Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Oct 5
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 9m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 6 – SUNLIGHT
Race 1: Maribyrnong Trial Stakes 2YO Set Weights 1000m
Only a small field of babies doesn’t make it any easier with 4 of the 6 un-raced. DIVINE CAPRICE (6) looks the two that have been to the races before, she was held-up when the runs came and hit the line well to narrowly go down on debut. The extra 100m looks to suit.
MILDRED (5) won that race here last week, she was also good through the line after a slight traffic problem at the 400m mark. Watch the betting with the un-raced brigade, particularly with DEEP SPEED (2) from the McEvoy yard and BOOM DADDY (1) from the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig team.
Race 2: Paris Lane Stakes Handicap 1400m
MUSIC BAY (7) resumed at Caulfield in mares grade and was well backed. She had a torrid run wide and no cover, hit the front early in the straight before getting run down in the final strides. It was a brave effort and she maps much better here.
It looks a great race. DEBT AGENT (1) is a former Singapore galloper that was a 7-time winner Group winner there racing under the name Debt Collector. He is an interesting addition and the betting should be monitored. VIOLATE (3) didn’t do much through the Brisbane carnival but goes well fresh and ROMANCER (6) has been up for a long time but is very consistent. He should have the perfect sit on the rail behind the leaders.
Race 3: Poseidon Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
BROOKLYN HUSTLE (13) beat home Yes Yes Yes on debut so she obviously has a stack of ability. Her second prep saw her only beaten 1.4 lengths in the Blue Diamond before going to the paddock once again. This is her first go up the straight, she will be giving them a start but looks to be drawn in the best part of the track.
WAYUPINTHESKY (10) won at Listed level last time, that was here up the straight at the same trip. She is drawn out which should be no disadvantage and should be handy. EXCESS FUNDS (7) gets the winkers off and has been given a 7-week freshen up since being beaten up by Bivouac at Caulfield when well in the market. HAWKER HURRICANE (2) showed a stack of potential as a baby but is becoming a non-winner, at the huge price he is a must throw in to all bet types. I am sure his best is good enough here.
Race 4: Blazer Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
FIDELIA (8) was well backed to win the Lets Elope here three weeks ago, she had a nice soft run back in the pack before making her run. She wasn’t given much room early in the straight before going back closer to the rail and getting a split and attacking the line to run third beaten a half length. She meets a similar line-up here and only needs even luck.
ANGELIC RULER (6) is still yet to win since coming East but has placed at her last four runs, she has won both her second-up runs and maps well and looks a huge jockey change from Yendall to Oliver. POHUTUKAWA (5) was runner-up at G1 level in Qld over the winter, resumed as a beaten fave at Newcastle but was good against the tempo of the race. SAVATIANO (4) has been given a couple of quiet trials leading into this, she bolted in at G3 level in Qld over the colder months and then was close-up in the Tatts Tiara. She has good tactical speed.
Race 5: Super Impose Stakes 3YO Set Weight and Penalties 1800m
Wow, what a race, where to look. Thankfully it is not a leg of the Quaddie as you would probably need to put 10 of them in it! ADELAIDE ACE (5) won his maiden in WA before coming here for the Derby Trial last week. He was off the track throughout but had cover, ran on well and was a tough win. On the quick back-up he has been proven at the trip and track now.
THE LIFELINE (4) looks the leader, love the jockey change with Meech going on. Expect that he will be kicking a long way into the straight with the blinkers off for the first time. INDEPENDENT ROAD (3) gets out to the trip for the first time, he hit the line well here at the track over 7 furlongs last time. He also gets the blinkers for the first time. HUNTLY CASTLE (2) brings another different form line to the race, he will be giving them a start and has a win here at the track and trip.
Race 6: Gilgai Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
This really looks SUNLIGHT (7) race to lose. She only fair in Sydney against the Everest crew resumiing, then went to the Valley last week for the Moir where she was under pressure a long way from home. She stuck on well and was probably in front 50m after the post, she loves it here up the straight and is drawn well out wide.
SANTA ANA LANE (1) is a star but would prefer him if he were not fresh. He won the TJ Smith in Sydney before taking on the world in Hong Kong, he was never in the race and did well to finish so close on the international stage. He doesn’t have a great record here at the track, although it is always at the top level. ZOUTORI (4) is drawn out and will charge home, this is another step up for him. I AM EXCITED (9) was ok in Sydney resuming but looks a place chacne only.
Race 7: Turnbull Stakes Set Weights and Penalties 2000m
MR QUICKIE (3) is perfectly suited here to Flemington and looks one of the better bets on the card. He has come back well after his Derby win in Qld, and looks set for a stellar 4YO season. He was a real eye-catcher when resuming over a mile here last time and the extra distance looks to suit.
KINGS WILL DREAM (8) has had two runs back and is really looking for this trip, hard to see him beating the top pick after the last time they met but he is certainly an improver. FINCHE (6) was brilliant in Sydney against an ordinary field and will keep grinding away. His main target is still in a couple of weeks though. Obviously MYSTIC JOURNEY (4) will be there and thereabouts but I honestly can’t see her starting favourite. She is out to the 2000m for the first time, looks worse off at the set weight and penalty conditions back from WFA and is drawn out. She couldn’t run past a 100/1 chance over a mile, how is she going to hold off the swoopers here!
Race 8: The Bart Cummings Quality 2520m
One set of connections will be making plans to be here on the first Tuesday in November as the winner is straight into the Cup! One bloke that does know what that’s all about is Lloyd Williams who has KING OF LEOGRANCE (9) engaged. The import has had three runs in Oz, placed at his first two before a horror watch here three weeks ago and one that Olly would rather forget. He was held-up all the way until the clock tower when he got out and flashed home late to narrowly miss, no doubt he should have won. They have stuck with Olly, he won’t make that mistake again.
SURPRISE BABY (3) won the Adelaide Cup last prep, he worked home well fresh at WFA conditions and looks better suited here. He may still need further but will keep coming. WOLFE (10) didn’t have much luck at his first trip south of the border, with Meech engaged he should be taken straight to the front today. SUPERNOVA (11) was one-paced in Sydney last time but is looking for the trip, he will keep grinding away.
Race 9: Edward Manifold Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights 1600m
MIAMI BOUND (7) looks a star in the making, she resumed with a brilliant win at Bendigo when she had no luck and wasn’t entitled to get up. She was there again last time at BM70 grade for the girls and came from last with a devastating turn-of-foot to run them down. She looks perfectly suited to the big track here.
ORIENTAL LILY (4) has the wide draw but will get back anyway, she has been very good but this is a step up in class. Look for her late as I expect the speed to be on. BONVICINI (2) is a last start black type winner in the Morphetville Guineas, it was a beautiful ride but she will need a peach from Meech from the draw here. SUBPOENAED (11) was outclassed in Sydney last time but this lot don’t appear to be as strong. My plan for Quaddie takers would be Miami Bound one out and then take a saver with the others in a second Quad.