Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Nov 9
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Best Bet: Race 5 – SANTA ANA LANE
Race 1: BM90 Handicap 1600m
MANDELA EFFECT (1) has won 8 of 18 lifetime, the closest he has gone this prep was last start in the Sale Cup. He settled handy, eased three-wide but really did have his chance. This looks a similar race and he draws well again.
RANIER (2) won at Rosehill three starts back and brings down some good Sydney form. Last time at Randwick in the Spring Mile he did a stack of work but still was string through the line, the winner of that race Cascadian ran a ripper on the first day of the carnival. RESERVE STREET (4) was under pressure a long way out at the Valley last time but stuck on well, SUNDAY PRAY (8) comes through that same race and will have the tactical advantage over the other selections up on the speed.
Race 2: BM90 Handicap 2000m
WETAKEMANHATTAN (2) has won both runs this prep, he led all the way here fresh over a mile then set the pace in the Horsham Cup and was never run down. That looks his role again, he did win over this track and trip last prep.
JAGUARY (5) is a dual acceptor between here and SA today after being scratched from the Kyneton Cup during the week, he won three in a row in Adelaide then placed at his last couple, including a good third at the Valley last time. This is his first go here at the track. GRINZINGER STAR (7) is a little hit-or-miss, he looks suited getting out to the 2000m third-up. Last start at Caulfield he was well beaten but did make ground against the pattern of the race. STARCASTER (8) pulled up with the thumps at his first OZ start at Caulfield, he was a winner in the UK the start prior and can certainly run the trip.
Race 3: Springtime Stakes Handicap 1400m
KNICKPOINT (3) debuted back in June with a soft Hawkesbury win, was sent to the paddock and resumed at Newcastle three weeks ago. He was behind the leader before angling clear, showed a nice turn-of-foot to dash to the lead for a comfortable win in a race that has produced a subsequent winner. Willow goes on and he should stay undefeated.
BANQUO (6) was always going to win his maiden at Sale last start, he was cruising outside the leader and was very heavily backed. That may be his role again here. REGIMENTAL BAND (11) comes down from Sydney, she hasn’t had much luck at her two starts out of maiden grade, last start she was held-up most of the straight and never saw daylight. DONE BY NIGHT (2) is a last start winner on the big track at Bendigo and should be suited here, this is harder though.
Race 4: Queen Elizabeth Stakes Quality 2600m
TRUE SELF (5) was most unlucky in the Geelong Cup and was well backed, she was held-up at a vital stage before rattling home to get very close. The winner has since come out and placed in the Cup on Tuesday, black odds looks a steal?
TOP OF THE RANGE (7) has placed at three of four runs at the track, he was a good winner of the Bendigo cup last start and will also get back in the run. CARIF (8) is backing up after trying to get into the Cup last Saturday via the Hotham, he ran on strongly late and probably gets closer if he doesn’t hang in early in the straight.
SULLY (9) was beaten favourite in the Bendigo Cup but did over-race, if he settles better today with the blinkers off, he can run a place.
Race 5: Darley Sprint Classic WFA 1200m
1 – SANTA ANA LANE is one of Australia’s best sprinters and the winner of this race last year. He won the TJ Smith in Sydney in the Autumn before being beaten as favourite in Hong Kong in the Chairman’s Sprint. HE charged home here fresh and then was runner-up in the Everest, you know what you will get with him. Get back and flash home.
2 – NATURE STRIP is fast, very fast. They tried to ride him more conservatively at a couple of runs this prep but it simply isn’t his go, he likes to run! They resorted to that tactic in the Moir and he led throughout, he was a late inclusion in the Everest and ran a ripper after working from a wide gate. If this was around a bend, he would be the top pick.
3 – ROCK MAGIC ran a nice race fresh in the Moir having his first run here from the West as a 10YO. He was good in that but has only won 2/12 when second-up and unplaced at three runs here. No.
4 – THE BOSTONIAN is a Kiwi that won a Group One over the Qld winter carnival, he has been good at three runs this prep without winning but may be drawn poorly back down on the inside. Place best.
5 – MALIBU STYLE is another WA visitor that looks outclassed here. He has been only fair of late and been up for an eternity, he will be huge odds and can’t win this.
