Cup Day Racing Tips – Tue Nov 5
We will be at Flemington this Tuesday.
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 3m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 8 – JUNIPAL
Race 1: Ottawa Stakes Fillies Set Weights 1000m
Tough race for the babies with so many unknowns. 13 of the 16 are coming to the races for the first time. If you need to have an interest,
DIVINE CAPRICE (4) and CUT IT OUT (3) have both performed well up the straight here previously. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular MUNTASEERA (8) from the Maher/Eustace yard and THALA (13) drawn out wide.
Race 2: 4&5YO BM90 Handicap 1400m
WILLIAM THOMAS (1) needs everything to go right in his races, he will get back and run on hard. He was brilliant resuming at Caulfield, was strong through the line when placing in the Apache Cat at Cranbourne then ran on strongly at the Valley last time. He looks suited getting on the bigger track here.
PHAISTOS (7) resumes off a very consistent prep last time, he has won both of his previous fresh runs. HE was well backed over a mile here last time at the track, I think he will be hard on the back of the top pick when the runs come. EAST INDIAMAN (5) rarely runs a bad race and will be making his own luck, a lot will depend on if he can be first across to the fence. BAD WOLF (4) is a two-time winner at the track, he looked a little plain when resuming after being forced to chase hard.
Race 3: Mares Handicap 1700m
ROMANI GIRL (6) has the wide draw to overcome but she is likely to get back anyway. She has been racing super in Sydney winning two of three this time in and narrowly beaten in the other. A little concerning that this is her fourth different jockey this campaign, look for her late.
SURE KNEE (7) is also drawn poorly and comes down from recent racing in Sydney. I expect that McEvoy will be more positive on the ride early. SEEWHATSHEBRINGS (10) won two in a row against the girls to start this campaign, then was brave in defeat in a harder race at the Valley last time. ONE MORE TRY (2) will be ridden for luck from the inside draw and will get an economical run in transit.
Race 4: BM96 Handicap 2800m
SHARED AMBIITON (3) will start the shortest priced favourite of the day, he has only had to starts in Australia and been very dominant in both. Drawn well, Nash sticks with the ride, he loos to have too much class.
EXEMPLAR (5) hasn’t had a lot of luck at his last couple and is still looking for that first win in Australia. GAYATRI (7) is better than what she showed last time, go on her previous win where she was impressive running on from the back. FRANKED (9) has won back-to-back races in SA, the latest by a big margin. This is harder.
Race 5: Super VOBIS 3YO Plate Set Weights and Penalties 1000m
ATHIRI (14) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but has been racing against the best if her age group throughout her career. She placed here up the straight at Listed level two starts back, was a little flat last time at Caulfield but this looks easier.
SIZZLEFLY (16) is drawn well, she will be giving them a start but can finish hard and looks suited to the straight.
DIRTY WORK (8) is drawn wider, has been close up at recent starts in Sydney behind some of the best 3YO’s in the state, ASATEER (6) has not missed a place in his five career starts, both his wins have been on the synthetic tracks but if he can improve a little, he will be up on the pace for a long way.
Race 6: Mares Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
JAMAICAN RAIN (1) was brave in defeat at Caulfield last start in a harder race than this. She was wide without cover and stuck on well, she is well travelled and will find this easier. She looks well in this grade against the girls at the set weights and penalties.
BELLA MARTINI (3) was big odds coming through the same race last time but was very plain, she is a 1200m Group One placegetter and gets a gun run from the draw. SWEET SCANDAL (4) was good behind Tofane last start, that horse came out and won on Saturday. She has some tactical speed, I expect Walker to have her in the first couple of pairs early. LA TIGERESA (8) comes into calculations if the rain comes, she loves the sting out of the ground as it was when winning last start at Moe.
Race 7: Melbourne Cup Handicap 3200m
Selections – 11-19-13-20
1 – CROSS COUNTER: 2018 Melbourne Cup returns to try and go back-to-back, since leaving Oz last year he won in Dubai and raced well in the UK. He has showed his liking for the track, the conditions should be similar to last year.
2 – MER DE GLACE: The Japanese 5YO has won 6 in a row, including a dominant win in the Caulfield Cup. He showed a great turn-of-foot at the back-end, something that is needed to win the big one.
3 – MASTER OF REALITY: We have never seen him here in Oz, he placed in the Ascot Gold Cup over the English summer. Frankie Dettori rides from the inside gate, not somewhere I want to be. Running the trip will not be a problem.
4 – MIRAGE DANCER: He was having his first run for the Busuttin/Young stable in Australia when running on well in the Caulfield Cup. He is very consistent but a little concerning that he has never been past the mile and a half.
5 – SOUTHERN FRANCE: A new addition to the Maher/Eustace yard, he won at Group Three level two starts back in Ireland before placing in the Irish St Leger last time. Mark Zahra to ride, this team certainly know how to get one up for a big race, but is it too soon?
6 – HUNTING HORN: Predominantly used as a pacemaker over the last year, he had his first run here in Oz when heavily backed to win the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He sat off the speed and had a perfect run, made a long run and was too strong. Happy to take him on.
7 – LATROBE: Unseen in Australia, he was a Group Three winner two back then well beaten in the Irish St Leger last time, a race a couple of these came through. Horribly drawn out in 22, happy to say he will be a big drifter in the betting and start 50/1?
8 – MUSTAJEER: He is now with the Kris Lees yard, he was having his first Australian start since winning the Ebor in England last time in the Caulfield Cup, he ran on hard from a mile back and ran through the line as good as any. Chance.
9 – ROSTROPOVICH: He had a torrid run but stuck on well for fifth in last years Cup, he went to Hong Kong and was outclassed before coming back to Oz. He hasn’t done much in the lead-up, will be going forward again but won’t be there at the end.
