set for bigger things than this, his win in the heat was breathtaking and was brilliantly ridden like the best horse. Barring bad luck or the inside being right off, he wins this.
O’TAUTO (4) came through the same heat at Geelong, he was really good resuming running on hard from a mile back. He layed in on the way home and ran past the smart horse Impi, he looks a great place bet despite the wide barrier. STAR MISSILE (3) resumed with a solid win at Sale, he was forced to run wide on the speed without cover and was too classy for his rivals. Where does he get to from the draw though? STARSPANGLED RODEO (6) has not missed a place in 7 career starts, his two Australian runs have been good and he maps a lot better than a few of his main rivals.
Race 7: TCL TV Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1800m
RUSSIAN CAMELOT (10) has the huge task going from a maiden win on debut to a listed race at start two. He won with arrogance that day at Ballarat, sat back before pulling to the outside and running on strongly for a soft win in the end. Straight to the 1800m is a little query but the way he attacked the line, it looks right up his alley.
HIGHLAND JACK (7) took three runs to get out of maiden grade but was impressive in doing so last time after getting a check mid-race before charging over the top. He looks suited getting onto the big track here and gets the blinkers on for the first time. PANCHO (3) comes down from Sydney after contesting the new $1M race last 11 days ago, he also has good closing speed. QUICK THINKER (1) should go forward from the draw, he will find this easier than last start in Sydney behind the Derby favourite and Cox Plate runner-up.
Race 8: Kennedy Oaks 3YO Fillies Set Weights 2500m
Selections: 3 – 1 – 4 – 8
1 – MIAMI BOUND won the traditional lead-up, the Wakeful on Saturday. She settled handy, loomed up and was strong through the line with a big gap to third. She had put the writing on the wall at the previous start making ok ground behind the Derby winner in an on-pace dominated race.
2 – MOONLIGHT MAID just found one better in the Moonee Valley Vase in Soul Patch, he was very well supported in the Derby. She is already a winner here in the Edward Manifold the start prior, a back-marker that should eat up the 2500m.
3 – GAMAY had a torrid run here in the Oaks trial two back but didn’t shirk the task and stuck on well for second. She then went to the Ethereal and was perfectly ridden, ran past them at the 100m mark and was strong through the line. Ryan Moore goes on, she gets a soft run on the inside and no doubt the gaps will come, some of these fillies will be dropping out a long way from home.
4 – VEGAS JEWEL was the one that was close-up in the Wakeful, she loomed up to win but Miami Bound was too good, hard to see anything behind them beating them considering there was more than 6 lengths back to the third horse. Did she run the trip out on Saturday?
5 – FOXBOROUGH was beaten more than 7 lengths in the Wakeful, still a maiden, it is hard to see her challenging. She will be huge odds.
6 – SILENT SOVEREIGN swung wide in the Wakeful but failed to run and was beaten more than 7 lengths. Her only win to date was at Murray Bridge at 20/1, others preferred.
7 – PRESENTLY won her maiden over 1400m to begin this prep but since stepping up against this type of company she has looked outclassed. Beaten more than 14 lengths at her last two, triple figure odds are warranted.
8 – BEAUTY BOLT creates interest, she goes from a mile to the 2500m, her sectionals were super last start, the start prior she had no luck in the Edward Manifold here behind many of these. She gets a couple of gear changes and the JMac jumps on, if she runs the trip, she is right in this.
9 – AMAZING RACE has won both her races at Newcastle, the second of which was last start in Class 1/Maiden grade, they are typically fairly weak affairs. A big step up into the Oaks, she is a little one-paced but may run into a top five spot?
10 – NEVER LISTEN is an interesting runner, she comes out of a Scone BM58 last start where she won by more than 8 lengths! Obviously, this is a huge step up in class but she looks to run the trip no problem, I wouldn’t be shocked if she finished in the first half of the field.
11 – SONG BROCADE beaten more than 10 lengths in the Wakeful, hard to see her challenging and will be triple figure odds.
12 – OCEAN MISS is the roughie that I am tipping may run a big race. I think Michael Walker may take up the running, she was ok after sitting outside the leader in the Ethereal, her maiden win was on a soft track and maybe some daring tactics may prove the difference between an also ran and a top four finish? He is the right guy to do it!
13 – APICIUS looks the likely leader on paper if Ocean Miss doesn’t have a crack, she led them up in the Wakeful and was gone at the top of the straight. She may be better suited taking a sit, clearly the leading tactics weren’t good enough in this class last time.
14 – STICK ‘EM UP won a BM50 at Canberra last start, she showed a good turn-of-foot with the light weight but hasn’t placed in two runs on rain affected tracks. Not here.
15 – VICTORY APPROACH was beaten almost 2 lengths in an Avoca maiden last start, the Michelle Payne trained and ridden filly looks way out of her depth here and is just making up the numbers.
Race 9: Red Roses Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (2) is having her first go here up the straight, but that looks the only concern. She brained them at Caulfield last start when leading all the way, she was strong through the line over 6 furlongs which bodes well dropping back to the 1100m up the straight. She beat Loving Gaby by more than 2 lengths that day, she has since come out and won the Manikato at Group One level at the Valley.
SIZZLEFLY (11) was a scratching earlier in the carnival, she is drawn out wide and is a winner at her only other heavy track start, if the rain is around, she looks great value at huge odds. ABSOLUTE FLIRT (4) is very consistent and has placed at both runs here at the track, she is drawn closer in so watch to see if they are coming wide up the straight in the earlier race. RUBISAKI (9) is resuming, her trials have only been fair but there was a lot to like about her only run here at the track in the Winter where she was a dominant winner. She will get back and fly late, the 1100m may be just too short for her.