February 28, 2020
Tips

Flemington (Sat)

Moonee Valley

Flemington Racing Tips – Wed Feb 15th

We will be at Flemington this Saturday.

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

Best Bet: Race 8 – KATALIN

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Race 1: BM90 Handicap 1600m

OVER EXPOSURE (3) was off the scene for 79 weeks before resuming this prep, he was a good thing beaten three starts back here at the track when held-up for a lot of the straight. He was only fair when going north for the Magic Millions Cup, this looks easier.

Dangers:

TITAN BLINDERS (9) has been very consistent this prep, a win and three placings from 4 starts. He led for a long way at Caulfield in an easier race last time, well down in the weights here in a harder race, that looks his role again and will be hard to catch. KAZIO (2) wasn’t beaten far in a similar race last time at Caulfield, he had a good run in transit and did hit the lead at the furlong before getting run down late. MOUNT TABORA (8) has been good at three runs this trip, he will be giving them a start and finishing hard. This is no harder than last start.

Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1600m

This looks the toughest race on the card. PAINT THE TOWN TWO (1) is going for three wins on the bounce, they have both been comfortable wins coming from mid-field and the big track should suit her. She may need a little luck getting away from the fence when the runs come.

Dangers:

All of them? RED HEELER (3) has had a month between runs and comes back in trip to the mile. She chased hard before running on hard and went clear late here last time. She races well here at the track. FABRIC (2) had no luck when resuming then was an easing favourite second-up, well beaten but was good enough through the line. Willow sticks with the ride and maps beautifully. THOUSAND WISHES (4) has been very consistent, hit the line hard and was a tad unlucky behind the top pick last time. Drawn out though, I don’t expect John Allen will be very positive early.

Race 3: Talindert Stakes 2YO Set Weights and Penalties 1100m

MR CASHMAN (3) was a brilliant winner on debut at the Valley, he was held-up from the 400 to the top of the straight, balanced up and got around them and ran on hard to win easily in the end. First go up the straight like a lot of these, but drawn wide certain to be no disadvantage.

Dangers:

AWARD WINNER (14) won on debut, she then went to a Blue Diamond Preview three weeks ago for the girls and worked home strong out wide. RIVER NIGHT (15) was a real eye-catcher at her debut behind the Blue Diamond favourite Hanseatic, she was only beaten just under 2 lengths and was running on hard after a poor getaway. Watch for any money for the three on debut, in particular PIONEER RIVER (13).

Race 4: BM84 Handicap 2000m

EUREKA STREET (2) has been up for a while but is racing so well. He was a winner at the Valley two starts back then went to Caulfield and hit the line well after coming wide in a race where it was more suitable to be up on the speed. He did pull up lame also.

Dangers:

It looks a very even race on paper. BIG SUR (10) is a winner at his only start at the track, he had almost two years away from racing and should be nearing peak fitness again here fourth-up. He hit the line well at Caulfield without looking the winner in a race where it was more beneficial to be up on the speed. GOOD IDEA (11) doesn’t win out of turn, he will also get back, gets a stack of gear changes and can run a race if he gets the right horse to cart him into the straight. SALSAMOR (3) gets out in trip and should settle closer form the inside draw, maybe behind the leader?

Race 5: CS Hayes Stakes 3YO Colts and Geldings Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

ALLIGATOR BLOOD (3) only has one hurdle here and that is the inside gate. He is a superstar, his only defeat was in the Caulfield Guineas by the brilliant Super Seth by the smallest possible margin. Everything went wrong on Magic Millions day and he was still way too classy for them, just a matter of where Ryan Maloney gets him in the run. The gaps usually open up here at HQ.

Dangers:

DALASAN (4) loves it here at Flemington, he looks suited getting out to the 1400m after storming home over the last furlong last time at Caulfield. He looks much better suited here, the question still remains would he be going better with R Clark still riding? CATALYST (1) is a star from across the ditch in NZ, his only loss was on debut and is gunning for 7 straight wins. He bolted in at G3 level over there when resuming as a very short priced favourite, this is his biggest test, is he the real deal? SPEND (6) is facing a huge step up in class but may run a cheeky race up in the speed at huge odds.  Don’t leave him out of the minor places on your exotic tickets.

Race 6: BM90 Handicap 1200m

TANIKO (6) is very consistent, she ran over the top of them here at Randwick two starts back, she was again here last time and didn’t have much luck before running into third, but beaten a long way. Five weeks between runs and back in class, looks hard to beat.

Dangers:

HANGER (5) is an interesting runner now with the Mitch Beer stable up on the border, he comes over from NZ where he had a fair record and has trialed well. Watch the betting for any confidence. JUST HIFALUTIN (2) is a winner, he was beautifully ridden to score at Sale last start and goes well up the straight here. PREZADO (3) is a straight track specialist, he once ran Nature Strip to three-quarters of a length here one day.

Race 7: Black Caviar Lightning WFA 1000m

NATURE STRIP (2) is fast, very fast and it seems that the Waller camp have finally realised this and are going to let him race how he races best, handlebars down!  He was a dual G1 winner last prep in the Spring, is a perfect 4/4 here at the track and has trialed brilliantly. Will be winning this.

Dangers:

Going to throw in GYTRASH (4) for second, as good of a thing that Nature Strip looks to win, this guy looks the moral to fill the Exacta. He has a perfect record here at Flemington, super first-up stats and was brilliant at the jump-outs recently. Zahra should have the cold sit on the top pick early. LOVING GABY (7) had a breakthrough Spring winning at WFA in the Manikato then was ok behind Nature Strip last time. She goes well first-up and must be respected. REDZEL (1) may be past it and seems to be a better horse in the Spring these days? But wow what a record and flies fresh.

Race 8: The Vanity 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1400m

KATALIN (9) is an interesting runner that could be real smart, she came through a hot form race on debut and ran them down at Warwick Farm, went to Newcastle at start two and was very heavily supported deep in the red, ran on hard from mid-field to hit the front at the furlong and burst away. This is harder, Willow goes on but she could be the best of the day.

Dangers:

LUNAR LIGHT (7) has won 3 of 4 in SA and looks to be above average, this is harder but the Clarken stable must be respected when they bring one here. PRETTY BRAZEN (1) won the Sandown Guineas last start after a rails-hugging ride, she ran on hard out wide last time here at the track and hit the line well. Not sure where she gets to in the run though? FASCINO (2) was a G2 winner at the mile before going to the paddock, she has won fresh and will be hitting the line hard.

Race 9: Handicap 1400m

EF TROOP (8) won a Listed race in Sa in December, was good in defeat after over-racing in the Christmas Stakes at Listed level again and then was narrowly beaten over the Magic Millions carnival last time. Drawn well in the big field, he should be mapping perfectly with the sit on the leaders.

Dangers:

STAR MISSILE (12) is resuming and has a good record fresh, he will be giving them a start and will need luck getting off the inside but should have plenty to offer late. ADMIRAL’S JOKER (2) found the line well last week, on the 7-day back-up and was given a big spruik by the trainer during the week. ROX THE CASTLE (3) has a good record at the track, he looks the leader and if they give him a couple of cheap sectionals through the middle, they will struggle to run him down.

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