Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Sept 14
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
Best Bet: Race 5 – DALASAN
Race 1: Handicap 2500m
KING OF LEOGRANCE (7) is one of four Lloyd WIlliams runners engaged here, he has had the two runs in Oz since arriving from Europe. He ran on well into a place first-up then appeared to have every chance when doing the same last time. No doubt there will be a stablemate asked to inject the pace, look for him late.
HARRISON (6) is a stablemate that comes through that same race and also ran on well. He was fresh last time and we have seen him assume a front-running role over this track and trip before. CALIBURN (8) is new to our shores, he has only been off the track for 9 weeks so the fitness levels should still be thereabouts. ANOTHER COLDIE (2) looks the best of the Australian bred horses, he ran on hard to win at Caulfield after the Williams team set-up a hot tempo that backfired on them.
Race 2: Cap D’Antibes Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1100m
ABSOLUTE FLIRT (2) was second-up in a harder race at Caulfield a month ago, she had to work hard and was three-wide most of the race without cover before booting for home and being run down late. She was unlucky the start before that when resuming, usually luck doesn’t play a role in these straight races.
ATHIRI (3) was good resuming in Sydney then looked a little flat last time against some nice 3YO’s, she is drawn out wide which should be no disadvantage. VINCERE VOLARE (4) is a Queenslander that was poor in the Slipper last time but they obviously have an opinion of her. She has trialed ok and is 2/2 when resuming.
SEATONIC (8) will find this a sharp rise in grade but she has won three times this prep, the latest she had to do it solo three-wide without cover. She is going through the grades well.
Race 3: Exford Plate 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
TENLEY (11) and LA TENE (12) are stablemates from the Cummings yard for Godolphin. There is a lot being said about how this stable is not going well at the moment, but I am happy to say one of these two can win. They are both drawn out which is a little concern, but they both have positives coming into this. Tenley will find this a lot easier than taking on Libertini like she did resuming and did win at her only other second-up run. La Tene resumed at the Valley three weeks ago and was hitting the line well, she is already a G2 winner here at the track and distance.
ROCCABASCERANA (3) is undefeated and the real X-factor, she won by 6.5 on debut and then more than 3 at BM70 last time, both in SA. She may just be a superstar and blow them away? I do like to see money for these SA raiders though when they come here. PEIDRA (4) next best, her only defeat was last start where she had to sit wide without cover at Caulfield and wasn’t beaten far behind Super Seth.
Race 4: The Sofitel Handicap 4YO & Up 1400m
ROMANCER (2) was perfectly ridden to get the chocolates at the Valley last time, his run here th start prior was huge after sitting three-wide no cover on the speed. He maps to get a soft run behind the leaders today.
ROX THE CASTLE (10) will be looking for the top from the wide gate, his win at The Valley was good but he was entitled to be the way the track was playing. Will we finally see TARWIN (14) back in action, he looks to have un-tapped ability but has been off for a while. He will also be giving them a big start. ANTAH (9) was winning everything last prep, his two runs back have been fair only but he does have a good third-up record. He will need to get the back of one of the other fancies in the three-wide trail approaching the straight.
Race 5: Danehill Stakes 3YO Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
DALASAN (5) looks to be in for a real big Spring, he probably should be undefeated in 4 career starts. The only loss came here over the 7 furlongs where he had to sit wide throughout, hung n badly in the run home before charging late to just miss. This is his first go up the straight but drawn the middle of the line, should have cover and finish too well.
SUPER SETH (4) resumed with a dominant win at Caulfield and looks to come back well. He was perfectly ridden that day, bolted in second-up last time but is also having his first go up the straight. DUBIOUS (2) will find this easier than against the likes of Bivouac and co resuming, YOURDEEL (1) is an interesting Kiwi having his first Australian start. He has won 4/6 across the ditch, is already a dual G1 winner over there and never missed a place.
Race 6: Let’s Elope Stakes Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
MY PENDANT (7) will find this harder than her last two wins, but she looks suited the way the race maps on paper. Being drawn wide here at the 1400m is a death trap unless you can get cover, the sped looks genuine so I can see WIllow not having any problem there. With the back of the right horse she can win again, look for her late.
FIDELIA (9) had won four in a row at the back-end of her last prep before going to the paddock. She resumed behind the promising Pippie two weeks back where it was a huge advantage to be up on the speed. She ran on well after being held-up, take them both here and you should be profiting on the race. MISS SISKA (8) was tackling harder races when last in work and has a good record fresh, FUNDAMENTALIST (6) should have a tactical advantage over those we have already mentioned, she will need to pinch a break early in the straight.
Race 7: Makybe Diva Stakes WFA 1600m
SCALES OF JUSTICE (4) bolted in in the Bletchingley resuming, was beaten as favourite by an impressive winner in SA at Group Three level two back but lost no admirers after sitting three-wide no cover. Two weeks ago at Caulfield in the Memsie she ran on hard from mid-field to win comfortably. I like the draw here, I think he will land in front of the favourite and be off and gone.
Clearly MYSTIC JOURNEY (13) is the one to beat. She has taken everything before her in recent times, she was super resuming but did have the race to suit. She has had an interesting prep so far with races she has missed or elected to not go to, wide draw, 1600m, she would want cover. Hard to see her starting any shorter than the $2.20 she is now on Wednesday? Nothing else can win, NIGHT’S WATCH (10) was ok resuming and didn’t have a lot of luck and KINGS WILL DREAM (7) was solid resuming in Sydney but will find the top two a little sharp.
Race 8: Bobbie Lewis Quality 1200m
Tough, tough race. MALIBU STYLE (2) has been up for an eternity it seems but the runs at the back-end of the prep have been spaced. He has had 5 weeks since his last run, that was a good effort up the straight here where he tried to lead all the way. Love that he is drawn wider here and hopefully takes a sit.
STREETS OF AVALON (5) just found them too nippy last start when resuming, he was huge odds in a much harder race but ran on ok without doing any work. GLENALL (9) comes through that same race but came wide and ran on ok, RESIN (10) is resuming, he hasn’t won in a long time but has the ability. Play wide in this leg of the Quaddie.
Race 9: Handicap 1700m
HANG MAN (14) was really good over an unsuitably shorter trip when resuming last start, her second-up form is good also with a win and a placing from two tries. He may still want further but the big field should ensure a solid tempo, look for him late. He was a winner last time he was here at HQ last prep.
MOSH MUSIC (13) has the wide draw, she has versatility and would have been the top selection if I had any idea where she would be in the run! She won four of five last prep and right out to the 2500m, I hope they ride her positively early and look for cover. CAPTAIN COOK (6) has had two runs since coming to Oz, He hasn’t won in more than two years but should be at peak fitness now. He looks a little one paced and won’t want it to be a sit-sprint affair.
VOW AND DECLARE (5) is resuming straight into the 1700m, he won the G3 Tatts Cup over 3000m last start so the trip is no issue. He will probably go forward and keep grinding.