Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Nov 2
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 2 – FLIT
Race 1:Handicap 1200m
ZOUTORI (4) was placed in the Gilgai behind the best sprinters in the land last start, only beaten to the line by Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane. She gets down to 57.5 kgs here and looks very well in at the weights, she races well here up the straight and although she will be giving them a start, will be flashing late. She will get us off to a flying start on Cup week.
VIRIDINE (3) was good in the Moir resuming, he then ran on hard behind Trekking and Ball Of Muscle in the Schillaci last time. He hasn’t placed at two runs up the straight, look for him late. ORDER OF COMMAND (6) will be giving them a start but races well here up the straight, RENEWAL (7) is racing well, he will find this harder and is having his first go up the straight.
Race 2: Wakeful Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 2000m
The traditional lead-up to the oaks and it looks a put-in, take-out job with FLIT (1). She has been great this prep, she ran on hard over the unsuitable shorter trip fresh then had no luck at Caulfield second-up. She was very solid in the betting in the Thousand Guineas and wound up strongly to win, she looks rto good for her rivals.
VEGAS JEWEL (5) looks the obvious danger, she won her first two starts before running on hard in the Ethereal Stakes last time from a mile back. She should run out the 2000m again and looks to have a bright future, just a shame she runs into the star Godolphin filly. TISANE (7) is a stablemate to the favourite and has to step up a stack in class but will run the trip and looks to be on the up after a Newcastle win last start. WALKING FLYING (9) had no luck in an easier race last time and gets out to the 2000m for the first time, the way she attacked the line at her latest when in the clear, she should run it out well.
Race 3: Carbine Club Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1600m
A lot was made of Raquel Clark being “dropped” for Hugh Bowman on DALASAN (1) in the Caulfield Guineas, he did a mountain of work early three wide and stuck on well from the horror draw. He was a brilliant winner here up the straight fresh, gets the blinkers off today and from the better draw, should be back in the winners stall again.
GROUNDSWELL (2) was ok in the Guineas but had his chance, CONQUEROR (4) chased hard from a mile back but should settle closer here from the inside gate. HEIRBORN (6) brings a different form line to most of these, he won his first two before running on hard fresh last time in a race where it was preferable to be up on the speed.
Race 4: Hotham Handicap 2500m
DOWNDRAFT (1) was having his first Australian start when beaten as a 3/1 chance at the Valley in the Gold Cup. He was a two-time Listed winner back in the UK, he will be on the pace for a long way.
HUSH WRITER (4) won the St Leger in Sydney last start when leading when leading all the way, you know what you will get with him, he will go forward and a lot will depend on how much work he has to do early. THE CHOSEN ONE (8) was a good winner in the Herbert power and then made good ground late in the Caulfield Cup after never getting into the race.
YOUNGSTAR (9) has the potential but needs to start showing it, it has been a long time since he has won. He was ok in Sydney last time.
Race 5: Empire Rose Stakes. Fillies And Mares WFA 1600m
MELODY BELLE (2) is a star Kiwi, she has won 14 of her 24 races including her last 3 at Group One level. The last two have been absolute gap jobs, she has an awkward draw but if she brings that NZ form here she should be winning this.
SAVATIANO (4) chased hard when resuming up on the speed then went to the Tristarc at Group Three level and bolted in last time at Caulfield. .She has the wide draw butg good tactical speed and will be carving over early. AMPHITRITE (5) may be the forgotten horse, she hasn’t got into her last two races but the way she powered through the line from a mile back was impressive fresh. She hasn’t won in a while but the talent is there. POHUTAKAWA (9) Had the gun run two starts back and was favoured the way the track was playing when narrowly missing at Flemington, she also comes through the Tristarc where she had no luck until the final furlong where she got out and ran on strongly.
Race 6: Coolmore Stud Stakes Set Weights 3YO 1200m
Why are we getting such a good price about BIVOUAC (2) here? Thhe Godolphin colt was a brilliant winner in the lead-up to the Golden Rose then did all the work outside the leader to win that 3YO feature. She came south for the Manikato last week at the Valley and was a good thing beaten after giving up his tactical advantage and was held-up back on the inside when the runs came late. This is his first go up the straight, he is a star and will be winning this.
COSMIC FORCE (5) is very consistent, the only time he has missed a place in his short career was in the Slipper. He has speed and will be hard to run down. EXCEEDANCE (6) has not missed a plce in his five starts, he was brilliant resuming in the San Domenico from the back showing a great turn-of-foot. He gets the blinkers for the first time, will be stalking and flashing home. LIBERTINI (12) was the spruik horse early in the Spring, she won her first tow then had her chance when a beaten favourite in the Tea Rose last time by Funstar and the potential star from NZ Probabeel. Happy to take her on though at her first go up the straight. What a race!
