Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Dec 14
We will be at Flemington this Sat.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 6 – TALENTI
Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1100m
With all but 2 of the 11 babies on debut, it’s hard to predict with any confidence what they will do charging down the straight for the first time. Obviously the betting is crucial. UNSTOPABELLE (9) was brilliant winning on debut in SA, this is harder but the margins were large. Watch for any support for debutants
STONEFIELD (6) DARKHORSE (3) and JABALI RIDGE (4), among others. Too hard.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1100m
BAM’S ON FIRE (3) was beaten as an odds-on favourite resuming at Ballarat, she got a mile back but flashed home to narrowly miss in a three-way go. She won three in a row last prep going from maiden grade through to placing at Listed level. She looks to have come back well and has placed at her only start at the track.
EQUAL LOVE (1) was only fair last time but didn’t look to handle the track. She looks an improver back on the big track, she won four races last prep! OUR CAMPANA (9) was brave in defeat resuming after she did all the work up outside the speed. She placed at her only other second-up run. CAUSEWAY GIRL (2) looks the only other winning hope, she looked to have every chance at the Valley last time when resuming and doesn’t have as good a record second-up.
Race 3: 3&4YO BM70 Handicap 1720m
WESTBROOK PARK (11) was sent to the paddock after being outclassed on debut at Listed level, since he has resumed, he has not missed a place. He won his maiden at Cranbourne two back then went to the Valley last time and was beautifully ridden behind the speed and charged clear for an easy win. He can take the next step here.
SOVEREIGN AWARD (4) has been good in three runs since resuming, she won by a narrow margin at the Valley last start against the girls but it was daylight to third. LIVING THE DREAM (3) has the inside gate and should have the cold run behind the leader, he bolted in once clear at the Valley last time and will only need luck when the runs come. ADVERSARY (2) was good resuming then raced flat last time in what has been a good form reference.
Race 4: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m
EXCELMAN (8) was a winner on debut last start at Pakenham, he was held-up early in the straight before getting to the outside at the furlong pole and charging home. He gets the winkers on at start two and looks suited by the big track.
ROLLS (4) won at the Bool recently in an easier race, he sat up on the speed and when asked, quickened nicely to run away and win by more than three lengths. TYCOON BELLA (3) is 2/2 lifetime, she won the rich Eureka Stockade last time after leading all the way. She will go forward again and give them something to chase. PRIVATE COUNCIL (1) won is maiden when resuming then went to Sandown Lakeside and was beautifully ridden to win at his first go out of that grade. This is harder again but he maps well.
Race 5: Handicap 1100m
HALVORSEN (7) was resuming here more than a month ago and was brilliant in victory. He was well back in the run over the 1100m, held-up when they quickened and didn’t get clear until the clock tower. He accelerated quickly to find the front and charged through the line. He is drawn out wide which should suit.
CRYSTAL DREAMER (1) is the class runner but does have to lump the big weight, he over-raced last start and was only fair late, go on his brilliant win when resuming at Caulfield beating a much better field of sprinters than this. MYSTYKO (3) will need to improve on his record here up the straight, he is yet to win this time in but has been attacking the line hard. SUPERHARD (5) looks the only other winning chance, albeit it a minor one. He does have a good record when second-up though and will be charging late up the straight.
Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1800m
I am going to make TALENTI (13) my best of the day. The former Kiwi has made a bang since arriving here, he won his first Oz start at the Valley after sitting back and sweeping wide at the Valley and was dominant. He was then there again, settled last, copped some interference but was still way too good for them. This is a lot harder but he is a serious racehorse, we may not see him on our shores for much longer?
SURE KNEE (6) loves racing here as she showed two back when bolting in over the 1700m. That was on a soft track, she was also good at the Valley last time but I was a little wary of her after her first two runs in Sydney. Happy to take her on if she starts at the top of the betting. SIR PIPPIN (7) has the wide draw but has been running on well and will appreciate getting onto the big track. He can be a little one-paced so needs the race run to suit. O’TAUTO (11) next best, but this is his toughest test and there looks to be better run on chances.
Race 7: BM78 Handicap 2530m
DEFIBRILLATE (2) won four in a row to start this campaign, the first couple in NZ before coming across the ditch. Last start at Ballarat he was well back before angling wide, he layed in down the straight but chased hard to narrowly miss. He should be too good if saved for one run.
BARADE (1) is an interesting runner that has had three starts in Australia, he has been ok at his last couple and looks to be crying out for this trip. He will keep grinding home. YULONG RISING (4) has had five runs since coming to Australia and is still looking for win number one ono our shores. He was unlucky at the Valley last time and arguably should have won after being held-up then charging late. POUR VOUS (7) won by a huge margin two back then placed at Sandown last time after having every chance.
Race 8: BM70 Handicap 1200m
KING OF HASTINGS (6) resumed at Ballarat three weeks ago and missed a place for the first time in his career. HE won on debut then beat Sizzlefly at Caulfield later in the prep. He had excuses at that beaten run last time when he pulled up lame. Drawn down on the inside may be a slight disadvantage though and it is his first go up the straight.
THE CLOSER (11) is a dual acceptor that has been good at the jump-outs off a long break, she looks to have come back well and must be included if she comes here. GINGER JONES (4) resumed at Ballarat and on the speed for a long way. TITAN BLINDERS (2) beat him home that day but had the softer run before peeling around one turn.
Race 9: BM84 Handicap 1400m
BUMPER BLAST (9) romped in to win his maiden three back and then won the greys race on Oaks Day. He ran on well at Ballarat last time under the big weight but peaked late, he drops down to 54kg today and Olly goes on.
NOTIO (5) has a good record second-up, he was big odds resuming but made enough ground late to suggest he has come back well from the paddock. The winner of that race has since won again. MORRISSY (10) is very consistent, he placed at the Valley two weeks ago but had no luck in the run, was held-p and then clipped heels before making up ground late. BAG RAIDER (11) is an interesting runner that has had two starts in Oz, he won at the first of those then went to Caulfield last time and was off the track without cover throughout. He gets in light and should hit the line well if he has the right horse to cart him into it.