Flemington Racing Tips – May 16th
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 2m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 7 – RUPTURE
Race 1: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1200m
GODODDIN (2) won resuming then went to SA for a crack at black type and was only fair in the run home. She was beautifully ridden last time but just found a couple better on the heavy track, she handles the conditions well.
MYSTERY LOVE (1) won a harder race when resuming, she sat back last and ran over the top. She was ok last time on the heavy track but looked a little flat second-up. O’ SO HAZY (6) is resuming off a 4-month break. She has placed at three of her previous 6 fresh runs, she looks the leader off the inside draw, but will that be the best part of the straight? MRS O’MALLEY (9) will find this her toughest test, she had been very consistent but looked a tad disappointing last start. Happy to be against her unless she gets out to double figure odds.
Race 2: 2YO Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
Tough race with most of the market percentage likely to be taken up by those coming to the races for the first time. MISS BOSETTI (9) only beat half of the field home at her debut back on Australia Day at Geelong but forget she even went around. She settled behind the leaders and was held-up the length of the straight. She won a recent jump-out at Flemington.
Look for any money for those on debut, BETTER KICK (3) gets the services of Olly, KOTYS (10) is from the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard and willow takes the ride. PENTANGILI (11) is the other first-starter that creates interest from the Hawkes yard.
Race 3: 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1600m
NOVEMBER DREAMING (6) was a dominant winner at Pakenham in an easier race two back, she was then sent to SA and beaten as favorite in a G2 last time. She had been very consistent prior to that, she can be excused as she didn’t look comfortable throughout. Back on the big track and she goes from Georgina Cartwright to Willow!
LIBRATE (8) will find this harder than last start where she was dominant after sitting parked outside the leader as a very short priced favourite. She will go forward and may have to sit parked again from the wide draw. THEE ONE (14) has not missed a place at 5 career starts, she maps well but gets a negative jockey change with Willow being replaced by Billy Egan. TOP PINS (3) resumed with back-to-back wins before leading for a long way last time at Sandown on the heavy track in a race similar to this. She gets a good claim and will be hard to run down.
Race 4: BM78 Handicap 1600m
DUKE OF PLUMPTON (7) was dominant as favourite when resuming at Echuca, he then went to the Lakeside at Sandown and although he chased hard and made good ground, he was well beaten into second behind a smart winner. He handles the wet tracks well, look for him late.
SIKORSKY (9) was away from the track for almost 18-months, he was good when close-up behind Jumbo Ozaki last time when running on hard from a mile back. DIPLOMATIC MEASURE (10) rarely runs a bad race, his form in SA has been super this prep and will be up on the speed again. HE was very heavily backed in an easier race last time and arguably should have won. SECRET VEGA (6) was poor fresh and very one paced, we saw a different horse second-up on eth synthetic when he won by 5! If not today, look for him next time he goes off the turf.
Race 5: Handicap 1000m
Tough race, EDUARDO (2) goes on top, not on anything he has done lately but on talent alone. Going back a little over 12 months he was near the top of the betting in a Newmarket here before placing in two black type races. He was only poor when resuming but at his best, he should be too good. He gets a claim and the tongue tie on.
PREZADO (4) grows a leg when he comes down the straight, he almost beat Nature Strip a couple of seasons ago here and returned to form here last time here with a win over The Inevitable. ALL OVER BOSANOVA (7) is fresh, she has won twice when resuming previously. She is drawn out and should map in behind them out wide. KING OF HASTINGS (9) is also resuming, he was a w inner at his only start up the straight, albeit over the 6 furlongs. He has plenty of upside taking on the older horses, look for him late.
Race 6: The Andrew Ramsden WFA 3,4&5YO 2800m
OCEANEX (12) went across the border and won the Port Adelaide Cup two weeks ago, it was a reverse of form for her and showed what she is really capable of. Mick Price has a big opinion of her, she should get a very soft run behind the speed and may have too much speed when the pace goes on.
A lot on the line here with a start in the big one on the first Tuesday of November. KING OF LEAGRANCE (2) absolutely brained them in the Adelaide Cup, he was only third-up into his prep and sat back coming with one run and bolting in by a couple of lengths. The Williams crew know how to get one into the Cup! TOO CLOSE THE SUN (7) was dominant winning the Warrnambool Cup leading all the way, it was a brilliant win but it’s a different story leading around the Bool over 2350m to the 2800m here at HQ. DARK ALLEY (9) was well beaten by the top pick in the Adelaide Cup but looks to have come along well with a win at Geelong after sitting off the track throughout.
Race 7: Handicap 2000m
RUPTURE (4) won the Werribee Cup before going to the paddock, he resumed with a dominant win in the Warracknabeal Cup after sitting on the speed. He then came here over 1700m last start, he led all the way and never looked like getting run down. He will be well backed and will lead for a long way. He looks one of the best of the day.
KAONIC (3) comes through the same race as the top pick last start and had absolutely no luck. He was held-up from the top of the straight until well into the last furlong, he hit the line well late and was string after the line. He hasn’t won in a while and has a poor draw but may be worth a sneaky small each-way bet. SCHABAU (11) is an import that has won all three starts here in Oz. He was the next big thing after winning at Listed level, he has obviously had issues being off the track for well over a year. He will need the run and will be monitoring him closely going forward.
If STARCASTER (16) gets a start as the second emergency, he must be included in all bet types.
Race 8: Handicap 1400m
ICONOCLASM (2) has had three runs back this campaign, he placed at the latest two when sitting up on the speed. HE has won three races here at Flemington and draws well for an on-pace runner, you don’t want to be sitting off the track around the long bend that begins shortly after the 1400m start.
A SHIN ROOK (5) went across to SA and won at Listed level three weeks ago, he has a good record second-up and always needs everything to go right. Just how far back does he get from the draw (barrier 18). ACHERNER STAR (1) was very one-paced resuming but showed more tactical speed second-up and stuck on well behind the smart Buffalo River (beating Harbour Views in the process). MORE THAN EXCEED (12) beat home Goddoddin who goes around in the first race last time, he handles the wet tracks well and should run on hard form mid-field.
Race 9: 3YO Handicap 1400m
FINAL MAN (1) has won four of five this campaign and is going through the grades nicely. He makes his own luck and will be up looking for the lead early, he does get up in the weights here but gets the 2kg claim. The wet track suits, go again in play if he gets a soft lead, especially so if the track is playing to the leaders early.
BROADWAYANDFOURTH (2) has the wide draw to overcome which is a tough ask from the 7 furlong start, she is likely to get a mile back anyway. She was enormous in defeat in SA last time, she stormed home and just missed in a blanket finish. Look for her late. BEEHUNTER (3) is another that will be giving them a start, he was held-up here at the track last time at a vital stage before flashing late and just missing. ELUDING (12) was a maiden winner on debut, this is obviously harder, but he does handle the wet and the McEvoy team wouldn’t be sending him here if they didn’t have an opinion of him.