Flemington Racing Tips – Sat May 25
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 8 – SURPRISE BABY
Race 1: Super VOBIS 2YO Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1200m
Tough race to start with so many unknowns. SEBRAKATE (1) looks the best of the raced runners, he won his first two and the initial prep culminated in a Magic Millions start where he was outclassed. He resumes today.
Watch for any serious support for those on debut, particularly ARCHERY BUTTS (2) from the Godolphion yard, MIAMI BOUND (9) with Oliver steering and NIGHT PASSAGE (10) who has won a trial recently.
Race 2: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1600m
FIDELIA (1) is going for four wins in a row this prep, she is on the week’s back-up where she was dominant here at the track last week. The margin was only small but they gapped the third horse, her turn of foot when asked is outstanding and the big track really suits her. She will be giving them a start and does meet a similar field, look for her flashing late.
ADVERSARY (4) has also won three races this prep, he will find this tougher but he has shown versatility and is drawn beautifully. His last two wins have been completely opposite, I suggest he will go forward early as they will want the tactical advantage over the favourite. TITAN BLINDERS (10) looks the leader, if they mess around worrying about the fave back in the field he may get some cheap sectionals. TOWER ROAD (9) won well at the Bool, this is harder but he is going for three in a row.
Race 3: BM78 Handicap 1100m
Huge field going up the straight. HIGHLAND BEAT (2) will find this easier than three weeks ago here when he was narrowly beaten. He gets a good claim, will be up on the speed and should be out of trouble. A little concerning that he is drawn in close however.
Most of them. PARSIFAL (4) has won all three runs this campaign. He was heavily backed when dominating at the Bool, then went home and bolted in at Morphetville. This is his first go up the straight and looks to be drawn in the wrong part of the track, apart from those two factors he would be the clear top pick. CELTIC BLAST (6) is drawn out wide which should be beneficial, he is very speedy and a winner, he should give them something to chase out wide. SATORI (7) gets the blinkers on again following a narrow loss at the Bool, that race has provved a good form reference with a subsequent winner coming from it.
Race 4: Handicap 1600m
ODEON (1) has been freshened up with a 5-week break and a trial win since, interestingly at start 31 he gets the blinkers applied for the first time. He has good tactical speed and Williams will have all the options early, it would be no shock to see him attempt to lead all the way. He had been racing well and this looks no harder.
It does look an open race. GUIZOT (3) was a bad result for followers last time after a big win at the Bool, he absolutely bolted in, he has been up forever it seems but is flying. ANOTHER DOLLAR (8) ran on hard here at her first look at the track fresh last time, she has a good record second-up but this is certainly harder. SPUNLAGO (10) has not missed a place at three runs at the track, he wasn’t beaten far behind Mantastic last time and that has proven a good form line.
Race 5: 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1400m
NEIGHBOURHOOD (13) had jumped-out well prior to her brilliant maiden win, she then came here in a similar race and was very heavily backed. She ran to the front before getting swamped in the last few strides, the good draw in the big field should see her not being very wide like the majority of the field will be around the sweeping bend. She is well above this level.
FABRIC (10) had no luck last time here in that same race, she was held-up for the majority of the straight and made ground late but wasn’t fully tested. If she gets the right cart into it and gets to the outside, she will be hard to hold off late. VANUATU (6) has the inside gate, he will get a soft run but may need some luck as she will get back in the run. The gaps usually appear though up this long straight.
VOILA (8) gets the ear muffs for the first time, he is consistent but lacks the brilliance of a couple of these. he will keep working to the line solidly in the straight
Race 6: BM84 Handicap 1800m
STEALTHY LUCAS (17) put three in a row together last prep, he was poor resuming but showed a lot of improvement at Bendigo where he ran on hard at the back-end. He jumps considerably in trip from 1300m-1800m here, but really looks suited by the extra distance. He will be mid-field in the run and charging home like he was doing last prep, he was really good at his only other start here at the track.
Another big field with plenty of chances. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (18) is having his first run at the track, a month ago he was last seen running on well from a mile backbehind the talented Mr Quickie at Caulfield.
GOLD MAG (10) was good here last start, but har dto see him finding a spot where he doesn’t have to work too hard from the horrible draw. DR DRILL (9) will start near the top of the market, he ran on well here in a race where the tempo didn’t really suit those back in the field last time. A few have come through that same race, both his runs in Oz have been good and more improvement wouldn’t surprise.
Race 7: The Straight Six Handicap 1200m
MANOLO BLAHNIQ (2) has a poor overall record at the track but he was a winner last time here. HE had no luck at Caulfield two back and did well to get so close then charged home there 5 weeks ago to narrowly miss in a race where it was favoured to be on the speed. He will be giving them a start but the tempo will be a cracker, look for him late.
HAUNTED (5) is a classy sprinter that goes well here and is drawn ideally in the middle of the big field. He bolted in resuming then went to SA for a feature and didn’t have much luck before tiring late. He should be fully fit for this with Willow going on. ORDER OF COMMAND (4) knows the straight six well, he was dominant at Caulfield n the soft track last time. He may need a brilliant ride if the inside is not the place to be, look for him late. MILWAUKEE (6) was heavily backed to win here last start and did just that, this is harder but he loves it here.
Race 8: The Andrew Ramsden WFA 2800m
SURPRISE BABY (12) has the horror draw but looks well in at the WFA conditions in comparison to his narrow defeat last start. He will get back anyway, last time he was heavily bumped and affected by a fall at the top of the lane before balancing up and running on hard to narrowly miss. He won the Adelaide Cup prior so the trip is no issue.
It looks a two horse race and although it is a huge field, it is hard to see him or STEEL PRINCE (2) not winning. Surprise Baby meets him a lot better at the WFA scale and that’s why I think he can turn the tables, Steel Prince will have the head-start and be one of the first into the straight, just a matter of if he can hold the stronger horse out late. EASTENDER (1) is a winner, The Tasmanian raider had every chance last time at Caulfield but was a little one-paced. ALFARRIS (3) is an import that notched up his first Oz win at start four last time. He lifted off the canvas and was clearly the better stayer that day, the extra trip won’t hurt him.
Race 9: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1100m
NOT ENOUGH EFFORT (5) remains undefeated after three career starts, this is obviously his toughest test and may be drawn in the wrong part of the track. He has good tactical speed, he was left a little flat-footed when they picked up last time but he responded well and was strong through the line. Stepping up to the 1100m looks ideal and the races usually have a lot more tempo here up the straight which should suit.
AKKADIAN (4) can let down with a powerful turn-of-foot when asked, he just needs to be saved for one late run. POISED TO STRIKE (3) is a last start winner here over the 6 furlongs, back in trip should be ok and he is drawn well in the middle of the line. He may get further back and will need a little luck but the pack usually fans at about the 300m mark in these races, and the gaps appear. MUMBLES (9) comes through that same race and was held-up at a vital stage before charging late to narrowly miss.