Flemington Racing Tips – Sat May 18
We will be at Flemington this Saturday.
Track: Good 4. Rail: True
Best Bet: Race 5 – BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER
Race 1: Super VOBIS Plate 2YO Set Weights and Penalties
LA LUCCIOLA (7) has had one career run which was here up the straight, that is a big advantage over these babies that have not been here before. She was well backed from double figures in, settled just in behind the speed before running on well out wide. Drawn in close is a little concern always as the trend is to come up the middle to outside these days.
LEVEN LASS (5) won an easier start at Bendigo last time, she was held-up along the inside before getting the run and was strong through the line. THE PUGILIST (3) was runner-up at both of his starts across the border in SA, both runs have been huge. At his debut he was very wide on the speed without cover and not beaten far, then was held-up on multiple occasions last time before hitting the line well. INDEPENDENT ROAD (2) was good on debut after being held-up in the same race as Leven Lass on debut, drawn out wide will be no disadvantage.
Race 2: Fillies and Mares BM84 Handicap 1400m
TRULY DISCREET (1) looks well in back against the girls here, she was beaten almost 5 lengths at Group Two level last time in SA. She was very wide throughout and weakened in the straight, expect her to go forward from the wide draw and be on the speed. She gets a good claim with Kayla Crowther claiming two also.
OCEAN DEEP (2) was a good winner at this level last time, like the top tip she is drawn wide and will go forward. They will both need to find a spot early as the 1400m here at HQ is brutal if you are caught wide. MY BIDDY (5) is one that is better drawn and will also go forward, she can lead all the way. JOSEPHINE SEA (6) comes through the same race as her, she was good late along the inside which may not have been the best place to be on that track.
Race 3: Handicap 1000m
MISS LEONIDAS (3) comes back to the 100m up the straight after getting run down at 6 furlongs at Caulfield around the bend last time. She was a Listed winner the start prior, she has the speed to be on the pace at the 1000m also and drawn out wide looks ideal.
BANDIPUR (2) has a terrific overall record, goes well up the straight and is a last start winner here. There has already been a winner come out of that race, I just feel that the top pick will have the length advantage over him in the run. INVINCIBLE AL (4) was good in that same race as Bandipur up the straight last time and really hit the line hard. He has a super record second-up and will be flying late. SUPER HARD (6) goes well here and will also be giving them a start.
Race 4: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 1400m
SEBERATE (2) has been very consistent this time in, his run at Morphetville was amazing at Listed level last time. He was three-wide without cover throughout, not far off the pace and kept coming through the line. He was beaten under a length at the finish and was huge in defeat. He has the good draw for the 1400m here and will be on the speed for a long way.
BIG NIGHT OUT (3) has the inside draw which may be a little tricky as he will get back, he will get the soft run and run on hard if the breaks come. I like Micky Dee riding as he won’t be taking the cute option and be looking for luck like bigger name jocks sometimes are guilty of. SPIELBERG (4) will get back and run on out wide, BOOTS TARRINGTON (5) may be big odds and is only lightly raced, he gets the blinkers for the first time and was ok at the Bool although well beaten.
Race 5: BM78 Handicap 1400m
BEEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (9) is going through the grades nicely this prep, he has won three in a row and has been so impressive at all three. Last time at Sandown he settled 2nd, cruised to the front early in the straight and ran away to bolt in by more than 6 lengths. The fourth horse form that race has since come out and won at 78 level and the third horse has been runner-up at its latest. It looks a good form reference, did I mention he won by 6.5 lengths!
PERSIAN EMPIRE (15) will be on the speed for a long way, he tried to lead throughout here last time over a mile and didn’t run it out. SUNDAY PREY (6) won that race and also comes back in trip, he had to sit outside the speed and fought hard all the way down the straight. He has been up a while now and was big odds last time. SEE ME FLY (5) drops in grade, he wasn’t disgraced last time when wide without cover throughout, he will need a tip-top ride though from the horror draw.
Race 6: 3YO Fillies BM78 Handicap 1600m
FIDELIA (2) has won his last two, he wasn’t entitled to get up last start here at the track. He was held-up at a vital stage before getting to the outside at the clock tower, flying home late he got up in the last few strides. Stepping up to the mile should be ideal.
SURE KNEE (1) is an interesting runner dropping back from the Oaks trip in SA last time, she saved ground and improved not far off them in the straight but didn’t really run out the 2000m. MRS SIPPY (10) may get out to a crazy price with the wide draw and a duck egg in the form guide, forget she went around though last time after being held-up most of the straight and pulled up lame. PUTTING ON AIRS (11) is also horribly drawn, she was super in the same race the top pick won here last time after over-racing. If the speed is on, she will settle better, don’t be shocked to see her run on hard.
Race 7: Super VOBIS 3YO Handicap 2000m
Where to look here! Good luck for Quaddie players! Most of the chances are drawn horribly which will make this a curious betting affair. DECLARES WAR (1) is one that is drawn to get a soft run, he had no luck here last time when held-up for a furling and then when clear, ran on again late before having no room over the last 50m.
LIGULATE (7) is drawn horribly, he was so brave after sticking on well after a three-wide run without cover last time. ELUSIVE ROSE (11) will be big odds over from Mt Gambier but her win their last time was huge. She was well back before accelerating well to lead at the furlong and ran away for a 5-length win. P RISM (13) was wide throughout and didn’t shirk the task here last time behind an impressive winner.
Race 8: Handicap 1400m
I could make a case for all of these in what looks another very tough leg of the Quaddie.
FASTNET TEMPEST (2) finally put it all together here at the track last time, he was held-up early in the straight, got clear and dashed to the front and although laying in, did enough.
All of them? SPANNER HEAD (11) charged home late to narrowly miss at Caulfield last start, she has plenty of experience here at the track. MR MARATHON MAN (3) was ok at his first Oz start in the Wangoom at the Bool, he was only getting warmed up late after almost a year off and travelling halfway across the globe.
GALAXY RAIDER (12) ran on hard here fresh last start, first-up is not usually his go so he has come back well. Look for him late.
Race 9: Handicap 2000m
PACODALI (3) chased hard behind MANTASTIC (4) last time, the talented Theodore Nugent goes on with a good claim and draws to get a very soft run. He races well here at the track winning his previous two to last start, the jockey change can see the result reversed. Mantastic was super in that win but did have the right set-up, everything needs to go right again carrying the extra weight. WILLI WILLI (8) was good in the Wagga Cup but did have every chance, he is a two-time winner here at the track. OUR PEAKY BLINDERS (13) was ok at the Bool, he will keep coming in the straight but won’t want it turned into a sit-sprint.