10 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT: The 7YO is having his first Australian start, two back he won at Group Two level before being well beaten in the Irish St leger last time. Prefer others, he looks one of the unseen visitors that I will be leaving out.
11 – FINCHE: Fourth in last years Cup, he stayed in Australia with the Waller yard and has really been racing well. Unlike many of these, he has had a long prep leading into this with four runs, good in the Turnbull two back and was brave in defeat in the Caulfield Cup. Chance.
12 – PRINCE OF ARRAN: He won the Lexus on Derby Day last year to get into the Cup and ran a cracking race for third, he has since spent time in Dubai and England before returning. HE made his way into this via the Geelong Cup, sat up on the speed and made it a true staying test. A must include in all exotics.
13 – RAYMOND TUSK: A 5YO Richard Hannon trained gelding that was good in the Ebor, typically a good form reference, before making his way out here. A little concerning that he was beaten out of sight when having his only start on a soft track, don’t discard.
14 – DOWNDRAFT: He was good in the Valley Gold Cup at his Oz debut up on the speed, then catapulted his way into calculations with a crushing win on Saturday. He was absolutely bolting into the straight and never looked like losing after kicking clear with 300m to go. Tough draw, probably goes forward.
15 – MAGIC WAND: It’s been a while since she has won but her first Australian run was a belter. Setting a solid speed at WFA in the Cox Plate, he was given a cold by the winner around the turn but stuck on well. He looks better suited back at Handicap conditions, drawn the outside he will go forward but will probably be attacked throughout.
16 – NEUFBOSC: Poorly drawn, he has done very little since arriving in Oz and will be 500/1. No.
17 – SOUND: German import that came here for last year’s Cup and was beaten the length of the straight, hasn’t shown enough of late to suggest the same won’t happen here.
18 – SURPRISE BABY: The Adelaide Cup winner earlier in the year, he clearly won’t have a problem running the trip. He showed he is right on track with a win in the Bart Cummings a month ago where he ran on hard from the back. He is the local hope, would be great to see trainer Paul Preusker rewarded.
19 – CONSTANTINOPLE: He arguably should have nearly won the Caulfield cup at his first Australian start, he was mid-field in the run before copping a check and shuffled out the back down the side. He recovered, was slightly held-up before the turn before running on hard. Has to be included.
20 – IL PARADISO: Another of the Aiden Obrien team, he was well beaten last time at Group One level in the UK but had been consistent in his short career. These OS 4YO’s have a good record of late, he did win a two-mile handicap by 12 lengths 3 starts back!
21 – STEEL PRINCE: He has been in the race since winning the Andrew Ramsden back in the Winter, he has been ok this prep but did miss a start when scratched at the barrier recently. Not sure how that affected its prep, happy to be against it though.
22 – THE CHOSEN ONE: He gets the blinkers on for the first time but would need to improve. Beaten a combined 12 lengths at his last two, he will be triple figure odds. No.
23 – VOW AND DECLARE: He was a winner over 3000m in the Queensland Winter, his two runs back have been very good. Not suited at the set weights in the Turnbull he ran a good race fresh, then was left a little flat-footed when the runs came in the Caulfield Cup but was noticeably strong through the line. He will get the right tempo, this won’t be a sit-sprint affair.
24 – YOUNGSTAR: She has been racing poorly this prep before showing improvement in Sydney last start. She didn’t have much luck, she has always showed potential but needs to start showing it. Others preferred.
Selections – 11-19-13-20
Race 8: Melbourne Cup Day Plate 1800m
JUNIPAL (17) has been for a long time but has raced so consistently this campaign, barring his run in the Epsom where he was wide without cover and well beaten. He ran on hard last start beaten by Cascadian who has run a ripper on Saturday. He draws well to get a soft run, has placed both runs here at the track and should be storming home late.
YULONG PRINCE (2) was squeezed up when making a run at Caulfield last time, he stuck on ok but really lost his momentum at a vital stage. PLEIN CIEL (6) has had two runs back this prep, he has run on well at both and looks suited coming back to the 1800m. SUPER TITUS (9) was well beaten in the Herbert Power last start, he is a little one paced so will need a genuine tempo throughout.
Race 9: MSS Security Sprint Handicap 1200m
HAUNTED (3) has a cracking overall record, has good tactical speed, well drawn and makes his own luck. He is a winner here at the track, in a big field and open race, he looks a great each-way bet to nothing. You should be able to get even money the place about him come race time.
MILWAUKEE (4) loves it here at the track, he is a 4-time winner up the straight. He is fresh today and has won 2/5 when resuming, he is drawn in close to the rail also. PARSIFAL (6) is a SA visitor that was brilliant winning at the Valley last time, he rarely runs a bad race and will run on hard. MORE THAN EXCEED (13) has good speed, he has won two on the trot in SA and will give them something to catch.
Race 10: HKJC Stakes 3YO Fillies Set Weights and Penalties 1400m
A capacity field with plenty of chances, XILONG (5) goes on top of her brilliant win by 5 lengths in SA last start. She will have to jump away with them off the inside, she likes to lead and if she does land on the bunny and the inside isn’t off, she will be too quick.
PRETTY BRAZEN (4) has won two in a row, the first of those by more than 4 lengths. She was favourite at Caulfield last time and again finished too well from the back to win comfortably. AKARI (2) took the win out of maiden grade well at her first attempt winning a Listed race, the draw hurts though. She looks to be on the up, JMAc on and it will need to be a pearler from the outside gate. EXCUSED (8) over-raced here last time in a harder race, she will benefit from what was her first go around here. WIllow sticks with the ride.