Flemington Racing Tips -Sat Jan 18
We will be at Flemington this Sat.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 9m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – BANQUO
Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Handicap 1100m
PERSONAL (6) was super when beaten as favourite on debut at Geelong. She was slowly away and hampered at the start, last and three-wide without cover before improving on the turn. She stuck on well to get second although well beaten, clearly was the run of the race away from the impressive winner.
AVENUE OF PLEASURE (4) made good ground against the tempo of the race after being held-up at a vital stage on debut. A lot different here up the straight to the Valley. Forget that PARLOPHONE (5) went around on debut here, there was support for her in the betting but she attempted to buck soon after the start and basically took no part. Give her another chance.
Watch for any money for the first-starter BETTER KICK (1) with Olly riding, interestingly he rode two of the other horses in this race at their last start.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1720m
PIERRLESS (2) is flying this prep winning her last three, she has been racing up on the speed and really never looked in any danger at any of those three runs. It’s a different story here at Flemington trying to go wire to wire but hard to fault winning form.
GREAT DUCHESS (4) made good ground last start without really threatening, back against the girls today she may settle closer and is a winner here at the track previously. RED HEELER (6) is at start six in his first prep which is a big red line for me, but she has shown a lot of talent. She has good closing speed and races well here. RUBY SKYE (5) will also be giving them a start, probably needs to get the back of the favourite in the run to be a winning chance.
Race 3: 3YO Handicap 1100m
BANQUO (4) is first-up and may find the 1100m a little short, but I think he is clearly the horse with the most upside. He was a Listed winner here over 1400m in the Spring and then sat outside the speed when narrowly beaten in the Sandown Guineas last time. The class should see him through.
CONDO’S EXPRESS (1) is resuming, only has the one other fresh run and was second when on debut. First go up the straight, he has a tendency to over-race which is not a good trait in these straight races. Clearly has the ability. ALABAMA EXPRESS (2) was beaten a long way here in the Coolmore before going to the paddock, you only have to look at the horses that beat him to see he was outclassed, Exceedance and Bivouac. DYNAMIC DUO (8) is still a maiden but has placed at both starts, will run on again but maybe wait until he is back in that grade.
Race 4: 3YO BM70 Handicap 2000m
RAPID ROMANCE (7) maps beautifully here and hopefully the leaders can set up a solid tempo. She has placed at both runs since winning her maiden at Moe, looks suited getting out to the 2000m and should be the fresh horse late.
BLOSSOM ON SNOW (1) brained them on debut by 4 lengths after sitting outside the leader, she then went to Caulfield and led all the way for an easy win. Much harder here and has to step out to the 200m for the first time, she can certainly win but no way I would be taking the 6/4 currently on offer. MOUNT MADEIRA (6) gets the blinkers off the first time, he ran on well into second last time but never looked the winner. He will need the pace right on. ROGUES POINT (2) looks the lay of the day, he races on the speed and will need to get the cold sit on the likely leader Blossom On Snow to have any hope. I just don’t think he has as much talent.
Race 5: Kensington Stakes Handicap 1000m
Only six to go around in a black type race up the straight at Flemington? Oh well it is what it is. BOLD STAR (2) charged home to win here two starts back, last time was out to the 1200m and again hit the line well down the outside rail. He has the fitness edge over a couple of his rivals and the small field should suit.
TIME TO REIGN (3) is resuming off a long break and gets the blinkers on, he bolted in to win the Silver Slipper and then was ok in the Golden Slipper at big odds. Has been given plenty of time, has there been some issues? ALL TOO ROYAL (1) resumed at Caulfield on Boxing Day and won the Christmas Stakes at Listed level, he has good closing speed and will be the one flashing late.
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR (5) looks the leader, was outclassed in the Coolmore last start at his only run up the straight. Chance if left alone in front.
Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1400m
WENTWOOD (11) is an interesting runner that is having his first Australian start, he was well backed at Wednesdays abandoned Caulfield meeting, that money is what I wanted to see before stepping in.
TURN THE TIDE (4) would have gone on top had it not been for the woeful barrier, I prefer him to be close to the speed but you simply cannot sit wide without cover and win here at the 1400m. He was brilliant winning at Caulfield two back, if he gets cover, he will finish hard. FABRIC (8) is resuming and win fresh last prep at maiden level, she followed it up with two more wins that last campaign and gets a couple of gear changes here. VONGOLE (13) was left a little flat-footed at Caulfield last start but really picked up again late. He gets in well with the 3kg claim and only carries 51kg, look for him late.
Race 7: Handicap 2520m
HIGH BRIDGE (4) has been runner-up at his last two starts, last time here on New Year’s Day he was mid-field settling before getting a rails run and hitting the lead at the clock tower. He just didn’t seem to run out the 2800m and looks suited coming back in trip. No moral, they can quite often take their turn in these type of races.
YULONG RISING (7) ran on well last start in a race where it was more favourable to be up on the speed. Likely to be giving them a start, love the jockey change with Willow replacing Dwayne Dunn. EL DON (2) is very consistent and beat home the top pick last time, he has the option to lead or take a sit and will keep grinding away. He won’t want it turned into a sit sprint though. THE LORD MAYOR (1) looks the only other winning chance, a winner here last time at his first look at the track.
Race 8: BM84 Handicap 1200m
MONTENEGRO MAN (14) has had two runs back this prep, stormed home at Caulfield fresh to narrowly miss when favourite, then was at the Heath again last time and ran over the top of them in an easier race. Should be suited drawn out down the straight, looks a great each-way bet to nothing.
OUR CAMPANA (5) is going for three in a row, she had the soft run before being held-up last start but showed nice acceleration to score when out over the last furlong. A winner here previously when on the speed, she will be hard to run down with Willow taking the ride. JUST HIFALUTIN (2) loves racing here and looks well drawn out wide, she should be handy in the run but probably needs to get a jump on the top pick when they quicken. CLARICE CLIFFS (10) is drawn on the inside, usually a no-go zone for mine when assessing the straight races. She has a good SP profile but has been costly being beaten as favourite at her last three since braining them at Pakenham by 6 lengths this time last year.
Race 9: BM70 Handicap 1800m
DONNDUBHAN (10) comes here after Wednesday was called off, did plenty of work when on the speed at Caulfield last time and wasn’t beaten far. He led them up and never looked like getting run down the start prior, hopefully he can get a soft lead whilst the big field finds their spots.
BILL THE BEE (14) won an easier race last start after a perfect ride, he maps to get a similar run here whilst a few of the main chances will be off the track. Has to step up in class and first go at the track are an issue. SKELM (4) has been good at the last two since the blinkers went on, a win at Sandown then settled closer at Caulfield and ran on well after being held-up. The extreme gate is an issue, would have been top pick had it not been for the draw. JACK REGAN (1) layed in over the last furlong but was closing hard here in aa similar race last time at huge odds. Gets a good claim, drawn out but will get back anyway, the tempo should be strong for him finish off well again.