Flemington Racing Tips – Sat Aug 10
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Soft 5. Rail: Out 10m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – JUMBO OZAKI
Race 1: Handicap 2530m
NOT A SINGLE CENT (6) won here two starts back, he had no luck when the runs came and only got out over the last furlong and ran on hard. He then was at Caulfield in a tough 3YO race and as left a little flat-footed but stuck on well. He drops a stack in weight for this and Meech steps up to ride.
SOPRESSA (2) looks the obvious danger after her nice win two weeks ago in a race a few of these contested. She sat up on the speed and was too strong, no doubt she will be going forward early again. There looks to be a couple of others that will be positive early, SASKO (3) is one of them but hard to see him turning the table on the result a fortnight ago. HUSH WRITER (1) is an interesting runner resuming, straight into this fresh off a 2-month break would be a great training performance. She has the class but may just need the run.
Race 2: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1400m
HEIRBORN (3) was confidently ridden to win his maiden at Bendigo a fortnight ago, he was slowly away before improved wide on the turn and ran on well to prove too classy. This is obviously harder but the big track suits, look for him late.
It looks a good form reference going forward. IGNITING (4) won’t be a maiden for much longer if he can continue to reproduce his last start effort at Caulfield. He was held-up at a vital stage before getting to the outside and thundering through the line. SANSOM (1) has won three in a row, he bought the good synthetic form to the heavy track last time and lead all the way, harder to do that here at Flemington. MAUZI (2) gets the blinkers on and was a little unlucky behind Sansom last start, she was beaten favourite that day so deserves another chance in an open race.
Handicap Race 3: BM70 1200m
A capacity field, settling on the exciting JUMBO OZAKI (12). Those that saw his debut win were gobsmacked at the ease of it, he then won at Bendigo as a very short priced fave before coming here last time. He was held-up at a vital stage and only got clear at the furlong before savaging the line and arguably should have won. He has trialed nicely, he is a future star.
MAGNA BELLA (9) was ok in the LIghtning last start, has the widest draw but that’s never a disadvantage up the straight here. CONFLUENCE (6) was a dominant last start winner up on the speed, back in trip and up the straight he may be a little further back in the run, just tucked in behind the leaders. I’M TELLING YA (2) is consistent but doesn’t win out of turn, he hit the line hard here last time and handles the straight well. The top pick has so much upside, load up.
Race 4: Handicap 1400m
TSHAHITSI (2) was good here up the straight fresh then led all the way at Caulfield over the 7 furlongs for a dominant win last time. I actually like the fact that he will probably have to sit outside the leader today, he should be able to control the race while Jungle Edge rolls along in front.
JUNGLE EDGE (1) is the class runner and looks the leader, you know what you will get with him. He has been up for an eternity though and wants the sting right out of the ground. KEMONO (4) has the potential but really failed to live up to it over the last two preps, he has been gelded in the time off and it wouldn’t surprise to see him come back a real good horse. VINLAND (6) maps well, he was a Listed winner in Qld two back and has trialed well back in SA. Tough race, not a lot of confidence.
Race 5: BM78 Handicap 2000m
TWILIGHT RUN (9) looks to have plenty of upside as a middle-distance type, he was brilliant winning over the mile here two starts back when charging home and was string through the line. He then went to the Valley last week and was well backed, ran on ok but never got into the race when the tempo was against. Back on the big track with the big field I expect that won’t be the case here.
DABIYR (12) is an interesting runner, the import has had just 2 runs in Australia, the first was ok but clearly looking for longer and then went to Sandown to win. He is a little one-paced but will keep grinding away. CHAROSSA (5) is flying at the moment, he has two in a row but has the horrible draw here. ROYAL ORDER (4) is also drawn out, he is also a winner here at the track previously and should be running on hard late.
Race 6: BM90 Handicap 1000m
Anyone that follows these tips knows that I am a fan of the enigmatic last start winner PREZADO (1). He stalked the leader and ran on too well here last start, I constantly need to remind myself that he almost beat Nature Strip at his top here up the straight one day.
ASSERTIVE APPROACH (10) is undefeated after three starts, he has a stack of speed and was a Listed winner last time in SA, he has handled all conditions but happy to risk him at the short quote having his first go up the straight. THE INEVITABLE (2) is a star from Tasmania, he may still need the run and a little further but he has so much talent. He was backed at double figure odds to win the Australian Guineas before going to the paddock and a good fresh record. He will be running on hard. WAGNER (7) has been up a long time but is very consistent, he will also be giving them a start but will keep coming.
Race 7: Mares BM84 Handicap 1400m
MY PENDANT (7) won three in a row last campaign, the last of those was here at the track and distance. He was heavily backed in the Vanity after that but pulled up lame, resumed up the straight here last time but her condition may have just given way late.
SPECIAL DIVA (3) has a poor record here at the track but maps beautifully. She has been up for a while and can be a little enigmatic, her best is good enough though. SHOKORA (1) showed more tactical speed last time and had the perfect ride, she didn’t go around a horse and was strong through the line. This is easier but she jumps sharply on the weights and doesn’t map as well. VOILA (9) is also deep into her prep, she is racing well and will run on hard.
Race 8: Aurie’s Star Handicap 1200m
The first Group race of the season for Vic and it looks a very open one on paper. SESAR (4) was poor on paper last time, I am prepared to forgive him there and he is clearly better than that. His win in Sydney fresh was brilliant, he has a great turn-of-foot and looks suited to the straight racing style. Drawn wide looks perfect, watch for him stalking them before using his acceleration to put them away.
MILWAUKEE (7) absolutely loves it here at the track winning four times, his last four runs have been up the straight for 2 wins and 2 seconds. I expect him to settle closer and on the speed here. REYKJAVIK (8) won the Winter championship final here two back, he was held-up at a vital stage before attacking the line for a comfortable win. YOU MAKE ME SMILE (13) looks the leader, hard to get it done all the way up the straight six though.
Race 9: BM84 Handicap 1720m
DR DRILL (1) is so consistent, he was beaten four starts back here with the winner subsequently been found to have a positive swab, two of three since then he has saluted when up on the speed. He has the wide draw and the spot outside the leader looks his, it’s a tough run around that long sweeping bend when facing the breeze, but he has shown that he can do it tough and still be in the finish.
MISTER SHUHOOD (5) has had three runs in Oz, he will take a lot from the first-up run at Caulfield where he was a little one-paced but kept working to the line. LAURE ME IN (8) is very talented, also a back-marker it will take a Luke Currie pearler from the inside gate. He will get a cheap run but may need to be ridden for luck. BALLET MASTER (11) will find this harder than his last start win, he was strong through the line even after over-racing badly. If he settles better in the run, look for him late again.