Race 7: Victoria Derby 3YO Set Weights 2500m
1- SHADOW HERO (10). The Mark Newnham trained gelding has been the favourite for this for a while and has had the perfect lead-up. Two-back at Rosehill he showed a dazzling turn-of-foot to bolt in in the Gloaming and then lost no admirers winning the Spring Champion Last time, the second horse that day was the Cox Plate runner-up Castelvecchio. Hard to beat.
2- SOUL PATCH (2). Although well beaten in the Caulfield Guineas two back he hit the line well, then went to the Valley in the Vase on the weekend and bolted in by 2.5L with almost 4L back to third. Not out of it and will be well in the market, but happy to be against him.
3- THOUGHT OF THAT (1). Could not have been more impressive winning his maiden by 8L at Donald, went to Caulfield in the Classic and led all the way courtesy of a brilliant front-running Linda Meech ride. She has been replaced by Mark Zahra for this? Hard to beat if he gets it soft in front.
4 – WARNING (11). I loved his run in the Caulfield Classic, he was forced to make a long run wide whilst the winner was off and gone up in front, he ran some good sectionals and was clearly the best of the run-on horses. My top pick with the huge jockey change of Olly replacing Martin Harley
5 – SERIOUS LIAISON (7). He is having his sixth start at prep number one which is a little concerning, he was held-up in the Vase at the Valley last start behind Soul Patch but he was entitled to get closer. Place best.
6 – HUNTLY CASTLE (6). He was ok behind Warning two back but failed to make any ground at Caulfield last time. Not many horses got into the race and he should run the trip. Place chance.
7 – INDEPENDENT ROAD (6). He was good behind Warning two back when forced to do a lot of work, he over-raced badly last time in the Vase up on the speed and was the first beaten.
8 – LONG JACK (16). He may have run his race before the start in the Super Impose two back, he then went to the Geelong Classic on Cup Day, was held-up until the furlong pole before getting out and bolting in. He was strong through the line, Willow goes on and hopefully they save him for one run. Second pick.
9 – CRAFTSMANSHIP (12). He had a soft run when winning at Listed level in SA two back, was big odds in the Vase, had excuses and over raced but hard to know where he will lob from the draw.
10 – SOUTHERN MOON (10) was beaten as favourite in the Geelong Classic. He was up on the speed, three-deep without cover for a lot of the run and after hitting the front inside the furlong, was nabbed late. He was brave in defeat but I think he will have a similarly tough run again here.
11 – RELUCENT (11). He is still a maiden after 6 starts and has been up a long time, he was beaten favourite in the Geelong Classic when up on the speed, he stuck on ok but doubt he will run the trip at this stage if the pressure is on.
12 – HE IS (15). His maiden win was fair early in the campaign, beaten a long way at his last two but was well in the market in the Geelong classic and didn’t have a lot of luck. Too hard from the draw.
13 – TRANSLATOR (3). Still a maiden and although he wasn’t beaten far in the Geelong Classic, he was triple figure odds. Looking elsewhere.
14 – NAVARRE (9). Outclassed. 8 start maiden that has only placed twice. No.
15 – SIGN SEAL DELIVER (14). Poorly drawn, he is a lightly raced maiden lining up for career start number four. Big odds in the Geelong classic, can improve but will be big odds again. Throw him in the exotics for sure.
16 – LUCKY EDWARD (5). Unplaced and well beaten at all 4 starts. Will be 500/1 on the exchange no doubt. Just making up the numbers.
Race 8: Kennedy Cantala Quality 1600m
Where to look here! ROCK (13) won his first three starts this prep and was going through the grades well, he was a $10 chance in the Epsom last time and didn’t have much luck early in the straight. He is drawn out but will get back anyway, I can see the speed being on and him finishing all over the top.
It’s been a long time between drinks for NIGHT’S WATCH (8) but he never runs a bad race. He was held-up in the Toorak last start before hitting the line well, the start prior he was good along the inside late behind Mystic Journey. He doesn’t have a great record here at the track but this looks easier. FIERCE IMPACT (6) was a brilliant winner of that race after running on hard from mid-field, ROYAL MEETING (5) is an interesting runner, he won his first two starts in the UK before coming here, he placed as favourite in his Australian debut. He was a little one-paced but will take plenty from that run.
Race 9: Begonia Belle Stakes Set Weights and Penalties Mares 1100m
MANICURE (1) is having her first run up the straight, she was perfectly ridden for a fresh win at Caulfield then sat up on the speed but had every chance when beaten there last time. Her pattern of racing looks suited to the straight track, she should be camped behind the leaders and ready to pounce.
TOFANE (2) won that race that manicure came through last time, she is also having her first go here at HQ up the straight. She will get back and run o hard but meets the top pick 2kg worse at the weights. PIPPIE (4) has the wide draw but that may be the best part of the track, she makes her own luck out in front. Although she has been flying this prep, she has been favoured by some tracks that have been advantageous to be on the speed. HUMMA HUMMA (5) was well backed to win last start at Listed level, another back-marker that will be flashing late!