Moonee Valley Racing Tips
Track: Good 4. Rail: Out 5m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 6 - NEGASI
Race 1: Maiden Plate 1600m
They look an even bunch to start the card and there is not a lot of confidence as so many of these are lightly raced and can improve plenty from run-to-run. BRUTALLY HONEST (3) was held-up for 100m at a vital stage late at Benalla at his second career start, he balanced up and ran on hard to narrowly miss. He looks suited getting out to the mile.
LACAZETTE (10) settled further back last time when she ventured out of maiden grade, she came wide and hit the line well and looks better suited back against the non-winners. LUNAR FLARE (11) looks as though she still has plenty to learn, she was very green late when narrowly beaten out of a place at Pakenham. She gets the blinkers on for the first time and they looked to be a necessary gear change. TOWER ROAD (7) gets the blinkers on and comes through a hot form race at Pakenham in which 3 horses from that day have won since. He is well drawn and if the money comes late for him, he will go in as the top pick and a must back.
Race 2: BM78 Handicap 1200m
GREYWORM (3) will be one of the shortest priced favourites of the night and deservedly so. He resumed here a fornight ago where he sat second in 70-grade, kicked at the turn and ran away to win by more than 2 lengths. He was very short and deep in the red that night so the confidence was there, he maps well again and will be up on the speed. He should have no problem putting away this field and should go through the grades nicely.
HOLY COMMAND (4) is a winner, he resumes off a 17-week break and has trialed well, albeit under a hold. He has tactical speed and usually likes to be on the pace, but may just be beaten early over this shorter trip, if he gets cover, he will be hard to hold out late. ROX THE CASTLE (5) has won 4/7 overall, he also has speed and may be the one to kick through and hold the favourite out. That looks to be his best chance but he will probably need to get rolling before the straight as I think Greyworm will be too sharp if they turn it into a dash up the straight. VAINSTREAM (7) for het exotics but it is very hard to see something outside those three winning.
Race 3: 3YO BM70 Handicap 1000m
NO TIES (1) is lining up for his sixth start at his first prep, which can often be a red light, but he is racing so well. He had not missed a place at his first four starts, all in SA, then came here to the Valley a fortnight ago for the first-time travelling interstate. He was forced to sit wide without cover mid-field, he kept coming but was swamped late, if he gets cover here, he will be hard to hold out late.
FINE DANE (4) has good tactical speed but also was very hit or miss at the start during his first prep, he is resuming today and he should be able to punch through from the good gate and be on the speed. THINE IS THE POWER (5) was resuming at Caulfield on Australia Day, she settled last before chasing hard and running on well to narrowly miss placing. She will need everything to go right, but if the speed is on, she will rocket home. LE POMME DE PIN (10) has still yet to win the Melbourne way of going, she has speed and surely that second win isn’t far away. Watch for any money at longer odds for her resuming.
Race 4: Fillies and Mares BM78 Handicap 1000m
BLEU ROCHE (3) is resuming, she won her last start up the straight at Flemington at Group Two level. She won at her only other fresh start which was her debut, she maps to be just off the pace here and obviously has the class.
HUMMA HUMMA (4) is also resuming and comes through that same race at her last start. That race was the first time that she had missed a place in 8 career starts, resuming off the wide draw she will probably be giving them a start but should be flying late. NODOUBTABOUTIT (2) has been up for a long time but gets the right draw to get a soft run. Not sure she can upset the top two selections but is a mist for all exotics from the soft draw. FREEZE OVER (6) is consistent and may try and lead here, if not she will be on the speed and shouldn’t have to face the breeze. She was beaten as favourite last time here in a similar race, but wasn’t beaten far and she chased hard throughout.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 955m
Where to look here, as is usually the case in these 955m sprints. ALGADON MISS (12) won when resuming against the girls to get the maiden victory out of the way, she was big odds that day but showed plenty of speed. If she can get cover up on the speed over the short trip, she may have more upside than these. McGARRET (6) placed here three back in one of these when he was forced to make a long wide run. He got well back last time, a little concern that may be the case again here. If he stays with them early, look for him late.
MISTER MOGUL (2) resumed with a brilliant win at class 1 level, to fast he kicked clear into the straight and was way too quick. Drawn well, he looks to have come back well and should be on the bunny early. GOLDEN LUSTRE (1) rarely runs a bad race, she over-raced here last time and although she didn’t place, was beaten under a length.
Race 6: BM78 Handicap 2500m
NEGASI (9) has been racing very consistently this time in, forget that he has a 5th of 6 last start. He was over-racing before getting held-up and shuffled back to last and was never really clear through the line. He has good tactical speed and will go forward, if he can control the tempo, he should give a good kick at the top of the straight.
CREEDENCE (5) is very consistent but needs everything to go right with his racing pattern. He will get back and this is his first go around the Valley, he looks a good lay if at the top of the market. TOP OF THE RANGE (3) gets the blinkers back on, chased hard at his first look at the track to just miss last time. Look for him late if the speed is on. CHARLEVOIX (1) will also get back and keep grinding away.
Race 7: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2040m
CRIMSON TEARS (2) has the inside gate, one of the Weir cast-offs that has not missed a place in 5 career starts. She started close to even money across the border against the boys last time, ran on well in a race where the tempo didn’t suit. If she hasn’t missed a beat through the scandal and stable change, she looks very well in here, even with the weight,
WEE GILLY (1) wasn’t far away in a bunched finish last time, that can quite often be a red light going forward but that was a much harder race than this. Likely to get back, look for him late. DIAMOND BOW (6) has been up for a long time, she doesn’t have a lot of acceleration but will keep coming in the straight. INDRABEEL (11) is still yet to win out of maiden grade but has run a stack of placings, not sure where she will get to in the run from the wide draw, but she has the talent.
Race 8: BM64 Handicap 1523m
TOUR DOWN UNDER (4) has good natural speed, from the good draw, expect that he will go forward early and try to lead all the way. He won two in a row before going for a 6-week break, resumed at Caulfield in a harder race where he sat outside the leader before getting overhauled late in a race that suited the swoopers.
GASWORX (6) is also an on pacer that will try to lead, he is racing well, he looked the winner at Sandown last time when he kicked clear but was run down late. If he can cross and get to the rails first, he will be hard to run down. If those two don’t get their own way in front, the winner could come from anywhere. FAST PLAN (3) will be giving them a start and if they do go at each other up front, look for him late. WAITING FOR A MATE (5) drops back in grade from his nice effort at Flemington last time, he had every chance that day, go on his two wins to kick off this campaign when up on the speed.