Flemington Racing Tips – Sat July 6
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Soft 6: Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 3 – BUFFALO RIVER
Race 1: Leilani Series Final Mares Handicap 1400m
It’s been a while between wins for ORGANZA (1), but this really looks her race. She has placed at her last three, two of them Black Type races and she has the versatility to work with from the wide draw. It’s a tough ask to sit wide here at the 1400m, Oliver goes on, he rarely doesn’t make the right decisions.
PRIA ECLIPSE (3) is so consistent but her record at the track is a little worrying, she is well drawn and will be up on the speed. EL QUESTRO (4) has won two in a row on the heavy tracks since resuming, she will get a soft run and attack the line hard. She will need to be in front of the top pick though in the run. POP QUEEN (2) won here at the track last time at her first go here, the margin was huge and she is suited by the bi open spaces here.
Race 2: Country Cup Final 2000m
A small field but it wouldn’t surprise to see any of the runners salute, barring the likely million to one chance Ormito. MASCULINO (3) is a last start winner at Caulfield, he looks the leader and often these small fields can result in a walk and sprint up the straight.
PACODALI (1) loomed up to win last time and would have traded very short in the run but just didn’t appear to run out the trip. Back in distance, he has a good turn-of-foot but just has to be saved for one run. They may elect to sit outside the lead? SECOND BULLET (2) loves racing here, Oliver goes on and he was ok last time against a few of these. IMPI (8) is the interesting runner, he won by 6L in WA before heading east, then led all the way at Echuca and gapped them again. This is harder, bigger track and new jockey, happy to take her on.
Race 3: Silver Bowl Series Final 1600m
BUFFALO RIVER (1) will probably be the shortest priced favourite of the day, he has won both runs this campaign and is yet to miss a place in his six-start career. He over-raced on the speed last time at Sandown but was still way too good late, he needs to settle better than what he has at his last couple, but if he does, he will brain these.
HEAVENLY EMPEROR (5) ran on hard to win here at his first look at the track last time, he will be giving them a start but if the top pick pulls his head-off and doesn’t run out the mile, he will be finishing hard. MR EXCLUSIVE (3) will be on the speed as will ASGARD MASSIF (2) he had his chance last time when sitting inside the favourite but was no match late. He is the best of the day.
Race 4: Banjo Patterson Final Handicap 2600m
I was hard against CHOUXTING THE MOB (1) last time here a fortnight ago, but I was well and truly proved wrong. HE sat back and came with a brilliant finishing burst to get up n the line. It may have been more advantageous to be on the speed making his win even better, that was his fourth straight win and fifth of his last six runs.
MAWAANY MACHINE (2) notched up his first Australian win last start with a real grinding win. He led and was challenged early in the straight but responded to the rider, he will keep giving in the straight. FUTURE SCORE (8) will get back, I would have preferred a bigger field where the speed would be guaranteed, he will run on but needs everything to go right. LAST WEEK (4) will be up on the speed but had his chance last time, he has a good SP profile and may start big overs here.
Race 5: Taj Rossi Final 2YO Handicap 1600m
RUBISAKI (3) could not have been more impressive last time here having her first look at the track, the way she charged to the line, stepping up to the mile looks to be ideal. Both of her wins have been on soft tracks, this will no doubt be her last run before being sent to the paddock.
PANCHO (2) was ok behind her last time but needs to be saved for one run, any more rain around wouldn’t hurt his chances as he was a heavy track winner two back. CASSIUS (1) is a last start winner at Bendigo after a great ride, this is harder but he maps to get a very soft run off the inside draw. MOONLIGHT MAID (8) was brilliant winning on debut, she had to sit wide and well back before attacking the line hard. This is harder but if the speed is on, look for her late.
Race 6: Mahogany Challenge Final 3YO Handicap 2500m
DOGMATIC (1) won his first two runs this campaign, last time at Caulfield he ran on hard but was simply giving away an impossible start and although beaten 3.5 lengths into second, he was still really good. He can settle closer in the run and I expect him to here from the good draw.
NOT A SINGLE CENT (2) travelled north for his last couple, he had no luck in Sydney last time after being held-up at a vital stage. Foret he went around there. He will get back but appears to handle the wet ok. AMERICAN IN PARIS (5) has been up for a long time but is still racing well, he was an eye-catcher late last time after being held-up in a form line we can line up. WEALTHY WOLF (9) and Dunman come through the same race and expect that the former can turn the tables on the winner there and beat him home. Another back-marker, not a lot of confidence here.
Race 7: VIC Sprint Series Final Handicap 1200m
HALVORSEN (9) lost a plate last time and was strong through the line, he looks well drawn out wide in what is the first straight race of the day. He should be out in the best part of the track and the speed looks genuine, this looks easier than last time and he never runs a bad race.
HOLY BLADE (4) ran on well last time here back closer to the inside which may have not been the better going, MIcky Dee goes on and he will be charging late with the top pick. INVINCIBLE AL (6) is a veteran up the straight, that cannot be underestimated. He is also drawn wider which should be advantageous, he hit the line well last time when only beaten a length and this looks no harder. MILWAUKEE (3) beat them both last time, he carries the same weight with the apprentice off and Oliver on, that has to be a positive. It looks a very open race, play wide in the Quaddie.
Race 8: Winter Championship Final Handicap 1600m
This race last year proved to be the greatest form reference for the mid-back end of 2018, it could be the same again with many chances that will continue to win through the latter winter months. Saying that, I am almost declaring WAGING WAR (7). He was really good winning in SA two back, went to Sandown three weeks ago, sat up outside the speed before hitting the front at the clock tower. He stuck on well and only narrowly missed, it certainly was more of an advantage to be running on so her effort was great. Hopefully Willow gets some cover, the horse is flying.
Most of them. HELLOVA STREET (2) is a Tassy marvel, his regular jock goes back on and he races well here. He was ok along the inner last time but prefer him being up outside them, hopefully the spot outside the leader is his today. MR MARATHON MAN (1) looked to hit a flat spot last time before really hitting the line hard to get up on the line. That was against the top pick, he is versatile and Oliver sticks with the ride. MAMZELLE TESS (8) looks an improver after having no luck last time, sitting wide on the speed without cover and was forced to chase too hard.
Race 9: Rivette Series Final 3YO Fillies Handicap 1600m
SURE KNEE (1) could not have been more impressive last time here against a few of these, she was beautifully ridden on the rails before easing wider and exploded in the straight for a soft win. She wasn’t far away in the SA Oaks earlier in the prep, she should start a deserved solid favourite.
BENITOITE (2) has won three of four runs and is on the way up, she handles the wet tracks well but she will be giving the top pick a start and Oliver to Walker looks a negative. He can be a hero sometimes, it will need one of those rides but she clearly has plenty of upside. FABRIC (3) bolted in over 7 furlongs here two starts back, she was a little one pace but kept coming last time on the slow track. She probably needs a drying track. SHAMAL LASS (8) was well beaten by her here two back but she was off the track throughout. She was heavily backed at Geelong and bolted in, eased down late the margin was not a true indication.