Moonee Valley (Fri)

Moonee Valley Racing Tips

Track: Good 4. Rail: True

Best Bet: Race 4 - IBEETOBEE

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Race 1: 2YO Fillies Plate 1000m

Eight un-raced fillies, half of which have not been to the official trials. Good luck. Watch for the betting obviously, most notably with ORIENTAL LILY (8), MATABBA (6), LADY NATURALISTE (5) and LADY LUPINO (4). Best to concentrate on the other 7 races on the card.

Race 2: 3YO BM64 Handicap 1500m

IGNITER (5) showed improvement last start, his previous two since winning his maiden earlier in the campaign had only been fair. He rolled to the front last time and kicked clear, looked the winner at the top of the straight but was run down late, fighting all the way to the line. If Meech can find the top again, he looks better suited on this track.

Dangers:

TALL LADY (6) is a last start maiden winner at Pakenham, she showed a lot more tactical speed that day and gets out to this trip for the first time, but she may have to sit outside the speed here. MONEY BACK (3) is also a last start maiden winner, he is likely to get back and if those two go at each other, he will be the one swooping home late over the top. ARDEE (4) was poor resuming, he showed improvement last time when a lot closer to the speed.

Race 3: Maiden Plate 1200m

GOLDIFOX (11) is resuming, she placed at 4 of her 5 first runs and surely won’t be a maiden long into this campaign. Although well beaten at her only start at the track, she was running on very hard that day behind an impressive winner. Look for her late.

Dangers:

SORA (12) has only been to the races once, she may have just run out of condition late after looming up to win. She will be better for that run no doubt. ANGEL LASS (10) has placed at both of her starts, not sure where she will get to from the draw though and a little tricky being her first look at the track. PLENTY (6) looks to have come back a different horse this prep, he showed very little at his first two preps but was an encouraging run resuming.

Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM64 Handicap 1600m

As always, these low-grade races for the girls looks a tough race on paper but I am quite confident I have found the winner. IBEETOBEE (5) may have more upside as a lightly raced 4YO having her 4th start, she placed at her first couple then ran on hard to score her maiden win at the Valley last time. She gets the addition of the blinkers today so expect her to settle closer.

Dangers:

INDRABEEL (11) doesn’t have a lot of brilliance but will keep grinding away. OUTDOOR MOTORS (4) rarely runs a bad race, her last start win was dominant at 58 level after over-racing, this is harder. ADINA ROSE (7) has placed at her last couple, she will go forward from the inside draw and attempt to lead all the way.

Race 5: BM64 Handicap 955m

REWARD WITH RETURN (1) has been super at his last couple here, he has a better gate tonight so expect him to settle closer than he has at his last couple of runs when he ran on hard. Obviously, there is a bit of a concern is the 61.5kgs he will have to carry after the claim, but he keeps delivering and has shown that he can carry weight. Look for him late.

Dangers:

RAY’S DREAM (9) looks to have come back well with a nice trial win, she has good tactical speed and will get an economical run from the inside draw. This is a lot easier than what she faced last time she was at the races. SWIZZLE STICKS (10) led all the way at big odds to win resuming and looks to have come back well. This is harder and doubt she will lead from out there but if she can get outside the speed she will be in the finish. SHIR (6) is resuming off a nice trial win and has been gelded in his time off.

Race 6: BM70 Handicap 1200m

ROX THE CASTLE (11) was left a little flat-footed when they sprinted last time, he was first-up off more than a four month break that day so may have just needed the run. He knuckled down late and hit the line well behind an impressive winner, perfectly drawn to be on the speed for a long way with Williams going on.

Dangers:

BOLEK (10) is very speedy and looks the other candidate to take up a leading role, he looked a little flat at Sandown second-up. He is a winner at his only other third-up run and should be at peak fitness now. HARBOUR GREY (1) stormed home to win at Geelong fresh before a flat run in the Greys race during Cup week. He is well drawn and gets some good weight relief with the claim. BRAHMOS (2) has joined the Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig yard since he was last seen at the races, has trialed ok and is a past winner when racing fresh. Watch the betting with him for any confidence.

Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 1200m

IMMACULATE SECRET (5) could not have been more impressive in her win resuming at Terang. She led and hardly got out of second gear, the margin certainly could have been greater. She will find this harder again but looks a progressive type that will go through the grades this campaign.

Dangers:

SWORN EVIDENCE (6) has been racing tougher opposition at her last couple since winning a similar race to this back in late September. She has been given a 7-week break to sharpen her up, she doesn’t have a lot of brilliance but will keep coming. SAVAJU (3) has improved at her last couple after a slow start to this campaign, she will be giving them a start but if the leaders hack at each other, she will wind-up late and is a winner here at the track previously. VIVI VALENTINA (11) was having her first look at the track here a fortnight ago, she had cover wide before running on well. She has to take on the older horses here but she looks to have come back well.

Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2040m

PALAZZO VECCHIO (1) is a little inconsistent this time in, but if she brings her last start performance here tonight, she is right in the mix. It was a similar race to this, gets an extra kilo claim tonight and is well drawn. The slight query may be the trip, she looked all out at the back-end of the mile last time so she will need to be saved for one run.

Dangers:

PIERROCITY (5) would have been at the top of selections had it not been for the shocking draw, Oliver goes on though so he will probably make the right decisions early. She has versatility so it will probably depend on how she jumps but hopefully they ride her positively from the gate and go forward. WEE GILLY (2) is resuming off a 16-week break, the former Kiwi may need the run but the trip shouldn’t worry her. She will improve off whatever she does here. QUEEN LEONORA (7) was ok at her first look at the track here last week, she looked to have her chance but found the line well again once balanced up in the straight. She will be improved with that experience at the track.

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