6 – ZOUTORI is backing up from last Saturday when he was beaten favourite in a much easier race than this. He races well here and was doing best late after a month between runs, hard to see him winning this at WFA carrying a kilo more than what he did last week.
7 – IN HER TIME won the Lightning up the straight here in the Summer settling just off the speed, she was a little flat the next start in the Newmarket and seemed to lose her dash. She had a nice run in the Everest but again was out-sprinted, just not sure where she is at. She would need to be at her best. Happy to leave her out of everything.
8 – ALIZEE was a brilliant winner fresh in Sydney, wasn’t suited but was brave in the Memsie and then made some ground late in the Everest from a mile back. They seem to be keeping her to the sprinting ranks this time in after failing a couple of times trying her out to a mile in the Autumn, look for her late.
9 – LOVING GABY has every chance but was beaten on her merits at Caulfield two starts back by the impressive California Zimbol who goes around on Thursday. She was then brilliantly ridden to win the Manikato at the Valley, this is her first go up the straight. She gets the big weight relief at the WFA conditions, but I honestly believe she is not in the same league as a couple of others here. She would need to be 20/1 to entertain the thought of backing her.
Race 6: Matriarch Stakes Mares Set weights and Penalties 2000m
Very tough race to open the Quaddie. DANZDANZDANCE (2) was good in the Craven Plate behind champion Happy Clapper last start making ground for the back. AMANGIRI (3) was truck-loaded in the betting at the Valley as if there was no settling, she led all the way, a good effort considering the saddle had slipped early in the race. RONDINELLA (7) maps beautifully, runner up at her last two in Group company, she is still chasing that first Australian win. GREYSFUL GLAMOUR (8) has the wide draw to overcome, she will go forward early as she did at the Valley when winning by 6 lengths last start. This is harder. Play very wide.
Race 7: Chatham Stakes Handicap 1400m
NOBLE BOY (12) is an interesting runner that has won 7 of 11 but is new to this class of race. He targeted the Kosciuszco fresh and ran on well, then carried 58kg in the Goulburn Cup and made ground from last in a race where it was favoured to be on the speed. He drops to 54kgs and will be giving them a start but looks suited to the big straight.
ICONOCLASM (6) won a VOBIS race at the Valley last time after a perfect ride, he was all out on the line there and looks suited coming back in trip. He is a three-time winner here at the track. HAUNTED (5) is a Listed winner last start but maps to get further back today, he is very consistent having not run a place in only three of 19 starts. He will need cover though.
WIDGEE TURF (2) races well here but just may need a little luck off the rail when the runs come. He has good closing speed.
Race 8: Mackinnon Stakes WFA 2000m
The Mackinnon seems to have settled in its place at the final day of the carnival, after what we saw MELODY BELLE (15) do on Day 1 of the carnival it is hard to see her not repeating. The Kiwi has won 15 of her 25 runs, sat back and charged home here over a mile last Saturday. Any rain around and she looks a moral?
MAGIC WAND (14) is backing up from the Cup on Tuesday where she wasn’t far away, back to the 2000m I expect they will roll forward. Her run in the Cox Plate was enormous, no rain and she looks right in it. CAPE OF GOOD HOPE (13) was a good winner at his Australian debut then was very flat in a fast run Cox Plate, I expect improvement here third-up. KING’S WILL DREAM (8) won the Turnbull here two starts back and was ok in the Cox Plate, it would make a great story to see him win after the setbacks he has overcome in the last year. What a great race.
Race 9: Grand Handicap BM80 1100m
SCREENAGER (16) has to take a big step up in class but she can stay undefeated after ab brilliant win at Bendigo at start two. She was held-up early in the straight before finding her rhythm again and storming home along the inside. She looks to be drawn in the best part of the track, look for her late.
MORRISSY (7) was over the flying 955m at the Valley last time and only got going late, he looks suited getting out to the 1100m here second-up and is drawn towards the outside. POISED TO STRIKE (2) runs well here with two wins from three, he was unlucky resuming then was run down in the last few strides at Randwick last time. He is also drawn well out in 20 before the scratching’s. ESPERANCE (1) found it too short at the Valley resuming, he gets some good weight relief with star apprentice Teo Nugent legging up. He will be flashing late.