Cranbourne Racing Tips – Wed Aug 7
We will be at Cranbourne this Wednesday.
Track: Soft 6. Rail: Out 7m entire circuit.
Best Bet: Race 3 – SO HE RULES
Race 1: 3YO Maiden Plate 1200m
Plenty of unknowns here and no confidence at all. Of those that have raced previously, PURE LEGEND (4) is of most interest. He was ok on debut way back in the Summer before going to the paddock and leaving the Snowden yard, now with John Sadler. The blinkers come off and a big watch on the betting, as with all of these. THE LIFELINE (5) is a Waterhouse/Bott runner that debuted at Muswellbrook and was ok off a tough run, he has been gelded since then. Watch for any money for those on debut, in particular DREAMS AND SCHEMES (3) and STRONG PRIDE (9). Tough start to the day.
Race 2: Maiden Plate 1500m
TROLLEYED (15) is a 3YOP gelding from the Busuttin/Young yard that debuted at Cranbourne three weeks ago. The track that day was as heavy as they come, he was in behind the leaders and was strong through the line to go down by the narrowest margin. He was favoured with the tempo of the race, getting out in trip looks to be advantageous.
Obviously there can be some sharp improvers here so not a lot of confidence. INFLUENTIAL JACK (14) was wide throughout in a harder race last time but didn’t shirk the task, he draws to get a much more economical run here.
HONOUR ME (13) debuted in that same race and had no luck when the runs come, just hard to see him getting a spot from the extreme draw. CHASE ON THE CASE (12) is an ex-Tasmanian that was ok at his first run on the mainland, that was on the synthetic where he showed a good turn-of-foot.
Race 3: Maiden Plate 1300m
SO HE RULES (4) is one for the trial spies, he debuted back in the late Spring, was sent to the paddock and resumed at Bendigo almost three months ago. He wasn’t beaten far and raced very tight, arguably he should have finished closer. He has jumped out well and I expect him to be well backed.
DEGRASSE (1) was racing consistently last prep, he looks a big improver off his two horrible runs this time in. They have been on the synthetic and a Heavy 9, he should appreciate this track better.
LA MER CELTIQUE (10) has placed at three of her four starts, all of them in this first prep. She has good tactical speed but may have to use up too much fuel early from the wide gate. The spot outside the leader looks hers. HE’S THE REAL DEAL (13) was ok on debut on the synthetic making some ground from the back in a race where the tempo didn’t suit. Onto the turf for the first time, he looks a smokey for the exotics.
Race 4: BM70 Handicap 1300m
MAKE IT COUNT (2) is looking for four wins in a row, a maiden winner of the carnival at the Bool, then ran on well at Moe at 64 grade before showing his versatility winning on the heavy track last time. He gets up in grade and the weights again but continues to get it done. He maps well, stepping up in trip also expect that he will be camped on the leaders early.
There only looks a couple. CASINO FOURTEEN (1) gets the winkers on for the first time, if he finds the top, he will be hard to run down. He sat outside the leader in a harder race three back and bolted in, just has to carry the big weight.
LA VOLT (3) looks the other horse that will be vying for the lead, if those two get in a speed battle then the top pick looks a good thing. If they walk in front and they sit 1-2 in the run, they will be hard to get past. Last start winner MISS ENTICE (9) next best but her in for the exotics only.
Race 5: BM64 Handicap 1000m
YULONG STAR (5) and TRILLI (6) look the two here. I think the former has more potential bu the latter does have the fitness edge on her side. Yulong Star won twice last start, she has good tactical speed and should position up very handy. She may just need luck getting off the rails when the runs come. Trilli on the other hand will be giving them a start, she is still yet to win out of maiden grade but was very good through the line in a harder race against the girls last time. GERMANOTTA (8) won her maiden fresh this campaign, she then was ok on the speed on the synthetic and got too far back last time and was never in it. THIRD COMING (9) is resuming, she has been runner-up at both her other two fresh runs and has good tactical speed. She must be thrown into all exotics, especially if there is some money late for her.
Race 6: BM64 Handicap 1500m
The toughest race of the day and you will need to play very wide in the Quaddie.
SEBEAT (4) will likely be double figure odds, he has good speed, looks the leader and has been very consistent. See how the track is playing early in the day, if it favouring front-runners, he looks a great each-way bet.
DO YOU RECKON (5) is the other horse that will be trying to get on the bunny early, he was outclassed at Flemington last time but looks better suited here. TAIKUN WARRIOR (8) was favoured the way the race was run when resuming, he hit the line well. He had been very consistent at the back-end of his last campaign, he may just need one more run. I am not sure where STRIPPING ROYALTY (9) will get to in the run, she likes to be on the speed but there is plenty of pace underneath her and the blinkers go on for the first time.
Race 7: BM64 Handicap 1200m
MUZZLEFLASH (5) has shown plenty of speed in his only two starts, he led all the way on a heavy track on debut to win at Geelong, then went to a Class 1 there and again led but was eased to 2nd, did nothing in the run home but did appear in the steward’s report with a problem. If he can land on the bunny again here, this doesn’t look a strong 64 and he may be able to pinch it in conditions that should suit.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA (2) is still yet to win out of maiden grade, he has placed at his last three and handles the wet tracks well. With his pattern of racing though getting back, he always needs everything to go right. STRONG INFLUENCE (3) was beaten as a very short priced favourite last start, that was in this grade and although he found the line ok, he had no excuses. He gets another chance here. COSMIC RUBY (7) has had three runs back, all on the heavy tracks, she needs to settle better than what she has been.
Race 8: Fillies and Mares BM70 Handicap 2060m
SPENSIERATO (8) ran on hard two back on the very heavy track at Cranbourne to score at 64 grade, she then went to Caulfield in a much harder race and ran on hard when the tempo didn’t suit. She looks well in this grade with the 56kg, out to the trip for the first time is the only worry but the way she has been attacking the line it looks right up her alley.
WILD SEA (13) may be an improver with the blinkers on for the first time, she has worked home well at her last couple and did have excuses last time pulling up with a cough. KAJAANI (7) is very consistent, she has won two of her last three when coming from well back> She will be giving them a start but has shown she can adapt to all conditions and just needs the right horse to follow into it. MUSIC OF THE NIGHT (4) placed two in a row at Sandown before a disappointing effort in this grade there last time. She is better than that and should run on hard.